Thoughts on this reddit post about Luka's athletic regression?

[bisme37]

Per Statmuse





His point production dropped by 4, but you'd be a god to average 34 in the playoffs. Hardly a case of not being a "consistent superstar".

This is the rest of the regular season after missing one game with hamstring tightness:
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=luka+don%C4%8Di%C4%87+stats+march+17+2024+to+june+2024

I think you came into the thread handwaving.

LOL. He averaged 29ppg in the PO on 23 shots. He had a below league average TS%. He struggled....i dont know how you can define it as anything but that.

And this year its more of the same. Gaudy volume numbers at below league average efficiency. This is not a what top 5 players do

But yes, keep hand waving it away. It's not a problem at all that Luka has not played like a top 5 player in a year and genuine arguments are there for top 10

Jayson Tatum averaged 25 points on 48% efg in the playoffs last year compared to Luka's 29 points on 51% efg. And I think we can both agree Luka's defended far more aggressively than Tatum. Yet I'm not in this thread arguing that Tatum's not a consistent superstar or not a top 5 or 10 player.

Give it up man. You've moved the goalposts twice already and you've been here long enough to know efficiency goes down in the playoffs and players get dinged up. And also that players may miss more games after playoff runs. 80% of the Mavs are injured this year. Nuance and context isn't handwaving.

Why is my guy always catching strays lol?

Luka was guarded aggressively for sure. But primarily with single coverage by Jaylen Brown.

Tatum was consistently doubled and trapped by a Mavs defense that couldn't guard him straight up. I've posted hella photos and other evidence of this in the past but I'll spare you. Picture 5 Mavs staring at JT and every other Celtic wide open on the 3pt line.

I think I've realized a lot of people watched roughly one game of last year's Finals and then turned it off since it wasn't very competitive. And I've spent the last 9 months scratching my head at the assumptions of what happened.

[BaDaBo]

There’s room for debate on whether Luka has lost some of his athleticism or is it just the injury. He'd also benefit from a summer off from international play. Playing year-long will sap your energy.

But him not dunking in-game is a choice.

He injured his wrist on two occasions while dunking in the 2022/23 season IIRC.

Read on Twitter

Not dunking isn't really a problem for me. It's the lack of burst off the dribble. 2020 Luka is not getting locked up by 38 year old Al Hortford on multiple possesions

The original Reddit post has the number of dunks per season as one metric of proving he's lost a step. I'm saying that point is mute as not dunking is a choice.

The rest is open to debate as I said above.

Also, did you watch the Milwaukee game? His burst was fine in that game. Not yet(?) great. But fine. Much better than vs Boston. Maybe having two extra days to deal with the back pain from the fall in an earlier game (Clippers, Pels) helped.

[HotRocks34]

Also, did you watch the Milwaukee game? His burst was fine in that game. Not yet(?) great. But fine. Much better than vs Boston. Maybe having two extra days to deal with the back pain from the fall in an earlier game (Clippers, Pels) helped.

Yes, and Luka fell on his back in the Knicks game, right before the Celtics game. Redick mentioned after the Celtics game that Luka's movement was an issue in the game. Also Luka was on the injury report for the Celtics game because of a knee bruise from hitting knees in a previous contest, I think it was.

Luka said after the Bucks game that the recent injuries are still bothering him but he's moving towards getting back to himself after the time off for the calf injury.

[levon]

LOL. He averaged 29ppg in the PO on 23 shots. He had a below league average TS%. He struggled....i dont know how you can define it as anything but that.

And this year its more of the same. Gaudy volume numbers at below league average efficiency. This is not a what top 5 players do

But yes, keep hand waving it away. It's not a problem at all that Luka has not played like a top 5 player in a year and genuine arguments are there for top 10

Jayson Tatum averaged 25 points on 48% efg in the playoffs last year compared to Luka's 29 points on 51% efg. And I think we can both agree Luka's defended far more aggressively than Tatum. Yet I'm not in this thread arguing that Tatum's not a consistent superstar or not a top 5 or 10 player.

