RGM GOAT Debate Thread (Part 2)

[levon]

If you cannot explain something and you want to get to the truth you must develop tools that do. If there is a cure for a disease that works almost automatically but you cannot explain it and conventional wisdom says it shouldn't work do you say it isn't a cure? If a player is winning contrary to all conventional wisdom what do you do? Insist on the conventional wisdom?

If I favor certain measures over others it's probably because they are the best in our current toolkit that explain what Curry, contrary to expectations, has done. They are the ones that come closest to the truth. Curry is the kind of anomaly that can demand such a shift.

Brother if you got a better statistical model, produce it for us, share it with the community, and have people evaluate. But don't pit narrative elements like "change the game" with numbers. LeBron arguably has many more narratives going for him. For instance, winning a title with three different franchises, coaches, and playing styles. His last title was won as a point guard in which he led the league in assists.

Imagine a player who can be your point guard, wing defender, spot up shooter, post defender, and roll big in the same game. That's LeBron at 40. This dude has played 8 more seasons worth of basketball than Curry. He's like the closest thing to if you maxed out every single achievement and stat in the skill tree. Seems pretty anomalous to me.

LeBron is an anomaly in the sense of a physical specimen. But he is not the kind of anomaly Curry is. LeBron's success on the basketball court is in line with expectations. Curry's is not. Curry operates on a different far less understood paradigm. As such his upper limit is harder to gauge.

In my view 2016 should have made it clear to everybody that Curry was on the fast track to a top 10 player ever. It shocks me people keep trying to deny what is so plainly obvious to me. Curry's performance was so stunning that year he locked up the MVP in February. He went unanimous and it was perfectly justifiable. He was 5 points away from a year that could be seen as clearly superior to Jordan's 1996 and it's quite likely it was getting injured that stopped him.

You want a statistical model? Curry led a team to the best single regular season record. Curry led a team to the best single season playoffs record. Curry led a team to 67+ wins in three consecutive seasons. Curry led a team that was at the absolute basement of the league to a championship within 2 seasons. Record. Record. Record. This is all one-of-one stuff. That is the definition of greatest.

Those 67 win seasons resulted in losing to the better player because he frankly wasn't good in the Finals. And then recruiting a player arguably equal or better than him with cap space. Trust me, these aren't the flexes you think and this is why I left the rings out of it. Both LeBron and Curry have won at the highest levels. I'm not about to use regular season team success and KD being insecure as the tiebreaker, with all due respect. 2022 was a nice run, and I wasn't even trying to discredit the Warriors success.

Your whole argument is he's been the constant in a dynasty. My argument is if you want to make that argument, you should consider that the other guy actually led his team to 4 titles in three different cities. Suss out the confounding factors, you know.

[WarriorGM]

Brother if you got a better statistical model, produce it for us, share it with the community, and have people evaluate. But don't pit narrative elements like "change the game" with numbers. LeBron arguably has many more narratives going for him. For instance, winning a title with three different franchises, coaches, and playing styles. His last title was won as a point guard in which he led the league in assists.

Imagine a player who can be your point guard, wing defender, spot up shooter, post defender, and roll big in the same game. That's LeBron at 40. This dude has played 8 more seasons worth of basketball than Curry. He's like the closest thing to if you maxed out every single achievement and stat in the skill tree. Seems pretty anomalous to me.

LeBron is an anomaly in the sense of a physical specimen. But he is not the kind of anomaly Curry is. LeBron's success on the basketball court is in line with expectations. Curry's is not. Curry operates on a different far less understood paradigm. As such his upper limit is harder to gauge.

In my view 2016 should have made it clear to everybody that Curry was on the fast track to a top 10 player ever. It shocks me people keep trying to deny what is so plainly obvious to me. Curry's performance was so stunning that year he locked up the MVP in February. He went unanimous and it was perfectly justifiable. He was 5 points away from a year that could be seen as clearly superior to Jordan's 1996 and it's quite likely it was getting injured that stopped him.

You want a statistical model? Curry led a team to the best single regular season record. Curry led a team to the best single season playoffs record. Curry led a team to 67+ wins in three consecutive seasons. Curry led a team that was at the absolute basement of the league to a championship within 2 seasons. Record. Record. Record. This is all one-of-one stuff. That is the definition of greatest.

Those 67 win seasons resulted in losing to the better player because he frankly wasn't good in the Finals. And then recruiting a player arguably equal or better than him with cap space. Trust me, these aren't the flexes you think and this is why I left the rings out of it. Both LeBron and Curry have won at the highest levels. I'm not about to use regular season team success and KD being insecure as the tiebreaker, with all due respect. 2022 was a nice run, and I wasn't even trying to discredit the Warriors success.

Your whole argument is he's been the constant in a dynasty. My argument is if you want to make that argument, you should consider that the other guy actually led his team to 4 titles in three different cities. Suss out the confounding factors, you know.

