Gordon Hayward's Worth?

[boateng]

I've never been more happy about Steph Curry's 4 year $44 million extension.

In what way?
If it's the way I'm thinking then it's true. He's criminally underpaid.
I know his injury record isn't too great, but neither was Gordon's and he got a max deal.
I'm surprised curry didn't push for a max deal

[kodo]

Hayward is 6'9". .

The guy measured out at 6' 6.75". That shouldn't determine his worth as a player or his contract, but height exaggeration of players is just a pet peeve of mine (sorry).

If Hayward is 6' 6" then Al Jefferson must be really short for a center.

[cjs55]

7-8 million over 4 years at most.
Guy doesn't do anything great. He's a poor man's Jeff Green without the length, size or athleticism- I question whether he can defend the better players at his position in the league like Green can either.
Poor mans Jeff Green so he shouldn't make as much. If people say Green is a bargain at 9 million a year then Hayward is fair at 8 million a year.

Nah. Hayward is a better player than Green. The only things Green does better than Hayward are dunk and rebound.

Hayward: PER 17.3 Opp. PER 12.0
Green: PER 15.5 Opp. PER 12.7

[Blame Rasho]

Green is an epic fail of a rebounder... He might be the worst rebounder in the NBA...

[Blame Rasho]

7-8 million over 4 years at most.
Guy doesn't do anything great. He's a poor man's Jeff Green without the length, size or athleticism- I question whether he can defend the better players at his position in the league like Green can either.
Poor mans Jeff Green so he shouldn't make as much. If people say Green is a bargain at 9 million a year then Hayward is fair at 8 million a year.

Nah. Hayward is a better player than Green. The only things Green does better than Hayward are dunk and rebound.

Hayward: PER 17.3 Opp. PER 12.0
Green: PER 15.5 Opp. PER 12.7

Here is a better comparison.... get all the swing players in the NBA... where would you honestly rank him? I don't think he would measure out pretty good compared to his peers. In fact I think he would measure pretty avg. The thing is that alot of players are overpaid. I mentioned Batum earilier... and despite what some homers think of Batum... Hayward is a player of his ilk. They aren't special, they are middle of the road players for their positions.

[cjs55]

I wouldn't say he's average compared to his peers. The 2 guard position has the least depth in the NBA. . Seriously, who is better than Hayward at the 2 right now? Harden, Kobe, Wade, obviously? Who else? Manu if he gets back to his old self, Eric Gordon if he's healthy. I'd say that's it. Hayward's value has to go up because of how weak SG is right now in the NBA.

Also, I think Hayward can still get better. Hayward's real value will be proven this season, since he will be a #1/2 option for the Jazz this year. I think the reason his agent is looking for so much is because there's a good chance Hayward will score 20 ppg this year.

[Blame Rasho]

Yeah he is... you want to just pigonhole him as a 2? Um... ok...

Just a quick rundown of young swing players off the top of my head...

Harris
Leonard
Batum
Butler
MKG
Gallinari
Parsons
Derozen

Where would he rank? It isn't going to be at the top... and I have not even added the top shelf guys or established guys.

Personally I don't care where you rank him or but don' sell of the idea because he has a chance to score 20ppg on a likely lotto team means that he is worth whatever he is going to get. Like I said before... giving big contracts to players like him isn't likely going to be good for any team.

[cjs55]

He's definitely better as a 2. He's too weak to be a 3, but his length and surprising quickness give him a big advantage at the 2. You could play him as a 3, but I'd say he's less effective there.

And as far as all the players you listed, Hayward is better than all of them except for Leonard. Batum is about equal, and all the rest are worse. PER, Opp. PER, and on/off stats back this up. It's true that he's not significantly better than any of them, but he's still 2nd or 3rd on the list. Also, as far as established or top shelf guys, here's it at the 2: Harden, Kobe, George if he counts as a 2, Wade. Maybe Joe Johnson and Eric Gordon (although Hayward has more value than them due to age and injury history). Seriously, Hayward is probably around the 8th best SG in the league right now, and he has potential to improve. Although, that doesn't mean that Hayward is an amazing player as much as it shows how weak the position is.

Given his age, potential to improve, injury history (basically none), and the weakness of the position 4/44 is a fair value for him. Max is too much. 13 mil a year is too much. But 8 mil a year like some are suggesting is way too low.

[Litany]

Hayward to Boston to re-unite with Stevens, heard it here first.

If he goes there it means that Boston paid him 13+ and at that price, you can have him .


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[Blame Rasho]

He's definitely better as a 2. He's too weak to be a 3, but his length and surprising quickness give him a big advantage at the 2. You could play him as a 3, but I'd say he's less effective there.

And as far as all the players you listed, Hayward is better than all of them except for Leonard. Batum is about equal, and all the rest are worse. PER, Opp. PER, and on/off stats back this up. It's true that he's not significantly better than any of them, but he's still 2nd or 3rd on the list. Also, as far as established or top shelf guys, here's it at the 2: Harden, Kobe, George if he counts as a 2, Wade. Maybe Joe Johnson and Eric Gordon (although Hayward has more value than them due to age and injury history). Seriously, Hayward is probably around the 8th best SG in the league right now. It doesn't mean Hayward is an amazing player as much as it shows how weak the position is.

