2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 4: Who is the MVP?)

[MMyhre]

If the Warriors overtake the Nuggets in the standings by the end of the season, I'm saying Steph.

I detect no bias here. It shall be done

[Snake3]

Meant to say 6th in defense *last* year without a particularly talented defensive supporting cast

Ah I see. I'm seeing 8th, but you might have access to more accurate stats than me. 6th or 8th, those defenses are good but not elite.

I'd also say that last years defensive supporting cast is definitely a step up from this years. Many more AG games, and then KCP who was the teams best defender.

Take away these stronger components of the defense and you run in to the specific problem that I am highlighting. That Jokic has defensive weaknesses that can be attacked.

We are talking about the ease or difficulty of team building around Jokic. If all you need to build a top 10 defense around Jokic is someone like KCP and Gordon (both good but not particularly notable defenders) then that doesn’t seem like a particularly onerous team building requirement. Again it’s not like Jokic had a particularly talented defensive supporting cast in 2024

You definitely need to surround him with good solid defensive players and one all-star to get the best you can. And 3pt shooting. But it's easier said than done obviously.

I'm shocked that Denver is even top 3 in the West right now.

It does look bleak from the FOs in Denver tho. I don't think they can pull a great roster around Jokic like that in the future.Their moves are limited. They set themselves on counting on their young players that could contribute off the bench.

OKC though, they have it good. Tons of assets. Young players too that could develop. They did a great job at constructing their roster.

[Doranku]

Kinda wild to me that Jokic is winning the poll. The Thunder are TWELVE games ahead in the standings. Denver's top 3 guys have been healthy all year. Chet missed 40+ games. JDub just went down, SGA responds by leading OKC to a road win against the defending champions (now 5-0 without JDub this season).

Jokic is having a historic season, sure. So is SGA. Find me the last player to drop 33 a game and lead a team to 65 wins. You won't find him. 33 on 65% TS btw. Unprecedented efficiency/volume from a guard, all while playing elite defense.

Love Jokic, guy is a basketball savant, but it would be a travesty if SGA doesn't win the award this year.

[RRR3]

Kinda wild to me that Jokic is winning the poll. The Thunder are TWELVE games ahead in the standings. Denver's top 3 guys have been healthy all year. Chet missed 40+ games. JDub just went down, SGA responds by leading OKC to a road win against the defending champions (now 5-0 without JDub this season).

Jokic is having a historic season, sure. So is SGA. Find me the last player to drop 33 a game and lead a team to 65 wins. You won't find him. 33 on 65% TS btw. Unprecedented efficiency/volume from a guard, all while playing elite defense.

Love Jokic, guy is a basketball savant, but it would be a travesty if SGA doesn't win the award this year.

This board overrates Jokic to an absurd degree. The only argument he has is box score stats, SGA has been leading in impact stats...

[Snake3]

nah, this says more about how silly you can get with stats. this graphic is worthless. at least put SGA in there or something.

SGA ain't generating the rebounds or assists like that. You can see his Ortg on/off numbers tho. It's +13.

Jokic is +21. It's pretty crazy. It's pretty consistent across the board offensively.

SGA brings it more defensively. That's where he catches up with Jokic in terms of impact. Although there is still a difference with on/off the court metrics in favor of Jokic. SGA brings it when it comes to other advance numbers as they are either tied or SGA is leading or Jokic. Neither have crazy lead on another.

But in terms of offense, Jokic is stunning. This also shows how bad the teammates are at generating the offense. It could be the coach or the teammates in general. I don't know.

It’s because the team is so used to playing a certain way, that it throws them off when they have to change it up. Over reliance on one player is not a good strategy in the long run. We’ve seen the same thing over the years with Nash, Lebron, Harden, ect. Other players need to be empowered by the star more.

Y’know the thing that’s in common with those stars is that the ball is mostly in their hand when it comes to time of possession. Jokic isn’t like that. He makes quick reads. It’s crazy.

But you’re right, the team being over reliance on one player isn’t ideal. It’s definitely one of their issues. It might due to the coach or the talent. Not sure. It is one of many issues with the team. But the main one is the defense.