Give it up man. You've moved the goalposts twice already and you've been here long enough to know efficiency goes down in the playoffs and players get dinged up. And also that players may miss more games after playoff runs. 80% of the Mavs are injured this year. Nuance and context isn't handwaving.

Why is my guy always catching strays lol?

Luka was guarded aggressively for sure. But primarily with single coverage by Jaylen Brown.

Tatum was consistently doubled and trapped by a Mavs defense that couldn't guard him straight up. I've posted hella photos and other evidence of this in the past but I'll spare you. Picture 5 Mavs staring at JT and every other Celtic wide open on the 3pt line.

I think I've realized a lot of people watched roughly one game of last year's Finals and then turned it off since it wasn't very competitive. And I've spent the last 9 months scratching my head at the assumptions of what happened.

We were talking about the playoffs generally, not just the Finals. I didn't watch a single Finals game since I couldn't stomach the Cs getting. 18.

[nbaguy1]

Al Horford being the best switch defender maybe of all time, and also taking care of his body his wholee life. And then just doing Al Horford stuff without needing to put up numbers, can just do his thing on Luka. No surprise

[madmaxmedia]

Just a refresher, here's just one of Doncic 2020 playoff performance. Totally night and day compared to him now. I didn't realized how quick he was, getting to the rim with ease.

Watch on YouTube

I actually forgot he moved like that. I'm not saying he will be washed in 3 years or anything, but yeah to see that kind of a difference from 21 to 26 years of age surprised me.

It may not be all weight and poor conditioning however. NBA bigs go through a lot of physical wear and tear, and Luka has played a lot more basketball than most 26 year olds. He's been a starter on the Mavs since his rookie year at age 19, and played 3 full seasons in Europe before that (Liga and Euroleague.) He's more like 30 in terms of mileage (which is still fine.)

If he has not been very dedicated to conditioning and fitness in the past, he is still young enough and with the right guy to help him now, and that should make a significant difference going forward.

[BaDaBo]

Just throwing this out there.

Read on Twitter

[MrBigShot]

His conditioning is legitimately atrocious. He needs to drop like 25-30 lbs. Luka right now would be in conversation for best player in the world if he were in in bubble shape.

[og15]

I actually don't think his athleticism was bad last season, but at this highest level, or course even a tiny drop in your athleticism can have a solid effect as we've seen in many players down years in the past.

I think as long as he gets back into form, he will be fine, but yes, as a professional athlete, he probably would be helped with some more fine tuning in his dietary habits to help keep the weight down.

His conditioning is legitimately atrocious. He needs to drop like 25-30 lbs. Luka right now would be in conversation for best player in the world if he were in in bubble shape.

I think you can just start with 10-15 lbs, which is possible for him by the start of next season, far less likely to happen while the season is going on, unless his extra calories are really just a lot of junk food and drinking his calories which he can cut down a good amount without any performance hit, but that would still be slow and unnoticeable.

25-30 lbs is a lot of weight to drop, but again, it's a diet issue, he's already a professional basketball player who starts, plays big minutes and plays a lot of games, so it's not a lack of exercise issue. He's not going to out exercise the diet as there's only so much training he can do outside of games, and in general it would be way too much anyways.

He could lift after games like some guys do, that will do a little bit, but not enough for what people are asking in terms of fitness.

[cocktailswith_2short]

He's a lazy idiot . All he has to do is get in shape and he'd be the king of kings .

[HotRocks34]

I think someone mentioned that Luka should get back to his younger weight. That seems unlikely.

I believe he was listed at 218 as a rookie and 230 in his second year as a 20/21 year old.

Now, Dallas thought his ideal playing weight was 245.



Most 20 year old men haven't filled out yet and I'd imagine the same was true for Luka.

Don't know what his weight is currently but it looks to be coming down.

