Embiid's ceiling: Hakeem or Shaq level.

[InfraRedshaw]

Who's the last player to miss two whole consecutive seasons at any in his career and be good? It's even worse for a young player still developing than an old veteran.

David Robinson. prior to that, Roger Staubach.

They were not hurt

still wasn't playing ball.
your initial question didnt mention injury just time away from the game

[Hindenburg]

I watched him in college. Big fan of Wiggins so I saw Embiid's every game too. His biggest flaw was him struggling against bigger NBA type big men. He would get almost shut down by guys 6'10 and bigger. Why are there no videos of Embiid posting up guys like Noel or Okafor? It's always some 5'10 trainer he is going up against.

[adarsh1]

Huge fan of his, but like....THE DUDE HASN'T STEPPED ON THE COURT YET!?

How does this thread happen..

[JayMKE]

Greg Oden until he proves otherwise

[mksp]

This thread, along with about 150 other Sixers/Tanking-related threads, are going to be a lot of fun to bump at some point. Keep 'em coming.

[Duke4life831]

Physically he has all the tools. But this is not a guy that dominated college ball, he averaged 11 and 8 with his best game being 16 and 13 and his career high in points was 18. Before the injuries it was still not a guarantee that he was going to come close to his ceiling. He was a very raw prospect to begin with. So for all those that are saying if he stays healthy hes a lock to be in the HOF is ridiculous. We have seen plenty of guys with great physical tools that never came close to reaching their potential. Then you add hes a big man with injury history to his feet and back, probably the two worst places to have injury history for a big man. You also add in even Philly came out questioning his maturity and work ethic only like a year ago. You add all these things up and even if he stays healthy from here on out there is not guarantee he turns out any good and add in the injury history you really have no clue. No one has any clue since no one has seen him play competitive ball in close to 2 and a half years. But I can safely say his ceiling is no way Shaq or Hakeem now

Hakeem Olajuwon's freshman year he averaged 8 and 6. Hakeem's per 40 was 18 and 13.5.

Joel Embiid's freshman year he averaged 11 and 8. Embiid's per 40 was 19 and 14.

Pretty comparable I'd say.

Okay cool. Ill say what I said plenty of times in my post, he is very raw. I have said he has a really high ceiling but how often do we see a guy max out his potential. It doesnt happen to often, more times than not we usually say, damn that guy wasted his potential. Yes as freshman they put up similar stats but Hakeem had a legendary work ethic. Embiid has had his work ethic questioned by his own coaching staff publicly and has major injury questions. Many 6er fans act like if Embiid can just stay healthy he is a lock for the HOF. He is very raw and has some major question marks. You need to hope he can stay healthy and then hope he goes from a very raw prospect to a finished product, again that doesnt happen to often. The whole Hakeem was raw as a freshman and he did it so Embiid will do it is a very flawed mindset.

Also how many big men have come back the same after foot or back problems? I cant think of one big man. The back injury itself is scary, we have yet to see him play since his back issues. But chronic foot problems in big men has almost been a death sentence for an NBA big man so far. Embiid was a very raw prospect back when he was 19, the problem is he hasnt played a meaningful minute of basketball since he was 19 and he is now 22. Those are very very important years for a raw prospect. The dude just has way to many question marks to even think about putting his name next to Shaq or Hakeem still. I thought it was far fetched when he was 19 but I got it, now its just unreasonable

[vxmike]

David Robinson. prior to that, Roger Staubach.

They were not hurt

still wasn't playing ball.
your initial question didnt mention injury just time away from the game

I thought injury would be assumed from the context of the thread.

Jordan missed almost two full seasons not due to injury and was still good. Injury is an entitely different matter esp a foot injury to a 270# center. There is zero precedent in NBA history for Embiid to become a top player with his parameters.

[Snotbubbles]

Physically he has all the tools. But this is not a guy that dominated college ball, he averaged 11 and 8 with his best game being 16 and 13 and his career high in points was 18. Before the injuries it was still not a guarantee that he was going to come close to his ceiling. He was a very raw prospect to begin with. So for all those that are saying if he stays healthy hes a lock to be in the HOF is ridiculous. We have seen plenty of guys with great physical tools that never came close to reaching their potential. Then you add hes a big man with injury history to his feet and back, probably the two worst places to have injury history for a big man. You also add in even Philly came out questioning his maturity and work ethic only like a year ago. You add all these things up and even if he stays healthy from here on out there is not guarantee he turns out any good and add in the injury history you really have no clue. No one has any clue since no one has seen him play competitive ball in close to 2 and a half years. But I can safely say his ceiling is no way Shaq or Hakeem now

Hakeem Olajuwon's freshman year he averaged 8 and 6. Hakeem's per 40 was 18 and 13.5.