[Special_Puppy]

Ah I see. I'm seeing 8th, but you might have access to more accurate stats than me. 6th or 8th, those defenses are good but not elite.

I'd also say that last years defensive supporting cast is definitely a step up from this years. Many more AG games, and then KCP who was the teams best defender.

Take away these stronger components of the defense and you run in to the specific problem that I am highlighting. That Jokic has defensive weaknesses that can be attacked.

We are talking about the ease or difficulty of team building around Jokic. If all you need to build a top 10 defense around Jokic is someone like KCP and Gordon (both good but not particularly notable defenders) then that doesn’t seem like a particularly onerous team building requirement. Again it’s not like Jokic had a particularly talented defensive supporting cast in 2024

You definitely need to surround him with good solid defensive players and one all-star to get the best you can. And 3pt shooting. But it's easier said than done obviously.

I'm shocked that Denver is even top 3 in the West right now.

It does look bleak from the FOs in Denver tho. I don't think they can pull a great roster around Jokic like that in the future.Their moves are limited. They set themselves on counting on their young players that could contribute off the bench.

OKC though, they have it good. Tons of assets. Young players too that could develop. They did a great job at constructing their roster.

Every championship contender is going to have a solid defensive supporting cast and 2+ All-Star level players (and if not you better have a ton of depth). That’s not a Jokic particular constraint.

[Special_Puppy]

Kinda wild to me that Jokic is winning the poll. The Thunder are TWELVE games ahead in the standings. Denver's top 3 guys have been healthy all year. Chet missed 40+ games. JDub just went down, SGA responds by leading OKC to a road win against the defending champions (now 5-0 without JDub this season).

Jokic is having a historic season, sure. So is SGA. Find me the last player to drop 33 a game and lead a team to 65 wins. You won't find him. 33 on 65% TS btw. Unprecedented efficiency/volume from a guard, all while playing elite defense.

Love Jokic, guy is a basketball savant, but it would be a travesty if SGA doesn't win the award this year.

This board overrates Jokic to an absurd degree. The only argument he has is box score stats, SGA has been leading in impact stats...

Jokic leads in DPM, X-RAPM, various RAPM various, Expected EPM, and BPM. SGA leads in actual EPM and LEBRON. I

[Special_Puppy]

I think at the end of the day if they end up in a dead heat SGA has 2 tiebreakers: team record, and the fact that he hasn’t won it already. It would be a slap in the face if he didn’t win with the season he’s had. Jokic has already had his day in the sun a few times.

You could argue that it would be a slap in the face for Jokic to not win it with the season he’s had lol. Either one of these seasons would be one of the best seasons ever that didn’t win MVP

[Big J]

I think at the end of the day if they end up in a dead heat SGA has 2 tiebreakers: team record, and the fact that he hasn’t won it already. It would be a slap in the face if he didn’t win with the season he’s had. Jokic has already had his day in the sun a few times.

You could argue that it would be a slap in the face for Jokic to not win it with the season he’s had lol. Either one of these seasons would be one of the best seasons ever that didn’t win MVP

Jokic already had 3 MVPs, so the slap wouldn’t be as bad. Plus Jokic doesn’t have that MJ instinct where he takes every slight personally.

[Johnny Firpo]

Kinda wild to me that Jokic is winning the poll. The Thunder are TWELVE games ahead in the standings. Denver's top 3 guys have been healthy all year. Chet missed 40+ games. JDub just went down, SGA responds by leading OKC to a road win against the defending champions (now 5-0 without JDub this season).

Jokic is having a historic season, sure. So is SGA. Find me the last player to drop 33 a game and lead a team to 65 wins. You won't find him. 33 on 65% TS btw. Unprecedented efficiency/volume from a guard, all while playing elite defense.

Love Jokic, guy is a basketball savant, but it would be a travesty if SGA doesn't win the award this year.

