Will this be John Walls breakout year?

[nate33]

The excuse Wall has is the lockout.

Maybe he should have been working on the flaws in his game, instead of running it up on lesser competition in Pro-Am games? Because I remember several threads started on this very forum about how him dominating those silly games meant he was primed for a bust out last year.

I remember questioning the value of such games at the time and being blasted as just 'hating' on him by all his fans who were so sure those games were heralding his arrival. Now all of a sudden it was a lost offseason because of a lockout.

You are right Rerisen. That was my point. Wall should have been working alone in a gym on his jumpshot rather than running in Pro-Am games. Where I disagree is with your implication that Wall played in the Pro-Am games because he was somehow too lazy to work on his game. I think Wall honestly felt that the best way to improve was to play games against the best competition he could find. During the lockout, those charity events and Pro-Am games were about the best games available. It wasn't laziness or arrogance. It was ignorance. He didn't know how to develop his game in the offseason. Frankly, I think Wall was as surprised as everyone else about his lack of improvement.

Everyone makes mistakes. I'm giving Wall the benefit of the doubt. From all indications, he is doing things the right way this offseason. I expect much more improvement this year. If it doesn't happen, then I will cede that he is a big disappointment for a #1 overall pick. I just think it's too soon to render a verdict.

[Wharton Alum 08]

You sound irritated. LOL

Wall is not a bust and will be better than you forcast. Whether you want him to or not. We'll see. The only thing that he has really proven is that he needs work is with his jumpshot. Everything else, he is being underrated. LeBron, as great as he is, is still working on his game. I guess all these point guards are finished products. LOL

Not many have have called wall a bust but he needs much more work than just on his jumpshot. His ballhandling is average for a PG, he doesn't finish well in half court sets, he's often out of control and erratic. You saying the only thing he's shown he needs work on is a bit credulous.

[Brenice]

Thats not what I said. I said he has proven he needs to work on his jumpshot. And like everybody else, he needs to work on other areas of his game.

[Brenice]

Thats not what I said. I said he has proven he needs to work on his jumpshot. And like everybody else, he needs to work on other areas of his game.

[Johnny Firpo]

It better be if he wants to have a HOF career.

[Michael Jackson]

Calling Wall better than Rose is wrong soils calling Wall a bust.

[dangermouse]

The excuse Wall has is the lockout.

Maybe he should have been working on the flaws in his game, instead of running it up on lesser competition in Pro-Am games?

Way to quote one line and ignore the rest of nate's post

[Wharton Alum 08]

Thats not what I said. I said he has proven he needs to work on his jumpshot. And like everybody else, he needs to work on other areas of his game.

The thing is he needs more work than all of those of other guys mentioned because right now his the worst player from that group of Rose, Westbrook, Irving, Rondo. You say that the rest of us are underrating his game but it's pretty bad. On the surface it looks good but digging into advanced stats he's pretty bad.

[Brenice]

Advanced stats don't tell the spacing problem on the court you get when you play with players who can't shoot, can't play in sets, or post up. I said it before, Wall was not playing his proper role of pass first. He has smarter players around him now.BT

[hands11]

John Wall's being called a bust because he's not even a top 10 PG in the league and there was beyond too much hype over him.

Until he's one of the top 5 PG's in the league,

he is technically a bust (compare him to the other no. 1 picks, you'll see why)

2012 Anthony Davis <---- looks very promising but we don't know yet, was excellent on USA
2011 Kyrie Irving Cleveland Cavaliers <-------turned out to be awesome, already better than Wall
2010 John Wall Washington Wizards <-----------average starting PG in the league (so far)
2009 Blake Griffin Los Angeles Clippers <---------stud
2008 Derrick Rose Chicago Bulls University of Memphis <--------already has an MVP, lead team to 2 1 seeds and ECF
2007 Greg Oden Portland Trail Blazers <---------- played really well, but bust
2006 Andrea Bargnani Toronto Raptors <--------------------similar to Wall, good but underwhelming
2005 Andrew Bogut Milwaukee Bucks University of Utah <--------------top defender and center bar injury...
2004 Dwight Howard Orlando Magic <------------------best center in the league
2003 Lebron James Cleveland Cavs <-------------------hehehehe. Hehehe well hehe yeah.

Out of all of those 9 players (excluding the new Davis), the only players that haven't proven that they can play at the highest level is John Wall, Bargnani, and somewhat Oden.

