2016-17 Rookie Watch thread

[skones]

@Mike_Schmitz
Jaylen Brown last 10 games: 17.4 PTS and 7.7 REB per 40 on 56% from 2 and 40.7% from 3. In a league hungry for good wings, Cs got one at #3.

Brown a great case for importance of taking college situation into account. Had no space @ Cal. Must scout pre NCAA.

Last 10 games per 40:
W. Hernangomez: 16.5 pts, 14.5 reb, 3.2 ast, 21.6 PER
Dario Saric: 24.6 pt, 11.7 reb, 4.9 ast, 19.9 PER
Malcolm Brogdon: 20.1 pts, 3.2 reb, 5.4 ast, 17.3 PER
Buddy Hield: 19.0 pts, 4.9 reb, 2.4 ast, 14.6 PER
Jaylen Brown: 17.4 pts, 7.7 reb, 1.3 ast, 12.9 PER
Yogi Ferrell: 13.8 pts, 4.5 reb, 7.0 ast, 12.6 PER
Marquess Chiss: 15.8 pts, 6.3 reb, 1.9 ast, 12.3 PER
Jamal Murray: 19.5 pts, 3.7 reb, 3.7 ast, 11.5 PER
Brandon Ingram: 12.3 pts, 5.4 reb, 2.7 ast, 7.0 PER

So basically, even in his cherry-picked games, he's been average among the rookies who've played (mostly low picks in a mediocre year) - turns out everyone looks pretty good per 40, since no one actually plays that many minutes. I think I'll skip taking the college situation into account. But, at least he's not Brandon Ingram...

I think the only other player in those 10 games starting for a playoff team in that group is Jamal Murray (is he starting?).

You also havent included FG% in those either, which is part of the pat on the back for Jaylen for 52% 2pfg and 40.7% 3pfg

Those following the Celtics would understand the significance of his play since Avery Bradley went down.. he's shown us his star potential on both ends and scored efficiently. Some beautiful athletic moves too.

Which is fine, but who on god's green earth believes Jaylen Brown is going to sustain that 40.7% number from three? Answer: Nobody

[bwgood77]

Read on Twitter

[gaspar]

Marquese Chriss' block party:

https://streamable.com/ujpf3

[ATTL]

Since we're using per 40's
Tyler ulis per 40 last 10 games
19.4 ppg, 11.5 APG, 2.3 spg, 2.6 to pg, 51% fg%
He's been a better point guard than Brandon knight all year but the suns were trying(and failed) to build value for knight to get a trade. Now that the deadline has passed ulis is getting all of the backup minutes and has thrived.

[GreenBloodedC]

Last 10 games per 40:
W. Hernangomez: 16.5 pts, 14.5 reb, 3.2 ast, 21.6 PER
Dario Saric: 24.6 pt, 11.7 reb, 4.9 ast, 19.9 PER
Malcolm Brogdon: 20.1 pts, 3.2 reb, 5.4 ast, 17.3 PER
Buddy Hield: 19.0 pts, 4.9 reb, 2.4 ast, 14.6 PER
Jaylen Brown: 17.4 pts, 7.7 reb, 1.3 ast, 12.9 PER
Yogi Ferrell: 13.8 pts, 4.5 reb, 7.0 ast, 12.6 PER
Marquess Chiss: 15.8 pts, 6.3 reb, 1.9 ast, 12.3 PER
Jamal Murray: 19.5 pts, 3.7 reb, 3.7 ast, 11.5 PER
Brandon Ingram: 12.3 pts, 5.4 reb, 2.7 ast, 7.0 PER

So basically, even in his cherry-picked games, he's been average among the rookies who've played (mostly low picks in a mediocre year) - turns out everyone looks pretty good per 40, since no one actually plays that many minutes. I think I'll skip taking the college situation into account. But, at least he's not Brandon Ingram...

I think the only other player in those 10 games starting for a playoff team in that group is Jamal Murray (is he starting?).

You also havent included FG% in those either, which is part of the pat on the back for Jaylen for 52% 2pfg and 40.7% 3pfg

Those following the Celtics would understand the significance of his play since Avery Bradley went down.. he's shown us his star potential on both ends and scored efficiently. Some beautiful athletic moves too.

Which is fine, but who on god's green earth believes Jaylen Brown is going to sustain that 40.7% number from three? Answer: Nobody

47% since the allstar break actually. But who's counting.

[skones]

I think the only other player in those 10 games starting for a playoff team in that group is Jamal Murray (is he starting?).

You also havent included FG% in those either, which is part of the pat on the back for Jaylen for 52% 2pfg and 40.7% 3pfg

Those following the Celtics would understand the significance of his play since Avery Bradley went down.. he's shown us his star potential on both ends and scored efficiently. Some beautiful athletic moves too.

