The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III

[bebopdeluxe]

Simmons looked like he was unanimous lock back in mid December.

Simmons should still be a unanimous lock now. The only reason he isn't is because people are excited to have another top quality rookie to talk about and probably a certain overvaluation of points on their own combined with a few other reasons.

Mitchell is very good. I'm not sure how good, but he sure looks like a future allstar to me with the potential to be somewhere between Klay Thompson and Dwyane Wade. Despite that it still really shouldn't be a debate. Simmons is just simply better. The only thing Mitchell does better is score. He's a brilliant scorer who happens to do a lot of other things pretty damn well, too, but it's kind of like comparing, say, Kyrie Irving to Chris Paul. Both are absolutely fantastic players, but the only thing Irving does better is score, and Paul is a pretty good scorer himself. Everything else is Chris Paul to varying degrees. Not a knock on Irving or Mitchell, just a reality. To be honest, just ignoring being a rookie, Simmons' season is simply more amazing than he's getting credit for right now.

If the vote was held today, I’m confident Simmons would not win unanimously. Regardless of the reasons why.

You are probably right. And while someone is free to take up Mitchell's candidacy, I do think that the injury year/Process hater factor will definitely be there for some voters.

[Grimmetal]

How about the 'clutch' argument? Mitchell beats Simmons by a wide margin. Let's define 'clutch' simply as the 4th quarter. It's broad enough to include most aspects of the end of the game.

There are only 10 players in the NBA that have scored 300 total points or more in 4th quarters this year. 300 total points scored is a pretty good baseline, IMO. If your'e scoring that many points, there's something 'clutch' about the player and they're pouring it in when the game is typically in the balance. Of those 10 players, DM is 4th in total pts, 3rd in FG%, and first in +/-. Out of the heaviest of 4th quarter hitters... DM is the heaviest.

The 10 players in this group? By total points scored in the 4th: Lou Williams, LeBron, Jimmy Butler, Donovan Mitchell, Russell Westbrook, Kemba, McCollum, Kyrie, Giannis, and Boogie Cousins.

So, remember, out of those players Donovan is 4th in total points scored in the 4th quarter, 3rd in FG%, and leads all of those guys in +/- with +88. The next guy? Lou Williams at +54.

So, where is Ben Simmons?
Widening the search to players who have scored at least 231 points in 4th quarters... Simmons is 34th in points scored in the 4th with 232. His FG% is higher at 55%, but he also doesn't take low percentage shots. His +/- in the 4th? -49. Which is second to last.

For arguments sake.. Tatum has a +144 in the 4th quarter.

[downtownpie]

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[deflated]

Mitchell is also a very good defender who regularly guards the opponents top perimeter player. Both of their teams are top 5 in the league. Simmons doesn’t gain many points here IMO.

Mitchell has Simmons beat in offensive efficiency, so I’m not sure what the point was in talking about the FG% gap. Simmons does not shoot better when we look at the proper numbers.

Overall, I think it’s fairly close and I like them bo5 quite a bit.

What do you base the assertion that "Simmons doesn't gain many points" relative to Mitchell based on defense? Huh?

Advanced stats say that it is a BLOWOUT in favor of Simmons.

DBPM:

Simmons: 3.4
Mitchell: - 0.6 (worse than all but like three of his teammates)

When you have a worse DPBM than Joe Johnson, you are in NO position to tout your defensive bonifides....right?

The problem I see is that you’re picking one advanced stat, the one that is often skewed by the players you’re asked to guard on the other team. It’s the same reason the like of Klay Thompson and Avery Bradley don’t grade out well in DPBM and Andre Drummond and Kyle Anderson are the top 2 in the league right now. It’s an imperfect stat.

Can you point to any advanced stat that tries to measure defence where Simmons isn't grading out significantly better than Mitchell? DWS, DRtg, DRPM all show Simmons as an excellent defender. It's not one isolated metric; they all say Simmons is unusually good for a rookie and rates better than Mitchell. If you don't trust advanced def stats and want to stick to the basics - steals, blocks, rebounds, deflections, loose balls - the story is the same.