Your "better player" lost in 2015. In 2016 Curry expended himself chasing 73 wins and then taking out two adjacent MVPs playing simultaneously against him. LeBron's 2016 is only notable for beating Curry in the finals. LeBron's accomplishment that year basically rests on the accomplishments of Curry.

You asked for the model. I gave it: records. In a different sport, say athletics, it should be very clear why that is important. When Curry won as the sole superstar it was in situations where it was unexpected (i.e. greater difficulty). When Curry won with another superstar it is on the team widely regarded as the best NBA team ever.

[MavsDirk41]

I'm not going to read through this entire thread but the NBA GOAT debate to me is dead.

The gap between Lebron and # 2 is considerably larger than the gap between 2-5. Lebron has a great argument for best peak and best 4 year stretch but you can argue for others but he just overwhelms everyone else with elite season due to his early start followed by extreme durability.

And coming from the Jordan generation, I have to say we are embarrassing in denying this.

Lol is all i have to say

[Gregoire]

NBA GOAT debate was dead then MJ was born. 172-83 votes... Its TKO.
LeBron fans are just trying sooo much... Its so childish. His idol is 2nd at max. Also Curry have the argument for better peak and 3-4 year prime than LeGM.

[michaelm]

Brother if you got a better statistical model, produce it for us, share it with the community, and have people evaluate. But don't pit narrative elements like "change the game" with numbers. LeBron arguably has many more narratives going for him. For instance, winning a title with three different franchises, coaches, and playing styles. His last title was won as a point guard in which he led the league in assists.

Imagine a player who can be your point guard, wing defender, spot up shooter, post defender, and roll big in the same game. That's LeBron at 40. This dude has played 8 more seasons worth of basketball than Curry. He's like the closest thing to if you maxed out every single achievement and stat in the skill tree. Seems pretty anomalous to me.

LeBron is an anomaly in the sense of a physical specimen. But he is not the kind of anomaly Curry is. LeBron's success on the basketball court is in line with expectations. Curry's is not. Curry operates on a different far less understood paradigm. As such his upper limit is harder to gauge.

In my view 2016 should have made it clear to everybody that Curry was on the fast track to a top 10 player ever. It shocks me people keep trying to deny what is so plainly obvious to me. Curry's performance was so stunning that year he locked up the MVP in February. He went unanimous and it was perfectly justifiable. He was 5 points away from a year that could be seen as clearly superior to Jordan's 1996 and it's quite likely it was getting injured that stopped him.

You want a statistical model? Curry led a team to the best single regular season record. Curry led a team to the best single season playoffs record. Curry led a team to 67+ wins in three consecutive seasons. Curry led a team that was at the absolute basement of the league to a championship within 2 seasons. Record. Record. Record. This is all one-of-one stuff. That is the definition of greatest.

Those 67 win seasons resulted in losing to the better player because he frankly wasn't good in the Finals. And then recruiting a player arguably equal or better than him with cap space. Trust me, these aren't the flexes you think and this is why I left the rings out of it. Both LeBron and Curry have won at the highest levels. I'm not about to use regular season team success and KD being insecure as the tiebreaker, with all due respect. 2022 was a nice run, and I wasn't even trying to discredit the Warriors success.

Your whole argument is he's been the constant in a dynasty. My argument is if you want to make that argument, you should consider that the other guy actually led his team to 4 titles in three different cities. Suss out the confounding factors, you know.

Unlike Warrior GM most GSW fans feel no need to put Curry into the GOAT debate, we are very happy with what he has achieved leading our team, including a team which is well in the discussion for the best ever. The latter would actually be a positive in any other sport at any time, and it certainly is for GSW fans. The only difference between the KD/Curry superteam and the LeBron superteams imo is that it actually worked, no one has ever shown me how LeBron’s intent was any different, and even leaving the peak Jordan Bulls aside there are other teams which have been better than any LeBron team, including at least one Duncan Spurs team. Feel free to enjoy LeBron’s individual statistics in a team sport, but he has not as yet helmed a great team, and in a team sport that is actually a negative, only imo of course.

[WarriorGM]

Unlike Warrior GM most GSW fans feel no need to put Curry into the GOAT debate, we are very happy with what he has achieved leading our team, including a team which is well in the discussion for the best ever. The latter would actually be a positive in any other sport at any time, and it certainly is for GSW fans.

The GSW fans you speak of are probably fans of just the GSW. I'm sure they are happy to receive the titles given to them by Curry. They were happy to receive the fourth even if they didn't believe he could actually win it and they'll be happy to receive a fifth, sixth, and seventh title as well if Curry somehow manages to deliver them. Whether they'll have an appreciation or interest in the portent of such achievements, who knows. Such fans are fans of their organization and limited to parochial interests. They are not fans of greatness.

