Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread 

Post#1001 » by michaelm » Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:17 am

BadMofoPimp wrote:
michaelm wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:
A Chinese dissident reported on this in another message board. He claimed that those Asian countries are so used to Chinese government's lies that when they say something like,"There is nothing to worry about," then those Asian countries worry about it.

Well, our problem in current political correctness and reliance on China, if we would have overreacted back in January, there would have been a new set of impeachment charges on Trump over racism or some other trumped up charge. Because, too many Democrats and Republicans are way pro China.

At least now, we know not to trust the Chinese Government when they say there is nothing going on and nothing to worry about.

PS: I don't think China unleashed anything, they just made major mistakes then covered them up that in the end will cost the REST of the world up to $20 trillion dollars and half a million lives. In the end, we will still probably kiss their ass especially if Biden becomes President. It would be like saying thank you for killing our economy and people.

You assume they made mistakes. I don’t trust them to tell the entire truth about pretty much anything either, but the fact of the matter is that there is no actual evidence that the virus originated on a laboratory or was due to a mistake in a laboratory.[
When I see people over there disappearing for reporting the truth, warships currently circling Taiwan and a government telling the world there is nothing to worry about WHEN there is a pandemic ready to destroy the worlds economy and kill people, there is most definitely issues with the Chinese government beyond political correctness. The only reason you don't have "actual evidence" even though we have a great deal of evidence is because their government has been proven to lie about the virus, have proven to be covering up what happened and people who have reported on the virus have disappeared. People should be taking the Chinese government a helluva lot more seriously.

Pray tell what the evidence is.

I don’t admire the Chinese government, and they may well have disappeared dissidents as is their not infrequent wont, but they were not much different from many other countries in denying the lethality of the virus/wishfully hoping it would go away initially, and for a shorter period than some.

Nevertheless I don’t believe there is much doubt that the virus is of Chinese origin, and even if due to Chinese wet markets as SARS was or to Chinese farming practices they should reform them, as they should have done after SARS. I don’t believe they are entitled to annex the entire South China Sea because it is called the South China Sea either.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread 

Post#1002 » by Gooner » Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:25 am

Best2EverDoIt wrote:
Lucky Clover wrote:
Best2EverDoIt wrote:How would I be trolling? You think a few doctors and scientists aren't capable of stretching the truth for a big paycheck? If you think that's impossible you're just severely lacking intelligence or any sense of reality.


So lets get this straight. Doctors make up that article to "scare" people so that they can stretch the truth for a big pay day.... :crazy:

Yeah I'm sorry but nothing you've said makes any logical sense. I think the only one here lacking intelligence is you. Pathetic. You remind me of the idiots out there protesting to reopen the country.
I didn't read the article. It's from CNN. Do you know how much Bill Gates Mr. Let's Depopulate the earth has donated towards a vaccine for this virus? He plans on vaccinating 7 billion people which is the entire earth. For a virus with a 2% mortality rate. So yeah I wouldn't be surprised if there were doctors or scientists paid to stretch the truth and scare people into taking his vaccine. Those "idiots" are out there protesting because they can't work due to this BS virus and the entire economy is collapsing. They're protesting to keep our freedoms that dumbasses like you are willing to give up over a severe cold.


It's funny to me that people still can't grasp that doctors, scientists and politicians are just puppets used by the elites. They are the last people you should trust.

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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread 

Post#1003 » by Fairview4Life » Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:33 am

If only doctors and scientists were independent and thoughtful like you.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread 

Post#1004 » by KingDavid » Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:38 am

Best2EverDoIt wrote:I'm curious what would make me NOT a troll. Believing all of the lies you dumb **** are eating up? Because my opinion differs I'm a troll? That's one thing I love about RealGM. A bunch of idiots that come to talk about basketball yet think they know everything and have the answers to all of the world's problems.

Uh, fam.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread 

Post#1005 » by michaelm » Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:44 am

Fairview4Life wrote:If only doctors and scientists were independent and thoughtful like you.

Yes, they have been found out, the Illuminati probably had their origin with the Ming Dynasty or somesuch.