I wonder if we're having trouble evaluating Simmons because he's such an unusual player. He's got the best DWS per game of any rookie since 2000; only Tatum is close, playing for a team with many more wins. Leads all players in touches in his first year. Craziest rookie season I ever expect to see.

[deflated]

How about the 'clutch' argument? Mitchell beats Simmons by a wide margin. Let's define 'clutch' simply as the 4th quarter. It's broad enough to include most aspects of the end of the game.

There are only 10 players in the NBA that have scored 300 total points or more in 4th quarters this year. 300 total points scored is a pretty good baseline, IMO. If your'e scoring that many points, there's something 'clutch' about the player and they're pouring it in when the game is typically in the balance. Of those 10 players, DM is 4th in total pts, 3rd in FG%, and first in +/-. Out of the heaviest of 4th quarter hitters... DM is the heaviest.

The 10 players in this group? By total points scored in the 4th: Lou Williams, LeBron, Jimmy Butler, Donovan Mitchell, Russell Westbrook, Kemba, McCollum, Kyrie, Giannis, and Boogie Cousins.

So, remember, out of those players Donovan is 4th in total points scored in the 4th quarter, 3rd in FG%, and leads all of those guys in +/- with +88. The next guy? Lou Williams at +54.

So, where is Ben Simmons?
Widening the search to players who have scored at least 231 points in 4th quarters... Simmons is 34th in points scored in the 4th with 232. His FG% is higher at 55%, but he also doesn't take low percentage shots. His +/- in the 4th? -49. Which is second to last.

For arguments sake.. Tatum has a +144 in the 4th quarter.

You may want to look at the 'Clutch' stats on nba.com. Filter by rookies; look at net Rtg. In the last 5 minutes of close games its Simmons at the top of the list.

[commentatorer]

So, where is Ben Simmons?
Widening the search to players who have scored at least 231 points in 4th quarters... Simmons is 34th in points scored in the 4th with 232. His FG% is higher at 55%, but he also doesn't take low percentage shots. His +/- in the 4th? -49. Which is second to last.

For arguments sake.. Tatum has a +144 in the 4th quarter.

I wonder who we should blame most for Philly's horrible 4th quarters....Simmons or Embiid?
Simmons shoots even better in 4th quarters than he does overall.
Embiid is the go-to-guy more than Simmons, so that's who is more responsible for that -49.
Or maybe its the fault of the 3-point-shooters.

[bebopdeluxe]

How about the 'clutch' argument? Mitchell beats Simmons by a wide margin. Let's define 'clutch' simply as the 4th quarter. It's broad enough to include most aspects of the end of the game.

There are only 10 players in the NBA that have scored 300 total points or more in 4th quarters this year. 300 total points scored is a pretty good baseline, IMO. If your'e scoring that many points, there's something 'clutch' about the player and they're pouring it in when the game is typically in the balance. Of those 10 players, DM is 4th in total pts, 3rd in FG%, and first in +/-. Out of the heaviest of 4th quarter hitters... DM is the heaviest.

The 10 players in this group? By total points scored in the 4th: Lou Williams, LeBron, Jimmy Butler, Donovan Mitchell, Russell Westbrook, Kemba, McCollum, Kyrie, Giannis, and Boogie Cousins.

So, remember, out of those players Donovan is 4th in total points scored in the 4th quarter, 3rd in FG%, and leads all of those guys in +/- with +88. The next guy? Lou Williams at +54.

So, where is Ben Simmons?
Widening the search to players who have scored at least 231 points in 4th quarters... Simmons is 34th in points scored in the 4th with 232. His FG% is higher at 55%, but he also doesn't take low percentage shots. His +/- in the 4th? -49. Which is second to last.