Joel Embiid's freshman year he averaged 11 and 8. Embiid's per 40 was 19 and 14.

Pretty comparable I'd say.

Okay cool. Ill say what I said plenty of times in my post, he is very raw. I have said he has a really high ceiling but how often do we see a guy max out his potential. It doesnt happen to often, more times than not we usually say, damn that guy wasted his potential. Yes as freshman they put up similar stats but Hakeem had a legendary work ethic. Embiid has had his work ethic questioned by his own coaching staff publicly and has major injury questions. Many 6er fans act like if Embiid can just stay healthy he is a lock for the HOF. He is very raw and has some major question marks. You need to hope he can stay healthy and then hope he goes from a very raw prospect to a finished product, again that doesnt happen to often. The whole Hakeem was raw as a freshman and he did it so Embiid will do it is a very flawed mindset.

Also how many big men have come back the same after foot or back problems? I cant think of one big man. The back injury itself is scary, we have yet to see him play since his back issues. But chronic foot problems in big men has almost been a death sentence for an NBA big man so far. Embiid was a very raw prospect back when he was 19, the problem is he hasnt played a meaningful minute of basketball since he was 19 and he is now 22. Those are very very important years for a raw prospect. The dude just has way to many question marks to even think about putting his name next to Shaq or Hakeem still. I thought it was far fetched when he was 19 but I got it, now its just unreasonable

The word "raw" cannot be found in my post. What I find flawed is the argument that because Player X only averages such and such in college that his ceiling shouldn't be mentioned with the likes of HOF players (who by the way averaged less at the same age). You act like he's been sitting on his couch playing video games the last two years.

Also, as far as big men go, Kevin McHale broke his navicular bone in March 1987, had offseason surgery and came back the next season and averaged the second most minutes of his career and then missed 4 games over the next two seasons. He averaged 20+ pts per game over each of those three seasons, something he only did 5 times in his 13 year career. Ilgauskas is another big who broke his foot and had a good career. But, even if there are 0 players who have done it in the past, it's pretty irrelevant since medicine advances at such a rapid pace. 30 years ago, torn ACLs were career enders; 10 years later it took 18 months of post-ACL surgery rehab to return to 100%; now guys come back in 7-9 months. I have no idea, how far advancements have come to navicular bone breaks.

[MaxRider]

What!? Comparing Embiid to Hakeem and Shaq?
How about staying healthy for one season first?
Right now his career is worse than Oden

[Duke4life831]

Hakeem Olajuwon's freshman year he averaged 8 and 6. Hakeem's per 40 was 18 and 13.5.

Joel Embiid's freshman year he averaged 11 and 8. Embiid's per 40 was 19 and 14.

Pretty comparable I'd say.

Okay cool. Ill say what I said plenty of times in my post, he is very raw. I have said he has a really high ceiling but how often do we see a guy max out his potential. It doesnt happen to often, more times than not we usually say, damn that guy wasted his potential. Yes as freshman they put up similar stats but Hakeem had a legendary work ethic. Embiid has had his work ethic questioned by his own coaching staff publicly and has major injury questions. Many 6er fans act like if Embiid can just stay healthy he is a lock for the HOF. He is very raw and has some major question marks. You need to hope he can stay healthy and then hope he goes from a very raw prospect to a finished product, again that doesnt happen to often. The whole Hakeem was raw as a freshman and he did it so Embiid will do it is a very flawed mindset.

Also how many big men have come back the same after foot or back problems? I cant think of one big man. The back injury itself is scary, we have yet to see him play since his back issues. But chronic foot problems in big men has almost been a death sentence for an NBA big man so far. Embiid was a very raw prospect back when he was 19, the problem is he hasnt played a meaningful minute of basketball since he was 19 and he is now 22. Those are very very important years for a raw prospect. The dude just has way to many question marks to even think about putting his name next to Shaq or Hakeem still. I thought it was far fetched when he was 19 but I got it, now its just unreasonable

The word "raw" cannot be found in my post. What I find flawed is the argument that because Player X only averages such and such in college that his ceiling shouldn't be mentioned with the likes of HOF players (who by the way averaged less at the same age). You act like he's been sitting on his couch playing video games the last two years.

Also, as far as big men go, Kevin McHale broke his navicular bone in March 1987, had offseason surgery and came back the next season and averaged the second most minutes of his career and then missed 4 games over the next two seasons. He averaged 20+ pts per game over each of those three seasons, something he only did 5 times in his 13 year career. Ilgauskas is another big who broke his foot and had a good career. But, even if there are 0 players who have done it in the past, it's pretty irrelevant since medicine advances at such a rapid pace. 30 years ago, torn ACLs were career enders; 10 years later it took 18 months of post-ACL surgery rehab to return to 100%; now guys come back in 7-9 months. I have no idea, how far advancements have come to navicular bone breaks.

