Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread IV (Must read Post 1)

[ken6199]

In short, China is on the down slope. The entire Europe is at the peak. US is still on the up slope.

If we isolate - we will be slowly peaking. If we don't, only God knows.

Where did you get the idea that all of Europe is at the peak? We don't even know if Italy has peaked.

I'm not even sure if Italy has managed to flatten the curve much yet. The trajectory of their death rate is very scary.

The Italy numbers are widely available on various tracking sites. Their number of new cases and new deaths has been largely consistent over the past few days. Their new cases had a decent drop yesterday (5986 -> 5560). Italy is in its peak, whether it's the beginning of the peak or the finishing end of the peak we don't know. Today is 3/22, 10 days after their initial lockdown.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
Compared to China, it's peak starts on Feb 12 and ends on Feb 22. Wuhan lockdown happened on Jan 22, so that's also a 10 day since the lockdown leading up to their peak. These two countries follow the same pattern.

Now how much you trust the data from either of the countries is a separate topic.

[rapstarter]

This is the kind of chart you should be looking at. It helps if you had actuarial exposure. The reason I use mortality rate often is that other variables can be less reliable. Dead is dead.

This chart shows neither the infection "rate" or the mortality "rate". It's looking at the growth rate of the number of (infected) cases.

However, I do agree that something like this chart that shows the number of deaths is probably the best visual representation of the situation. Any "rate" outside SK, China and Germany will have a denominator problem, and death is probably the most reliable numerator we can have.

[LKN]

In short, China is on the down slope. The entire Europe is at the peak. US is still on the up slope.

If we isolate - we will be slowly peaking. If we don't, only God knows.

Where did you get the idea that all of Europe is at the peak? We don't even know if Italy has peaked.

I'm not even sure if Italy has managed to flatten the curve much yet. The trajectory of their death rate is very scary.

The Italy numbers are widely available on various tracking sites. Their number of new cases and new deaths has been largely consistent over the past few days. Their new cases had a decent drop yesterday (5986 -> 5560). Italy is in its peak, whether it's the beginning of the peak or the finishing end of the peak we don't know. Today is 3/22, 10 days after their initial lockdown.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
Compared to China, it's peak starts on Feb 12 and ends on Feb 22. Wuhan lockdown happened on Jan 22, so that's also a 10 day since the lockdown leading up to their peak. These two countries follow the same pattern.

Now how much you trust the data from either of the countries is a separate topic.

Fair enough - I was more taking issue with the statement about Europe anyways.

And actually - it's more that I'm skeptical of some of the data as you touch on in your last sentence. (Not that I think Italy is trying to hide anything.... they are doing the best they can).

Let's all hope that they are on the downswing and don't have anymore new waves.

[mcmurphy]

Read on Twitter

Heheh, the first one is the governor of Campania region (Naples), who's pretty know in Italy for his "colorful" language and behavior.

The other ones are mayors of southern italian towns and cities.
Honestly, we are having some problems to maintain a serious lockdown here in the north, I can only imagine how hard is that in the south, considering the average "anarchy" of many southern italians, especially in Naples where you still have a lot of people in the streets and markets.

This is a mayor of a small Sicilian town (5k inhabitants)... 6 days ago has become the symbol of all good Italians in this quarantine...
you can find a english subtitle version here (https://www.youtube.com/timedtext_editor?action_mde_edit_form=1&v=KLV6EDQQY04&lang=en&bl=vmp&ui=hd&ref=player&tab=captions&o=U&ar=1584910057091)

Watch on YouTube

[NoDopeOnSundays]

Every time this idiot does a conference the futures market just tanks, his conferences are literally short signals now.

[basketballRob]

Every time this idiot does a conference the futures market just tanks, his conferences are literally short signals now.

After this whole thing is over the response and other things will be thoroughly investigated. Like the 911 commission. Hopefully we keep politics out of this thread so we can come here to get and share information.

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[ItsDanger]

Every time this idiot does a conference the futures market just tanks, his conferences are literally short signals now.

More likely due to Congress not passing stimulus bill yet. I think they're voting in 30 minutes.

[OkcSinceSGA]

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12711?fbclid=IwAR13dLP-B4mOYlfWlwkl9Ciys5jaHmUeenjgQjjkbp0cwPVWuSOBrHYk9SA

More evidence that China was messing with these kind of strands in lab settings. I still firmly believe this was lab made, or at least altered.

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[rapstarter]

I thought Trump couldn't be more low energy, but he looks flat out dead today. Never been a fan of him, but this is worrisome. Hopefully it's just fatigue and not a sign of defeat.

[OkcSinceSGA]

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[Tomjas]

Pence continues to praise Trump

The 15 day thing is just bs

Trump’s now blaming Obama again ffs

[Bandit King]

Still waiting for my 1200 dollar check!

[LKN]

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Scary - I've read quite a few stories on that.

[Clippers2020]

I thought Trump couldn't be more low energy, but he looks flat out dead today. Never been a fan of him, but this is worrisome. Hopefully it's just fatigue and not a sign of defeat.

Today is the fastest I've ever heard Trump speak.
He looks more energetic now than any other day of the virus briefings.
But if you're referring to his body language when others are speaking, he always looks flat in that situation, even during his inauguration 2017 he looked bored when others were speaking.

[LKN]

LOL

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?s=20

[basketballRob]

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Scary - I've read quite a few stories on that.

Pneumonia is the final stage

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[ItsDanger]

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12711?fbclid=IwAR13dLP-B4mOYlfWlwkl9Ciys5jaHmUeenjgQjjkbp0cwPVWuSOBrHYk9SA

More evidence that China was messing with these kind of strands in lab settings. I still firmly believe this was lab made, or at least altered.

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anyone who claims it was natural is a liar. We really don't know for sure either way. Natural mutation is possible but unlikely. The preponderance of evidence would suggest it was bio-engineered perhaps for research purposes. However, if the rumor is true that it contains HIV or herpes elements than it is 99% man made.

I'd almost prefer man made because if it was natural, this may likely happen again in 10 years.

[rapstarter]

I thought Trump couldn't be more low energy, but he looks flat out dead today. Never been a fan of him, but this is worrisome. Hopefully it's just fatigue and not a sign of defeat.

Today is the fastest I've ever heard Trump speak.
He looks more energetic now than any other day of the virus briefings.
But if you're referring to his body language when others are speaking, he always looks flat in that situation, even during his inauguration 2017 he looked bored when others were speaking.

It looks like the Q&A session woke him up. His opening speech was somber.

[Fairview4Life]

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12711?fbclid=IwAR13dLP-B4mOYlfWlwkl9Ciys5jaHmUeenjgQjjkbp0cwPVWuSOBrHYk9SA

More evidence that China was messing with these kind of strands in lab settings. I still firmly believe this was lab made, or at least altered.

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You realize that a whole lot of labs around the world were “messing” with different respiratory viruses right? These Chinese researchers, like the CDC and other national labs, study these viruses all the time to try and find ways of combatting them. Covid 19 was not engineered in a lab. The genome has been sequenced and studied. There is 0 reason to believe this was man made when nature is way better at evolving viruses in the first place.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175442.htm

[Pharmcat]

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Scary - I've read quite a few stories on that.

Pneumonia is the final stage

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Yes this is what people have told me: it starts out as a flu like , then you feel better, and then it comes back as something miserable in your chest