Given his age, potential to improve, injury history (basically none), and the weakness of the position 4/44 is a fair value for him. Max is too much. 13 mil a year is too much. But 8 mil a year like some are suggesting is way too low.

People have this circle jerk love fest with PER as if it is the end all and be all of a player. DeJuan Blair always had one of the best PERs for his position.... does that make him one of the best bigs in the NBA? No... Manu has had some shockingly high PERs year that were higher than players like Kobe and Wade at times during his career esp if you take into account PER Opp differential. It is also disingenuous to put any stock on on/off given who he is replacing. Matt Bonner was the Spurs leader in that stat one season.

[robbie84]

7-8 million over 4 years at most.
Guy doesn't do anything great. He's a poor man's Jeff Green without the length, size or athleticism- I question whether he can defend the better players at his position in the league like Green can either.
Poor mans Jeff Green so he shouldn't make as much. If people say Green is a bargain at 9 million a year then Hayward is fair at 8 million a year.

Nah. Hayward is a better player than Green. The only things Green does better than Hayward are dunk and rebound.

Hayward: PER 17.3 Opp. PER 12.0
Green: PER 15.5 Opp. PER 12.7

PER doesn't mean he's a better player lol.
I think more NBA GM's go with Green as their pick over Hayward.
Greens defensive impact and length are far superior.
Perhaps we should wait till after this season and they've both been full time starters. They're both on terrible teams probably both finishing bottom 8 in the league.

[robbie84]

And to the guy saying the Celtics would take Hayward as a free agent, they'd much rather spend the same if not a little more on Chandler Parsons.

[madatyou]

He's definitely better as a 2. He's too weak to be a 3, but his length and surprising quickness give him a big advantage at the 2. You could play him as a 3, but I'd say he's less effective there.

And as far as all the players you listed, Hayward is better than all of them except for Leonard. Batum is about equal, and all the rest are worse. PER, Opp. PER, and on/off stats back this up. It's true that he's not significantly better than any of them, but he's still 2nd or 3rd on the list. Also, as far as established or top shelf guys, here's it at the 2: Harden, Kobe, George if he counts as a 2, Wade. Maybe Joe Johnson and Eric Gordon (although Hayward has more value than them due to age and injury history). Seriously, Hayward is probably around the 8th best SG in the league right now. It doesn't mean Hayward is an amazing player as much as it shows how weak the position is.

Given his age, potential to improve, injury history (basically none), and the weakness of the position 4/44 is a fair value for him. Max is too much. 13 mil a year is too much. But 8 mil a year like some are suggesting is way too low.

People have this circle jerk love fest with PER as if it is the end all and be all of a player. DeJuan Blair always had one of the best PERs for his position.... does that make him one of the best bigs in the NBA? No... Manu has had some shockingly high PERs year that were higher than players like Kobe and Wade at times during his career esp if you take into account PER Opp differential. It is also disingenuous to put any stock on on/off given who he is replacing. Matt Bonner was the Spurs leader in that stat one season.

young players who show some promise after their rookie contract get paid. demar derozen after being way worse than gordon hayward got paid. batum got paid. gordon even with injuries got paid. its just the new cba. u can't afford to lose these players. overpaying a lil to keep is a necessity. you don't want them hitting the RFA market and some team maxing.

[xBulletproof]

Hayward should get as many touches as he wants, dude is a straight baller and great team guy. At his size and skill level, he' has legitimate 1st option potential. If Utah doesn't let him flex his muscles it will be a travesty.

Love the Jazz. Love Hayward.

Hayward will NEVER be a#1 option on a contender. 2nd at best, likely 3rd.

If Jazz pay more than 11 a year ill lose it.


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neither will paul george, look what he got

Paul George will never be the #1 option on a contender? Really?

He led the team in points and field goal attempts in the regular season, and he led the team in points and field goal attempts in the post season as well. Oh, and they were 1 win from the NBA Finals. Wouldn't that qualify as being a #1 option and being a contender?

Kinda late to the party, it already happened. Not to mention Paul looks MUCH improved in this preseason, again.

[Bruteque]

Hayward is 6'9". .

The guy measured out at 6' 6.75". That shouldn't determine his worth as a player or his contract, but height exaggeration of players is just a pet peeve of mine (sorry).

If Hayward is 6' 6" then Al Jefferson must be really short for a center.

Hayward is 6'6.75" barefoot and Al Jefferson is 6'8.5" barefoot, so Jefferson is only 1.75 inches taller and it looks about right in that picture. The thing is, though, when it comes to NBA length, standing reach tends to be the better measure, and Al Jefferson is 9'2" to Hayward's 8'7". That's a 7-inch difference. Paul George is only 1 inch taller barefoot at 6'7.75", but George's standing reach is 8'11". Hayward is not a long player.