For arguments sake.. Tatum has a +144 in the 4th quarter.

You may want to look at the 'Clutch' stats on nba.com. Filter by rookies; look at net Rtg. In the last 5 minutes of close games its Simmons at the top of the list.

DAMN. Those pesky FACTS again.

You know, this would be a lot easier for the Mitchell fans if we could get rid of all of these silly, irrelevant advanced facts and statistics and base the ROY simply on “who gets BUCKETS yo” or some other ish like that.

(and - again - I think Mitchell is GREAT)

[Catchall]

Here's Mitchell making a number of incredible plays again...

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[Catchall]

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When it's said and done, Jackson may still be the best rookie in this class. His talent level is way up there.

[Goudelock]

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This is a cool stat and I'm not trying to denigrate Simmons, but....

Magic Johnson averaged 21.6 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 8.6 apg, 3.4 spg, and 0.7 bpg in his second season. so that 0.2 blocks is what sets him apart from Magic. That stat is really cherry-picked.

[KingFox]

People keep talking about how dangerous Simmons would be with a jumper but to me the far more easily acquired thing that'll make him a serious weapon is learning how to draw fouls. He can create separation from just about anyone but now he's still often either avoiding contact or else only looking to pass once he gets into the paint (if he doens't have a clear lane all the way to the cup). It should be a pretty easy adjustment and I'd expect it to be the next step he takes towards becoming an all-NBA level guy.

Well this is a good point but getting to the line half the battle. He eventually needs to develop some sort of shot and be more than decent at the the line

I’m sure he has the work ethic to do so

[CoreyGallagher]

Magic Johnson averaged 21.6 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 8.6 apg, 3.4 spg, and 0.7 bpg in his second season. so that 0.2 blocks is what sets him apart from Magic. That stat is really cherry-picked.

Not a fan of these either, but don’t think it’s meant to be cherrypicked, his stat line is simply the qualifier. I think it’s supposed to demonstrate his full versatility, not imply it’s the best season or whatever ever.

Magic’s is obviously better, just blocked less. Lol.

[TFK]

How about the 'clutch' argument? Mitchell beats Simmons by a wide margin. Let's define 'clutch' simply as the 4th quarter. It's broad enough to include most aspects of the end of the game.

There are only 10 players in the NBA that have scored 300 total points or more in 4th quarters this year. 300 total points scored is a pretty good baseline, IMO. If your'e scoring that many points, there's something 'clutch' about the player and they're pouring it in when the game is typically in the balance. Of those 10 players, DM is 4th in total pts, 3rd in FG%, and first in +/-. Out of the heaviest of 4th quarter hitters... DM is the heaviest.

The 10 players in this group? By total points scored in the 4th: Lou Williams, LeBron, Jimmy Butler, Donovan Mitchell, Russell Westbrook, Kemba, McCollum, Kyrie, Giannis, and Boogie Cousins.

So, remember, out of those players Donovan is 4th in total points scored in the 4th quarter, 3rd in FG%, and leads all of those guys in +/- with +88. The next guy? Lou Williams at +54.

So, where is Ben Simmons?
Widening the search to players who have scored at least 231 points in 4th quarters... Simmons is 34th in points scored in the 4th with 232. His FG% is higher at 55%, but he also doesn't take low percentage shots. His +/- in the 4th? -49. Which is second to last.

For arguments sake.. Tatum has a +144 in the 4th quarter.

So “clutch” has been reduced to scoring points? Not taking into account all other facets of the game? Much like the rest of the game, I don’t think anybody could argue that Mitchell isn’t a better pure scorer than Simmons. But if Simmons grabs a rebound or makes a steal with 30 seconds left, leads the break, and assists the game winning bucket, is he not “clutch”?

Scoring: Mitchell > Simmons
Everything else: Simmons > Mitchell

So, what do the voters value more?

[RoyalNBA]

Simmons. Lauri. Tatum. Those are the three for ROY. I hope we see long careers for all three.