I really hope things improve in the USA, and that we can go back to basketball discussions between people interested in basketball on this forum.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread 

Post#1006 » by DowJones » Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:58 am

Topofthekey wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:
Topofthekey wrote:Again, how do you explain the way most Asian countries handled it?

For example, Singapore. Here is an interview with a virologist from Singapore, on January 21st

He confirmed that human to human transmission was happening. He also described the stringent checks being set up in Wuhan

(source: https://www.npr.org/2020/01/21/798088813/coronavirus-in-china-spreads-by-human-to-human-transmission)

On January 23rd, Singapore recorded its first case, and immediately started contact tracing and testing

Did the lack of transparency not affect them as well?


And still, even though that may have happened, the entire rest of the world wasn't panicking or thinking this was going to be any worse than it became.

Yes, the entire world was caught off guard by the virus

But the point is, most Asian countries reacted accordingly, with whatever information they had at the time

Trump and Europe did not

But they are also the most vocal right now in trying to deflect blame. Some people in the UK blame 5G. Germany blames China. Trump supporters are pushing conspiracy theories ranging from China unleashing the virus to kill Americans to Bill Gates creating the virus so that he can tag everyone with digital implants

It's absurd


Italy got crushed by the virus. It then spread from Italy to the rest of Europe and the United States. I would argue that the United States and other European countries weren't impacted greatly from the spread from Asia. Nobody saw Italy coming.

I think an interesting question is why did Northern Italy get hit so hard?
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread 

Post#1007 » by Gooner » Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:07 pm

There are only 58 deaths in Belarus, and they have no restrictions. Interesting.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread 

Post#1008 » by Fairview4Life » Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:18 pm

DowJones wrote:Italy got crushed by the virus. It then spread from Italy to the rest of Europe and the United States. I would argue that the United States and other European countries weren't impacted greatly from the spread from Asia. Nobody saw Italy coming.

I think an interesting question is why did Northern Italy get hit so hard?


Really need to know if the reports of much earlier community spread on the west coast are true or not. They had those autopsies of people that died in early January I think that turned up antibodies, but there have been a lot of issues with the antibody tests to date. What would be weird if that's true though is that we didn't start seeing a lot more deaths until March right? Also really need to see more excess death calcs.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread 

Post#1009 » by BadMofoPimp » Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:46 pm

DowJones wrote:
Topofthekey wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:
And still, even though that may have happened, the entire rest of the world wasn't panicking or thinking this was going to be any worse than it became.

Yes, the entire world was caught off guard by the virus

But the point is, most Asian countries reacted accordingly, with whatever information they had at the time

Trump and Europe did not

But they are also the most vocal right now in trying to deflect blame. Some people in the UK blame 5G. Germany blames China. Trump supporters are pushing conspiracy theories ranging from China unleashing the virus to kill Americans to Bill Gates creating the virus so that he can tag everyone with digital implants

It's absurd


Italy got crushed by the virus. It then spread from Italy to the rest of Europe and the United States. I would argue that the United States and other European countries weren't impacted greatly from the spread from Asia. Nobody saw Italy coming.

I think an interesting question is why did Northern Italy get hit so hard?


Well, Northern Italy has a couple hundred thousand Chinese workers imported from China. In addition, there is a direct flight from Wuhan to Northern Italy to make "Made in Italy" fashion.

https://www.rebellionresearch.com/blog/northern-italy-wuhan-partners-for-better-or-worse

Northern Italy has a very prosperous fashion and apparel industry. Many of the most famous brands around the world from Gucci to Prada originated in the region. As China has offered cheaper manufacturing for their apparel factories, more and more Italian fashion houses have outsourced work to China, and specifically to Wuhan.

Italy created direct flights from Wuhan and allowed over 100,000 citizens from China to move to Italy and work in their factories. In addition, as the Chinese became increasingly wealthy over the last two decades, more and more Chinese citizens moved to northern Italy to reside and many Chinese purchased Italian firms.