Ya i know you didnt say raw, I said it plenty of times because that is what Embiid was and is, RAW. And when I brought up his averages it was to just back up that he is a raw prospect, he didnt dominate in college. Again his best game was 16 and 13 and his career high in points was 18. Hakeem was also a raw prospect, but just because Hakeem was able to go from a raw prospect as a freshman to an all time great doesnt mean that Embiid is going to follow that same path. There are many Embiid/6er fans that basically say "watch out, if Embiid stays healthy hes the next Hakeem." Ive also seen some say hes a bigger and more athletic version of Hakeem and if he stays healthy he is going to end up better. I think many non 6ers/Embiid fans kinda laugh at this because it seems like many people are forgetting just how raw Embiid is and how far from a finished product he is. So this notion if he can just stay healthy he is HOF bound is nuts. Again we have seen plenty of guys with all the physical potential become nothing.

And you bring up Mchale, he only ended up missing a month of the regular season after having the surgery in March. Embiid has missed 2 full years. I would consider Embiid's case to be more severe or chronic, its a little different of a scenario. Also that injury definitely affected Mchales career, he has talked about it many times, he said it was his "torture chamber" and he could only put up with it a few more years and thats when you saw his role and production diminish after that.

[Snotbubbles]

Okay cool. Ill say what I said plenty of times in my post, he is very raw. I have said he has a really high ceiling but how often do we see a guy max out his potential. It doesnt happen to often, more times than not we usually say, damn that guy wasted his potential. Yes as freshman they put up similar stats but Hakeem had a legendary work ethic. Embiid has had his work ethic questioned by his own coaching staff publicly and has major injury questions. Many 6er fans act like if Embiid can just stay healthy he is a lock for the HOF. He is very raw and has some major question marks. You need to hope he can stay healthy and then hope he goes from a very raw prospect to a finished product, again that doesnt happen to often. The whole Hakeem was raw as a freshman and he did it so Embiid will do it is a very flawed mindset.

Also how many big men have come back the same after foot or back problems? I cant think of one big man. The back injury itself is scary, we have yet to see him play since his back issues. But chronic foot problems in big men has almost been a death sentence for an NBA big man so far. Embiid was a very raw prospect back when he was 19, the problem is he hasnt played a meaningful minute of basketball since he was 19 and he is now 22. Those are very very important years for a raw prospect. The dude just has way to many question marks to even think about putting his name next to Shaq or Hakeem still. I thought it was far fetched when he was 19 but I got it, now its just unreasonable

The word "raw" cannot be found in my post. What I find flawed is the argument that because Player X only averages such and such in college that his ceiling shouldn't be mentioned with the likes of HOF players (who by the way averaged less at the same age). You act like he's been sitting on his couch playing video games the last two years.

Also, as far as big men go, Kevin McHale broke his navicular bone in March 1987, had offseason surgery and came back the next season and averaged the second most minutes of his career and then missed 4 games over the next two seasons. He averaged 20+ pts per game over each of those three seasons, something he only did 5 times in his 13 year career. Ilgauskas is another big who broke his foot and had a good career. But, even if there are 0 players who have done it in the past, it's pretty irrelevant since medicine advances at such a rapid pace. 30 years ago, torn ACLs were career enders; 10 years later it took 18 months of post-ACL surgery rehab to return to 100%; now guys come back in 7-9 months. I have no idea, how far advancements have come to navicular bone breaks.

Ya i know you didnt say raw, I said it plenty of times because that is what Embiid was and is, RAW. And when I brought up his averages it was to just back up that he is a raw prospect, he didnt dominate in college. Again his best game was 16 and 13 and his career high in points was 18. Hakeem was also a raw prospect, but just because Hakeem was able to go from a raw prospect as a freshman to an all time great doesnt mean that Embiid is going to follow that same path. There are many Embiid/6er fans that basically say "watch out, if Embiid stays healthy hes the next Hakeem." Ive also seen some say hes a bigger and more athletic version of Hakeem and if he stays healthy he is going to end up better. I think many non 6ers/Embiid fans kinda laugh at this because it seems like many people are forgetting just how raw Embiid is and how far from a finished product he is. So this notion if he can just stay healthy he is HOF bound is nuts. Again we have seen plenty of guys with all the physical potential become nothing.

