2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread

_Game7_ · Post #1061 » by **_Game7_** » Fri Dec 23, 2016 4:59 pm

I see Bron finishing top 3 by seasons end. Might win it in a close one.

K_chile22 · Post #1062 » by **K_chile22** » Fri Dec 23, 2016 5:23 pm

laika wrote:Harden probably is the favorite right now. He has a better narrative than anyone else.

There's just one inconvenient fact- Curry dominates Harden in value to the team. Curry's On/Off is far higher. No one will believe this, but the Harden-less Rockets have been just as good as the Curry-less Warriors. And of course the Curry led Warriors are massively better than the Harden led Rockets.

Based on On/Off there is no reasonable case for Harden, Westbrook, Leonard or Durant. The award should only be between Curry and Lebron.

Yeah dude, one individual number tells it all

Bergmaniac · Post #1063 » by **Bergmaniac** » Fri Dec 23, 2016 5:35 pm

laika wrote:Based on On/Off there is no reasonable case for Harden, Westbrook, Leonard or Durant. The award should only be between Curry and Lebron.

Westbrook and Lebron's on/off splits are a lot better than Curry's. LeBron's is +16.2, Westbrook's is +19.1, while Curry's is +8.7.

Impuniti · Post #1064 » by **Impuniti** » Fri Dec 23, 2016 6:26 pm

Bergmaniac wrote:
laika wrote:Based on On/Off there is no reasonable case for Harden, Westbrook, Leonard or Durant. The award should only be between Curry and Lebron.

Westbrook and Lebron's on/off splits are a lot better than Curry's. LeBron's is +16.2, Westbrook's is +19.1, while Curry's is +8.7.

Lebron and Westbrook don't have Kevin Durant coming on when they go off. Curry dominates +/- but he shouldn't be in MVP conversation (top 3 at least) unless he drastically improves his game. He's still around top 5/6 but no way should he get it over Lebron, KD, Westbrook or Harden as of right now.

Triples333 · Post #1065 » by **Triples333** » Fri Dec 23, 2016 6:42 pm

As far as overt dominant production coupled with team wins and "load", its Harden and then the rest. The triple-double is a media darling that will keep Westbrook in the convo even if the team wins won't be there, and Lebron despite a somewhat underwhelming year will be in the mix and likely ahead of KD/Curry/kawhi, but as it stands they're all moot points to Harden and his cast of non All stars.

ChartFiction · Post #1066 » by **ChartFiction** » Fri Dec 23, 2016 8:01 pm

fromthetop321 wrote:I see Bron finishing top 3 by seasons end. Might win it in a close one.

Not a chance

Larry David · Post #1067 » by **Larry David** » Fri Dec 23, 2016 10:15 pm

ChartFiction wrote:
fromthetop321 wrote:I see Bron finishing top 3 by seasons end. Might win it in a close one.

Not a chance

pretty good chance

TroubleS0me · Post #1068 » by **TroubleS0me** » Sat Dec 24, 2016 12:14 am

laika wrote:Harden probably is the favorite right now. He has a better narrative than anyone else.

Westbrook has the better narrative, he lost KD,Ibaka & he has the triple doubles going 4 him , while Harden has the better supporting cast.

QPR · Post #1069 » by **QPR** » Sat Dec 24, 2016 3:23 am

I think Harden would need to keep at least the current win differential over OKC (currently four games) and probably even increase it - ie if the Rockets win 55, hope OKC doesn't win more than 46ish.

They have both been other-wordly, but the difference between OKC with and without Westbrook on the floor is astronomical. If they can take their division over Utah (which will likely mean 50+ wins) and be a four seed, I don't see how it won't go to Westbrook unless the Rockets are winning 58-60 and being a top three seed. Houston are a pretty deep team and don't suffer nearly as much when Harden sits.