In addition I think Climate is a major factor as well as population density for New Yorkers:

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/disaster-motion-flights-coronavirus-ravaged-countries-landed-us/story?id=70025470
The data shows that 3,200 flights flew from China to the U.S., including more than 1,000 flights that went to Los Angeles and nearly 500 each landed in San Francisco and New York – all three among the eventual hot spots of the COVID-19 outbreak in the U.S. More than 100 flights from China arrived in six other American cities: Chicago, Seattle, Detroit, Dallas, Washington, D.C., and Newark, N.J.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread 

Post#1010 » by michaelm » Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:48 pm

:evil:
DowJones wrote:
Topofthekey wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:
And still, even though that may have happened, the entire rest of the world wasn't panicking or thinking this was going to be any worse than it became.

Yes, the entire world was caught off guard by the virus

But the point is, most Asian countries reacted accordingly, with whatever information they had at the time

Trump and Europe did not

But they are also the most vocal right now in trying to deflect blame. Some people in the UK blame 5G. Germany blames China. Trump supporters are pushing conspiracy theories ranging from China unleashing the virus to kill Americans to Bill Gates creating the virus so that he can tag everyone with digital implants

It's absurd


Italy got crushed by the virus. It then spread from Italy to the rest of Europe and the United States. I would argue that the United States and other European countries weren't impacted greatly from the spread from Asia. Nobody saw Italy coming.

I think an interesting question is why did Northern Italy get hit so hard?

It seems to be a disease of clusters contracted by interaction in close quarters and appearing to have worse outcomes in such circumstances, perhaps due to higher viral load in regard to which there is some scientific support or perhaps from greater opportunity for superspreaders to superspread which is an opinion of mine.

Italy has an older population, a high rate of smoking particularly among men, and generations of the same family living together. Another factor which has been suggested is that seeing the equivalent of a GP/family physician costs money in Italy, but hospital care including attending hospital emergency departments is without charge, and hence early on people feeling unwell apparently attended hospital casualty departments in droves, milling around with no separation. Also, when things got bad in the cities, young people apparently went home to their families in the countryside. I have seen no evidence myself for the virus mutating to a more lethal variant in Italy, but would be interested if anyone has seen anything scientific about same.

{EDIT the post immediately prior to this one in regard to Italy is probably of greater relevance than anything I said in this post}.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread 

Post#1011 » by TunaFish » Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:49 pm

Gooner wrote:There are only 58 deaths in Belarus, and they have no restrictions. Interesting.


"The number of reported COVID-19 cases in Belarus is growing rapidly, with 6264 cases reported as of 20 April. The government has already implemented containment measures – testing suspect cases, tracing their contacts and isolating the sick. It has also placed emphasis on increasing capacity to manage the surge in COVID-19 patients, while continuing with essential health services for chronic diseases, maternal health and mental health. With community transmission established, it is important to complement these interventions with physical distancing measures."

http://www.euro.who.int/en/countries/belarus/news/news/2020/4/who-expert-mission-to-belarus-recommends-physical-distancing-measures-as-covid-19-virus-transmits-in-the-community

Right, lets be like Belarus.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread 

Post#1012 » by dhsilv2 » Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:02 pm

NBAFan93 wrote:
Kabookalu wrote:
michaelm wrote:As an outside observer this seems very true. I have been watching snippets of both Fox and Friends and CNN (not for extended periods, there are limits to my curiosity) and both seem agenda driven, and more interested in praising or criticising Trump’s handling of the crisis than in what is actually transpiring.


I don't watch CNN for the same reason I don't ESPN. They take objective information, and manipulate it in a way to make you feel an emotion, because that's how you grab an audience's attention, by making them feel something through your storytelling. They'll take the big picture, and then selectively take bits and pieces of it to form a narrative. CNN is explicit with this, but not to the extent of Fox who might as well be considered state propaganda.

All that being said I don't see how anyone informed on this can say that Trump's handling of this has been anything short of a disaster. There's a whole laundry list to go through, but stealing medical supplies from states, and selling them to private companies, who pit states against each other in a bidding war so they can buy something they already paid for, is the most irresponsible act I've ever seen a president commit in my lifetime. The states are all out here fending for themselves with little help of the federal government.