I on the other hand am a fan of greatness. That's why I feel a need to include Curry in the debate. Shaq is also a fan of greatness. That's why he thought it necessary to proclaim that Curry needs to be in the conversation. Do you think it's because he is a fan of the GSW? Curry transcends the GSW. All fans of greatness who recognize Curry's will feel compelled to include him in discussions of the game's greatest.

[EmpireFalls]

This guy cracks me up man what can I say

[DOT]

Interesting how all the "losing in the Finals means you can't be the GOAT" posters all of a sudden don't care about Finals losses when it's someone not named LeBron.

[Djoker]

It's been an interesting discussion the last few pages. I think any GOAT argument around Curry would center around the unreal ceiling raising. The point of the game is to win and he took the team to legendary heights from 2015-2017 (really 2015-2019 if we consider games in which Curry played). Being the best player on some of the best teams ever matters a lot. And then in 2022, he won another ring with a definitely not weak but pretty meh supporting cast historically so he demonstrated at least good floor raising. I think we've become immune to numbers from the constant bombardment but Jake gave us some of Curry's impact numbers a few pages ago. They are just unreal... Those teams, even the great teams from 2015-2017, looked mediocre without him playing around .500 ball. Then he pops in and they play at near 70-win pace. How people can just hand-wave that away baffles me. The Finals MVP argument isn't really an argument. He was clearly the best player in the 2015 Finals and should have won it. In 2017 and 2018, the defenses were keying in on him which helped KD go off, not the other way around. Curry was clearly the most impactful player on all those Warriors title teams.

When it comes down to it though, neither Lebron nor Curry are in that GOAT tier to me. Neither were as consistently great as Jordan and Russell in terms of winning. They had disappointments in the playoffs. Curry's GOAT ship kind of sailed in 2016. It would always be a stain on his career.

[70sFan]

NBA GOAT debate was dead then MJ was born. 172-83 votes... Its TKO.
LeBron fans are just trying sooo much... Its so childish. His idol is 2nd at max. Also Curry have the argument for better peak and 3-4 year prime than LeGM.

I am still waiting when Jordan surpasses Russell, but it's unlikely at this point, considering his age.

[Ainosterhaspie]

LeBron is a better athlete than Curry. LeBron is a better defender than Curry. LeBron is a better rebounder than Curry. LeBron is a better playmaker than Curry. LeBron was better at a younger age. LeBron is more durable. LeBron has outplayed Curry in every series they've faced each other.

It is obvious that Curry's success in facing LeBron has mostly been due to having elite roster depth and better coaching.

In 2015 it wasn't even close. Curry's team almost always had 4 of the 5 best players on the floor at any given time. Despite this, LeBron, in a down year for him.by the way, managed to make it a competitive series. It looked like the Cavs could win it until Kerr discovered going small and the Cavs started running out of gas due to lack of depth. The series changed, not because of Curry's greatness, but Iguodala's. Yes Curry is and was better than Iggy, but Curry wasn't good enough to beat back back Bron and a mediocre at best supporting cast without elite support.

LeBron dominated Curry in the 2016 series. That year incidently showed how elite the Warriors depth was as they were able to win playoff series in the deep west with Curry out due to injury. Somehow people even turn that sort of thing into a sign of Curry's greatness. He's so good off ball, he doesn't even have to be on court to make teammates better.

Then after getting embarrassed Curry teams with the second or third best player in the league, because having a perennial DPOY, elite three shooting wing and top tier sixth man and perimeter defender wasn't enough for a 72 win team to compete with James.

Unsurprisingly that team was really good. But Curry was about it's 5th or 6th best defender and not it's best scorer. He loses his two best scoring teammates in 2019 and promptly loses the series they go out. Then in the following regular season, looks completely beatable until he goes out for the season.

Curry is a weaker defender than any other GOAT level player by a large margin. He was slower to near or reach top tier play. His game is more dependent on teammates than any GOAT level player. His scoring resiliance is not a strong as most GOATs and when his scoring is off, he has fewer other ways of impacting a series that the GOATS.

[KokoKaizer]

Interesting...

You see the poll result

MJ in a landslide

And now, some people feel so insecure about one poster claiming Curry is the GOAT...

One poster...

Interesting...

[lessthanjake]

LeBron is a better athlete than Curry. LeBron is a better defender than Curry. LeBron is a better rebounder than Curry. LeBron is a better playmaker than Curry. LeBron was better at a younger age. LeBron is more durable. LeBron has outplayed Curry in every series they've faced each other.

That’s pretty much all true, but Steph is also *dramatically* better at the game’s most fundamental skill (i.e. shooting). Obviously Steph’s case for being a better or more impactful player would derive heavily from the effect of that. I think it’s fine to say that LeBron’s strengths outweigh that (I would tend to agree), but listing individual strengths and not mentioning shooting here is obviously missing the elephant in the room.

