Has Anthony Edwards Surpassed Jayson Tatum?

[tsherkin]

Ant is a very rare type of player that transforms into a completely different beast come play off (big games for that matter...next year when the Wolves are all over national TV more people will wake up) time.

Well, some of it is that he has just shot considerably better in the playoffs, yeah?

So for example, this season, he was a 46.1/35.7/83.6 guy during the RS, right? So far in the playoffs, 53.2/43.6/86.5.

Drilling home, in the RS he shot 44.5 / 44.0 / 33.0 from 3-10, 10-16 and 16-23 feet. In the PS so far, 53.8 / 45.5 / 69.2.

This sort of thing is the genesis of the "let's wait and see over a long run" type of conversation that comes up a bit with him, because that isn't really likely to be sustainable over an extended run. Some parts more obviously than others, and differing in proportion. So like the 69% he is shooting from 16-23 is obviously going to drop, but that's also only 10% of his total shooting volume. And he's also shooting under 67% from 0-3 feet, and shot over 70% there during the RS, so...

He definitely plays with a different gear, though, and like I said earlier, he IS also showing year to year improvement in the RS.

I made fun of Kobe because his advanced stats were never overwhelmingly elite but the man was always a winner.

I mean, they kind of were. They didn't line up with some of the other "very best players in the history of the game" kind of deal, sure, but like, post-Shaq he was very specifically and clearly the engine behind 3 straight Finals runs and repeat titles. Him and Gasol, that was a nasty dynamic.

I agree that he is too reliant on the 3PT shot. This is probably where the whole Ime situation screwed the Celtics to some extent, because I feel like he was pushing him more into the high post, which is where Tatum’s game needs to get to to be more consistent, imo.

It's a very common thing in today's game, of course, it's just exaggerated with Tatum because he's below average from 3 feet out to the 3pt line, which makes him a very high-variance guy.

League average in 2024 is 45.2 / 44.5 / 40.7 from 3-10, 10-16 and 16-23 feet. He's at 44.1 / 38.9 / 39.7. That 10-16 foot space is a real killer in terms of being able to float his scoring when the 3 isn't falling.

I will say that this is the first time in his career that the Celtics were better with him off the court than on, which is why I think the whole argument that the Celtics have been stacked for his whole career kind of funny. They have been very good teams, sure, but the Celtics have typically fallen apart without him on the court…until this season.

I think there's maybe a disconnect there. Most people, when they discuss the depth of the team, aren't trying to say that the Celtics would be better without him. They're discussing the reasoning behind the team success. You have a good player with EXCELLENT depth and you get very strong results, but that can sometimes oversell the value of the good player, yeah? Obviously, there's a baseline of talent and skill expression which must be considered independent of roster, but like, I think people look at "lead scorer on very good team" and develop an immediate profile of where that dude should rank. It's pretty clear, for example, that Tatum is quite good... it's not about saying otherwise, it's about trying to check what tier he's being compared to.

[thinktank]

I think so, he's been better on both sides of the floor and he's showing he can be a 1 option for a title team.

Ant isn't better on the defensive end. He's also not been proven to be a better scorer, outside of 6 playoff games.

Tatum also has had multiple big time clutch elimination games.

Ant will be better..but it isn't this year. He and the Wolves get smoked by the Celtics if they get to the finals.

LOL. We smoked Boston this year already and then took them to OT when we weren’t even healthy.

[Klomp]

I think some of Tatum's perceptions could be because the NBA casual is getting bored with him. This is his seventh season. He's been to the playoffs every year. The Celtics have been a No. 1 or 2 seed five times. And to this point, Tatum has no hardware to show for it. At this point, maybe he's just on the level of a Reggie Miller?

Just FYI, Tatum after this season has already surpassed Miller in all NBA teams, and he is only 26. Never mind the fact that Miller never made it beyond all NBA third team, and Tatum has made it to the first team 3 times. He’s also matched Miller in all star appearances already.

That is interesting, thanks.

[GiannisAnte34]

Tatum has had significantly better teams than Reggie or Rudy, that's all it really is with him

If any team in the league is a super team this year, it's Boston. So if the Celtics don't win again when they should, how good is Tatum really?

[robbie84]

Ant has been my favourite non Celtic player this season. Naz Reid is a beast too. Ant has MVP potential...his play this offseason reminds me of Dwayne Wade with Shaq. If this Wolves team can get to the finals and Amt plays like this for the whole offseason, he's auto top 5-8 material and arguably as good if not better than Tatum.
So no, he's not better than Tatum yet, but he's coming for the whole top 8 players in the NBA this playoffs.

