MVP Discussion [19/20] [part I] - voting reopened

[clyde21]

1. Giannis
2. Luka
3. Towns

everyone else

[Tennis19]

Right now
1 Greek Freak
2 Luka
3 Harden
4 LBJ
5 AD

I think Giannis and Harden can maintain this pace all season long. Luka playing lights out, but i dont think he can keep this up. AD numbers will get better, and Lebron should stay the same except less ast. I think both Bucks and Lakers will finish with 60ish wins.

End of season voting
Giannis
Davis
Harden
Luka
Lebron

[mediocrityrules]

Giannis was ok with his 19 minutes and a blowout

Read on Twitter

[LoneyROY]

3 players with PERs over 32 now. Pretty crazy.

[LoneyROY]

Another funny stat.

Harden is currently averaging 39 ppg on 64 TS%.

[scrabbarista]

3 players with PERs over 32 now. Pretty crazy.

1st, 2nd, and 3rd in NBA history.

The rest of the top ten is three Wilt Chamberlains, two Michael Jordans, and two LeBron Jameses.

[LesGrossman]

This is just false. LA has the number one defense in the league. You don’t achieve that if one guy is causing you to play 4 on 5 defensively every possession he’s on the floor.

Lakers’ DRTG:

Davis ON, LeBron OFF:
109.5 DRTG

Davis ON, LeBron ON:
102.9 DRTG

Dwight ON, LeBron OFF:
106.0 DRTG

Dwight ON, LeBron ON:
103.5 DRTG

Davis ON, Dwight ON, LeBron OFF:
104.8 DRTG

Davis ON, Dwight ON, LeBron ON:
95.0 DRTG

LeBron is very clearly the third best defender on the #1 rated defensive team. And once you factor in minutes (considering he’s playing 35 mpg to Dwight’s 20) he’s providing the second most defensive value on the Lakers behind Anthony Davis. Which isn’t an insult considering he’s the league’s DPOY thus far.

This reminds me of that southpark episode about photoshopped images that somehow become more credible than the ugly reality. I said "all stats aside" and i talk about the eye test, and predictably a flood of stats are delivered.

1. your analogy makes zero sense. The statistics are drawn from the exact same "ugly reality" as your opinions of things. This reminds me why deflectionary tangents are so very irritating to read. The flood of stats calls into question contradicts your opinion, which, btw, is exactly what your eyetest is. Everyone here has an opinion. That you state your opinions without doing the research to back it up does not make you intelligent or knowledgable. What it does mean is your opinions aren't open to scrutiny, hence why you want to discuss your eyes, even though, you estimating how frequently things happen on the basketball floor over a small sample size despite biologically being unable to capture more than 5 things at once(yes, that's biology), because if you cite your eyetest and refuse to prevent stats you escape the scrutiny people who provide a basis for their opinions receive. You say "stats can be found to prove whatever point you want to make," yet you failed to find them. I'd expect that to make you more humble but it's magically done the opposite:

. But if you watch the actual game - try it, its fun! -

You've magically concluded you have better intuitive knowledge of the game than someone whose done research. That's pretty incredible. Given what you proceeded to say, it's clearly delusion:

So if you compare this effort to that of Giannis or for example Kawhi, its nowhere near MVP worthy.

Did you really just put Giannis, one of the best on-ball AND off-ball perimiter defenders in the game and one of the leagues best rim protectors in the same breath as kawhi, a bad off-ball defender, who provides less rim protection than 17th year lebron and only has high value on the ball(which covers a small fraction of a defender's defensive possesions)? Do you think it's a conspiracy that the raptors d margially improved without kawhi in the playoffs despite fantastic "when kawhi was the primary defender" stats?

Your eyetest is evidently useless and it's no wonder you rant about watching the game the second someone whose informed provides you information. Lebron has made the lakers defense better whenever he's on the court. Kawhi has failed to replicate that when he's not playing role player minuites.

Remember, everyone has an eyetest(opinion) here. The only difference is some are knowledgeable to back it up. Clearly, you are not.