When you're not a franchise player or at least an all-star as no. 1 pick, that's what you typically call a bust.

And I'm not one to care much about PER + EFF rankings (it's efficiency, but not the way to rank players).... but 18 in PG's is pretty pretty bad.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinge ... osition/pg

Anyway, judged on how they've played so far (not future, I do think Wall will improve), I would easily take

Derrick Rose
Deron Williams
Russell Westbrook
Chris Paul
Rajon Rondo
Tony Parker
Steve Nash
Kyrie Irving (was a rookie)
Stephen Curry
Jeremy Lin (so far)
Ty Lawson
Kyle Lowry
Brandon Jennings
Goran Dragic

over wall. That's 14 PG's. For a #1 pick, Wall's not playing well, at all. That's why people are calling him a bust.

See you after this year gets going. I think your ranking will look a lot difference. Wall will be right up there near Kyrie. Lets face it. The Wizards had been a mess after pushing the reset button just as Wall was walking in the door. Two years later, they have a much more stable professional roster. I compare him to a Rondo except Rondo came to a team with KG, PP and RA as the foundation to develop his game. Wall will be more then fine.

[Wharton Alum 08]

Advanced stats don't tell the spacing problem on the court you get when you play with players who can't shoot, can't play in sets, or post up. I said it before, Wall was not playing his proper role of pass first. He has smarter players around him now.BT

Wall isn't really as much as of a pass first PG as you think. And if you believe that with this new team his assists are going to rise and he becomes this John Stockton, Rajon Rondo type PG you're mistaken. He's closer to the mold of Westbrook and Rose. Your excuses for Wall are plentiful but you see no flaw in his game outside of his jumper that's scary.

[Brenice]

See you after this year gets going. I think your ranking will look a lot difference. Wall will be right up there near Kyrie. Lets face it. The Wizards had been a mess after pushing the reset button just as Wall was walking in the door. Two years later, they have a much more stable professional roster. I compare him to a Rondo except Rondo came to a team with KG, PP and RA as the foundation to develop his game. Wall will be more then fine.

Then pushed the reset button again a year later. They fail to acknowledge that the team was blown up in midseason, in both his rookie and 2nd years. And it wasn't because of Wall it was blown up, it was because of the players they were getting rid of.

[bledredwine]

See you after this year gets going. I think your ranking will look a lot difference. Wall will be right up there near Kyrie. Lets face it. The Wizards had been a mess after pushing the reset button just as Wall was walking in the door. Two years later, they have a much more stable professional roster. I compare him to a Rondo except Rondo came to a team with KG, PP and RA as the foundation to develop his game. Wall will be more then fine.

Absolutely 0% chance Wall will be on Kyrie's level this year.

Kyrie is a MUCH smarter player, has a much better touch, better handles, and of course his jumper compared to Wall's, well let's just leave it at that.

Wall's been underwhelming and I'll be thrilled if he even plays as well as Kyrie did his rookie season. Wall has the potential, but he has to earn any respect this year and made little improvement from his rookie season. So far, the hype has been nowhere near lived up to.

[dangermouse]

Advanced stats don't tell the spacing problem on the court you get when you play with players who can't shoot, can't play in sets, or post up. I said it before, Wall was not playing his proper role of pass first. He has smarter players around him now.BT

Wall isn't really as much as of a pass first PG as you think.

Why not? Provide reasoning.

I would classify any PG that puts up ~8 assists per game with a team of literal scrubs as "pass first". He is completely and utterly unselfish in his play.

[Wharton Alum 08]

Advanced stats don't tell the spacing problem on the court you get when you play with players who can't shoot, can't play in sets, or post up. I said it before, Wall was not playing his proper role of pass first. He has smarter players around him now.BT

Wall isn't really as much as of a pass first PG as you think.

Why not? Provide reasoning.

I would classify any PG that puts up ~8 assists per game with a team of literal scrubs as "pass first". He is completely and utterly unselfish in his play.

Allen Iverson averaged 7.9 assist per game in 04-05 on a team that didn't have a lot of talent. John Wall may be unselfish but he's not an elite passer and if you use APG is not the sole measure of a good PG.

[Brenice]

I don't think anybody said he was an elite passer. What he is is a pass first pg with enough of assists, that still needs to learn to run an offense, but will run the offense better Westbrook now, and a Rose soon, who can score, but not as well as them. On the other side, he will be a better scorer than the elite passers(except maybe a CP3), but not their level of passing(Nash, CP3, Rondo). Than their is the defensive side of it where he will be one of the best defending pgs.