In 2015 it wasn't even close. Curry's team almost always had 4 of the 5 best players on the floor at any given time. Despite this, LeBron, in a down year for him.by the way, managed to make it a competitive series. It looked like the Cavs could win it until Kerr discovered going small and the Cavs started running out of gas due to lack of depth. The series changed, not because of Curry's greatness, but Iguodala's. Yes Curry is and was better than Iggy, but Curry wasn't good enough to beat back back Bron and a mediocre at best supporting cast without elite support.

That’s reading a lot into three games, in which the Warriors outscored the Cavs overall. In any event, Steph outplayed LeBron in that series. LeBron shot absolutely horribly (47.7% TS%), while Steph shot a lot better and was massively impactful by being doubled almost every possession. Any argument that LeBron played better relies on an elaborate bank shot about how LeBron’s team did better than we might expect under the circumstances so LeBron must’ve been better than Steph, even though we can see clear as day that LeBron shot horribly (as he had that entire playoffs). It’s just a really indirect argument that requires us to ignore what we actually saw from these players individually. Yes, Cleveland winning two games was pretty good under the circumstances, but they ultimately lost 4-2, and the Warriors were a very inexperienced team (i.e. one we might expect to underperform a bit in the bright lights of the Finals) and the Cleveland guys played good defense. That’s all there is to it. LeBron did not outplay Steph. Quite the opposite.

LeBron dominated Curry in the 2016 series. That year incidently showed how elite the Warriors depth was as they were able to win playoff series in the deep west with Curry out due to injury. Somehow people even turn that sort of thing into a sign of Curry's greatness. He's so good off ball, he doesn't even have to be on court to make teammates better.

LeBron was better than Curry (who was coming off an injury) in the 2016 Finals. But no one “dominated” anyone in that series. The Cavaliers barely won, and probably would’ve lost in 5 games if Draymond had not been an idiot.

As for what the Warriors did without Steph in those playoffs, it is worth noting that the Warriors didn’t really do much of anything that was impressive in those playoffs without Steph. They played 6 games without Steph, and the winner of those 6 games was the home team in every game. And the opponents in question were mediocre 0.34 SRS and 0.98 SRS teams. In other words, all the Warriors did in those playoffs without Steph was hold serve against teams that were less than 1 SRS teams. They ultimately only won away games in those series with Steph. Holding serve against mediocre teams isn’t indicative of much, and is pretty consistent with the Warriors in the entire 2015-2019 era looking like a very average team in games Steph didn’t play, while being a GOAT-level team when he did play.

Then after getting embarrassed Curry teams with the second or third best player in the league, because having a perennial DPOY, elite three shooting wing and top tier sixth man and perimeter defender wasn't enough for a 72 win team to compete with James.

Unsurprisingly that team was really good. But Curry was about its 5th or 6th best defender and not its best scorer.

This is a really elaborate way to talk around the fact that Steph was demonstrably the most impactful player in those Durant years. They played a lot of games without Steph in those years, and they were a very mediocre team in those games.

He loses his two best scoring teammates in 2019 and promptly loses the series they go out. Then in the following regular season, looks completely beatable until he goes out for the season.

Saying Steph “promptly los[t] the series they go out” is very misleading. Durant went down in the Western Conference semifinals, and Steph led them to victory away in Game 6 against a good team to close out the series. Durant did not play in the 2019 WCF either, which the Warriors swept anyways, behind a dominant series from Steph. Durant briefly tried to come back in the Finals and got injured again, and Klay went out too. So technically what you say is sort of true, but it misleadingly ignores the fact that the Warriors closed out a series and won another series without Durant.

Curry is a weaker defender than any other GOAT level player by a large margin. He was slower to near or reach top tier play. His game is more dependent on teammates than any GOAT level player. His scoring resiliance is not a strong as most GOATs and when his scoring is off, he has fewer other ways of impacting a series that the GOATS.

I really don’t think that’s true. Even when Steph’s shot is off, teams still guard him as if his shot is on, because they’re aware that a player like that just needs to see one shot go in and he can start going off, and there’s perhaps nothing scarier in NBA history than Steph going off. So they can’t risk it. And if teams are guarding him as if his shot is on, then he really is impacting the game a lot, because teams give up so much in order to try to limit Steph.

[Sedale Threatt]

Raw win-loss just seems like a dumb standard to hang your argument on, in addition to unquantifiable woo-woo BS like "floor raising" or whatever.

That 73-win team was amazing, no question. You look at that roster, and as great as the top three complemented each other, with Curry having an all-time season -- among other things, the fact he shot 50% while taking 55% of his shots from the arc, many of those high difficulty, and 70% overall outside the paint is f'ing staggering -- you're probably not pegging them as the record-holder.