Its mildly amusing how you nitpick on my post claiming it being "delusional" when all you provide are ad hominem attacks. So if i put in the work to assemble a "best of brons defense" in any game you pick of this season, you would probably still go to some stats over the obvious. Or to comparisions to other players stats. When it is visible in clear daylight that he is not playing defense, and he even admitted it himself, and theres plenty of videos and other evidence for those with limited understanding of the game outside highlight dunks. I'll just assume you are one of those particular Bron "fans" who will just do whatever it takes to justify his issues. Its clear that he is a generational player, no doubt. But the attitude some guys here have like his is Jesus or something and theres nothing wrong in his game or persona gets ridiculous sometimes.

[Joey Wheeler]

Evaluating a player's impact on team defense should be the foundation of this discussion. Otherwise anyone could say anything and chalk it up to the "eye test".

The truth is, AD would have been stunted by the Raps last year just like every other big man they faced. It had nothing to do with Giannis being exposed, which is such a lazy narrative.

Based on? We've seen AD in the playoffs and he's been dominant. 2 of his 3 series were against the dynasty Warriors, an elite playoff defense with Draymond Green as his direct matchup. That dominance was also achieved with a far inferior supporting cast and spacing than what Giannis had.

It is very lazy to assume AD would have struggled vs the Raptors like Giannis and Embiid did when AD's playoff history suggests he can't really be stunted by elite defense + his offensive skillset is more varied and he's better playing off the ball than those two. Giannis struggling offensively isn't a "lazy narrative", it's based on fact, I mean I doubt even his most ardent fans will claim he had a good offensive series; AD being hypothetically stunted otoh is fabrication not grounded on any real precedent in his career considering how most of his short playoff history consists of dropping an efficient 30ppg against an elite defense anchored by a DPOY at his position.

Regarding defense, I agree, all those I'm complimenting AD on obviously help at the team level, him protecting the rim, blocking shots, guarding smaller players on the perimeter, etc... make his team defense better. Yes, I'm confident any team's defense will improve substantially if they introduce AD into the mix. Can I quantify this improvement? Well, of course not, nobody can and it'll be different depending on the particular situation anyway.

Vuc, Embiid and Giannis were all stunted by the Raps defense which was designed to stop opposing bigs. Given how those guys compare to AD offensively, we should expect a similar decline in this hypothetical (against what was truly an all-time elite defense). There's a reason the Bucks outscored the Raps with Giannis on the floor, and the Sixers outscored the Raps with Embiid on the floor. Their gravity opened up the floor for every other player.

Draymond isn't some great man defender against scoring bigs; he's an all time great help defender. It's totally different from rotations of Gasol/Ibaka/Siakam/Kawhi.

You refer to AD's playoff success but he won a single playoff series in his career and more often than not wound up in the lottery.

No, we should not expect it. Extending your logic, we should expect every big man in history to struggle just because those guys struggled. That's a very disingenious way to wave off Giannis/Embiid's shortcomings. I'm not going to assume AD would struggle when everything in his playoff history suggests he thrives vs great defenses and his offensive skillset is very different from Giannis's and Embiid's anyway.

I don't define playoff success as team winning or losing when I'm comparing players, the focus is on their individual performances. For instance, AD's first ever playoff series he got swept against the eventual champion GSW, but he averaed 32/11/2, 1 steal, 3 blocks, 61% TS, elite defense. He was a monster and it was better than any series Giannis has ever played even if he got swept. Team results are dependent on more than one player, even if the Bucks had won against the Raptors, which they could have, it'd not change what that series revealed about Giannis.

[Joey Wheeler]

It's pretty debatable if ad is even better than giannis defensively. AD's a better rim protector, but Giannis is still oen of the best rim protectors AND one of the league's best perimeter defender. Overall isn't a real discussion

AD being better defensively isn't debatable at all. He's the better rim protector and shot blocker

Shot blocking is covered by rim protection.

