Flagg preseason debut: looking as good as advertised at 18 years old

[michaelm]

LeBron is the one guy who has lived up to being hyped as a rookie as being potentially the greatest player ever. I haven’t particularly liked the game styles of his teams, but his effectiveness and achievements are of course utterly undeniable.

There have probably been only two other comparable absolute athletic freaks who have combined size, strength and athleticism in the history of the NBA, Wilt and young Shaq, with Wemby having not made it through a full season yet, and it doesn’t sound like Flagg is another one. Add to that almost unprecedented durability and he just can’t be LeBron period starting with the physiology he has. It is possible he could match him for BBIQ, skills and adaptability over a long career which would make him one of the greatest players ever and I would like to see him do so.

[bonita_the_frog]

A " ludicrous prediction"?

I haven't made any prediction... other than Flagg's rookie season being better than LeBron's, which is obviously not ludicrous, as LeBron shot very poorly in his rookie season, so it would surprise nobody if Flagg shoot's better. And obviously Flagg's defense is extremely likely to be better than rookie Bron. And we know Flagg is an excellent passer and already has impressed with his court vision and pin-point accurate passing which looked exactly like Bron's passing.

I said "I think Flagg will have a better rookie season than LeBron".

And "But it wouldn't surprise me if Flagg has a better career than LeBron". Obviously not a prediction, just something that wouldn't surprise me.

And "That puts Flagg on track to be a better player than LeBron, which again isn't saying much, because being on target after ONE year doesn't mean you'll stay on target after 10 or 20 years."

And when Bob said "Have you checked what kind of career LeBron had? The most points scored in Nba history, soon the most games played in Nba, 4 MVPs, 4 rings"... I replied-

With the all-around skills of Cooper Flagg, the odds are Flagg will win Finals MVP every time he wins a championship.
So as long as Flagg sticks with a contender, I like his chances of winning between 3 and 6 Rings and Finals MVPs.
And total points scored don't help you become GOAT, because hardly anyone put Kareem over Jordan.
And hanging around to play the most games, won't improve your peak level, and it doesn't seem to win you championships either...

So no prediction, other than Flagg's rookie season, which I like my chances with...

[UglyBugBall]

I think Flagg will end up as a top-15 player all-time, but we’re probably going to see Jokic crack the top 10, Wemby reach the top 7, and Luka finish somewhere in the top 5 by the end of their careers. So even though Flagg looks like a future all-time great, there are likely going to be several current players who’ll rank ahead of him historically.

[TheNG]

I think Flagg will end up as a top-15 player all-time, but we’re probably going to see Jokic crack the top 10, Wemby reach the top 7, and Luka finish somewhere in the top 5 by the end of their careers. So even though Flagg looks like a future all-time great, there are likely going to be several current players who’ll rank ahead of him historically.

If 4 new players (Jokic, Wemby, Luka, Flagg) enter the top15 all time, can you suggest which 4 players are moved out of the top15? (Let's assume the top9 is the consensus one, then you must pick only 2 from the following list to stay in the top15: Kobe/Curry/Hakeem/Durant/Oscar/West/Garnett/Dirk/DrJ/Wade/Robinson/Barkley/both Malones etc)

[Texas Chuck]

Nobody needs to be citing Lebron, a one of one. Why can't we just enjoy the kid without damning him with ridiculous comparisons?

[ROballer]

He will have the best rookie season by a freshman/highschool draftee ever when you factor in advanced stats, impact + raw stats. Along with wins for his team.

I have him at 18/8/4 with 3 stocks per game and 51/38/82 shooting splits. Mavs with 50+ wins and at least a second round exit.

Won't even be 19 and a half years old by the time he's done with the season which is ridiculous.

He's topping Melo for sure. Can't remember many more guys in this mold. Magic was a sophomore coming into the league.
Lebron and many others didn't have team success their rookie year.
If you want to add Wemby, Doncic and other international players who are close to a freshman's age fine. But Flagg will still clear.

[EmpireFalls]

Nobody needs to be citing Lebron, a one of one. Why can't we just enjoy the kid without damning him with ridiculous comparisons?

Cam24Thomas is back, as a frog, that’s why

[Broadcaster]

That's what scientists do, change their opinion when they learn more.
Everybody's opinion will change on Flagg at some point.
But I've never called a rookie a "bust", so highly unlikely.

Dude, I am in the preclinical field. So I actually do real science. A study that test the toxicity or efficacy of a novel drug can last for 28 days to several years. Scientists don't make predications after 1 study day.

