My take on what Hinkie. He was great for Philadelphia 76ers long-term title odds and those focused on Philadelphia 76ers long-term odds. He was also very bad for the NBA as a whole.
His theory, spelled out below, is ~90% correct.
1. Superstars are the most important part of basketball teams.
2. Superstars are the hardest player to acquire
3. Teams can acquire them most easily in the draft.
4. The draft lottery odds (old ones) make intentionally losing games a good strategy for long-term title contention.
5. The best way to intentionally lose games isn't by having players intentionally play bad but intentionally acquiring bad players in the pre-season who will work hard but lack the ability to win.
6. NBA revenue sharing ensures your team can maintain profitability when intentionally losing because you can free ride off national revenues.
This was a great strategy for the Sixers and on a long-enough timeline would work for any team.
But it is a terrible strategy for the NBA stakeholders (all teams/players/business partners). Titles are zero sum competition. All Hinkie did was redistribute titles to Philadelphia.
His strategy incentivized:
1. The Sixers by point differential had the worst 3 year stretch in league history. They got a HOFer, a player who could still make the HOF (in Ben Simmons) and a lot of other top picks.
2. Other teams would look this and say we should adopt the Hinkie Model by gutting their rosters pre-season.
3. This creates more unmarketable games because NBA teams now had to sell regular season games against a Philadelphia roster that (i) were bad; (ii) had abnormally bad records and (ii) had players no one had ever heard of.
4. Sixers local tv ratings collapsed during the tank job. They were averaging 26k viewers at one point in one of the NBA largest markets.
https://www.poughkeepsiejournal.com/story/sports/2014/12/02/ers-fans-hold-hope-losses-mount/19814531/5. The Sixers strategy of not signing players above the league pissed off the players union because veterans couldn't get jobs.
6. The Sixers strategy of not caring about local revenue pissed off the other owners because they knew Philly was free riding off of national tv deals.
7. The Sixers strategy really pissed off the NBA's business partners who benefit from each team going all out.
8. If the Philly strategy spread to 4-5, NBA would have a significant revenue problem as the revenue loss from the tanking would be substantial on a year in year out basis even if those teams were maximizing their long-term title odds.
In short, Hinkie had a great strategy to increase the Sixers title odds. If I was a Philly focused on raising a banner in Philadelphia I'd applaud. But it was also a strategy that was really bad from an NBA perspective. I use NBA to refer to all the players, owners and business partners of the league.
He was costing them money. I don't think the NBA did enough but changing the odds and blacklisting Hinkie was required after the strategy was implemented and successful. If someone else tries it the NBA will need another round of reform.