Wall has a well rounded game, except the shooting.

[nate33]

Allen Iverson averaged 7.9 assist per game in 04-05 on a team that didn't have a lot of talent. John Wall may be unselfish but he's not an elite passer and if you use APG is not the sole measure of a good PG.

Is that the best counter argument you have? C'mon now.

That 7.9 assists was his career best in a 13-year career. He did it while playing 43 minutes a game and had Kyle Korver (third highest minutes played total on team) and Marc Jackson (decent offensive center having a career year) as teammates. On a per-36 basis, he averaged just 6.8 assists despite playing on the 2nd fastest paced team in the league. Adjusted for pace relative to Wall's Wizards, it would be 6.6 assists per 36 minutes.

Wall averaged 7.9 and 8.0 assists per 36 minutes in his first two seasons, blowing away Iverson's assist rate in Iverson's best passing year. Wall also averaged fewer turnovers per minute.

Comparing Wall's passing to Iverson is ridiculous.

[dobrojim]

Hard to say if this will be his breakout year. Could be next year, could be never.

Easy to say he mostly needs to fix his jumper. But if/when he fixes that, most of his
other flaws or below avg areas will fade into the background of brightness of the
rest of his game. Best case, he evolves into a cross between GPayton and AI.
Anybody that can average about 8 assists with the team he had has got at least some game.
Off the top of my head, I can't come up with worst case comparison not because
that isn't possible, just can't think of one, maybe because those kinds of players
are easily forgotten.

As a Wizards fan, my hope is that improved defense will lead to even more
fast break opportunities which will obviously pad his offense efficiency if only
incrementally. We understand this does need definite improvement.

Having better/smarter teammates and an actual offseason of working with
NBA level coaching should help.

BTW Wittman was mentioned somewhere in this thread as less than an
encouraging asset towards Wall's development. A year ago I would have
agreed completely. Now I'm not nearly so sure. Lets see how things are
going by around the AS break and into March for Wall and the Wizards.

One last comment - towards the end of the season Wittman had Wall initiate
the offense from WAY outside in the half court. Seemed a bit screwy but
it actually worked in that it took better advantage of Wall's best asset, speed
(as opposed to quickness). They used this briefly at the end of the season so
all the provisos re sample size and opposing talent need to be conceded. With
the floor spread with actual shooters, it worked reasonably well.

[SCourGe OF GoD]

There are some perfectly reasonable "excuses" for Wall's mediocre performance.

As a rookie, he was pretty much what everyone expected: a hyper-athlete with excellent pass-first instincts and a suspect outside shot who still had much to learn about running a team. He was thrust into a the role as primary option and team leader before he was ready and the end result was a productive but inefficient rookie year. I don't think anybody was disappointed in his rookie season. He showed flashes of greatness along with the typical mistakes expected of such a young, inexperienced player. He clearly wasn't a polished PG as a freshman in college, so everyone expected that it would take some time to develop him.

His second season was the disappointing year because he showed very little improvement over his rookie year other than becoming a better defender. The excuse Wall has is the lockout. He had no training camp, no opportunity to work with the coaches, and no experience in how to properly train for an NBA offseason. He spent his offseason traveling the country and playing in a lot of charity games, thinking the more he played, the better he would get. By all accounts, he is a hard worker and a dedicated professional, but that's not enough. You can't just practice hard, you have to practice smart. Without a proper coaching staff and training program, Wall merely reinforced his existing bad habits.

Now that Wall is having an off-season without a lockout so he can communicate with his coaching staff, I expect to see significant improvement in his fundamentals. I consider last year a "lost season" which should be written off. I think of this coming season his second year. If he doesn't show significant improvement this year, then I'll be worried that he is a bust. But for now, I think his relative lack of improvement last year is understandable.

...This is the problem. Usually you start with the fundamentals as the foundation then you pick up the little idiosyncracies of the game like high screen pick n roll, backdoor reads, etc..and pad that on to ur already natural athleticism. Players that come in without great fundementals dont usually all of the sudden develop them. Jason Kidd didnt decide in year 3 ok im gonna actually learn the fundementals of the game now...you know what im saying?

[dobrojim]

I dunno

wouldn't you say MJ came in as a great athlete with less than stellar
fundamentals (which did get much better throughout his career)?