I wasn’t aware he did the bolded. That’s awful if true.

When I watch Trump he seems like someone flying by the seat of their pants during a completely awful situation - but at the same time having to deal w/ an unprecedentedly hostile press that wants to accuse and blame him for everything cause they have an obvious agenda. I honestly want to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he’s doing the best he can and genuinely wants to do the right thing.

Plus I’m not convinced any of the other leaders can and would have done a better job either. Not like all kinds of Democrats were screaming these genious plans filled w/ foresight re: stopping the virus in January or February, were they?

I wish the media would stop being so agenda driven and actually just do objective reporting like they used to. And both sides would start working together and stop being so accusatory and nasty. People put this partisan **** aside for at least a little bit during 9/11 - sad they don’t seem willing to do that now.


Lets peel back the US stuff and the media stuff.

There's a tricky act be played by leaders as they often get stuck with two hats that don't always go together. Perhaps why some countries still have queens. The first is to be a head of state which means managing a very large organization of bureaucracy. This is a CEO type role though in most democracies that comes with an extremely active board (the other elected officials) and a never ending amount of rules and regulations. The second role is more being the "face" and needing to bring people together and calm nations during times of panic.

With the first spot, we have to ask if the right people were roles and those people had the ability to get their jobs done. I've brought up masks in the US being depleted from I believe the H1N1 outbreak and never restocked. This goes back years and without a doubt is the kind of thing that would lead to heads rolling at any corporation.

The shelter in place message would be a great thing for this thread to discuss and in that I mean how people in different countries with different messaging are responding to it. Some leaders have been outright against it before eventually being for it (Trump and Johnson come to mind) and others have been far more consistent. What impact does that have on both adherence and just the general national mood?

As for the "could someone else have done better", I don't think that's really a fair standard. leadership isn't graded on a curve. You do well or not. It certainly looks like most world leaders are hoping for a C on this.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread 

Post#1013 » by California Gold » Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:16 pm

Gooner wrote:
Best2EverDoIt wrote:
Lucky Clover wrote:
So lets get this straight. Doctors make up that article to "scare" people so that they can stretch the truth for a big pay day.... :crazy:

Yeah I'm sorry but nothing you've said makes any logical sense. I think the only one here lacking intelligence is you. Pathetic. You remind me of the idiots out there protesting to reopen the country.
I didn't read the article. It's from CNN. Do you know how much Bill Gates Mr. Let's Depopulate the earth has donated towards a vaccine for this virus? He plans on vaccinating 7 billion people which is the entire earth. For a virus with a 2% mortality rate. So yeah I wouldn't be surprised if there were doctors or scientists paid to stretch the truth and scare people into taking his vaccine. Those "idiots" are out there protesting because they can't work due to this BS virus and the entire economy is collapsing. They're protesting to keep our freedoms that dumbasses like you are willing to give up over a severe cold.


It's funny to me that people still can't grasp that doctors, scientists and politicians are just puppets used by the elites. They are the last people you should trust.


I wouldn't doubt that would be the case for some. But labeling an entire group of professionals as puppets and disregarding everything they have to say isn't the way to go. I also wouldn't group Doctors/Scientists with polticians. We know clear corruption exists within politicians who have more to gain for themselves by spewing BS compared to Doctors and Scientists.

Further, even if a wild theory like half the Doctors having another motive other than the well being of human lives exists, the other half agree on the same opinion as well. It's pretty universal with a lot of the facts/opinions that doctors share on Covid-19. Realistically speaking even if you think this is all overblown, if you don't trust even some of the professionals in these industries, how do you go on to operate your life? I don't really understand that logic at all. You can educate yourself all you want, it's not going to make you smarter or more informed than someone who does it for a living.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread 

Post#1014 » by California Gold » Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:19 pm

DowJones wrote:
Topofthekey wrote:
BadMofoPimp wrote:
And still, even though that may have happened, the entire rest of the world wasn't panicking or thinking this was going to be any worse than it became.