, he's the better perimeter defender, he can sometimes guard both guys on the pick and roll at the same time. Giannis has zero argument on defense.

Absolutely ridiculous assertion. Giannis had the biggest effect of the effiency of the players he guarded. He covers ground much quicker, contests far more shots, and can guard more positions. Giannis is indisputably the better perimiter defender. If rim protection wasn't more important than perimiter d, ad would have no case. As it is tho, Giannis has been more impactful defensively by the most predictive metrics this and last season and is still one of the league's best rim protectors. AD's case is a pretty weak one.

On offense it's more of a debate, Giannis is better at running an offense,

Yes.

but AD's more versatile scoring and overall skillset, namely his leagues better off ball game, make him a better fit in most offenses while Giannis pretty much has to run the entire offense to be maximized and he has never shown the ability to lead an elite playoff offense.

Giannis is the more effecient scorer and scores at higher volume. If defenses could get away with sagging off Giannis, your shooting point might be slightly more compelling,but given that both the celtics and the -10 raptors D got eviscerated when they gave Giannis space to drive/shoot, it really isn't. As it is, Giannis has been shooting as well as AD since last year's asb after he changed his shooting.

Did I say every stat rivaled Jordan/Lebron or that he was as good as them? Some do however. For instance, the top 2 per game scorers in NBA playoff history are Michael Jordan, followed by Anthony Davis. 5th highest PER in NBA playoff history; his true shooting % is top 15 (higher than Jordan/Lebron). Over his short playoff career, he's averaging 31/13/2, with 2 steals and 3 blocks, on 59% TS; in this case the short sample size actually works against him since the bulk of his games played were against the dynasty Warriors, who are also an elite playoff defense. We never saw anything close to this in Giannis's also short playoff career, in fact we saw some serious struggles on the offensive end.

Giannis's playoff numbers are better than AD's but go off.

Giannis wasn't "exposed" by defenses that sagged off, he destroyed those. He was exposed as a playmaker, which may be relevant if AD could run an offense.

And as a scorer, his playoff scoring leaves a lot to be desired and is clearly inferior to AD's.

18-19 Giannis managed comparable effiency on higher usage against better playoff defenses. Clearly inferioir,is a laughable claim. Giannis is probably better, and given it's the only thing davis has an argument on, that's pretty sad.

in the only series where he faced an opponent somewhat comparable to the dynasty Warriors (against whom most of AD's playoff body of work has occured) he averaged 23 on 52% TS; it's hard to imagine AD ever having such a poor scoring series given the robustness of his scoring skillset.

The raptors were a VASTLY better defense than anyone AD's played. I also have to think you don't understand what happened in the playoffs if you're still rambling about AD's shooting. The raptors tried to sag off Giannis like the celtics did in the first two games. As a result, they ,a -10 defense, got destroyed, even though the bucks were shooting significantly worse from threes and open looks. The raptors stopped sagging off in game 3 and decided to leave the paint to blitz him with three to four people. As AD is even worse as a playmaker, isn't nearly as good at maneuvering around defenders and doesn't have nearly the amount of gravity Giannis does, I think we can safely say AD would have done worse with no one to run the offense for him.

Being exposed as a playmaker is a big deal because Giannis has to be the primary playmaker in his team's offense due to his lack of off ball game, while AD doesn't.

Ad doesn't have an off-ball game, sorry. Giannis's screens are more valuable than ad's below average shooting,which by the way, Giannis has replicated for almost a year now.

As for Giannis's playoff numbers being better than AD, I don't know why you keep inventing stuff that is so obviously false, it's not the first or second time you do that when debating with me. Why? You could just say the sample size is too small or whatever.

You not knowing the numbers doesn't make you right. Giannis's 18/19 playoffs were better than any of AD's in pipm, backpicks bpm, and luck adjusted rapm. In case you're wondering, all those stats do a vastly better job predicting winning and induvidual impact then ws/48 or per. Though if you insist onusing those, you should know Giannis's per, bpm, and ws/48 throughout the first two rounds were higher than any of AD's playoff runs.