Side note: Tatum's taken another leap this year- his passing and awareness of his team mates has immensely improved.
Tatum has become a true facilitator this season. Numbers are slightly down but his team is so stacked, his attention and talent allow all the other killers on his team to eat.

Great example was Derrick White's ballin' against the Heat. Tatum touches the ball, the Heat send two at him immediately- Tatum is ready for it and his team mates know he's gonna reward them if they get to their spot.

Ant is certainly.coming for Tatum tho. We need another super dooper star and ANT could be it.

[NDaATL]

It's too early in the playoffs to say that Ant is some great playoff performer. He's only played 1 2nd round playoff game in his career. Let's see how his numbers hold up if they go further. He is going to have some bad games or a bad matchup at some point. Wait until he has a bad game and has to deal with the adversity. Then the mental side kicks in and it's harder.

We've seen Tatum play 100 playoff games and make 4 ECF/2 finals runs, so we've seen him have bad games.

Edwards will have some bad games too.

So the answer is absolutely no he hasn't passed Tatum. I think he has the ability to, but he just hasn't advanced far enough yet and Tatums numbers and efficiency clobbers Edwards right now, outside of 15 first round playoff games.

[dolphinatik]

Geat question op. Imma say yes he has. Doing it on both ends while being the clear leader of the team. Built like a train he looks invincible out there. Polarizing he displays genuine joy and emotion while playing. That is not to by underrated and something I look for in players, how much do they want to be there in that moment. Most NBA players have Tatum in the top five, they have a totally different smile when you bring up Ant.

[tsherkin]

Strong first quarter for Tatum. Quite the opposite in the second half and he was only 2/5 in the second, as well. Boston in general quieted down, shooting under 40% on the half. 38.1% and 35.3% in the 3rd and 4th quarters (and they were 3/9 and 2/7 from 3, not like they were bombing away). Cleveland just didn't have the punch to score and get back into it well enough.

A fair bit of rim-or-3, as usual.

Still ended up with 33/11/5, on 57% TS. They weathered the Cavs' first-quarter push and then just watched Cleveland fade even harder than they did the rest of the way. I keep finding myself wishing Tatum had more of a middle game for when this sort of situation plays out,but it did not burn them this time. And he was incendiary in the first quarter, which helped put the Cavs out of it to begin with, so that was nice.

Ant has still been electric as a scorer, of course. He bounced back nicely from Game 3, even if Minny didn't win. Still an interesting comparison to watch, particularly as these playoffs unfold.

[TheNG]

Actually both are hard to evaluate as they both play in great teams with a lot of talent and depth.
Since Tatum joined them, the Celtics never over-achieved. They didn't win anything and never did more than expected.
Ant has smaller sample side. I thik he was good in the US national team and I think the Timberwolves exceeded the expectations this year, even if they lose this series.

So I give the slight edge to Ant. But we will only be able to evaluate both careers when will see them play in lesser conditions (or just win some rings with all the talent around them)

[tsherkin]

So I give the slight edge to Ant. But we will only be able to evaluate both careers when will see them play in lesser conditions (or just win some rings with all the talent around them)

Tatum has been showing us who he is for some time now, but he's still somehow only 25. He's got plenty of prime years left to develop and what-not.

We saw some consequential alterations to MJ's game in his 30s, after all. Building on what he'd already done, and I'm not comparing the two directly only making the remark about later development. So we shall see what goes on with JT. He's a very good player and he's at the front of a very good team which may well title this year. And he'll have been a large part of that if and when it happens, no doubt.

Ant is even younger, and his biggest issue right now appears to be playing in the RS the way he does in the PS. That could be worse, of course, it could be the opposite problem. So we'll see what happens with him, but he's basically still a child, he's not even 23. He's only been legally able to drink for less than two years, heh. He's got a lot of potential upside in him as well.

[Tha Cynic]

Tatums reputation has taken a bit of a hit this year because he changed his mindset to allow the other dudes to eat.

It’s a shame there aren’t many that recognise this. Too many box score watchers.

I would say boxscore watchers are who put Tatum up at the top. He's more of a secondary star than a legit superstar. The reason the Celtics haven't won it all up to this point even with a stacked team for years is because they don't have a legit superstar. He and Brown are pretty close in terms of impact.

Also what's up with the incorrect age being thrown around? Tatum is 26 and will be 27 in his next season. He will be in his prime next season.

[tsherkin]

Tatums reputation has taken a bit of a hit this year because he changed his mindset to allow the other dudes to eat.

It’s a shame there aren’t many that recognise this. Too many box score watchers.