Yes, the entire world was caught off guard by the virus

But the point is, most Asian countries reacted accordingly, with whatever information they had at the time

Trump and Europe did not

But they are also the most vocal right now in trying to deflect blame. Some people in the UK blame 5G. Germany blames China. Trump supporters are pushing conspiracy theories ranging from China unleashing the virus to kill Americans to Bill Gates creating the virus so that he can tag everyone with digital implants

It's absurd


Italy got crushed by the virus. It then spread from Italy to the rest of Europe and the United States. I would argue that the United States and other European countries weren't impacted greatly from the spread from Asia. Nobody saw Italy coming.

I think an interesting question is why did Northern Italy get hit so hard?


One theory I've heard about Northern Italy (might be a myth, not sure) is that the textile industry is there and they have a lot of Chinese workers that routinely fly back to China (supposedly even direct flights to Wuhan). That along with an older population as another poster mentioned and the nature of it all happening so quickly to overwhelm their hospitals probably plays a big part in why they were hit the hardest in terms of deaths.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread 

Post#1015 » by theonlyclutch » Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:22 pm

michaelm wrote::evil:
DowJones wrote:
Topofthekey wrote:Yes, the entire world was caught off guard by the virus

But the point is, most Asian countries reacted accordingly, with whatever information they had at the time

Trump and Europe did not

But they are also the most vocal right now in trying to deflect blame. Some people in the UK blame 5G. Germany blames China. Trump supporters are pushing conspiracy theories ranging from China unleashing the virus to kill Americans to Bill Gates creating the virus so that he can tag everyone with digital implants

It's absurd


Italy got crushed by the virus. It then spread from Italy to the rest of Europe and the United States. I would argue that the United States and other European countries weren't impacted greatly from the spread from Asia. Nobody saw Italy coming.

I think an interesting question is why did Northern Italy get hit so hard?

It seems to be a disease of clusters contracted by interaction in close quarters and appearing to have worse outcomes in such circumstances, perhaps due to higher viral load in regard to which there is some scientific support or perhaps from greater opportunity for superspreaders to superspread which is an opinion of mine.

Italy has an older population, a high rate of smoking particularly among men, and generations of the same family living together. Another factor which has been suggested is that seeing the equivalent of a GP/family physician costs money in Italy, but hospital care including attending hospital emergency departments is without charge, and hence early on people feeling unwell apparently attended hospital casualty departments in droves, milling around with no separation. Also, when things got bad in the cities, young people apparently went home to their families in the countryside. I have seen no evidence myself for the virus mutating to a more lethal variant in Italy, but would be interested if anyone has seen anything scientific about same.

{EDIT the post immediately prior to this one in regard to Italy is probably of greater relevance than anything I said in this post}.


Older population, multiple generations living in the same households, as well as high population in proximity to each other describes Japan, South Korea, HK and Taiwan to a T. Japan in particular has high proximity to China, a big potential seed of cases with the Diamond princess early on, and authorities which have eschewed lockdowns/mass testing measures until very recently. Despite that, there are only ~12k cases in the whole of Japan, ~3.5k cases in the entire Tokyo prefecture (which is insanely low when comparing to London/Milan/NY et al) with a ~2% CFR despite the world's oldest population. This serious divergence either points to either of two things:
- Masks really, really help limit a person's chance of contracting the virus/mitigate severity of the disease (I. E lots of undetected mild/asymptomatic cases which is fine as long as it doesn't take up Healthcare capacity)
- Somewhere in its migration from China to Europe, the virus mutated to a deadlier form, which would also explain how the virus has not been relatively deadly in SEA countries (seeded from China) with good testing (Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore) as well as in the Middle East (UAE/Qatar/Saudi Arabia/Bahrain/Oman).
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread 

Post#1016 » by Gooner » Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:29 pm

TunaFish wrote:
Gooner wrote:There are only 58 deaths in Belarus, and they have no restrictions. Interesting.