Scientists make a hypothesis, while sports experts make a prediction (or in my case, an expectation), but both change their opinion when new information comes in.
When we change our sports opinion, can be after one pre-season game, or one regular season game, or an entire season... that's why we have a thread about Flagg's pre-season game.

You either missed his point or avoided it. The sample size is too small. That’s the whole truth right now. Keep saying whatever you want about hypothesis but no reasonable person would make any real claims without any real data. Currently the lack of tangible data puts you in the “unreasonable” camp. Believe it if you want but you’re only doing a disservice to yourself.

[Archx]

So no prediction, other than Flagg's rookie season, which I like my chances with...

Dude, every sentence you wrote, you made some kind of a prediction. Even in earlier posts you said he could be the best offensive and defensive player of all time. Do you even realize how insanely difficult would that be? Right now Luka and Jokic are doing some incredible things on offense, something we have rarely seen in the past. Flagg would first have to match these two and then go even further to challenge other players from the history. You're trying to raise the bar for Flagg so high, i don't remember people were doing that even for Wemby.

[UglyBugBall]

I think Flagg will end up as a top-15 player all-time, but we’re probably going to see Jokic crack the top 10, Wemby reach the top 7, and Luka finish somewhere in the top 5 by the end of their careers. So even though Flagg looks like a future all-time great, there are likely going to be several current players who’ll rank ahead of him historically.

If 4 new players (Jokic, Wemby, Luka, Flagg) enter the top15 all time, can you suggest which 4 players are moved out of the top15? (Let's assume the top9 is the consensus one, then you must pick only 2 from the following list to stay in the top15: Kobe/Curry/Hakeem/Durant/Oscar/West/Garnett/Dirk/DrJ/Wade/Robinson/Barkley/both Malones etc)

This group:
- Luka
- Wemby
- Jokic
- Flagg

Clearly replace:
- Dirk (Even Dirk said Luka's better)
- Barkley
- Dr J
- A Malone or Robinson

2 of those current players (Luka/Jokic) are clearly better than the above 4 players. Wemby, barring injury appears to have the toolkit to pass those 4 players. Flagg is a question mark. I have him reaching that top 15, but he could be anywhere from 13-20.

[The Master]

I think Flagg will end up as a top-15 player all-time, but we’re probably going to see Jokic crack the top 10, Wemby reach the top 7, and Luka finish somewhere in the top 5 by the end of their careers. So even though Flagg looks like a future all-time great, there are likely going to be several current players who’ll rank ahead of him historically.

Doncic has no trajectory to finish as the top5 player of all-time at the moment, Wemby's health is also far from being given. Luka is 26 already and has no hardware in his resume besides ROTY - he can go on a winning streak with MVPs or whatever, but in his age KD or Giannis had already won more as players.

But yeah, ~top30 ever (Barkley-like career) is a 'probable' career outcome for the way above average 1st draft pick like Flagg. Not saying he can't surpass it or that he'll reach it for sure, but these comparisons to LeBron have to stop for now. AD and KD were the same tier as prospects as Flagg and they won combined 1x RS MVP and 2x FMVP.

[zero rings]

I just said Flagg looks like a better rookie than LeBron, so he's on target to be better than LeBron (which isn't saying much, because being on target after ONE year doesn't mean you will be after 20 years).
It hasn't happened yet, but I'm confident Flagg will have a better rookie season than LeBron did.

One preseason game doesn't provide any real reason to believe that Flagg will be better than what we saw from Lebron as a rookie. It's difficult to articulate how inane a stance that is. There is the possibility that Flagg looks better than Lebron, but it's just not probable. Lebron was a 20/5/5 who thrived despite a properly dreadful circumstance. There's a good chance Flagg won't score 20 ppg, and he's not really the same level of playmaker Lebron was, nor is he a comparable athlete. It's EXCEPTIONALLY premature to be making that sort of projection.

Are you going to see him have his first crap game and say he's going to be a bust? Because that's the same plane of analysis you're occupying at the moment.

That's what scientists do, change their opinion when they learn more.
Everybody's opinion will change on Flagg at some point.
But I've never called a rookie a "bust", so highly unlikely.

And to have a better rookie season than LeBron, you don't need identical stats, because you can play a lot better defense than rookie LeBron, and you can shoot a lot better than rookie LeBron (.417 field, .290 threes).
Of course if Flagg has a better rookie season than LeBron, you don't have to give him credit, you can say "LeBron had a worse supporting cast".