TurboTitan · Post #1070 » by **TurboTitan** » Sat Dec 24, 2016 3:28 am

I really want to see Harden win it

laika · Post #1071 » by **laika** » Sat Dec 24, 2016 7:16 am

Bergmaniac wrote:
laika wrote:Based on On/Off there is no reasonable case for Harden, Westbrook, Leonard or Durant. The award should only be between Curry and Lebron.

Westbrook and Lebron's on/off splits are a lot better than Curry's. LeBron's is +16.2, Westbrook's is +19.1, while Curry's is +8.7.

I don't know where you are getting your numbers. Here are the numbers for the top 7 MVP candidates according to NBA.com-
----------------On----Off----On/Off
Curry--------17.9--+3.9----14.0
James-------14.5----7.2----21.7

Paul----------14.7----3.9----18.6
Westbrook--6.5---11.4----17.9

Durant------15.4---+8.2-----7.2
Harden-------8.7---+0.4-----8.3
Leonard-----6.0---+6.9-----NEG 0.9

Curry or Lebron is in the lead according to whether you value Oncourt or On/Off more. Paul's numbers look good until you realize that the whole Clipper starting 5 look really good. Paul's number benefits a lot from the Clipper's platoon system. Curry and James don't have that. They are easily the top Warrior and Cav in On/Off. Westbrook has a good On/Off but is way too far behind in Oncourt to be seriously considered. Durant, Harden and especially Leonard are not in the discussion.

Post #1072 » by **bondom34** » Sat Dec 24, 2016 7:27 am

laika wrote:
Bergmaniac wrote:
laika wrote:Based on On/Off there is no reasonable case for Harden, Westbrook, Leonard or Durant. The award should only be between Curry and Lebron.

Westbrook and Lebron's on/off splits are a lot better than Curry's. LeBron's is +16.2, Westbrook's is +19.1, while Curry's is +8.7.

I don't know where you are getting your numbers. Here are the numbers for the top 7 MVP candidates according to NBA.com-
----------------On----Off----On/Off
Curry--------17.9--+3.9----14.0
James-------14.5----7.2----21.7

Paul----------14.7----3.9----18.6
Westbrook--6.5---11.4----17.9

Durant------15.4---+8.2-----7.2
Harden-------8.7---+0.4-----8.3
Leonard-----6.0---+6.9-----NEG 0.9

Curry or Lebron is in the lead according to whether you value Oncourt or On/Off more. Paul's numbers look good until you realize that the whole Clipper starting 5 look really good. Paul's number benefits a lot from the Clipper's platoon system. Curry and James don't have that. They are easily the top Warrior and Cav in On/Off. Westbrook has a good On/Off but is way too far behind in Oncourt to be seriously considered. Durant, Harden and especially Leonard are not in the discussion.

I don't know where yours are from, but Curry is at a 9.6 on NBA.com, and 8.7 on BBR.

http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612744/onoffcourt-advanced/?sort=NET_RATING&dir=-1
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/GSW/2017/on-off/

Edit: And I don't know why this would be the only criteria used.

laika · Post #1073 » by **laika** » Sat Dec 24, 2016 7:34 am

bondom34 wrote:
http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612744/onoffcourt-advanced/?sort=NET_RATING&dir=-1
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/GSW/2017/on-off/

Edit: And I don't know why this would be the only criteria used.

On/Off is a much better rating than Net Rating. Basketball reference isn't listing On/Off numbers at all there.

It's not the only criteria. But On/Off and Oncourt is one of the most important. Most of the people here are basically ignoring it.

Post #1074 » by **bondom34** » Sat Dec 24, 2016 7:38 am

laika wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612744/onoffcourt-advanced/?sort=NET_RATING&dir=-1
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/GSW/2017/on-off/

Edit: And I don't know why this would be the only criteria used.

On/Off is a much better rating than Net Rating. Basketball reference isn't listing On/Off numbers at all there.

It's not the only criteria. But On/Off and Oncourt is one of the most important. Most of the people here are basically ignoring it.

