Cooper Flagg

[Pelly24]

Not sure if i said this already, but I don't see Flagg being worse than a top 20 player. I see top 10 player as a mid-level outcome. Top 3 is his ceiling. Could be a better Jalen Williams, could be a better Jimmy Butler or a more offensively talented Kirilenko

[12footrim]

I expect him to be the #1 pick and longterm it will probably work out well, but a lot of people are already talking about him as the best player in college basketball or top 5. I think expecting a 6-9, 200lb dude that plays in the post to come into college basketball at the age of 17 and be a top 5 player like I've seen some pick him is ridiculous in the super senior era. Freshmen are struggling more than ever per kenpom.

He not only has that working against him, he doesn't turn 18 until like the last week of December when there will be many 23 and 24 year old 250lb post players in college basketball next year in the last year of the super senior. It's basically like a high school Junior playing in college basketball if you take his age and those in their 5th or 6th years and he will run into Bacot and DJ Burns types.

This is where you get it entirely wrong and don't understand the stats. Anthony Davis was nearly putting up Zach Edey numbers and value per possession in college . He had the #1 PER in the nation that year, the #1 in Defensive rating, Defensive win shares and win shares, #1 in offensive rating, number 1 in net differential. #1 in box plus minus etc etc etc. He's top 10 all time in these. In all the major value stats he was #1 just like Edey, all time great infact. #2 all time in Box plus minus ahead of Edey.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/men/2012-leaders.html

You just got to understand what you are looking at.

Flagg has only been 18 for a few weeks and hes currently #2 in defensive rating (Flagg = 81.3 / AD = 80.7), #1 in defensive win shares, 9th in win shares, #3 in box plus minus (Flagg = +14.3 / AD = +17.2), and #3 in defensive box plus minus (Flagg = +7.7 / AD = +8.1).

Averaging 17.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.6 spg, 1.3 bpg on 46%/31%/78% shooting.

Defensive rating and stats like this are more of a product of your team. If he was on Rutgers it wouldn't be that. He benifiets from playing a lot of the game with Maliq Brown at center where the defense is anchored who has a basically identical Defensive Rating and until 2 games ago was the best on the team. In reality he is not even the one driving it like AD was at Center with his 4.8 blocks a game. You could see why that defense was so good with him as the head of the snake. There was no one else like Brown anywhere close to that defensive rating. Next closest on that team was 8 points lower. Clearly, he was the guy holding it up. Duke's is clearly ensemble of a lot of good defensive talent Flagg is a cog in.

Infact Flagg's defensive steals and Blocks have been disappointing and far under the projections on this board and my own. That's the one area I thought he'd be far more disruptive than he has been. He's barely top 10 block or steal percentage in either in the worst power conference.

The reality is he has a below average True shooting and at 54% true shooting and a 26 PER which isn't elite either when you play 97% of your minutes at PF. The average national player of the year the last 6 years since Zion has averaged a 37 PER 65% true shooting while averaging well over 20 and 10. and most of them played vs top 5 to 10 SOS's. He plays in a **** ACC. The level people were talking him up as, best player in college basketball best he's not there. Even in metrics like Torviks player PRPG he's 34th.

[Braggins]

Spoiler:

I expect him to be the #1 pick and longterm it will probably work out well, but a lot of people are already talking about him as the best player in college basketball or top 5. I think expecting a 6-9, 200lb dude that plays in the post to come into college basketball at the age of 17 and be a top 5 player like I've seen some pick him is ridiculous in the super senior era. Freshmen are struggling more than ever per kenpom.

He not only has that working against him, he doesn't turn 18 until like the last week of December when there will be many 23 and 24 year old 250lb post players in college basketball next year in the last year of the super senior. It's basically like a high school Junior playing in college basketball if you take his age and those in their 5th or 6th years and he will run into Bacot and DJ Burns types.

This is where you get it entirely wrong and don't understand the stats. Anthony Davis was nearly putting up Zach Edey numbers and value per possession in college . He had the #1 PER in the nation that year, the #1 in Defensive rating, Defensive win shares and win shares, #1 in offensive rating, number 1 in net differential. #1 in box plus minus etc etc etc. He's top 10 all time in these. In all the major value stats he was #1 just like Edey, all time great infact. #2 all time in Box plus minus ahead of Edey.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/men/2012-leaders.html

You just got to understand what you are looking at.

Flagg has only been 18 for a few weeks and hes currently #2 in defensive rating (Flagg = 81.3 / AD = 80.7), #1 in defensive win shares, 9th in win shares, #3 in box plus minus (Flagg = +14.3 / AD = +17.2), and #3 in defensive box plus minus (Flagg = +7.7 / AD = +8.1).

Averaging 17.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.6 spg, 1.3 bpg on 46%/31%/78% shooting.

