NBA MVP Discussion 20/21 (Fresh poll ➥ Vote)

[eminence]

Luckily Gobert has 205 million examples of how much the Jazz value him, cause damn the media doesn't.

He's still top 15 in the ladder. Not too bad.

Having a clearly top 5 guy in the top 15 is pretty bad. Kinda like putting LeBron 8th or some ****.

[Ron Swanson]

I know people love to **** on box stat composite metrics, but there's only been three MVP winners in the past two decades that haven't led the league (Lebron is only Top-3 in one) in any single of the following numbers: PER, WS/48, VORP, BPM (Iverson, Derrick Rose, Steve Nash) And they're basically all considered (maybe throw Westbrook in there) as the weakest/most controversial MVP cases of this past generation.

Obviously Lebron deserves to be in the conversation, but this is why so many people roll their eyes every time ESPN or NBA.com come out with their MVP rankings and not only put Lebron #1, but act as if he's got some significant lead over the field when the Lakers aren't even the #1 seed. Will be interesting to see bigger sample size RPM (early season RPM is noisy as **** FYI) and, if Lebron can't keep his hold on the #1 ranking, I wonder if people will still cling to the MVP front-runner narrative. Because as of now, it certainly looks like to most neutral observers, that the media already made up their minds about crowning him his 5th MVP so long as he put up a nice stat line on a Top-2ish seed in the West.

[mademan]

I know people love to **** on box stat composite metrics, but there's only been three MVP winners in the past two decades that haven't led the league (Lebron is only Top-3 in one) in any single of the following numbers: PER, WS/48, VORP, BPM (Iverson, Derrick Rose, Steve Nash) And they're basically all considered (maybe throw Westbrook in there) as the weakest/most controversial MVP cases of this past generation.

Obviously Lebron deserves to be in the conversation, but this is why so many people roll their eyes every time ESPN or NBA.com come out with their MVP rankings and not only put Lebron #1, but act as if he's got some significant lead over the field when the Lakers aren't even the #1 seed. Will be interesting to see bigger sample size RPM (early season RPM is noisy as **** FYI) and, if Lebron can't keep his hold on the #1 ranking, I wonder if people will still cling to the MVP front-runner narrative. Because as of now, it certainly looks like to most neutral observers, that the media already made up their minds about crowning him his 5th MVP so long as he put up a nice stat line on a Top-2ish seed in the West.

I mean this is the kind of season that lends itself to an extremely weak MVP. Embiid has already missed like a fifth of his season and the only other guy who should be in real contention based on team record and play is Dame. And he also doesnt lead in any of those categories. Voters are either gonna have to go for the guy who misses like 15 games in a 72 game season or vote for a weak MVP. This is that kind of season

[vancity604]

This is one of the weakest MVP races in NBA history. No player has really stepped up to the plate this year and truly deserves the MVP. In recent years you had guys like Giannis, Harden, Westbrook, Curry, Durant, Lebron..... all these guts stepped up and it was clear they were going for the mvp. This year.. the only 2 guys that are playing with that determination are embiid and jokic. Embiid has missed too many games and Nuggets have a poor record. With Davis out the Lakers will lose more frequently and Lebron will no longer be the favorite by default. I think Lillard or Doncic would end up winning it if their teams go on a winning streak and they finish in top 4 in the west.

[BNM]

https://www.nba.com/news/kia-mvp-ladder-feb-19-edition

1) Lebron
2) Embiid
3) Dame
4) Steph
5) Jokic
6) Mitchell
7) Giannis
8) KD
9) Leonard
10) Harden

Narrative wise:

Other guys have a neutral narrative (embiid, dame, jokic, leonard), meaning that they are just superstar players having great seaons, there isn't anything new to them as far as storyline.

Steph has a slightly positive narrative being the unlucky player (because of klay's injury, obviously kd's departure 2 years ago) who's carrying a trash team.

Disagree totally on your narrative section. How is Dame neutral while Steph is slightly positive? Dame is carrying an inferior team to a better record. He hasn't played with a single all star since Aldridge left six years ago and has been carrying trash teams ever since.