That doesn't make any kind of sense. Taking 1 or 2 fewer FGA/g isn't really a huge change. He was still a 27 ppg player during the RS; his 26.9 ppg was 7th in the league during the RS. There is no meaningful difference as a result of his change to "allow the other dudes to eat." The problem with him isn't scoring volume. Yes, he's shooting a little less than even that and, as a result, scoring less during the playoffs. But that isn't a problem. He's adaptable, and he's not gung-ho to just shoot and never change that mentality, which is a strength, not a weakness.

The issue with Tatum has always been that he is spoken of by some as an impact player offensively to a degree which doesn't match the first tier of such players in the league. He isn't the kind of dynamic playmaker we see from some, he isn't the hyper-efficient volume scorer we from some, and he certainly isn't the two together as we see from time to time. He's a well-rounded player who does a lot of things very well, and he is one of the best two-way players in the league. If the Cavs were whole, this conversation might have a different tone after he went 5/16 (1/5 3P) after the first quarter in that last game, when he struggled again once his 3pt shot wasn't falling and when he couldn't get all the way to the rim. He's very good, but from the offensive side of things, he isn't a first-tier scoring threat, which creates a bit of an upper bound until/unless that changes. Naturally, that means only so much, because his average performance is still very good, and even when his shot isn't falling, he's an excellent defender. I don't want to crap on him, just to illustrate the debate surrounding him.

The issue was never about watching the box score and more about understanding that he sits below the so to speak S tier of offensive players in the league, but is discussed as if he participates in it. That's all.

I would say boxscore watchers are who put Tatum up at the top. He's more of a secondary star than a legit superstar. The reason the Celtics haven't won it all up to this point even with a stacked team for years is because they don't have a legit superstar. He and Brown are pretty close in terms of impact.

Superstars are rare, so I don't begrudge him that. It's a label which sometimes gets tossed around a little loosely, IMHO. There aren't typically more than a handful in the league at any given time, I'd suggest. Perhaps less than even that.

Tatum is pretty close in the sense that he is a high-end defender who moves the ball well and can score reasonably well in volume. He's like a +2% rTS guy in the RS. He's been struggling in this postseason and is a -2.8% rTS guy relative to PS average (and has had only 2 out of 9 games where he's met or exceeded league postseason average), which has been troublesome. He has been completely incapable of hitting 3s (26.3% 3P) but is still bombing away from there (though less, on average, than in the RS), and he's been about 4% worse than his RS performance inside the arc as well. That, in the main, has come on short shots just shy of the RA, where he's under 38%, shooting some 6% worse than in the RS.

But yeah, what he lacks is elite offense. He is, instead, a disciple of the "very good."

Cleveland is a very good defense, and Tatum will eventually stop shooting like an absolute dumpster fire from 3. He's only had 2 competent 3pt shooting games so far this postseason, and he's generally a pretty good 3pt shooter, so I have to be careful how much I lay into him, heh. Undoubtedly, next game he is going to go like 4/8 from 3 and put 40 on the Cavs to close them out, you know what I mean? He's been on a 9-game stinker streak from 3 which I'm waiting to see normalize pretty soon. He's so heavily reliant upon the 3, though (like many these days), that his variance is considerable and he isn't Steph from 3.

So we'll see. WRT Tatum vs. Ant, they both have their wrinkles and weaknesses but are obviously both very good players who are still up and coming.

[life_saver]

Actually both are hard to evaluate as they both play in great teams with a lot of talent and depth.
Since Tatum joined them, the Celtics never over-achieved. They didn't win anything and never did more than expected.
Ant has smaller sample side. I thik he was good in the US national team and I think the Timberwolves exceeded the expectations this year, even if they lose this series.

So I give the slight edge to Ant. But we will only be able to evaluate both careers when will see them play in lesser conditions (or just win some rings with all the talent around them)

Offensively, Celtic have lot more talent than Wolves...Celtics can roll out a starting lineup where every player is a perimeter scoring threat, something Wolves clearly lack. Gobert is basically a zero scoring threat outside dunks and McDaniels is a below par shooter as of now and teams are ignoring him and leaving him open on perimeter.

[bledredwine]

Hell yeah.

I don't care what others think or how premature this is.
I've seen enough.

Now, "have the Wolves surpassed the Celtics" is another discussion.

[tsherkin]

Hell yeah.

I don't care what others think or how premature this is.
I've seen enough.

Based on what?

It's fair to argue that Ant is a better scorer in the playoffs than Tatum. There's still a lot more to this comparison and to basketball in general which remains open to discussion.

[bledredwine]

Hell yeah.

I don't care what others think or how premature this is.
I've seen enough.

Based on what?