"The number of reported COVID-19 cases in Belarus is growing rapidly, with 6264 cases reported as of 20 April. The government has already implemented containment measures – testing suspect cases, tracing their contacts and isolating the sick. It has also placed emphasis on increasing capacity to manage the surge in COVID-19 patients, while continuing with essential health services for chronic diseases, maternal health and mental health. With community transmission established, it is important to complement these interventions with physical distancing measures."

http://www.euro.who.int/en/countries/belarus/news/news/2020/4/who-expert-mission-to-belarus-recommends-physical-distancing-measures-as-covid-19-virus-transmits-in-the-community

Right, lets be like Belarus.


I mean, 58 deaths is not much for a country with "suicidal" approach, as some of the western brainwashing media label them.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread 

Post#1017 » by TunaFish » Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:38 pm

Gooner wrote:
TunaFish wrote:
Gooner wrote:There are only 58 deaths in Belarus, and they have no restrictions. Interesting.


"The number of reported COVID-19 cases in Belarus is growing rapidly, with 6264 cases reported as of 20 April. The government has already implemented containment measures – testing suspect cases, tracing their contacts and isolating the sick. It has also placed emphasis on increasing capacity to manage the surge in COVID-19 patients, while continuing with essential health services for chronic diseases, maternal health and mental health. With community transmission established, it is important to complement these interventions with physical distancing measures."

http://www.euro.who.int/en/countries/belarus/news/news/2020/4/who-expert-mission-to-belarus-recommends-physical-distancing-measures-as-covid-19-virus-transmits-in-the-community

Right, lets be like Belarus.


I mean, 58 deaths is not much for a country with "suicidal" approach, as some of the western brainwashing media label them.


Take another look, the link is not western media. LOL

There's more:

Flawed advice
Few world leaders can match Lukashenko's scornful derision of the COVID-19 pandemic.

As well as drinking more vodka, his other eyebrow-raising tips for fending off the virus include “turn the steam on in the bathhouse”, “eat more garlic” and “sit behind the wheel of the tractor in the fields”.

When a prominent actor died of COVID-19 at the end of March, the Belarusian leader blamed the victim.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/21/belarus-and-coronavirus-lukashenko-s-business-as-usual-approach-is-mind-blowing-negligence
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread 

Post#1018 » by michaelm » Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:54 pm

theonlyclutch wrote:
michaelm wrote::evil:
DowJones wrote:
Italy got crushed by the virus. It then spread from Italy to the rest of Europe and the United States. I would argue that the United States and other European countries weren't impacted greatly from the spread from Asia. Nobody saw Italy coming.

I think an interesting question is why did Northern Italy get hit so hard?

It seems to be a disease of clusters contracted by interaction in close quarters and appearing to have worse outcomes in such circumstances, perhaps due to higher viral load in regard to which there is some scientific support or perhaps from greater opportunity for superspreaders to superspread which is an opinion of mine.

Italy has an older population, a high rate of smoking particularly among men, and generations of the same family living together. Another factor which has been suggested is that seeing the equivalent of a GP/family physician costs money in Italy, but hospital care including attending hospital emergency departments is without charge, and hence early on people feeling unwell apparently attended hospital casualty departments in droves, milling around with no separation. Also, when things got bad in the cities, young people apparently went home to their families in the countryside. I have seen no evidence myself for the virus mutating to a more lethal variant in Italy, but would be interested if anyone has seen anything scientific about same.

{EDIT the post immediately prior to this one in regard to Italy is probably of greater relevance than anything I said in this post}.


Older population, multiple generations living in the same households, as well as high population in proximity to each other describes Japan, South Korea, HK and Taiwan to a T. Japan in particular has high proximity to China, a big potential seed of cases with the Diamond princess early on, and authorities which have eschewed lockdowns/mass testing measures until very recently. Despite that, there are only ~12k cases in the whole of Japan, ~3.5k cases in the entire Tokyo prefecture (which is insanely low when comparing to London/Milan/NY et al) with a ~2% CFR despite the world's oldest population. This serious divergence either points to either of two things:
- Masks really, really help limit a person's chance of contracting the virus/mitigate severity of the disease (I. E lots of undetected mild/asymptomatic cases which is fine as long as it doesn't take up Healthcare capacity)
- Somewhere in its migration from China to Europe, the virus mutated to a deadlier form, which would also explain how the virus has not been relatively deadly in SEA countries (seeded from China) with good testing (Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore) as well as in the Middle East (UAE/Qatar/Saudi Arabia/Bahrain/Oman).