I don’t know if your hot takes are sincere or not, but you have a tendency to drag every thread into the realm of absurdity.

And I’m 99% sure you’ve been banned for this before

[TheNG]

I think Flagg will end up as a top-15 player all-time, but we’re probably going to see Jokic crack the top 10, Wemby reach the top 7, and Luka finish somewhere in the top 5 by the end of their careers. So even though Flagg looks like a future all-time great, there are likely going to be several current players who’ll rank ahead of him historically.

If 4 new players (Jokic, Wemby, Luka, Flagg) enter the top15 all time, can you suggest which 4 players are moved out of the top15? (Let's assume the top9 is the consensus one, then you must pick only 2 from the following list to stay in the top15: Kobe/Curry/Hakeem/Durant/Oscar/West/Garnett/Dirk/DrJ/Wade/Robinson/Barkley/both Malones etc)

This group:
- Luka
- Wemby
- Jokic
- Flagg

Clearly replace:
- Dirk (Even Dirk said Luka's better)
- Barkley
- Dr J
- A Malone or Robinson

2 of those current players (Luka/Jokic) are clearly better than the above 4 players. Wemby, barring injury appears to have the toolkit to pass those 4 players. Flagg is a question mark. I have him reaching that top 15, but he could be anywhere from 13-20.

I don't think you understood.
"Consensus" top9 is: MJ, Bird, Magic, Kareem, LeBron, Wilt, Russell, Shaq, Duncan.
If we add to the "top15" the players you said we should add (Jokic, Wemby, Luka, Flagg) then we already have 13 out of the top 15. It means you can only select 2 of the additional players to stay in the "top15":
Kobe/Curry/Hakeem/Durant/Oscar/West/Garnett/Dirk/DrJ/Wade/Robinson/Barkley/both Malones.
All the rest will not be top15.

[symbiotic]

I can't trust a team ran by Nico Harrison will ever be Championship caliber.

[lambchop]

If 4 new players (Jokic, Wemby, Luka, Flagg) enter the top15 all time, can you suggest which 4 players are moved out of the top15? (Let's assume the top9 is the consensus one, then you must pick only 2 from the following list to stay in the top15: Kobe/Curry/Hakeem/Durant/Oscar/West/Garnett/Dirk/DrJ/Wade/Robinson/Barkley/both Malones etc)

This group:
- Luka
- Wemby
- Jokic
- Flagg

Clearly replace:
- Dirk (Even Dirk said Luka's better)
- Barkley
- Dr J
- A Malone or Robinson

2 of those current players (Luka/Jokic) are clearly better than the above 4 players. Wemby, barring injury appears to have the toolkit to pass those 4 players. Flagg is a question mark. I have him reaching that top 15, but he could be anywhere from 13-20.

I don't think you understood.
"Consensus" top9 is: MJ, Bird, Magic, Kareem, LeBron, Wilt, Russell, Shaq, Duncan.
If we add to the "top15" the players you said we should add (Jokic, Wemby, Luka, Flagg) then we already have 13 out of the top 15. It means you can only select 2 of the additional players to stay in the "top15":
Kobe/Curry/Hakeem/Durant/Oscar/West/Garnett/Dirk/DrJ/Wade/Robinson/Barkley/both Malones.
All the rest will not be top15.

Excellent point and to make your point even clearer he kinda already said he'd remove Malones, Barkley, Dirk, Robinson.

Thus, two of Kobe, Curry, Hakeem, Durant, Oscar, West, Garnett, DrJ, Wade wouldn't make it. And this is all because Cooper Flagg scored 10 points in a preseason game.

[Ice Man]

He will have the best rookie season by a freshman/highschool draftee ever when you factor in advanced stats, impact + raw stats. Along with wins for his team.

I have him at 18/8/4 with 3 stocks per game and 51/38/82 shooting splits

Sounds about right. Plus -- and this stuff is also important -- excellent positioning both offensively and defensively, along with a high work rate. Those will make him even better than the stats indicate. And yes, the best rookie season by a guy who was 18 years old when the season began.

Which of course is different than saying he will then go onto become the best player ever. We can compare rookie Flagg with rookie LeBron without taking that next step. Nor should we.

[Bob8]

He will have the best rookie season by a freshman/highschool draftee ever when you factor in advanced stats, impact + raw stats. Along with wins for his team.