I linked on/off.

Also it doesn't account for teammates, but that is on/off.

laika · Post #1075 » by **laika** » Sat Dec 24, 2016 7:42 am

bondom34 wrote:
laika wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612744/onoffcourt-advanced/?sort=NET_RATING&dir=-1
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/GSW/2017/on-off/

Edit: And I don't know why this would be the only criteria used.

On/Off is a much better rating than Net Rating. Basketball reference isn't listing On/Off numbers at all there.

It's not the only criteria. But On/Off and Oncourt is one of the most important. Most of the people here are basically ignoring it.

I linked on/off.

Also it doesn't account for teammates, but that is on/off.

Net ORating is a lot different than On/Off.

Post #1076 » by **bondom34** » Sat Dec 24, 2016 7:42 am

laika wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
laika wrote:
On/Off is a much better rating than Net Rating. Basketball reference isn't listing On/Off numbers at all there.

It's not the only criteria. But On/Off and Oncourt is one of the most important. Most of the people here are basically ignoring it.

I linked on/off.

Also it doesn't account for teammates, but that is on/off.

Net ORting is a lot different than On/Off.

I didn't link that. Look again. Overall on/off.

MrBigShot · Post #1077 » by **MrBigShot** » Sat Dec 24, 2016 7:51 am

If Westbrook & the thunder keep this up it would be a total joke if he didn't win it.

K_chile22 · Post #1078 » by **K_chile22** » Sat Dec 24, 2016 3:31 pm

MrBigShot wrote:If Westbrook & the thunder keep this up it would be a total joke if he didn't win it.

It would be more of a joke if a guy on a 6th/7th seed won MVP. Especially since they're worse than so many people thought they would be

Wraps_fan · Post #1079 » by **Wraps_fan** » Sat Dec 24, 2016 3:39 pm

K_chile22 wrote:
MrBigShot wrote:If Westbrook & the thunder keep this up it would be a total joke if he didn't win it.

It would be more of a joke if a guy on a 6th/7th seed won MVP. Especially since they're worse than so many people thought they would be

While I do somewhat agree, and if I'm not mistaken there's only been like 1 or 2 times in NBA history where a player on an under #4 seed team won the MVP, but at the same time, the guy is averaging a triple double which hasn't been seen since the early 60s, and it makes for a good story since it's the first year of having no Kevin Durant.

This would be an acceptable time for a player on a 6/7 seed to win MVP, just because of the numbers he's putting up combined with the fact he's carrying a team without a ton of talent and after a top 3 player left them

EDIT: Oh, and I also disagree that they are worse than people thought they would be. Everyone I know was having them finishing in that 6-8 seed range with a record around 48-34.

K_chile22 · Post #1080 » by **K_chile22** » Sat Dec 24, 2016 4:03 pm

Wraps_fan wrote:
K_chile22 wrote:
MrBigShot wrote:If Westbrook & the thunder keep this up it would be a total joke if he didn't win it.

It would be more of a joke if a guy on a 6th/7th seed won MVP. Especially since they're worse than so many people thought they would be

While I do somewhat agree, and if I'm not mistaken there's only been like 1 or 2 times in NBA history where a player on an under #4 seed team won the MVP, but at the same time, the guy is averaging a triple double which hasn't been seen since the early 60s, and it makes for a good story since it's the first year of having no Kevin Durant.

This would be an acceptable time for a player on a 6/7 seed to win MVP, just because of the numbers he's putting up combined with the fact he's carrying a team without a ton of talent and after a top 3 player left them

EDIT: Oh, and I also disagree that they are worse than people thought they would be. Everyone I know was having them finishing in that 6-8 seed range with a record around 48-34.

Once with Moses Malone. There are so many other guys doing insane things on better teams but because they don't hit the arbitrary number of 10 on assists or rebounds what they are doing isn't as impressive for some reason