But I guess AD's better cause he couldn't get past the second round. Maybe if he could lead a +8 srs team, he wouldn't have had to keep getting swept aside by the warriors.[/quote]

Players are shooting horrible %s vs AD this year from every area of the court. The comments on their perimeter defense honestly sound like you're creating an alternate reality, AD can guard the likes of Curry or Harden without it being a mismatch, he can actually lock down on the perimeter. He's an elite defender 1-5. Giannis can also guard every position, but not with the same effectiveness.

Giannis is a more efficient scorer on a higher volume? What? This isn't even true in the RS unless this season and last are the only ones we're taking into account, let alone in the playoffs where AD averages 31 on 59% TS and Giannis 23 on 56%, 26 on 57% last season.

Claiming AD has no off ball game is just beyond ludicrous and honestly makes me wonder how much basketball you watch and if you're not simply basing your analysis off the stat sheet and assorted videos. Also off ball game is more than shooting and screens: AD is a lethal rim runner and lob threat and offensive rebounder. He can get his 30 points while not having any offense run through him. Giannis otoh basically has to be his team's de facto point guard due to his lack of off ball threat.

[Joey Wheeler]

It's very telling that in this discussion no one has really given a real argument for Giannis being better than AD unless we're counting variations of "Lol at AD being better" as argument, seems like we're just supposed to assume he is.

Oh well, as always the playoffs reveal everything and we'll know the answer to this and who's right come May and June assuming both are healthy. I feel very confident in my assessment of AD being a tier above at both ends though, he's just a more complete player with a more resilient skillset.

i mena, it's pretty straightforward. Giannis is on pace to get his second MVP while AD has yet to sniff even one. Giannis is an infinitely better playmaker, just as good of a scorer, better 3 level defender, better transition player, the more durable player by a mile, and is coming off a season in which he led his team to 67 wins and the ECF while Davis could barely even get his team to .500 while he was on the floor.

like, it's not even a discussion at this point. anyone that takes Davis over Giannis just doesn't know basketball...point blank.

Giannis winning MVP only means his team had a better record, he certainly wasn't winning them when the Bucks were struggling to make the playoffs. It says nothing about how they compare individually..

Better playmaker and more durable are true, the rest not really. Giannis being a better 3-level defender is bordering on absurd imo, AD is better protecting the paint/blocking shots, locking down guys on the perimeter, guarding the pick and roll, I see no advantage for Giannis at all.

Just as good a scorer is true in the RS maybe, definitely not in the playoffs and the numbers bear that pretty clearly. Even aside from them, AD is just a more versatile scorer while Giannis is only really elite scoring in the paint, struggles from every other area of the floor and can be a liability from the free throw line. Also, not that it matters but the Bucks won 60 games last season, not 67.

[Joey Wheeler]

For the record, I don't dislike Giannis and hope he can match people's expectations of him. But he better show a lot more these coming playoffs given all the hype he's getting here with people saying he's better than AD and Lebron, a repeat of what happened last season will make the position that he's league-best level completely untenable.

[limbo]

My mind can't justify giving the award to LeBron because of AD, and giving AD the award because of LeBron. They are like the best two-man wrecking crew in the league. Even better than what LeBron and Wade were, not offensively, but AD's defensive impact makes up for that. I realize that might be a bit too short-sighted, since the rest of the supporting cast matters A LOT, but it's not like the Lakers have a bum squad outside of them either. McGee/Howard are one of the best C tandems in the league. Danny Green is solid.

I know i said it will be hard to beat Giannis, and i still stand by that, but i'm starting to think i'm undervaluing his supporting cast a bit. It's actually filled with veterans that understand the game on an elite level and fit very well. I mean, the fact that Giannis can afford to play 19 minutes and the Bucks still win in a 39-point blow out should say something.