And you bring up Mchale, he only ended up missing a month of the regular season after having the surgery in March. Embiid has missed 2 full years. I would consider Embiid's case to be more severe or chronic, its a little different of a scenario. Also that injury definitely affected Mchales career, he has talked about it many times, he said it was his "torture chamber" and he could only put up with it a few more years and thats when you saw his role and production diminish after that.

1. This is a thread about Embiid's ceiling. If Embiid showed the same skillset and athletic characteristics as Olajuwon did at the same age and Olajuwon developed into a HOF player, then it stands to reason that Embiid COULD also develop into a HOF player due to the type of skill and athleticism he has for a person his size. I don't think any reasonable person says Embiid has a 100% chance of becoming the next Olajuwon. Simply, if Embiid can stay healthy, he has all the physical attributes and abilities to develop into the next Olajwon. So saying his ceiling, that's if everything goes right for the guy, is Olajuwon shouldn't be considered some unreasonable statement.

2. On to McHale. He retired because of his multiple ankle injuries, not his foot. His "torture chamber" wasn't a reference to his injuries, it was a reference to when he would get you on the blocks down low. Dude had these long freakish arms and would do virtually unstoppable spin moves around players. He would torture the opposition.

[eskimo]

I watched him in college. Big fan of Wiggins so I saw Embiid's every game too. His biggest flaw was him struggling against bigger NBA type big men. He would get almost shut down by guys 6'10 and bigger. Why are there no videos of Embiid posting up guys like Noel or Okafor? It's always some 5'10 trainer he is going up against.

Have you seen pictures of him from 2011? The guy was a twig.

So he enters college ball after massive changes in his body but he still didn't have the functional strength of someone who had a more normal course of body development. He also was very green having only played for 3 years before playing at Kansas as a Freshman.

Since then he has probably put on about 40-50 pounds and has grown 2 inches. Whereas before he was competing against guys stronger than him he'll now only rarely play against guys who are as strong as he is. The first day he steps on the NBA court he will be a physical mismatch for everyone who tries to guard him either on the basis of size, strength, length or athleticism and very commonly in all 4 domains.

As for questions about the video out there of him, I think it is just teasers to keep us interested. He is playing 5-on-5 on the side but behind closed doors for now. I don't think it is to gain some upperhand against other teams in a trade if that's what you're insinuating. There is very little intention of trading him. Embiid is what the process has been about - long time frame, high upside. The fans would mutiny if he were traded at this point.

[nfmos]

Wait. Did someone just compare this kid to Kareem? Wow. Just wow.




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[Frank Dux]

Until he proves otherwise, he's a post injury Bynum/Oden type player, which is absolutely nothing.

His situation sucks, but you cant compare a guy who hasn't played in 2 years to GOAT level centers.

[Young_Buc]

Embiid USED to have a Hakeem level ceiling when he was drafted.
I think reports are that he's grown 3 inches or so since and Im guessing his house would have to be re-modeled.
So yeah Shaq level ceiling is probably more appropriate.

[jbent87]

everyone, Sixers fans included are tired of these threads. We're at the point now where we need to just wait a few more months. Then we can analyze actual film, and stop projecting/hoping/bashing w this guy.

[JB2]

Coming out of college, Embiid was thought to have a higher ceiling that KAT when he came out.... and more of a true center (though Towns has quickly blown everyone out of the water). He's upside was insane and much higher than either Wiggins or Parker. Injury concerns derailed him and health has kept him from showing anything. Still, Philly made the right choice. Exum has looked okay but then missed a year. Smart is decent at best. Gordon is nice but nothing to lose sleep over. Randle is a unique beast with major holes that also missed a year.

But still, 2 years is a long long time. To compare him to 2 top centers of all time is silly until he can actually prove he can stay healthy for a full season or 2.

But yes, health aside, his upside was enormous.

[tacos]

He does have all the physical tools... Walker, wheelchair,crutches, cane, hoveround probably

But with those long arms he has a lot of potential as a wheelchair basketball player

[eskimo]

Until he proves otherwise, he's a post injury Bynum/Oden type player, which is absolutely nothing.

Your analogy only makes sense for those who don't understand medicine or the nature of his injury.

He had a stress fracture which is inherently non-degenerative. The degenerative portion of navicular injuries occurs either through death of bone from less of blood supply (avascular necrosis) or displacement of the bone with alteration of the bony anatomy which also did not happen.

Whether he ends up having other injury issues only time will tell but his injury has fully healed which is distinctly different from those two guys.

[treefi]

David Robinson. prior to that, Roger Staubach.

They were not hurt

still wasn't playing ball.
your initial question didnt mention injury just time away from the game

Matt Stafford.