That alone gives him a better narrative than Steph, and then there are his late game heroics. He is the most clutch player in the NBA, and it's not just the game winners he is hitting. He is flat out destroying the league in Clutch Time. According to the official NBA Clutch Time stats, Damian Lillard is scoring 51.9 pts/36 with a TS% of .844 in Clutch Time minutes. No one else comes close to those stats. And, he's carrying a injury ravaged roster to close win after close win after close win.

Here's the Clutch Time stats for the leading MVP candidates:



That shows that Lillard is both the most prolific and most efficient Clutch Time scorer in the league, by a pretty wide margin. It is also interesting that the top 3 players in the Kia MVP Ladder (LeBron, Embiid and Dame) are the only three that are having a significant positive impact on their teams chances of winning with the game on the line. Of course, with an inferior cast, Lillard is doing a much greater carry job than the other two.

Dame Time is a thing. It's getting traction in the national media and that narrative will get Lillard MVP votes.

[DCasey91]

Harden/Lillard/Curry could well have a massive backend. Harden is a tank and having MVP impact like the rest of them. (Well that’s because he’s been in MVP contention for like 5 years now). That Suns game was was one of the best anyone has played this year.

I’m a 76ers fan and Jokic/Embiid should be MVP but one has missed too many games and one has a poor record so far.

Lebron with Davis out is in a bloodbath.

[LesGrossman]

https://www.nba.com/news/kia-mvp-ladder-feb-19-edition

1) Lebron
2) Embiid
3) Dame
4) Steph
5) Jokic
6) Mitchell
7) Giannis
8) KD
9) Leonard
10) Harden

Advanced metrics don't win you the mvp, it's about counting stats+wins (possibly, winning more than you're expected to win or than the previous year, unlike what jokic and giannis are doing)+not missing games+narrative

At a certain point this thread gotta realize that Lebron has been 1° in all three of the ladders, and in that voters straw poll that that twitter guy did. Obviously I don't agree with it all (jokic at 5th is too low considering he's been the best as far as individual level, kd has no business being that high, etc) but again, lebron has good ppg/rpg/assists, respectable ts% and defense and tos, hasn't missed a game and has a good record (the 2nd best in the nba), he's borderline top 5/easy top 10 best as far as advanced metrics go. Also 5-2 without ad as of now. Embiid has missed 6 games, leonard has missed 7, jokic is 15-13 and he wasn't expected to lose this much after going 46-27 last year, dame is a bad defender and he isn't a stat sheet filler like some other guys, giannis is 16-13 after going 56-17 last year, steph is 16-13 (+ same flaws as dame), mitchell and gobert have an incredible record but they aren't good enough, kd misses and loses too many games, harden doesn't have the insane stat sheet he used to have + he's losing too much, doncic is losing too much.

Narrative wise:
Lebron is the only guy to have a positive narrative on his side, the others either have a neutral one or a negative one. His narrative is: 36 years old goat who has just won the championship and hasn't won an mvp since 2013 despite being the best player in the world (player of the year) in most of those years, meanwhile those who do win the mvp often don't step up or have something missing from their game to maintain their level in the playoffs, while he's notorious to step up his game in the playoffs. That's a great narrative to have.
Other guys have a neutral narrative (embiid, dame, jokic, leonard), meaning that they are just superstar players having great seaons, there isn't anything new to them as far as storyline. Leonard also has a slightly negative narrative in the fact that as he was being considered the best player in the world and better than lebron, rightfully, after being the player of the year in 2019, he failed big time choking a 3-1 lead
Giannis, harden have a negative narrative in being past mvp winners who don't step up in the playoffs and lack something to maintain their level in post season.
Steph has a slightly positive narrative being the unlucky player (because of klay's injury, obviously kd's departure 2 years ago) who's carrying a trash team.
Mitchell and Gobert also slight positive being "newcomers" (as far as mvp candidacy) and being the unexpected first seed playing beautiful basketball.