I know it was against the Bobcats, but can any of you guys see Harden or Towns sitting most of the game and his team is blowing out the other team, the bench players are like +15 in +/-

[Packbuckman]

It's very telling that in this discussion no one has really given a real argument for Giannis being better than AD unless we're counting variations of "Lol at AD being better" as argument, seems like we're just supposed to assume he is.

Oh well, as always the playoffs reveal everything and we'll know the answer to this and who's right come May and June assuming both are healthy. I feel very confident in my assessment of AD being a tier above at both ends though, he's just a more complete player with a more resilient skillset.

i mena, it's pretty straightforward. Giannis is on pace to get his second MVP while AD has yet to sniff even one. Giannis is an infinitely better playmaker, just as good of a scorer, better 3 level defender, better transition player, the more durable player by a mile, and is coming off a season in which he led his team to 67 wins and the ECF while Davis could barely even get his team to .500 while he was on the floor.

like, it's not even a discussion at this point. anyone that takes Davis over Giannis just doesn't know basketball...point blank.

Giannis winning MVP only means his team had a better record, he certainly wasn't winning them when the Bucks were struggling to make the playoffs. It says nothing about how they compare individually..

Better playmaker and more durable are true, the rest not really. Giannis being a better 3-level defender is bordering on absurd imo, AD is better protecting the paint/blocking shots, locking down guys on the perimeter, guarding the pick and roll, I see no advantage for Giannis at all.

Just as good a scorer is true in the RS maybe, definitely not in the playoffs and the numbers bear that pretty clearly. Even aside from them, AD is just a more versatile scorer while Giannis is only really elite scoring in the paint, struggles from every other area of the floor and can be a liability from the free throw line. Also, not that it matters but the Bucks won 60 games last season, not 67.

AD use to be better than Giannis because he was a more finished coming out of school and into the NBA. Giannis was a raw skinny 18 year old kid his improvement has been amazing a few years ago everyone would be taking AD but not anymore and that just shows Giannis work ethic and willing to get better and watch out nba he’s just getting started really.
Giannis
LeBron
Luka
Harden

[Infinite Llamas]

I honestly think Gianni's has waaaaaay more help than Lebron. Davis is a superior player than anyone else on the Bucks but the Bucks depth blows away the Lakers by a mile. In the playoffs, that second star is more valuable but in the RS, depth will prevail. People saying Gianni's is playing with a weaker cast cause he doesn't have an AD isn't paying attention. Bud's system has been one of the best RS formulas for years now.

[Triples333]

I honestly think Gianni's has waaaaaay more help than Lebron. Davis is a superior player than anyone else on the Bucks but the Bucks depth blows away the Lakers by a mile. In the playoffs, that second star is more valuable but in the RS, depth will prevail. People saying Gianni's is playing with a weaker cast cause he doesn't have an AD isn't paying attention. Bud's system has been one of the best RS formulas for years now.

The Bucks are a decent tram without Giannis, but nothing to write home about. They would struggle to make the playoffs even in the East, and clearly go nowhere if they did. He catapults them to arguably the best team in the NBA.

With AD/LeBron you're correct that the team sucks outside of those two, but the fact of the matter is that LeBron does not have a great case as even being the better player.

AD leads the team in points/rebounds/blocks/steals and is their defensive anchor (the 2nd best D in the league and primary reason for their success). He also leads Bron in PER and WS/48. When all those things are the case, the other teammate is not the league MVP.

[Joey Wheeler]

My mind can't justify giving the award to LeBron because of AD, and giving AD the award because of LeBron. They are like the best two-man wrecking crew in the league. Even better than what LeBron and Wade were, not offensively, but AD's defensive impact makes up for that. I realize that might be a bit too short-sighted, since the rest of the supporting cast matters A LOT, but it's not like the Lakers have a bum squad outside of them either. McGee/Howard are one of the best C tandems in the league. Danny Green is solid.

I know i said it will be hard to beat Giannis, and i still stand by that, but i'm starting to think i'm undervaluing his supporting cast a bit. It's actually filled with veterans that understand the game on an elite level and fit very well. I mean, the fact that Giannis can afford to play 19 minutes and the Bucks still win in a 39-point blow out should say something.