SGA is great, but the "find me the best player of the best team" argument is not great, because it is built on a fallacy. People think that most MVPs have been won by the best player on the best team, and that was the main reason, while it wasn't. It just happened to be that the best players in the league often played on the best teams, and the best teams often won the most games. Saying that it would be a travesty if SGA were to lose to this year's Jokic is the real travesty here. Also, weren't you incredibly critical towards SGA in the past based on the argument that he hasn't done anything in the playoffs yet? Because that is still kind of the case here (not saying you were right btw, I don't think this should have a relevance here, but just curious about why your stance have changed on that, because it clearly did).

[Castle Black]

[LeBronSpaghetti]

If the Warriors overtake the Nuggets in the standings by the end of the season, I'm saying Steph.

There isn’t a single rational argument for Steph over SGA

[guynumber45]

This is explaining the obvious, but if Jokic himself was a better defender (able to move on to the perimeter and able to protect the rim) then Denver's record would be closer to the Thunders than it is. If he could do even one of those two things, it would make building around Jokic far easier. It is simple to build an offense for him, given his spectacular playmaking and scoring. But building a defense around him is tough.

Shai, frankly, is easier to build around. He has no clear weakness for the parts of the game he is involved in. The things that he can't do (defend bigs in the paint, get double digit rebounds) inherently aren't his responsibility. It isn't the same for Jokic's weaknesses. OKC has chosen to crutch on Shai's immense offensive talent and surround him with defensive players and make a chain with no weak links. Because Shai is automatic buckets OKC only need J-Dub, Chet, and the role players to offer just enough on offense to keep it from being a problem (akin to Denver's defense).

There is a lot of value at just not having exploitable weaknesses. Just look at the success of Jayson Tatum. Easy to build around, and easy to win with. Shai is the same and we are seeing it in the win column, and that is I think the primary reason Shai will win MVP (despite Jokic's freak numbers).

Jokic is a superb, pantheon of the game level talent. Pointing out these weaknesses does not diminish what is self evident. But it does represent a real problem for the Nuggets. It emphasizes their reliance on Aaron Gordon. It shines a light on the poor team building that they don't have a rim protector on the bench. That they have given up assets for minimal benefit.

I actually agree with your overall sentiment that a Jokic-lead team has a certain ceiling because of his defensive limitations as a rim protector.

However, I do think the Nuggets in particular are poorly constructed to hide this weakness of Jokic. Murray and MPJ are not just bad defenders at their position, they are some of the worst defensive players in the NBA. I bet if you replaced MPJ with say Andrew Wiggins, the Nuggets defense could take a dramatic leap.

[RRR3]

Kinda wild to me that Jokic is winning the poll. The Thunder are TWELVE games ahead in the standings. Denver's top 3 guys have been healthy all year. Chet missed 40+ games. JDub just went down, SGA responds by leading OKC to a road win against the defending champions (now 5-0 without JDub this season).

Jokic is having a historic season, sure. So is SGA. Find me the last player to drop 33 a game and lead a team to 65 wins. You won't find him. 33 on 65% TS btw. Unprecedented efficiency/volume from a guard, all while playing elite defense.

Love Jokic, guy is a basketball savant, but it would be a travesty if SGA doesn't win the award this year.

This board overrates Jokic to an absurd degree. The only argument he has is box score stats, SGA has been leading in impact stats...

Jokic leads in DPM, X-RAPM, various RAPM various, Expected EPM, and BPM. SGA leads in actual EPM and LEBRON. I

BPM is not an impact stat.

[DrModesty]

Meant to say 6th in defense *last* year without a particularly talented defensive supporting cast

Ah I see. I'm seeing 8th, but you might have access to more accurate stats than me. 6th or 8th, those defenses are good but not elite.

I'd also say that last years defensive supporting cast is definitely a step up from this years. Many more AG games, and then KCP who was the teams best defender.

Take away these stronger components of the defense and you run in to the specific problem that I am highlighting. That Jokic has defensive weaknesses that can be attacked.

We are talking about the ease or difficulty of team building around Jokic. If all you need to build a top 10 defense around Jokic is someone like KCP and Gordon (both good but not particularly notable defenders) then that doesn’t seem like a particularly onerous team building requirement. Again it’s not like Jokic had a particularly talented defensive supporting cast in 2024

It was onerous enough that the Nuggets couldn't actually keep KCP. It would have put them in the 2nd apron, and we are seeing the whole league run away from that. Remember KCP was getting real consideration from All Defense voters last year. Gordon was too, at a lesser extent.