It's fair to argue that Ant is a better scorer in the playoffs than Tatum. There's still a lot more to this comparison and to basketball in general which remains open to discussion.

Based on how ANT seems to step up during important moments on a consistent basis.
I link that with the ability to carry a squad. I've seen Tatum fail this so many times.
He's just too inconsistent.

I've wanted Tatum to prove me wrong because I want as many superstars who step it up as possible.
But I'm not a believer. Hopefully, he proves me wrong this year. The East has not been helpful
for him being battle tested either.

Statistically? The PER numbers aren't even close this playoffs or last year's playoffs, which confirms what I've seen;
ANT has a remarkable ability to withstand pressure and great defense. He's simply more unguardable.
I don't see this from Tatum.

[CoP]

Love Ant as a player.

If we are going to look at Ant's playoff performance thus far, I think this question could be asked of a lot of players, not just Tatum. You could at least start with guards, too. Has he surpassed Donovan Mitchell? Lillard? Booker? Butler? Harden? Murray? Hali? SGA?

There's really no need to make this about Edwards vs. Tatum, imo. What's ended up happening is the thread has really turned into people talking about Tatum alone, when really it would be better if it was just a recalibration of Edwards as a player. A lot of Wolves fans have said during the season that they weren't crazy about Edwards' usage late in games, that he tries too much to be the hero and that it often backfires. For the most part, that hasn't happened these playoffs, but we're only 1.5 rounds into the playoffs, too.

I think Edwards' ceiling is super, super high.

[tsherkin]

Based on how ANT seems to step up during important moments on a consistent basis.
I link that with the ability to carry a squad. I've seen Tatum fail this so many times.
He's just too inconsistent.

I've wanted Tatum to prove me wrong because I want as many superstars who step it up as possible.
But I'm not a believer. Hopefully, he proves me wrong this year.

Well, this is Ant's first opportunity to do it in the second round, so I guess we'll see how it plays out from here on forward, for sure. It's definitely an important season.

It is worth mentioning that Tatum's defense and rebounding do stay fairly consistent; there's a pretty heavy scoring bias in how you're approaching this comparison, which is something to keep in mind and that circles back to what I said earlier. It's pretty clear that Ant has more of a scoring game inside the arc and away from the RA, which helps him be a more effective PS scorer, for sure. But that is only part of the game.

[GrandTheftRondo]

Tatums reputation has taken a bit of a hit this year because he changed his mindset to allow the other dudes to eat.

It’s a shame there aren’t many that recognise this. Too many box score watchers.

I would say boxscore watchers are who put Tatum up at the top. He's more of a secondary star than a legit superstar. The reason the Celtics haven't won it all up to this point even with a stacked team for years is because they don't have a legit superstar. He and Brown are pretty close in terms of impact.

Also what's up with the incorrect age being thrown around? Tatum is 26 and will be 27 in his next season. He will be in his prime next season.

Secondary star, stacked teams, Brown is similar.

All the usual BS arguments

Never seen people make so many dishonest arguments about a player like they do with Tatum.

[bledredwine]

Based on how ANT seems to step up during important moments on a consistent basis.
I link that with the ability to carry a squad. I've seen Tatum fail this so many times.
He's just too inconsistent.

I've wanted Tatum to prove me wrong because I want as many superstars who step it up as possible.
But I'm not a believer. Hopefully, he proves me wrong this year.

Well, this is Ant's first opportunity to do it in the second round, so I guess we'll see how it plays out from here on forward, for sure. It's definitely an important season.

It is worth mentioning that Tatum's defense and rebounding do stay fairly consistent; there's a pretty heavy scoring bias in how you're approaching this comparison, which is something to keep in mind and that circles back to what I said earlier. It's pretty clear that Ant has more of a scoring game inside the arc and away from the RA, which helps him be a more effective PS scorer, for sure. But that is only part of the game.

I wouldn't call it a scoring bias, though you're right that I prioritize scoring.

I just believe that all of the greatest or near all of the greatest championship teams have an elite scorer.
Lebron, Dirk, Wade, MJ, Kobe, Duncan, Shaq, etc.

I do consider assist numbers overrated and inflated in the PER metric, and in general in the current era in particular.
We can't call that a bias though- I'm very analytical as a musician, chess player and boxer. That's just what I see
and the correlations that I've made with winning.

You see a Dirk as a number one option but generally not a Rondo or Jason Kidd.

Scoring is important in the playoffs because the greatest show that they can get buckets in pressure situations.
In those situations when defense clamps up, you're generally not going to want your supporting cast to take the pressure shots unless they're on fire. Playoffs are a general version of that scenario. Everyone's important, but an unstoppable scorer provides a consistency in the greatness of the team.