I know it was against the Bobcats, but can any of you guys see Harden or Towns sitting most of the game and his team is blowing out the other team, the bench players are like +15 in +/-

I can definitely agree with this, especially since it's not clear at all who the better player of the two is right now. That said, if those two are fit in the playoffs the Lakers will easily win the title so I doubt they care much about MVP.

As for the Bucks cast around Giannis, it's not great on its own, but it's great around a ball dominant offensive quarterback like Giannis. Don't think you can do a much better job building around Giannis than the Bucks have. On its own it'd be a bad roster since it really lacks playmaking on offense, but around Giannis that's redundant given how much he dominantes the ball, he needs guys who can space the floor for him and play defense. The Bucks can basically play Giannis + 4 shooters lineups that can be strong defensively for 48 minutes, which is the optimal way to maximize him.

[limbo]

As for the Bucks cast around Giannis, it's not great on its own, but it's great around a ball dominant offensive quarterback like Giannis. Don't think you can do a much better job building around Giannis than the Bucks have. On its own it'd be a bad roster since it really lacks playmaking on offense, but around Giannis that's redundant given how much he dominantes the ball, he needs guys who can space the floor for him and play defense. The Bucks can basically play Giannis + 4 shooters lineups that can be strong defensively for 48 minutes, which is the optimal way to maximize him.

If this were true we would be observing more frequent collapses by the Bucks when Giannis sits down, but from what i've seen, that really hasn't been the case. It's still relatively early, but looking back at +/- data will gives us a better ballpark answer on this.

I'm also not buying this 'playmaking' deficit you touched on. Bledsoe is at least as good of a playmaker as Giannis is, and George Hill has been a capable point guard for many teams during his career. For example, Bucks have better playmakers than Lakers. And it rhymes as well.

[Joey Wheeler]

As for the Bucks cast around Giannis, it's not great on its own, but it's great around a ball dominant offensive quarterback like Giannis. Don't think you can do a much better job building around Giannis than the Bucks have. On its own it'd be a bad roster since it really lacks playmaking on offense, but around Giannis that's redundant given how much he dominantes the ball, he needs guys who can space the floor for him and play defense. The Bucks can basically play Giannis + 4 shooters lineups that can be strong defensively for 48 minutes, which is the optimal way to maximize him.

If this were true we would be observing more frequent collapses by the Bucks when Giannis sits down, but from what i've seen, that really hasn't been the case. It's still relatively early, but looking back at +/- data will gives us a better ballpark answer on this.

I'm also not buying this 'playmaking' deficit you touched on. Bledsoe is at least as good of a playmaker as Giannis is, and George Hill has been a capable point guard for many teams during his career. For example, Bucks have better playmakers than Lakers. And it rhymes as well.

Their system is simple enough that it can stay afloat with a lesser version of Giannis running it for the minutes he's out. Even Giannis isn't tasked with any complex playmaking, he mostly just has to make simple reads and passes after the defense collapses on his drives.

That said, if the Bucks had to play without Giannis for an extended period, as opposed to 10 minutes each match, I'm not sure they could win enough to even make the playoffs. Their roster is filled with players who struggle to create for themselves and for others. They'd not be awful, but they'd not be good either imo. As for Bledsoe being as good a playmaker as Giannis, have to disagree, Giannis's scoring threat and the gravity he has just open so much more up for the entire team.

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

Another funny stat.

Harden is currently averaging 39 ppg on 64 TS%.

Giannis per 36 is 34.4 points at 61% compared to harden per 36 of 38 points. Difference is essentially Giannis figuring out how to make free throws at the same clip he did the rest of his career.

[Texas Chuck]

1. Giannis
2. Harden
3. Luka

feels wrong to leave Lebron off considering his play and the Lakers' record, but AD is going to siphon off some of the votes. I expect Lebron to force himself more into the discussion by the end of the year as AD will likely miss enough games to send all the Lakers votes to Lebron.