Hayward doesn't have George's physical tools (and, by extension, George's ceiling). What Hayward has is a high skill level. While a high skill level is valuable, it's also generally considered something acquirable, unlike physical tools, so Hayward's market value isn't nearly as high as George's. No executive is going to look at what George has gotten and say, "So that's Hayward's ballpark because they have similar offensive production." Hayward doesn't have the physical tools to defend or rebound (or dominate offensively) at George's ceiling.

That said, players of Hayward's caliber are hard to ink in free agency, especially if your team is not an attractive FA destination, so I think $10 mil a year is a fair offer. If Hayward asked for more than that I would let him test the RFA market. I doubt another team is going to offer more than that for a player without exceptional physical tools for his position. Highly skilled and physically flawed two-way wings get paid in the $7 mil range; highly skilled and physically average two-way wings are worth a few more mils than that.

$7-8 mil isn't some kind of magical range for every very good not-quite-borderline-star. Those fall in a wider-than-$1-mil-a-year range. A very good two-way not-quite-borderline-star doesn't have to become a borderline star to be worth $10 mil a year. That follows naturally from the fact that signing a borderline star for $10 mil a year is a very good deal. Also, raising your PPG from 17.5 to 20 doesn't magically turn you into a borderline star (and thereby magically raise your worth from $7-8 mil a year to $12-16 mil a year by the distinction).

[Novocaine]

Yeah he is... you want to just pigonhole him as a 2? Um... ok...

Just a quick rundown of young swing players off the top of my head...

Harris
Leonard
Batum
Butler
MKG
Gallinari
Parsons
Derozen

Where would he rank? It isn't going to be at the top... and I have not even added the top shelf guys or established guys.

Personally I don't care where you rank him or but don' sell of the idea because he has a chance to score 20ppg on a likely lotto team means that he is worth whatever he is going to get. Like I said before... giving big contracts to players like him isn't likely going to be good for any team.

About 3rd right now, but he's the best of the bunch with Gallinari when it comes to shot-creation with the ball on his hands.

It really depends on the type of team. Those players are all quality young wings, but they're quite different from each other. A versatile offensive player with good defense like Hayward will always be more valuable than elite wing defenders with good 3 point shots like Buttler. They're rarer. For some teams, a player of the later type is arguable more valuable, but not for most.

And as for you thinking "that alot of players are overpaid", that simply suggests they aren't. As long as there is a maximum contract, a rookie scale and all the exceptions that can be used in the low-level role-players, money will have to go somewhere - and it goes to these guys.

What Hayward has is a high skill level. While a high skill level is valuable, it's also generally considered something acquirable,

That's a bit simplistic though. Even if "skills" are more acquirable than athleticism, it's not like Hayward's skill level has plateaued. George might have a high margin of growth skills-wise, but that's' far from implying he's progress more in that area than Hayward (although I agree that in this specific case, George is the better player and the one with the higher potential - but that's why he got a max contract).

[abark]

I don't listen to Matt Harpring. I just watch most the games. Hayward is a unique player. He can get 7 or 8 assists to go with 15+ pts. Not bad for a wing player.

His career average is 3.4 assists per 36 minutes. His career rebounding numbers aren't great either. He's not sniffing a triple double any time soon.

In his first pre-season game, he had 8 assists and 7 rebounds in 26 minutes. He sat out most of the 4th quarter because it was a blow-out. That's a sniff right there. He had another game with 7 assists while scoring 20 points. He's going to play heavy minutes and have the ball in his hands a lot. "Any given night" means he can do it, not that he'll average a triple-double.

he put up 3.5 assists and boards per36 last year. He needs to triple his normal output on both to get a triple double. If that's the line for a triple double threat then most teams have 2 or 3 of them. Most point guards can pull down 3 boards, making almost all of them bigger triple double threats than hayward.

[165bows]

Hayward to Boston to re-unite with Stevens, heard it here first.

Yeah, I'd be all about that, especially if it was on the FA market and not giving up a ransom in trade. Can only hope he'd sign a one year qualifying offer and then hit the market when the C's may have cap space. I think he's being considerably undervalued on this thread.

Last year was only his age 22 year and he didn't play a ton of minutes which depresses his stat totals. Per minute he outscored George on a higher efficiency, and got to the line more. George is obviously better rebounder, defender, etc. But Hayward's not going to be eligible for the type of salary George will likely get via the Rose rule. 17/3.8/3.6 per 36 on 56%TS at 22 years old? I'd happily pay 12M+ for that going forward, and likely his agent knows at least one GM will as well.

[abark]

It's ridiculous to compare Haywards raw stats to George's like it means anything. Besides the fact the George's numbers are much better anyway, he is the best perimeter defender in the league by any metric you want to use. I don't care that Hayward is above average on d, he is far enough from the elite level George is on to make a simple numbers comparison meaningless.

[Tave]

George is a better defender and will likely remain so but Hayward isn't far off. The Pacers put a good defensive system and roster in place for George. Utah had Hayward out there with Mo Williams and Al Jefferson, and Milsap hanging on for dear life trying to guard, out of position, both his and Jefferson's man.