Defensive rating and stats like this are more of a product of your team. If he was on Rutgers it wouldn't be that. He benifiets from playing a lot of the game with Maliq Brown at center where the defense is anchored who has a basically identical Defensive Rating and until 2 games ago was the best on the team. In reality he is not even the one driving it like AD was at Center with his 4.8 blocks a game. You could see why that defense was so good with him as the head of the snake. There was no one else like Brown anywhere close to that defensive rating. Next closest on that team was 8 points lower. Clearly, he was the guy holding it up. Duke's is clearly ensemble of a lot of good defensive talent Flagg is a cog in.

Infact Flagg's defensive steals and Blocks have been disappointing and far under the projections on this board and my own. That's the one area I thought he'd be far more disruptive than he has been. He's barely top 10 block or steal percentage in either in the worst power conference.

The reality is he has a below average True shooting and at 54% true shooting and a 26 PER which isn't elite either when you play 97% of your minutes at PF. The average national player of the year the last 6 years since Zion has averaged a 37 PER 65% true shooting while averaging well over 20 and 10. and most of them played vs top 5 to 10 SOS's. He plays in a **** ACC. The level people were talking him up as, best player in college basketball best he's not there. Even in metrics like Torviks player PRPG he's 34th.

Every stat I cited in my post was brought up by you in the post I was responding to. You specifically brought them up because you obviously didn't think he was going to do as well as in them as he has, which you wanted to use as evidence that he was overhyped and couldn't possibly be a top 5 player in the NCAA as a 17/18 year old. Now that he is grading out as a top 5 player according to the stats you yourself brought up you are making arguments to undermine the validity of those stats... Good stuff. I'm sure continuing to double down is going to work out well.

[azcatz11]

Not sure if i said this already, but I don't see Flagg being worse than a top 20 player. I see top 10 player as a mid-level outcome. Top 3 is his ceiling. Could be a better Jalen Williams, could be a better Jimmy Butler or a more offensively talented Kirilenko

40 point bomb today. Showed the complete package and hit a bunch of 3's in the first half.

[ClubLakers KB8]

He just turned 18. He's gonna be special.

[Duke4life831]

Didn’t just set Duke’s freshman scoring record today, but the ACC freshman scoring record. That’s really impressive when considering the talent that has gone through the ACC.

And the craziest thing is, his scoring was probably the least hyped up part of his game.

[JustBuzzin]

He's living up to the hype lately.

Now the praise is justified. I call it like I see it.

[Marvin Martian]

His unselfishness and ability to make simple passes to cutters makes me very comfortable with him being a primary ball handler.

[TwitterFingers]

I just watched him play for the first time, and I came away very impressed. He’s really smooth

[NoDopeOnSundays]

He looks quicker than he did a few weeks ago.

[Handlez]

Damn he went TF off today.

[HotRocks34]

Look out. Look out.

You could see it coming.

Watch on YouTube

[HotRocks34]

Read on Twitter

If the guy can score consistently, the sky is the limit.

[zero rings]

42 points on 14 shots is obviously amazing, but what really impressed me was his floor game. He was throwing lobs all game like he was Luka.

His jump shot is really the only question mark at this point, and it's not even that big of a question mark. Right now, he looks like an athletic point forward who can score at all levels and defend 1-5. Crazy good prospect.

[Castle Black]

Didn’t just set Duke’s freshman scoring record today, but the ACC freshman scoring record. That’s really impressive when considering the talent that has gone through the ACC.

And the craziest thing is, his scoring was probably the least hyped up part of his game.

And it wasn't forced either. None of his points came because he was forcing the action or trying to pad his stats, it was all in the flow of the game. Impressive kid for sure. Definitely a lock to go #1.

[Sedale Threatt]

Didn’t just set Duke’s freshman scoring record today, but the ACC freshman scoring record. That’s really impressive when considering the talent that has gone through the ACC.

And the craziest thing is, his scoring was probably the least hyped up part of his game.

I've only watched him a few times and his offensive game is probably the last thing that impresses me, and it's very good. He's just so long and active and bouncy. I think he's got a chance to be one of the all-time great defensive players, who can also get you 20-plus while playing really smart, team-oriented basketball. Just an extremely impressive all-around prospect.

[damanick10]

Extremely impressive... a franchise altering prospect

[316Hornets]

Seems like a good fit on the Warriors.

[NYPiston]

I've said it before, he's as surefire a prospect as you'll see. He might not have the upside of the generational guys (Lebron, Wemby) but I think he's a safe bet to be a top 20 NBA player. His game is so complete already, the only question is his scoring ceiling because everything else about his game is high level and he just turned 18. You hardly ever see prospects this age with such a complete game.

[Cavsfansince84]

All the hate he's already getting saying he can't be more than an all star when he'll probably be viewed by most as a top 15 NBA player by the time he's 21. No one really thought Luka could be top 10 by year 2 until he actually did it either.