2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread

[Ballerhogger]

1. Westbrook
2. Kawhi
3. Melo

These are my top 3. Some of the best players from some of the best teams. Lebron has won many so he won't get the votes even if he deserved them. GS has too many candidates.

Melo seriously. .....

[soda]

There are three aspects of being an MVP:

1) stats - you have to have gaudy numbers, and, in this day and age, counting stats aren't the only ones accepted, advanced stats have been far more acceptable in recent years.

2) your team has to win - historically, its tough to make an MVP case if your team doesn't finish with a top two seed in the conference.

3) public perception has to be on your side - a big reason Curry was unanimous last year is that we're living in the era of vine, when great individual plays can instantly be shared all over the world. Being the king of vine really helped Curry last year. Similarly, I think Westbrook will blow up vine this year, just like he did without Durant two years ago, and Westbrook has a big "narrative" edge.

My top three for MVP:

1) Lebron - no brainer, no doubt about it. He beat the warriors in the finals, that makes him King David who slew Goliath. He brought a trophy to Cleveland, that makes him Jesus, since he performed a miracle that would make even the son of God say "couldn't I try something easier? Like bringing a guy back from the dead?" (I kid, of course). His stats will be gaudy this year, he has the media narrative wind at his back, he's the unquestioned King of his city, and his team will finish with the top record in the east. There is the gaudy differential for the Cavs when Lebron is on the court versus when he isn't. All the ingredients are there for Lebron to win his fifth MVP. Other players have a lot of the needed elements, only Lebron has them all. There isn't really a good second place finisher, its King James' trophy to lose this year, I think.

2) Curry - don't underestimate, or undersell, the reigning two time winner of the award. The warriors should finish first in the west, and Curry should put up gaudy stats, although I expect everyone to finish a distant second to Lebron.

3) Paul George - I think George will carry the pacers to a top four finish in the east. He'll have the stats, and the highlights, what will keep him out of the top of the MVP ladder is that I think Cleveland and Boston will take the top two spots in the east.

Other candidates:

Leonard - Love his game, but he's not enough of an alpha scorer to win MVP. He's the best defensive player in the game, which is why he gets defensive player of the year, but he doesn't have the juice as a scorer to be an MVP level player. He's one of the five best, most valuable players in the game, I think, but MVP is an offensive award.

Westbrook - he'll have the stats, the highlights and the narrative, but MVPs don't come from teams that don't finish at the top of the conference.

Lilliard - I think he'll get more votes that Westbrook, because I think the Blazers will win the division over the Thunder. He'll have insane highlights and good media coverage too, and he'll hit it with vines showing him taking "Golden State warriors range threes" (from four and five feet behind the line, and hitting them)

James Harden - Curry proved you don't have to be great on defense to be MVP (that is, you don't have to be an elite two-way player) but Curry is at worst average on defense, and at best a little above average. If Harden puts a defensive effort up like he did two years ago, when he was average, the Rockets will win some games and he'll be in the conversation, if he plays abysmal defense, like last year, he might not make the AS team. The thing about MVP defense: the vines matter. You don't need to be great, but you have to be good enough to not create a dozen very embarrassing vines show-casing how badly you got beat. Those highlights enhance the narrative that you don't play defense, and media types don't vote for those players. The Rockets will have a lot of 130-125 games this year: they added legit three point shooting, and they'll score a ton of points, but they're worse on defense than they were a year ago, and they'll give up as good as they get. I don't see enough wins to be in the MVP conversation.

Kevin Durant - he'll take votes away from Curry, and I don't think Curry may even finish as high as two (Lebron's candidacy is airtight). That's alright, Curry and Durant teamed up to win titles, not MVPs.

[Spens1]

1. Westbrook (he's going to be a man posessed)
2. Lebron (when is this man not included)
3. Harden (i think he's going to be doing everything this season and its going to make him look good, very very good)

[ChilledAlex]

Harden or Westbrook.

I'd say Harden because he is more efficient.


I don't see anyone else except maybe Lebron, but seeing how cautios he was during regular season last year I think its unlikely.

[BallerTalk]

Harden would win 50 games every year with the cavs roster playing in the east

The funny thing is Harden's Rockets HAVE averaged 50+ wins the past three seasons in the tougher West, and that's including last season's disappointing record.
Lightweight fans continue to underestimate how stellar he has been since he touched down in Houston.

[Rastas]

Lebron
Harden
Goerge

[Pennebaker]

I don't think Lebron is going to be in the conversation.

That's absurd. Cleveland is going to be the top team in the East and it's going to be due mostly to LeBron regardless of how many minutes he plays. He will always be in the conversation. I can't imagine a season where he's not going to be in the MVP conversation. Maybe when he's 40.

[Prez]

Houston has looked really solid in preseason and they have a perfectly built roster, schemes, and coaching staff for Harden to not only put up monster stats but also lead them to wins. They're not a contender, but they're built to rack up regular season wins imo, and I wouldn't put it past them to win 50+. If Houston is a top 3 team in the West I got Harden winning MVP.

[Dr Spaceman]

Curry/Durant are out. There's next to no shot for either unless Golden State wins over 73 at this point.

Not to single you out because a lot of people have said this, but there's a serious disconnect here between how people say they will vote and how people actually vote. All that really matters is that Golden State amazes with either their style or efficacy, whatever amaze means in this context, and they will get votes.

[bondom34]

Curry/Durant are out. There's next to no shot for either unless Golden State wins over 73 at this point.

Not to single you out because a lot of people have said this, but there's a serious disconnect here between how people say they will vote and how people actually vote. All that really matters is that Golden State amazes with either their style or efficacy, whatever amaze means in this context, and they will get votes.