Taiwan, South Korea et al did take the disease very seriously early on with measures short of complete lockdown, possibly because of their experience with SARS, and masks may well be of some benefit. Of the order of 600 of the first 1000 cases in South Korea were attributed to one super spreader who was at a prolonged church service.

A sister ship of the Diamond Princess, the Ruby Princess was associated with an even bigger disaster here with more cases and deaths than the Diamond Princess, 10% of total Australian cases and 19 deaths in Australia, which are actually included in the Australian statistics unlike Japan and the Diamond Princess, as well as 2 further deaths and a number of other cases Internationally, after being allowed to dock and unload 2700 passengers in Sydney, obviously a major stuff-up but reputedly partly due to the ship being considered low risk having recently been only to Australia and NZ. Numerous other cases and a significant number of other deaths in Australia also were of cruise ship origin on other ships. Sure maybe the virus is prone to mutation in such circumstances and causes the clusters, and also mutated in Northern Italy, I just haven’t seen anything scientific supporting this myself as I said. Maybe the virus attenuates if it doesn’t become widespread.

I guess the epidemiology of the virus will eventually be defined, but it certainly doesn’t seem to be at the moment, hence speculation including mine in this post.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread 

Post#1019 » by dhsilv2 » Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:55 pm

Lucky Clover wrote:
DowJones wrote:
Topofthekey wrote:Yes, the entire world was caught off guard by the virus

But the point is, most Asian countries reacted accordingly, with whatever information they had at the time

Trump and Europe did not

But they are also the most vocal right now in trying to deflect blame. Some people in the UK blame 5G. Germany blames China. Trump supporters are pushing conspiracy theories ranging from China unleashing the virus to kill Americans to Bill Gates creating the virus so that he can tag everyone with digital implants

It's absurd


Italy got crushed by the virus. It then spread from Italy to the rest of Europe and the United States. I would argue that the United States and other European countries weren't impacted greatly from the spread from Asia. Nobody saw Italy coming.

I think an interesting question is why did Northern Italy get hit so hard?


One theory I've heard about Northern Italy (might be a myth, not sure) is that the textile industry is there and they have a lot of Chinese workers that routinely fly back to China (supposedly even direct flights to Wuhan). That along with an older population as another poster mentioned and the nature of it all happening so quickly to overwhelm their hospitals probably plays a big part in why they were hit the hardest in terms of deaths.


The world is just far too interconnected for these things to be a surprise to anyone. I work in a relatively small office, about 300 people in the two buildings that we occupy and just in january and frebruary we had over 200 visitors from outside the US in the office. My boss alone was in southern asia and europe (multiple trips) for about 3 weeks out of the first 9 weeks of the year. Her boss travels more, and so on.

Anyone who didn't see this coming doesn't understand 2020 and how connected business and pleasure are with the rest of the world.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread 

Post#1020 » by DowJones » Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:57 pm

As an American my question is why was NY hit so much harder than California if the primary spread of the virus was from China? LA and San Francisco both had substantially more flights to and from China than NY. If the theory is that America wasn't initially prepared for this virus to spread from Asia, why weren't those 2 cities hit harder?

That is what leads me back to Italy. Maybe it was the spread from Italy to America that was the cause of most of the outbreaks in this country. It could explain why Detroit was hit so hard. Detroit is a popular connecting airport for international travel.I also know that there has been some reporting that ties most of the cases in NY to Italy and not China. That would change the way we view the outbreak and how it spread to our country. Maybe America did better than we initially thought with our response to the outbreak in China, we just didn't think it would come to us from Italy. Those are important questions to answer as it will determine how we respond to the next crisis.

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