But Basketball Reference has them overachieving by eight wins, and they didn't even lead the league in net differential that season. Their SRS is neck-and-neck with San Antonio, which won exactly as many games as their expected record. And of course, they blew it in the Finals -- the exact kind of loss that a lot of people would automatically disqualify any other player for, similar to LeBron's choke job against Dallas in 2011. (That team was still so good Curry had arguably his worst game of the season in Game 1 and they won by 15. And then of course he was terrible in Game 7 and they lost, at home, with a championship on the line.)

And then Durant's arrival skews everything. It was a total circumstantial fluke with the cap bump that allowed an already championship-proven team to add one of the greatest scorers in NBA history.

Hell, if we're gonna do W/L, which is more impressive -- that three-year Warriors run, or Jordan's six championship teams averaging 65 wins, finishing 1st in net rating four times, losing a grand total of 26 playoff games in 24 series with two separate three-peats, something the Warriors couldn't even do once?

[lessthanjake]

LeBron teammates while playing with him have accumulated 0.11 of MVP vote share over 22 seasons.
That's 0.005 votes per season.

Jordan teammate while playing with him have accumulated 0.33 of MVP vote share over 15 seasons.
That's 0.022 votes per season.
This is over 4 times that of LeBron.

People speak of LeBron's teammates but the level of talent in prime just doesn't compare to Jordan in their respective careers.

Part of being great is elevating your teammates though, and one criticism of LeBron is that he doesn’t necessarily fit well with other major stars and that they have to scale back their game to accommodate him. So this sort of information could cut either way.

That's not true though.

LeBron didn't make players worse, he made many better. Some stars may have an obvious drop off in stats because he takes over some stats while being on the floor. But that happens with all of the best players.

Do you think the same of Jordan because Rodman dropped off on Bulls or because Pippen was an MVP threat without Jordan?

What star became better with LeBron? Definitely not Wade, Bosh, Kyrie, or Love.

Let’s look at this a couple ways.

First, let’s go to the NBArapm website and look at the RAPM for these guys in years with and without LeBron. Kyrie’s three-year RAPM in 2015-17 was +1.8. It has been higher (and often by a lot) in all but one three-year span after that. Kevin Love’s four-year RAPM in 2015-18 was +3.1. It was higher in the four-year span just before he played with LeBron, and it was higher in the next couple years afterwards too. In fact, that specific four-year span was his worst four-year RAPM span in his prime. Chris Bosh’s four-year RAPM in his years with LeBron was a good bit lower than it had been in his pre-Miami years. And the same is certainly true for Dwyane Wade. Even Anthony Davis had a higher five-year RAPM in the five years before he joined LeBron than in the five years with LeBron (though this one was actually close—reflecting the often-held view that this was the least bad fit for a star with LeBron). In other words, every major star to play with LeBron had lower impact in their years with LeBron than they did in other years.

Second, let’s look instead at the years they played with LeBron and see how impactful these guys were in the minutes they played with LeBron compared to the minutes without him. Specifically, let’s take the minutes these teams played with LeBron and see what the team’s net rating was in the minutes with the other star, compared to what it was in minutes without the star. That indicates what the player’s on-off was in LeBron’s minutes. And then let’s do the same in non-LeBron minutes, to get these players’ on-off in non-LeBron minutes. We can then compare them, and see whether their on-off was better in LeBron’s minutes or in non-LeBron minutes. What do we find? Well, for Kyrie from 2015-2017, his on-off in LeBron minutes was only +0.19, while his on-off in non-LeBron minutes was +9.73. For Love from 2015-2018, his on-off in LeBron minutes was +3.56, while his on-off in non-LeBron minutes was +5.15. For Bosh from 2011-2014, his on-off in LeBron minutes was +5.36, while his on-off in non-LeBron minutes was +8.37. For Wade from 2011-2014, his on-off in LeBron minutes was +5.27, while his on-off in non-LeBron minutes was +5.36. For Anthony Davis from 2020-2025, his on-off in LeBron minutes was +1.16, while his on-off in non-LeBron minutes was +5.42. In other words, every major star LeBron has played with has had worse impact with LeBron on the floor than with LeBron off the floor.

Just to tie this together, what do we see here? Well, in the years Kyrie, Love, Bosh, Wade, and Davis played with LeBron, they all had more impact when LeBron was off the court than when LeBron was on the court. And they also all had more impact in other timeframes than they did in their years with LeBron. It’s basically not debatable that star players’ impact went down with LeBron.

[70sFan]

That’s pretty much all true, but Steph is also *dramatically* better at the game’s most fundamental skill (i.e. shooting).

Why is shooting the most fundamental skill in basketball? That's completely random assumption.

[zimpy27]

Part of being great is elevating your teammates though, and one criticism of LeBron is that he doesn’t necessarily fit well with other major stars and that they have to scale back their game to accommodate him. So this sort of information could cut either way.