I've said it earlier itt, but unless they surpass last year's RS, they simply won't. I'd bet anything on it, as a media story is what is needed. Neither of these 2 have any narrative unless they win 74 plus.

[Superbasketball]

I think Lebron could win MVP not doing anything more. If Cavs are dominant and win 65+ games Lebron will be in the running. If OKC doesn't do that well Lebron could still get the MVP over Westbrook. Also I think writers might vote for Lebron as a career award and to recognize his greatness especially after his finals performance.

[tsherkin]

Curry/Durant are out. There's next to no shot for either unless Golden State wins over 73 at this point.

Not to single you out because a lot of people have said this, but there's a serious disconnect here between how people say they will vote and how people actually vote. All that really matters is that Golden State amazes with either their style or efficacy, whatever amaze means in this context, and they will get votes.

Yes, but when a large chunk of people have picked some foolish reason to hate on a player, that player isn't likely to get the vote. Lebron was basically a 27/8/7 player on the All-Defensive 1st Team in 2011 and they gave the MVP to Derrick Rose, of all people, because of voter fatigue (he'd won the two previous MVPs) and because of The Decision. With the entire league and peripheral staff kvetching and whining about how Durant joined the Warriors, the odds that either he or Steph will actually win are pretty low based on voting patterns from across the years.

Last year, Lebron was a 25/7/7 player again (roughly) and has just led his hometown team to consecutive Finals appearances and what was basically a redemption title for the Cavs. If he does anything like that again, odds are strong he'll be in the top 2. If the Spurs perform really well with that bolstered frontcourt (and if Manu/Parker nut up), then we'll see a strong showing in the vote for Kawhi, most likely, and of course Westbrook is going to be there stuffing the stat sheet and making a case for himself.

But Lebron is still kind of The Guy right now, for sure. Perhaps things will change over the course of the regular season, but based on the preseason narrative and the odds that the Warriors will backslide relative to their performance last year, I don't really see how Steph or KD will be really in the vote.

[Superbasketball]

I think there is a reason Lebron was voted by GMs as the favorite to win MVP. There is preference to giving the MVP to Lebron imo. If it is close Lebron wins it.

[Mich3006]

Houston has looked really solid in preseason and they have a perfectly built roster, schemes, and coaching staff for Harden to not only put up monster stats but also lead them to wins. They're not a contender, but they're built to rack up regular season wins imo, and I wouldn't put it past them to win 50+. If Houston is a top 3 team in the West I got Harden winning MVP.

I love the Rockets but this won´t happen. Doubt they´ll make the playoffs to be honest

[dautjazz]

I think there is a reason Lebron was voted by GMs as the favorite to win MVP. There is preference to giving the MVP to Lebron imo. If it is close Lebron wins it.

Preference? I mean he"s the best player and just won the title, he should be a favorite.

Sent from my phone which is better than yours!

[Ballerhogger]

Kawhi as very early front runner.

[Pattycakes]

Lol at anyone thinking Rockets will be good enough for Harden to sniff winning this award. I've got 1) Lebron 2) Westbrook 3) Lillard/Kawhi 4) Curry/Harden/Davis

[Goon]

Kawhi or LeBron for me.

Curry and KD may take eachother out, although if KD continues like this... Westbrook won't have enough wins, same goes for Harden, and AD won't even make the playoffs so he's also easily eliminated. Don't see anyone else coming into consideration. Honorable mention - Lillard.

[damecurry]

It's really interesting that this is discussed as a wide open race but when you really break it down I think there's a clear and obvious frontrunner: Kawhi Leonard. Russ and Harden will absolutely put up the stats to deserve it but based on their team's play so far I really doubt either team nears 50 wins and they would have to have absolutely historic stats to win MVP on a 40s wins team. Kawhi clearly has full reign to do his thing and is the only real candidate on a top 5 team. Lebron just won't play or push hard enough there's absolutely no reason to risk his health as a 31 year old with an insane amount of miles on him when they don't care about RS wins at all, Curry/Durant aren't doing it don't make me spell out why and the celts/raps don't have anyone who will approach it, can't see lowry being better than last year and he wasn't even close then. The ONLY other legitimate candidate I see right now is CP3, if the clips win about the same as the spurs and CP3 has one of his best years he could definitely get the narrative arc, kind of a lifetime achievement award, but I'm just not high on the clippers personally so I really think there's like an 80%+ chance this is Kawhi's award.

Edit: I do have to give the homer nod to lillard... He's definitely putting up the stats right now to be in the convo and I do think our team is substantially better all around than okc/hou so he has a better shot than russ/harden/etc. but I'm really doubtful he'll sustain this level all season and he'd have to have significantly better offensive numbers than Kawhi because we all know Leonard is an indescribably superior defender and his team will have more wins.... yeah just thinking about that makes me even more confident it'll be Leonard....

[damecurry]

Lol at anyone thinking Rockets will be good enough for Harden to sniff winning this award. I've got 1) Lebron 2) Westbrook 3) Lillard/Kawhi 4) Curry/Harden/Davis

you think the thunder will though? They've barely slipped past two of the five worst teams in the league so far, are horrifically thin at the forward positions, I really doubt either team wins 45+ games which would be the min. requirement imo. Don't get the belief in Lebron, why would he even try for this? Why would the cavs even let him? He's got 4 of these things and only 3 rings and only 1 in his hometown, a championship should clearly be far more important to LBJ right now than an MVP, I can't see him playing 35+ mpg or 75+ games, and I can't see him pushing that hard even when he is on court, I just don't see why he'd have the offensive production necessary to even be in the convo.