All in all if you don't understand why Lebron is first and you've followed the nba for a while you're really dumb or a hater.

Also put it this way: there are a number of guys who can be ahead of lebron in one are: -overall individual level/-offensive production/team record/two way level, but all of them have a big disadvantage in some other areas

-Jokic has way better numbers than Lebron, but better enough to overcome a 6 wins, 6 positions (2th seed to 8th seed) difference?
-Embiid has better numbers than lebron, enough to overcome 6 more missed games and 2.5 wins?
-Mitchell and Gobert have 2.5 more wins (while being expected to win less than the lakers on paper), is it enough to put them ahead despite being considerably worse than him as far as numbers/individual level of play?
-Leonard is probably playing slightly better than lebron, enough to overcome 7 more missed games?
-Dame has a more impressive record (compared to supporting cast and expectations), and you can argue he's been better than lebron offensively, but the defensive gap is bag, plus he has 3 less wins and 1 more missed game
--Giannis has been better than lebron if the two ends of the floor (more scoring on higher efficiency, more rebounds and defense), but is it enough to overcome 5.5 wins, 1 more missed game difference?
-Steph has been better offensively, but again, big defense/rebounds/record gap
-Doncic bigger overall production, but even if you'd put his offensive value above lebron's, lebron's defense and record>
-KD way better scoring, and he also has nice rebounds and assists, and I'd say his defense has been superior to lebron's, but his missed games put him out of the equation.
-Harden, way better on offense as he averages 24.4/11.3/7 on 65% TS, but his record, missed games and change of team put him out of the equation


please refer to this post from now on instead of just trolling, if you think lebron has an undeserved lead or the media is just handing it to him

You basically just write a lot of words that say you love lebron (not hard to figure out by your name, you could very well be on his team literally, or his burner) and you think he should get it, and then you add some opinions that are not facts ("36 year old goat who has just won the championship and hasn't won an mvp since 2013 despite being the best player in the world (player of the year) in most of those years"). Heres my opinion: KD has been the best player in the league for a while. When he created an equal situation to lebron (joining superteam) he dominated him easily and won two titles. How many MVP's did he get meanwhile? The whole narrative of old lebron deserving it the most is just wrong. Does Lillard not deserve one? What about those guys who actually play both ends and not just offensive highlights, guys like Kawhi? You create your own definition of what defines the MVP, and then bend reality so that the desired output shows up.

[eyeatoma]

Give this man the MVP already!

Oh and he has 25/8 at the half.

Read on Twitter

[HMFFL]

LeBron James +170
Joel Embiid +500
Nikola Jokic +500
Stephen Curry +1200
Luka Doncic +1200
Giannis Antetokounmpo +1400
Kevin Durant +1600
Damian Lillard +2000


I don't agree with these odds at all.

Sent from my SM-N975U using RealGM mobile app

[rzzzzz]

Give this man the MVP already!
Oh and he has 25/8 at the half.

50 for the game. Carries the team on his sore back, pulling away at the end.

[Big J]

Tonight JoJo made a statement.

[RB34]

Tonight JoJo made a statement.

But he doesn’t have the narrative blah blah blah

[OriginalRed]

These next few stretch of games will be very important for Lebron's MVP chances.

[Floody100]

You’ve only got to look at Embiid’s PER this year to realise he should be well & truly the favourite.

It’s absolutely ludicrous that Lebron’s #1 on this board.

[r0drig0lac]

...

[stormi]

It’s absolutely ludicrous that Lebron’s #1 on this board.

But he's old!

[nzahir]

These next few stretch of games will be very important for Lebron's MVP chances.