That's not true though.

LeBron didn't make players worse, he made many better. Some stars may have an obvious drop off in stats because he takes over some stats while being on the floor. But that happens with all of the best players.

Do you think the same of Jordan because Rodman dropped off on Bulls or because Pippen was an MVP threat without Jordan?

What star became better with LeBron? Definitely not Wade, Bosh, Kyrie, or Love.

Let’s look at this a couple ways.

First, let’s go to the NBArapm website and look at the RAPM for these guys in years with and without LeBron. Kyrie’s three-year RAPM in 2015-17 was +1.8. It has been higher (and often by a lot) in all but one three-year span after that. Kevin Love’s four-year RAPM in 2015-18 was +3.1. It was higher in the four-year span just before he played with LeBron, and it was higher in the next couple years afterwards too. In fact, that specific four-year span was his worst four-year RAPM span in his prime. Chris Bosh’s four-year RAPM in his years with LeBron was a good bit lower than it had been in his pre-Miami years. And the same is certainly true for Dwyane Wade. Even Anthony Davis had a higher five-year RAPM in the five years before he joined LeBron than in the five years with LeBron (though this one was actually close—reflecting the often-held view that this was the least bad fit for a star with LeBron). In other words, every major star to play with LeBron had lower impact in their years with LeBron than they did in other years.

Second, let’s look instead at the years they played with LeBron and see how impactful these guys were in the minutes they played with LeBron compared to the minutes without him. Specifically, let’s take the minutes these teams played with LeBron and see what the team’s net rating was in the minutes with the other star, compared to what it was in minutes without the star. That indicates what the player’s on-off was in LeBron’s minutes. And then let’s do the same in non-LeBron minutes, to get these players’ on-off in non-LeBron minutes. We can then compare them, and see whether their on-off was better in LeBron’s minutes or in non-LeBron minutes. What do we find? Well, for Kyrie from 2015-2017, his on-off in LeBron minutes was only +0.19, while his on-off in non-LeBron minutes was +9.73. For Love from 2015-2018, his on-off in LeBron minutes was +3.56, while his on-off in non-LeBron minutes was +5.15. For Bosh from 2011-2014, his on-off in LeBron minutes was +5.36, while his on-off in non-LeBron minutes was +8.37. For Wade from 2011-2014, his on-off in LeBron minutes was +5.27, while his on-off in non-LeBron minutes was +5.36. For Anthony Davis from 2020-2025, his on-off in LeBron minutes was +1.16, while his on-off in non-LeBron minutes was +5.42. In other words, every major star LeBron has played with has had worse impact with LeBron on the floor than with LeBron off the floor.

Just to tie this together, what do we see here? Well, in the years Kyrie, Love, Bosh, Wade, and Davis played with LeBron, they all had more impact when LeBron was off the court than when LeBron was on the court. And they also all had more impact in other timeframes than they did in their years with LeBron. It’s basically not debatable that star players’ impact went down with LeBron.

That happens with all star players though. What you are talking about is adaptation to a reduced role when playing with a greater player.

You seem to think this is a LeBron trait when it's common to all great offensive players. There is only one ball.

LeBron also had a dip with Miami. Everyone had a dip. One ball.

[WarriorGM]

LeBron is a better athlete than Curry. LeBron is a better defender than Curry. LeBron is a better rebounder than Curry. LeBron is a better playmaker than Curry. LeBron was better at a younger age. LeBron is more durable.

Curry is a weaker defender than any other GOAT level player by a large margin. He was slower to near or reach top tier play. His game is more dependent on teammates than any GOAT level player. His scoring resiliance is not a strong as most GOATs and when his scoring is off, he has fewer other ways of impacting a series that the GOATS.

An aircraft carrier is bigger than a nuclear submarine. It's sturdier and can withstand more direct hits. It carries more men and has a more varied assortment of weapons.

Doesn't matter, the nuclear submarine is more dangerous.

LeBron has outplayed Curry in every series they've faced each other.

It is obvious that Curry's success in facing LeBron has mostly been due to having elite roster depth and better coaching.

In 2015 it wasn't even close. Curry's team almost always had 4 of the 5 best players on the floor at any given time. Despite this, LeBron, in a down year for him.by the way, managed to make it a competitive series. It looked like the Cavs could win it until Kerr discovered going small and the Cavs started running out of gas due to lack of depth. The series changed, not because of Curry's greatness, but Iguodala's. Yes Curry is and was better than Iggy, but Curry wasn't good enough to beat back back Bron and a mediocre at best supporting cast without elite support.

LeBron dominated Curry in the 2016 series. That year incidently showed how elite the Warriors depth was as they were able to win playoff series in the deep west with Curry out due to injury. Somehow people even turn that sort of thing into a sign of Curry's greatness. He's so good off ball, he doesn't even have to be on court to make teammates better.

