cupcakesnake wrote:J.Dub has had the best (3-year) career so far of any 2022 player. He's done better in his role that anyone else, quickly becoming an absolutely elite defensive do-it-all wing and strong secondary playmaker on a contender. He just put up a DPOY-level season in my opinion. That's insane without even getting into his all-star level offense. The man made all-NBA and all-defense this year. He's arrived while the other two are on the cusp.
Chet missed his rookie season, which has him playing catch up to his fellow star draft mates. His insanely good rim protection, defensive mobility, handles + driving ability, and solid spacing combine to give him a good chance to end up the best player in this class. He had another freaky injury this year, keeping him from really building on his reputation. He's done nothing but play elite basketball though.
Paolo is the most high profile. He's the only guy to be the 1st option on his team (though Franz has established himself as a firm 1A). He won rookie of the year, and was the quickest all-star. He's yet to achieve all-star-level offensive efficiency, but he's been in such a gross situation offensively. He's a driving playmaker surrounded by the worst spacing in the league. He's had flashes where he looks like an MVP-type, but his impact still needs to actually happen for us to give him that level of credit. Right now, he's an inefficient high-volume scorer, which isn't anything to reward him for. He seems like he's about to turn the corner and ascend to an elite level, but I'm not giving him credit for that in advance. Man has to do it. He just took 25 shots per game in the playoffs (more than anyone else by a fair margin!) and it wasn't always pretty (he hit 10 of them per game). I haven't seen his playmaking quite get ther yet either, though hopefull improved spacing with Bane can help that too.
I think right now, most people would still draft Paolo #1. If he doesn't bust out an actually good season in 2026, (and if Chet and J.Dub continue to do their thing), people are going to start wondering if he's actually going to deliver on the promise.
At #2, I think it's still probably Chet, but I think there's an even argument for J.Dub.
If you don't believe in either of Chet or Paolo's potential, you pick J.Dub because he doesn't need potential anymore. He's arrived.
Good insights, and you are focused on the big questions which we will eventually have definitive answers, but don't have yet.
Obviously I'm a Paolo skeptic - not making a definitive statement he can't turn the corner, but I think it's extremely important to try to look at guys slotted in as proto-superstars and recognize that if they don't make the leap, they may well have to totally re-think their game to play a role on a title team.
Another poster said that Paolo in JDub's place on OKC yields a dynasty, but I just find myself thinking there: What is Paolo doing when Shai has the ball? He can't space the floor, and you don't want him clogging the paint, so what the heck is he doing?
Here's a simple little stat I keep in mind.
So far in Paolo's 3 seasons, his team has been below 0 all 3 seasons. One might think this is not that unusual given that the team had a #1 draft pick in the first place, and so maybe no major minutes guys on the Magic were in the positive...but the thing is, Franz Wagner has led the team with a positive +/- all 3 of those years, and Paolo's been playing most his minutes with Franz in all of those years.
At this point I don't think it's controversial on RealGM to acknowledge that Franz has been the actual best player on the Magic in this era, not Paolo, but I'd say most are still under the feeling that Paolo is a plausible #1 while Franz is capped as a #2, and I get why they say that given that's how the Magic have treated them the whole time they've had them.
But 3 years of your alpha having a negative +/- (and negative On-Off) while your beta has a positive +/- (and positive On-Off) is not normal, even in circumstances where we're talking about a young alpha being groomed for the role.
If I go back through 20 years of drafts from 2003-2022 and look at the early years for the guys who on that list have made our Career Top 100 on the PC Board, here's what we find:
LeBron - only negative +/- the first year
Wade - positive +/- from the jump
Melo - positive from the jump
Bosh - negative +/- for the first 3 years like Paolo, but positive On-Off in his 2nd & 3rd years
Dwight - negative first year
Paul - negative the first 2 years, massive jump in the 3rd year
Deron - negative first year, positive after that
Lowry - negative 2nd & 3rd year as he had a rough start gaining traction on his team
Durant - extremely negative first two years before a big leap, basically this is what you have to be hoping for from Paolo
Horford - negative first year
Westbrook - negative first year
Curry - negative first 2 years
Harden - positive from the jump
George - positive from the jump
Kawhi - positive from the jump
Butler - positive from the jump
Davis - negative first two years
Green - positive from the jump
Lillard - negative first year
Giannis - negative 2 of 3 first years, possibly similar to Paolo?
Gobert - negative first year
Jokic - positive from the jump
Embiid - positive from the jump
Tatum - positive from the jump
Luka - negative first year
So looking at that list, none of them looked as bad in their first 3 years as Paolo has, and so we should absolutely expect that if Paolo becomes a player on this level, it's going to be because of him taking a late leap compared to basically all the rest of those guys.
Another thing to note: How many of those guys won ROY?
Bron, Howard, Paul, Durant, Lillard, Luka. So 5 of 25.
Meanwhile, in that span, how many #1 picks won ROY?
Bron, Howard, Rose, Griffin, Kyrie, Wiggins, KAT, Simmons. 8 out of the 20.
So what this is telling us is that if you are a #1 pick, your team will likely hand you the reins from the jump, and when this happens, you're considerably more likely to win ROY not just compared to having a Top 100 level career, but that you ware more likely to win ROY than the future Top 100 career players are. Meaning, when the team with the #1 pick makes the wrong choice, that #1 pick is still typically is going to be more likely to win the ROY than the guy who would have been the right choice, and along the way will come all the victory laps that make it so easy to re-frame your entire team building around that player, and then the team can easily not wake up and smell the coffee until well into the max contract they've already guaranteed him.
I would suggest that Paolo has a considerably weaker start to his career than everyone mentioned there except Wiggins, who was of course living in the negative +/- himself. Hence, I'd say that Paolo's chances of being a successful NBA alpha on a contender should absolutely be seen as less likely than all those other guys except Wiggins were at that time in their career.
And so the question is:
Is that people are actually thinking, or are they way more optimistic than that?
I think they're way more optimistic than that, and I think that most likely they're in for some disappointment.
I honestly didn’t know you were gonna go there. So there was one player drafted lower than him that’s currently better than him, and that made him overrated? He’s still going top 3 even if draft was redone today. 