I agree, I just hedged my Lebron bet (at like 9 to 1, not these odds) and bet Embiid

Lebron is still the mvp for me b/c Embiid has missed some games and Lebron still has a crazy plus minus when he sits. Somehow they are still negative when he sits and AD still plays. Highest RPM, usually the winner or close to it

Lebron also got robbed last yr and Lebron is still the worlds best player when it comes down to it. I think that stuff matters when things are very close

[SeniorWalker]

LeBron should not be the leading candidate at all. Embiid has been much better all season and has the #1 seed. Hopefully this trend continues because I'd hate to see the media try to steal the award from embiid like they did giannis last year. Giannis had to have arguably a top 3 regular season of all time just to create the separation needed from LeBron's narrative, which grew stronger every time he had a decent game and had nothing to do with his actual on court case, which giannis was wayyyyy ahead in.
LeBron did and usually does play great but as has been the case over the last 8 years, someone else has a clearly better regular season with the wins to boot and yet the media turns a blind eye because he's asset #1. I really have always liked LeBron, but I hate this side of the game, the toxicity.

[parapooper]

I know people love to **** on box stat composite metrics, but there's only been three MVP winners in the past two decades that haven't led the league (Lebron is only Top-3 in one) in any single of the following numbers: PER, WS/48, VORP, BPM (Iverson, Derrick Rose, Steve Nash) And they're basically all considered (maybe throw Westbrook in there) as the weakest/most controversial MVP cases of this past generation.

Obviously Lebron deserves to be in the conversation, but this is why so many people roll their eyes every time ESPN or NBA.com come out with their MVP rankings and not only put Lebron #1, but act as if he's got some significant lead over the field when the Lakers aren't even the #1 seed. Will be interesting to see bigger sample size RPM (early season RPM is noisy as **** FYI) and, if Lebron can't keep his hold on the #1 ranking, I wonder if people will still cling to the MVP front-runner narrative. Because as of now, it certainly looks like to most neutral observers, that the media already made up their minds about crowning him his 5th MVP so long as he put up a nice stat line on a Top-2ish seed in the West.

You forgot 2008 MVP Kobe who was never #1 in any of the stats you listed in his entire career. Meanwhile LeBron was #1 in them 27 times and had 3 years when he was #1 in 2-4 of the 4 and didn't get MVP.

Including Kobe and 2x Nash, 25% of the last 20 MVPs weren't #1 in any of your stats in their MVP years. In fact, they weren't even once #1 in any comprehensive advanced boxscore stat in their entire careers. And in contrast to LeBron those guys weren't #1 in any full impact stat either.

1998 MVP MJ also wasn't #1 in any advanced boxscore stat whatsoever (despite BPM/VORP being retroactively changed to favor MJ)
So it wouldn't be some huge abnormality and favoritism if LeBron won.

Plus LeBron got doubly shafted by Covid MVP-wise: first the closure right after Giannis got hurt last season and now he had the shortest break of any candidate while being 5-10 years older and having one of the worst casts with AD either hobbled or out. So one could argue he deserves some benefit of the doubt if he is among a bunch of candidates with no clear-cut MVP.

[OriginalRed]

These next few stretch of games will be very important for Lebron's MVP chances.

I agree, I just hedged my Lebron bet (at like 9 to 1, not these odds) and bet Embiid

Lebron is still the mvp for me b/c Embiid has missed some games and Lebron still has a crazy plus minus when he sits. Somehow they are still negative when he sits and AD still plays. Highest RPM, usually the winner or close to it

Lebron also got robbed last yr and Lebron is still the worlds best player when it comes down to it. I think that stuff matters when things are very close

I'm sorry but I don't understand how people can claim Lebron got robbed last year lol. All the reasons people are using to claim Lebron's the MVP this year are the exact reasons why Giannis was the MVP last year.

There are always three main components towards MVP on most people's criteria: Winning, Stats, and Supporting Cast.

Winning - Giannis and the Bucks had the best record.
Stats - Giannis had the best stats.
Supporting Cast - Giannis had a fringe all star in middleton and a bunch of roleplayers. No one even close to AD.

The only stat skewed in Lebron's favor was on/off court +/- and that by itself is not enough to warrant giving him the award. I don't wanna hear that "Year 17" crap as the MVP should never be about age, it's about whose having the best season on the best team with the least amount of help and it was Giannis last year.