Then after getting embarrassed Curry teams with the second or third best player in the league, because having a perennial DPOY, elite three shooting wing and top tier sixth man and perimeter defender wasn't enough for a 72 win team to compete with James.

Unsurprisingly that team was really good. But Curry was about it's 5th or 6th best defender and not it's best scorer. He loses his two best scoring teammates in 2019 and promptly loses the series they go out. Then in the following regular season, looks completely beatable until he goes out for the season.

Is there some reason this story of yours ends in 2020? Go on.

I think you won't though because your theory as shaky and dubious as it already is in the years you describe falls apart completely later.

There is a reason the word to describe Curry is revolutionary and why he is said to have changed the game.

LeBron can seem to vastly outplay Curry from the majority of traditional and conventional measures—and still lose badly. That losing despite appearing to look great should inevitably bring up the question: did he really outplay Curry?

Perhaps the basketball world could be forgiven in 2015 for not fully appreciating what Curry does and the effect he has on the basketball court but there is no excuse today.

LeBron by hopping around cashing in the assets of various teams and playing longer has cycled through more teammates than Curry who by not switching teams has been at the mercy of his front office's choices. That hasn't prevented Curry from winning the same number of championship in less time and leading more historically great teams.

[lessthanjake]

That's not true though.

LeBron didn't make players worse, he made many better. Some stars may have an obvious drop off in stats because he takes over some stats while being on the floor. But that happens with all of the best players.

Do you think the same of Jordan because Rodman dropped off on Bulls or because Pippen was an MVP threat without Jordan?

What star became better with LeBron? Definitely not Wade, Bosh, Kyrie, or Love.

Let’s look at this a couple ways.

First, let’s go to the NBArapm website and look at the RAPM for these guys in years with and without LeBron. Kyrie’s three-year RAPM in 2015-17 was +1.8. It has been higher (and often by a lot) in all but one three-year span after that. Kevin Love’s four-year RAPM in 2015-18 was +3.1. It was higher in the four-year span just before he played with LeBron, and it was higher in the next couple years afterwards too. In fact, that specific four-year span was his worst four-year RAPM span in his prime. Chris Bosh’s four-year RAPM in his years with LeBron was a good bit lower than it had been in his pre-Miami years. And the same is certainly true for Dwyane Wade. Even Anthony Davis had a higher five-year RAPM in the five years before he joined LeBron than in the five years with LeBron (though this one was actually close—reflecting the often-held view that this was the least bad fit for a star with LeBron). In other words, every major star to play with LeBron had lower impact in their years with LeBron than they did in other years.

Second, let’s look instead at the years they played with LeBron and see how impactful these guys were in the minutes they played with LeBron compared to the minutes without him. Specifically, let’s take the minutes these teams played with LeBron and see what the team’s net rating was in the minutes with the other star, compared to what it was in minutes without the star. That indicates what the player’s on-off was in LeBron’s minutes. And then let’s do the same in non-LeBron minutes, to get these players’ on-off in non-LeBron minutes. We can then compare them, and see whether their on-off was better in LeBron’s minutes or in non-LeBron minutes. What do we find? Well, for Kyrie from 2015-2017, his on-off in LeBron minutes was only +0.19, while his on-off in non-LeBron minutes was +9.73. For Love from 2015-2018, his on-off in LeBron minutes was +3.56, while his on-off in non-LeBron minutes was +5.15. For Bosh from 2011-2014, his on-off in LeBron minutes was +5.36, while his on-off in non-LeBron minutes was +8.37. For Wade from 2011-2014, his on-off in LeBron minutes was +5.27, while his on-off in non-LeBron minutes was +5.36. For Anthony Davis from 2020-2025, his on-off in LeBron minutes was +1.16, while his on-off in non-LeBron minutes was +5.42. In other words, every major star LeBron has played with has had worse impact with LeBron on the floor than with LeBron off the floor.

Just to tie this together, what do we see here? Well, in the years Kyrie, Love, Bosh, Wade, and Davis played with LeBron, they all had more impact when LeBron was off the court than when LeBron was on the court. And they also all had more impact in other timeframes than they did in their years with LeBron. It’s basically not debatable that star players’ impact went down with LeBron.

That happens with all star players though. What you are talking about is adaptation to a reduced role when playing with a greater player.

You seem to think this is a LeBron trait when it's common to all great offensive players. There is only one ball.

LeBron also had a dip with Miami. Everyone had a dip. One ball.