[leaguegod692]

clutch cannot simply be definded but a players scoring at that time, especially when everybody already agrees that scoring wise mitchell > simmons.

good chance that Simmons has created better opportunities for his team mates during those moments and 100% certain he has made more key defensive plays down the stretch (i know DM had a key steal the other night but simmons comes up big defensively fairly often and had multiple big plays defensively last night). Simmons rtg shows this.

none of this is meant to lower how nice it is that mitchell is becoming a high level closer as a rookie, more just pointing out that it doesn't change the argument of how we value them, mitchell is a better scorer start to finish then simmons, simmons is better at everything else start to finish

[michaelm]

Simmons should still be a unanimous lock now. The only reason he isn't is because people are excited to have another top quality rookie to talk about and probably a certain overvaluation of points on their own combined with a few other reasons.

Mitchell is very good. I'm not sure how good, but he sure looks like a future allstar to me with the potential to be somewhere between Klay Thompson and Dwyane Wade. Despite that it still really shouldn't be a debate. Simmons is just simply better. The only thing Mitchell does better is score. He's a brilliant scorer who happens to do a lot of other things pretty damn well, too, but it's kind of like comparing, say, Kyrie Irving to Chris Paul. Both are absolutely fantastic players, but the only thing Irving does better is score, and Paul is a pretty good scorer himself. Everything else is Chris Paul to varying degrees. Not a knock on Irving or Mitchell, just a reality. To be honest, just ignoring being a rookie, Simmons' season is simply more amazing than he's getting credit for right now.

If the vote was held today, I’m confident Simmons would not win unanimously. Regardless of the reasons why.

You are probably right. And while someone is free to take up Mitchell's candidacy, I do think that the injury year/Process hater factor will definitely be there for some voters.

The not a rookie narrative is nonsense.

Hating the process is a little more understandable.

[michaelm]

clutch cannot simply be definded but a players scoring at that time, especially when everybody already agrees that scoring wise mitchell > simmons.

good chance that Simmons has created better opportunities for his team mates during those moments and 100% certain he has made more key defensive plays down the stretch (i know DM had a key steal the other night but simmons comes up big defensively fairly often and had multiple big plays defensively last night). Simmons rtg shows this.

none of this is meant to lower how nice it is that mitchell is becoming a high level closer as a rookie, more just pointing out that it doesn't change the argument of how we value them, mitchell is a better scorer start to finish then simmons, simmons is better at everything else start to finish

Rookie scorer of the year is obviously Mitchell.

Actual ROTY should come down to who helps their team win more, whatever quarter they do it in, imo.

I am a Simmons partisan, but Mitchell is making a good case for himself during Utah’s recent run. If Utah and he continue in that vein for the rest of the season, it will be hard to overlook him. The Sixers have been pretty good since Christmas as well though, and won the regular season series over Utah as others have said.

We need to see the rest of the regular season imo.

[downtownpie]

If the vote was held today, I’m confident Simmons would not win unanimously. Regardless of the reasons why.

You are probably right. And while someone is free to take up Mitchell's candidacy, I do think that the injury year/Process hater factor will definitely be there for some voters.

The not a rookie narrative is nonsense.

Hating the process is a little more understandable.

I think there is also a bit of 'anyone but Simmons' going on after Kuzma, Tatum, Ball etc got left behind.

[Black Mage]

This might be the first time I have ever heard of people arguing a guy doesnt deserve ROY while also being in contention for all star game and NBA all defensive team.

Insane.

[CoreyGallagher]

The not a rookie narrative is nonsense.

Hating the process is a little more understandable.

Nonsense in that it won't affect the voting? Or nonsense that it shouldn't? Because Chris Webber has already stated that he wouldn't vote for him for that reason and Reggie Miller has alluded to it and that it's in his consideration as well. Those are just two that I recall off of the top of my head, I'm sure there are others.