Which is fine, but who on god's green earth believes Jaylen Brown is going to sustain that 40.7% number from three? Answer: Nobody

47% since the allstar break actually. But who's counting.

You able to count the whole 6 game sample size you're citing too?

It's nice that he's playing well right now, but the point still stands.

[Dan Z]

Since we're using per 40's
Tyler ulis per 40 last 10 games
19.4 ppg, 11.5 APG, 2.3 spg, 2.6 to pg, 51% fg%
He's been a better point guard than Brandon knight all year but the suns were trying(and failed) to build value for knight to get a trade. Now that the deadline has passed ulis is getting all of the backup minutes and has thrived.

What do you think of his future going forward (beyond this year)?

[ATTL]

Since we're using per 40's
Tyler ulis per 40 last 10 games
19.4 ppg, 11.5 APG, 2.3 spg, 2.6 to pg, 51% fg%
He's been a better point guard than Brandon knight all year but the suns were trying(and failed) to build value for knight to get a trade. Now that the deadline has passed ulis is getting all of the backup minutes and has thrived.

What do you think of his future going forward (beyond this year)?

I usually don't like players that are small for their position but I like Tyler's ability as a floor general. He makes other players better and has good chemistry with his team mates.
I think he's a good backup at worst in his prime.

[Kobblehead]

Dario Saric's averages through the month of March so far: 16 points, 7.5 boards, 5 assists

He has the counting stats to win his 2nd consecutive RotM to close out the year. Not sure if any of the other rooks will catch him at that point.

[skones]

Since we're using per 40's
Tyler ulis per 40 last 10 games
19.4 ppg, 11.5 APG, 2.3 spg, 2.6 to pg, 51% fg%
He's been a better point guard than Brandon knight all year but the suns were trying(and failed) to build value for knight to get a trade. Now that the deadline has passed ulis is getting all of the backup minutes and has thrived.

What do you think of his future going forward (beyond this year)?

I usually don't like players that are small for their position but I like Tyler's ability as a floor general. He makes other players better and has good chemistry with his team mates.
I think he's a good backup at worst in his prime.

I like him quite a bit, but his slight build with his stature makes me think he'll be susceptible to injury down the line. His defense will be the biggest defining factor with him. Will he be that surprise starter? Will he be a microwave bench guy? Either way I think he definitely has a place in this league. If guys start to push him around and bang him up a little, you wonder if he tones down the ball pressure where he's been successful to this juncture.

[perempe20]

Ulis vs IT was one of the most entertaining matchups I've ever seen.

[BMatt07]

Dario Saric's averages through the month of March so far: 16 points, 7.5 boards, 5 assists

He has the counting stats to win his 2nd consecutive RotM to close out the year. Not sure if any of the other rooks will catch him at that point.

Saric has had a good stretch, but he has not had the better season.

MB: 10.6 PTS, 45% FG, 43% 3PT, 55% TS, 3 REB, 4 AST, 1.1 STL, 0.1 BLK, 1.5 TOV, 14.4 PER, 3.0 WS.

DS : 11.6 PTS, 40% FG, 31% 3PT, 50% TS, 6 REB, 2 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.3 BLK, 2.0 TOV, 12.3 PER, 0.7 WS.

Almost every advanced statistic points to Brodgon being the superior player (PER, TS%, OWS, WS, OBPM, BPM, and VORP).

Saric scores 1 PPG more per game on 5% more usage, 1.5 more 3 point attempts, 1 more field goal, and 1 more free throw, in comparison to Brogdon.

[bwgood77]

Dario Saric's averages through the month of March so far: 16 points, 7.5 boards, 5 assists

He has the counting stats to win his 2nd consecutive RotM to close out the year. Not sure if any of the other rooks will catch him at that point.

I don't think so either. He's playing very well. I really liked him coming into the draft. With him, Simmons and Embiid, if they can stay healthy, and if you can get the Lakers pick (they could still easily drop to 4 in lottery, though as Suns fan we expect them to get #1). It's also bitter sweet, because if you DO get it, we will always know we traded that pick for Knight and likely could have two top 5 picks like you guys might.

Even if you get 4 and 5, grabbing Monk and Smith Jr would be a nice backcourt to join that frontcourt.

[bwgood77]

Dario Saric's averages through the month of March so far: 16 points, 7.5 boards, 5 assists

He has the counting stats to win his 2nd consecutive RotM to close out the year. Not sure if any of the other rooks will catch him at that point.

Saric has had a good stretch, but he has not had the better season.

MB: 10.6 PTS, 45% FG, 43% 3PT, 55% TS, 3 REB, 4 AST, 1.1 STL, 0.1 BLK, 1.5 TOV, 14.4 PER, 3.0 WS.