[D.Brasco]

Nico clearly knew what he was doing. All you haters owe him an apology.

NIico comeback szn is just around the corner.

[Mr B]

I think someone mentioned that Luka should get back to his younger weight. That seems unlikely.

I believe he was listed at 218 as a rookie and 230 in his second year as a 20/21 year old.

Now, Dallas thought his ideal playing weight was 245.



Most 20 year old men haven't filled out yet and I'd imagine the same was true for Luka.

Don't know what his weight is currently but it looks to be coming down.

Luka was rumored to be over 270 at the time Dallas traded him.

[Mavrelous]

Just throwing this out there.

Read on Twitter

He's ramping up very well, his 3pt shot is back, his at the rim touch is almost back, his mid range is WIP...

[LuckyGreen7]

If Luka quit drinking he'd drop 20# in three months easily. You can see it in his face. The pudginess in his face is bloating from booze full stop. Guarantee that guy is a six pack or more a day drinker. Ultimately it will come out that his drinking is why the Mavs cut bait at a major discount and didn't want to invest in the guy for the future.

It's a damn shame because he has the talent to be MVP.

[LewisnotMiller]

"Luka's out of shape."

Here are the mpg stats in the playoffs last year. Recall that he had multiple injuries in the playoffs last season, led the playoffs in Total PTS/REB/AST and was, I believe, a net positive on defense during the postseason.



You can't play those kinds of minutes and be that effective, while hurt, if you're not in shape.

Does Luka get out of shape at times? He does. But he's never had a major injury and he's in shape when it counts.

Luka was overworked in Dallas. He's lucky he didn't get hurt from that, as Kyrie sadly just did.

To be fair, if Luka would stop playing in the summer that would help him recover. But I doubt it's going to happen.

I'm not sure what you're suggesting here. Luka plays more mpg than Tatum on this list, as his team was completely reliant on him. But that wasn't a good measure of his fitness. Tatum is clearly better conditioned.

To be clear, I'm talking the difference of him being a top tier player, and him being the best player in the NBA. That's where this guy is at.
Jokic went through a similar thing in his younger years. Crazy that Dallas traded him for 50c on the dollar. But we're still not getting the best version of Luka.

[LewisnotMiller]

Just throwing this out there.

Read on Twitter

Great...
But one of those games he had a +/- of -16. Another -19. In another two he was under 40% from the floor (31% in one of them) and in two others he combined for 12/20 from the foul line.

Cherry picking stats doesn't mean much. Luka is really good. The bar is really high if you're trying to convince people he's at his best.

[BaDaBo]

Just throwing this out there.

Read on Twitter

Great...
But one of those games he had a +/- of -16. Another -19. In another two he was under 40% from the floor (31% in one of them) and in two others he combined for 12/20 from the foul line.

Cherry-picking stats doesn't mean much. Luka is really good. The bar is really high if you're trying to convince people he's at his best.

Basketball is a team sport. Focusing on +/- for one player from just one or two games is cherry-picking as well. In the last 6 games he's +40. And pulling +/- from one game, FG% from another, and FT% from yet another is even more selective than using a six-game sample—it’s arguably an even bigger case of cherry-picking.

That being said a 6 game sample size is a small one, however, my only point was that he's getting better as he plays more games. Better play = better movement. This was evident in his last game vs Milwaukee.

[BaDaBo]

If Luka quit drinking he'd drop 20# in three months easily. You can see it in his face. The pudginess in his face is bloating from booze full stop. Guarantee that guy is a six pack or more a day drinker. Ultimately it will come out that his drinking is why the Mavs cut bait at a major discount and didn't want to invest in the guy for the future.

It's a damn shame because he has the talent to be MVP.

A six-pack a day or more? Lol.

Have you never drank beer or drank so much that you forgot what 6 beers per day do to a person? He wouldn't just be pudgy if he drank that much.

[Yoshun]

These conversations are so strange. The guy is playing hurt and damn near averaging a TDub on excellent percentages.