I have him at 18/8/4 with 3 stocks per game and 51/38/82 shooting splits

Sounds about right. Plus -- and this stuff is also important -- excellent positioning both offensively and defensively, along with a high work rate. Those will make him even better than the stats indicate. And yes, the best rookie season by a guy who was 18 years old when the season began.

Which of course is different than saying he will then go onto become the best player ever. We can compare rookie Flagg with rookie LeBron without taking that next step. Nor should we.

He for sure won't have better counting stats than Luka.

[UglyBugBall]

If 4 new players (Jokic, Wemby, Luka, Flagg) enter the top15 all time, can you suggest which 4 players are moved out of the top15? (Let's assume the top9 is the consensus one, then you must pick only 2 from the following list to stay in the top15: Kobe/Curry/Hakeem/Durant/Oscar/West/Garnett/Dirk/DrJ/Wade/Robinson/Barkley/both Malones etc)

This group:
- Luka
- Wemby
- Jokic
- Flagg

Clearly replace:
- Dirk (Even Dirk said Luka's better)
- Barkley
- Dr J
- A Malone or Robinson

2 of those current players (Luka/Jokic) are clearly better than the above 4 players. Wemby, barring injury appears to have the toolkit to pass those 4 players. Flagg is a question mark. I have him reaching that top 15, but he could be anywhere from 13-20.

I don't think you understood.
"Consensus" top9 is: MJ, Bird, Magic, Kareem, LeBron, Wilt, Russell, Shaq, Duncan.
If we add to the "top15" the players you said we should add (Jokic, Wemby, Luka, Flagg) then we already have 13 out of the top 15. It means you can only select 2 of the additional players to stay in the "top15":
Kobe/Curry/Hakeem/Durant/Oscar/West/Garnett/Dirk/DrJ/Wade/Robinson/Barkley/both Malones.
All the rest will not be top15.

I don't think Wilt and Russel are consensus at all. They played in an era that's incomparable to modern ball. It's like asking who from the 50s and 60s do we move aside to make room for Usain Bolt as an ATG. Fact is advancements in training, science and nutrition make those comparisons absurd. So Russel, Wilt would be out. That leaves an additional 4 that can stay - likely Hakeem, Curry, Kobe and one other between the remaining guys.

[tsherkin]

That's what scientists do, change their opinion when they learn more.
Everybody's opinion will change on Flagg at some point.
But I've never called a rookie a "bust", so highly unlikely.

And to have a better rookie season than LeBron, you don't need identical stats, because you can play a lot better defense than rookie LeBron, and you can shoot a lot better than rookie LeBron (.417 field, .290 threes).

Worth remembering the difference in team environment, pace and defensive context. Directly comparing raw FG% would be both ignorant and stupid, naturally.

Flagg has potential. He might have a rookie campaign better than Lebron's. It's very unlikely, but it is also is not impossible given his talent. That's not really the issue here. Your allergy to context and the notion of sample size is of considerably more concern.

A " ludicrous prediction"?

I haven't made any prediction... other than Flagg's rookie season being better than LeBron's, which is obviously not ludicrous,

No, it's actually super ludicrous.

You are now scrambling to make up some BS to help justify your weird and absurd remark.

[mademan]

I think Flagg will end up as a top-15 player all-time, but we’re probably going to see Jokic crack the top 10, Wemby reach the top 7, and Luka finish somewhere in the top 5 by the end of their careers. So even though Flagg looks like a future all-time great, there are likely going to be several current players who’ll rank ahead of him historically.

If 4 new players (Jokic, Wemby, Luka, Flagg) enter the top15 all time, can you suggest which 4 players are moved out of the top15? (Let's assume the top9 is the consensus one, then you must pick only 2 from the following list to stay in the top15: Kobe/Curry/Hakeem/Durant/Oscar/West/Garnett/Dirk/DrJ/Wade/Robinson/Barkley/both Malones etc)

This group:
- Luka
- Wemby
- Jokic
- Flagg

Clearly replace:
- Dirk (Even Dirk said Luka's better)
- Barkley
- Dr J
- A Malone or Robinson

2 of those current players (Luka/Jokic) are clearly better than the above 4 players. Wemby, barring injury appears to have the toolkit to pass those 4 players. Flagg is a question mark. I have him reaching that top 15, but he could be anywhere from 13-20.

The only one that looks like a top 15 player right now is Jokic. Far too early to consider this for Wemby and Luka is 26 with no MVP's, no titles and a poor future outlook with the Lakers to think it's all gonna change that much, that fast. Shai is a possibility if OKC can become a dynasty and he can get enough titles, but even that is a stretch.