DS : 11.6 PTS, 40% FG, 31% 3PT, 50% TS, 6 REB, 2 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.3 BLK, 2.0 TOV, 12.3 PER, 0.7 WS.

Almost every advanced statistic points to Brodgon being the superior player (PER, TS%, OWS, WS, OBPM, BPM, and VORP).

Saric scores 1 PPG more per game on 5% more usage, 1.5 more 3 point attempts, 1 more field goal, and 1 more free throw, in comparison to Brogdon.

Brogdon is definitely close, and if people voting for the Philly guys give any votes to Embiid, then Brogdon could take it. It's definitely between those two, and possibly Embiid if games played isn't factored in, but it very likely will be.

[bwgood77]

What do you think of his future going forward (beyond this year)?

I usually don't like players that are small for their position but I like Tyler's ability as a floor general. He makes other players better and has good chemistry with his team mates.
I think he's a good backup at worst in his prime.

I like him quite a bit, but his slight build with his stature makes me think he'll be susceptible to injury down the line. His defense will be the biggest defining factor with him. Will he be that surprise starter? Will he be a microwave bench guy? Either way I think he definitely has a place in this league. If guys start to push him around and bang him up a little, you wonder if he tones down the ball pressure where he's been successful to this juncture.

Yes, we all think he is a great pick in the 2nd, but his best game obviously came against a terrible defensive PG (though Smart guarded him some). Our biggest fear is not drafting a PG and Bledsoe later going down to injury, but many prefer Jackson, unless we get the first pick, as a Fultz/Booker backcourt would be nice.

[Kolkmania]

Dario Saric's averages through the month of March so far: 16 points, 7.5 boards, 5 assists

He has the counting stats to win his 2nd consecutive RotM to close out the year. Not sure if any of the other rooks will catch him at that point.

Saric has had a good stretch, but he has not had the better season.

MB: 10.6 PTS, 45% FG, 43% 3PT, 55% TS, 3 REB, 4 AST, 1.1 STL, 0.1 BLK, 1.5 TOV, 14.4 PER, 3.0 WS.

DS : 11.6 PTS, 40% FG, 31% 3PT, 50% TS, 6 REB, 2 AST, 0.6 STL, 0.3 BLK, 2.0 TOV, 12.3 PER, 0.7 WS.

Almost every advanced statistic points to Brodgon being the superior player (PER, TS%, OWS, WS, OBPM, BPM, and VORP).

Saric scores 1 PPG more per game on 5% more usage, 1.5 more 3 point attempts, 1 more field goal, and 1 more free throw, in comparison to Brogdon.

Has there ever been a ROTY that didn't win a single Rookie of the Month award? Personally I think Embiid deserves it, just because his impact in ~30 games was bigger than all the other rookies in ~80 games. However, if you disqualify him, Brogdon and Saric are the best options. Saric the more entertaining player, while Brogdon the more consistent one.

[Marcus]

Thought for sure there would be some Skal love in here.

Watch on YouTube

[skones]

I usually don't like players that are small for their position but I like Tyler's ability as a floor general. He makes other players better and has good chemistry with his team mates.
I think he's a good backup at worst in his prime.

I like him quite a bit, but his slight build with his stature makes me think he'll be susceptible to injury down the line. His defense will be the biggest defining factor with him. Will he be that surprise starter? Will he be a microwave bench guy? Either way I think he definitely has a place in this league. If guys start to push him around and bang him up a little, you wonder if he tones down the ball pressure where he's been successful to this juncture.

Yes, we all think he is a great pick in the 2nd, but his best game obviously came against a terrible defensive PG (though Smart guarded him some). Our biggest fear is not drafting a PG and Bledsoe later going down to injury, but many prefer Jackson, unless we get the first pick, as a Fultz/Booker backcourt would be nice.

Team Ball for me. (pun intended)

[bwgood77]

Thought for sure there would be some Skal love in here.

Watch on YouTube

I had heard a lot about how well he has been playing lately. I just don't think many had watched him or were aware of how well he has been doing lately. A number of us liked him in the draft. I was very surprised he dropped so far. If Papa turns into anything, that will have been a good trade for the Kings. Bogdan as well if he ever comes over and plays well.

[Marcus]

Thought for sure there would be some Skal love in here.

Watch on YouTube

I had heard a lot about how well he has been playing lately. I just don't think many had watched him or were aware of how well he has been doing lately. A number of us liked him in the draft. I was very surprised he dropped so far. If Papa turns into anything, that will have been a good trade for the Kings. Bogdan as well if he ever comes over and plays well.

Was surprised to see how poorly he adapted to college ball last year I fully expected him to challenge Ben for number last year, same with Jaylen Brown. League spacing makes a huge difference.