Also, 8th is... goodish? Not quite top quarter of the league. The year before with the same supporting cast the Nuggets were 15th. So if everyone is healthy and the chemistry is clicking they end up clearly above average. I said that Jokic is a slightly positive defender with components of his defense that need to be protected. You give him an borderline elite perimeter guard and a good defensive power forward then you should get above average results which is what they did.

But if you want to have that level of defense with and around Jokic consistently while maintaining the elite offense it suddenly gets quite difficult. You need to not have any bad contracts. You need to hit on late draft picks. You need good health for your important players. If you want to go beyond that and put an excellent defense around him, that actually is onerous. You can't get rid of Murray for a defensive upgrade without severely damaging your offense. Likewise for Michael Porter Junior. His shooting is critical.

Ultimately though you have focused in on one statement in the greater post. What I was talking about was a comparison between SGA and Jokic and the relative ease of building a team around them due to specific weaknesses Jokic has. Shai is a stronger 2 way player. I don't think anyone would argue that. Jokic clearly is better on offense. He probably is still the better overall player, though this year it isn't crazy to debate it.

But building around the guy who is masterful on offense and very good on defense is easier than building around the guy who is masterful on offense and average on defense. Especially when first guy can play either guard position (Shai even played SF for a year) and the second guy is exclusively a center due to his athletic capabilities. Shai's versatility and ability to force additional competitive advantages has real value. This sort of stuff gets guys bigger contracts. It puts them on the floor in more line ups. It makes them more portable to other situations. It makes succeeding with them easier.

[WarriorGM]

If the Warriors overtake the Nuggets in the standings by the end of the season, I'm saying Steph.

There isn’t a single rational argument for Steph over SGA

If there is a rational argument for Jokic over SGA, there is a rational argument for Steph.

[RRR3]

If the Warriors overtake the Nuggets in the standings by the end of the season, I'm saying Steph.

There isn’t a single rational argument for Steph over SGA

If there is a rational argument for Jokic over SGA, there is a rational argument for Steph.

Jokic is a lot better than Steph

[Special_Puppy]

Delete

[LeBronSpaghetti]

If the Warriors overtake the Nuggets in the standings by the end of the season, I'm saying Steph.

There isn’t a single rational argument for Steph over SGA

If there is a rational argument for Jokic over SGA, there is a rational argument for Steph.

Not even close. Jokic is multiple tiers better than Steph. Steph simply isn’t anywhere near an MVP caliber player at this point in his career.

[Special_Puppy]

Ah I see. I'm seeing 8th, but you might have access to more accurate stats than me. 6th or 8th, those defenses are good but not elite.

I'd also say that last years defensive supporting cast is definitely a step up from this years. Many more AG games, and then KCP who was the teams best defender.

Take away these stronger components of the defense and you run in to the specific problem that I am highlighting. That Jokic has defensive weaknesses that can be attacked.

We are talking about the ease or difficulty of team building around Jokic. If all you need to build a top 10 defense around Jokic is someone like KCP and Gordon (both good but not particularly notable defenders) then that doesn’t seem like a particularly onerous team building requirement. Again it’s not like Jokic had a particularly talented defensive supporting cast in 2024

It was onerous enough that the Nuggets couldn't actually keep KCP. It would have put them in the 2nd apron, and we are seeing the whole league run away from that. Remember KCP was getting real consideration from All Defense voters last year. Gordon was too, at a lesser extent.

/i]

What championship team doesn't have a POA defender and a two-way forward (especially if neither of them are particularly *great* on the defensive side)? Again these seem like super basic team building things and not a Jokic specific thing. The team building constraint on the Nuggets is Murray+MPJ+AG all underperforming their contracts, missing on basically every single margin move (with the notable exception of Braun), and rostering 7 non-NBA player. Meanwhile SGA is not on a supermax contract, JDub and Chet are on their rookie contracts, Caruso is on a $10 million a year contract, and Presti has absolutely killed it on margin moves.