It is common to have lower box score stats, but a star having lower impact with a great offensive player is really not necessarily the case. You’re right that it’s definitely sometimes the case for other players. For example, Durant had a slightly lesser on-off in Steph minutes than in non-Steph minutes (though not by a lot). But there are plenty of instances of the opposite. For instance, from 2014-2025, Draymond has had a +7.03 on-off in Steph minutes, and a +4.61 on-off in non-Steph minutes. From 2021-2025, Murray has had a +4.12 on-off in Jokic minutes and a +0.95 on-off in non-Jokic minutes. Jokic hasn’t played with enough stars to have another example of a star, but FWIW, Gordon has a +3.24 on-off in Jokic minutes, and a +2.02 on-off in non-Jokic minutes. Shawn Marion had a +7.10 on-off in Nash minutes, and a +0.52 on-off in non-Nash minutes. While Amare had a better on-off in non-Nash minutes if we look at all their years together, it’s worth noting that Amare’s on-off was better in Nash minutes in their first four years together. And FWIW, while we only have a limited set of impact data from the 1990s (i.e. it only starts in 1997), we also know that Pippen’s RAPM was *way* better in his last couple years with Chicago than it was after that—his RAPM took an immediate massive tumble when he left Chicago.

So yeah, while you’re right that the effect I described with LeBron is definitely not rare, it’s definitely very possible for a secondary star’s impact to be magnified by a superstar. And we should celebrate that when it happens. It’s actually a huge part of what allows teams to reach the highest of heights and/or be better than the sum of their parts. LeBron has never shown himself able to magnify another star’s impact like that. And the stat you had posted to argue in LeBron’s favor is partially just reflective of that.

[WarriorGM]

That's not true though.

LeBron didn't make players worse, he made many better. Some stars may have an obvious drop off in stats because he takes over some stats while being on the floor. But that happens with all of the best players.

Do you think the same of Jordan because Rodman dropped off on Bulls or because Pippen was an MVP threat without Jordan?

What star became better with LeBron? Definitely not Wade, Bosh, Kyrie, or Love.

Let’s look at this a couple ways.

First, let’s go to the NBArapm website and look at the RAPM for these guys in years with and without LeBron. Kyrie’s three-year RAPM in 2015-17 was +1.8. It has been higher (and often by a lot) in all but one three-year span after that. Kevin Love’s four-year RAPM in 2015-18 was +3.1. It was higher in the four-year span just before he played with LeBron, and it was higher in the next couple years afterwards too. In fact, that specific four-year span was his worst four-year RAPM span in his prime. Chris Bosh’s four-year RAPM in his years with LeBron was a good bit lower than it had been in his pre-Miami years. And the same is certainly true for Dwyane Wade. Even Anthony Davis had a higher five-year RAPM in the five years before he joined LeBron than in the five years with LeBron (though this one was actually close—reflecting the often-held view that this was the least bad fit for a star with LeBron). In other words, every major star to play with LeBron had lower impact in their years with LeBron than they did in other years.

Second, let’s look instead at the years they played with LeBron and see how impactful these guys were in the minutes they played with LeBron compared to the minutes without him. Specifically, let’s take the minutes these teams played with LeBron and see what the team’s net rating was in the minutes with the other star, compared to what it was in minutes without the star. That indicates what the player’s on-off was in LeBron’s minutes. And then let’s do the same in non-LeBron minutes, to get these players’ on-off in non-LeBron minutes. We can then compare them, and see whether their on-off was better in LeBron’s minutes or in non-LeBron minutes. What do we find? Well, for Kyrie from 2015-2017, his on-off in LeBron minutes was only +0.19, while his on-off in non-LeBron minutes was +9.73. For Love from 2015-2018, his on-off in LeBron minutes was +3.56, while his on-off in non-LeBron minutes was +5.15. For Bosh from 2011-2014, his on-off in LeBron minutes was +5.36, while his on-off in non-LeBron minutes was +8.37. For Wade from 2011-2014, his on-off in LeBron minutes was +5.27, while his on-off in non-LeBron minutes was +5.36. For Anthony Davis from 2020-2025, his on-off in LeBron minutes was +1.16, while his on-off in non-LeBron minutes was +5.42. In other words, every major star LeBron has played with has had worse impact with LeBron on the floor than with LeBron off the floor.

Just to tie this together, what do we see here? Well, in the years Kyrie, Love, Bosh, Wade, and Davis played with LeBron, they all had more impact when LeBron was off the court than when LeBron was on the court. And they also all had more impact in other timeframes than they did in their years with LeBron. It’s basically not debatable that star players’ impact went down with LeBron.

That happens with all star players though. What you are talking about is adaptation to a reduced role when playing with a greater player.

You seem to think this is a LeBron trait when it's common to all great offensive players. There is only one ball.

LeBron also had a dip with Miami. Everyone had a dip. One ball.

This is where efficiency really helps. There is a penalty applied to a group of great players playing with one ball. But the penalty is not as high in comparison to another group with less efficiency.

Curry is among the most efficient high volume scorers ever and his presence tends to raise the efficiency of his teammates as much as anyone.