Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun?

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Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun? 

Post#121 » by jfs1000d » Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:14 pm

Double Helix wrote:OG helps offences function better by doing the simple things. Same reason Harrison Barnes helped Curry and Klay initially in a 3&D role. Stick open shots. Attack close outs. Set screens. 2:1 ass/to over 20 minutes. He’s smart. Finds the right guy. Don’t force things. Present a backdoor cut on a double team. These are the things the Raptors need out of that role.

Put Kyle Lowry on the Cavs during the Lebron 2.0 era and he’d not only have a title... his entire playoff rep would be different. I don’t think people realize just how easy Kyrie’s life was playing alongside Lebron and Love. And how much defensive attention teams through at Lowry in the playoffs because they knew he didn’t have a Lebron or Love beside him.


Kyrie has been sensational in Boston with entire defenses geared to stop him.

We can talk about Celtics, regression to mean, etc. but they are 22-5 and those 5 losses were all games with under 4 minutes to go.

Heck, two of those losses finished with a game-tying shot in the air.

And, Kyrie has been spectacular.


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Re: Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun? 

Post#122 » by Asif16 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:19 pm

Higgs Boston wrote:There isn't a thread about Celtics that doesn't include: overrated, overachieved, Raptors are better, Raptors would beat them in PO.

It's like read the big and soft version of raptors board.


Celtics fans get so insecure whenever someone makes a post criticizing them, even though its with valid information. Its a discussion forum. Make an argument as to why you think its false instead of thinking everyone's out to get you
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Re: Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun? 

Post#123 » by Big Mac Biyombo » Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:21 pm

jfs1000d wrote:
Double Helix wrote:OG helps offences function better by doing the simple things. Same reason Harrison Barnes helped Curry and Klay initially in a 3&D role. Stick open shots. Attack close outs. Set screens. 2:1 ass/to over 20 minutes. He’s smart. Finds the right guy. Don’t force things. Present a backdoor cut on a double team. These are the things the Raptors need out of that role.

Put Kyle Lowry on the Cavs during the Lebron 2.0 era and he’d not only have a title... his entire playoff rep would be different. I don’t think people realize just how easy Kyrie’s life was playing alongside Lebron and Love. And how much defensive attention teams through at Lowry in the playoffs because they knew he didn’t have a Lebron or Love beside him.


Kyrie has been sensational in Boston with entire defenses geared to stop him.


We can talk about Celtics, regression to mean, etc. but they are 22-5 and those 5 losses were all games with under 4 minutes to go.

Heck, two of those losses finished with a game-tying shot in the air.

And, Kyrie has been spectacular.


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Yeah Lowry's been doing that for 5 years. Double Helix's point is that it's a different monster in the playoffs. When you don't have the greatest player of your generation to do the bulk of the heavy lifting, generating good looks gets a lot more challenging. Kyle has never had the luxury of playing with anybody in the same universe as LeBron.
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Re: Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun? 

Post#124 » by Gil » Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:25 pm

Double Helix wrote:Boston fans:

Note the point guard rankings:
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/1

Note the SF rankings:
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/5

Note the C rankings:
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/9

Now re-Read what I said about Masai Ujiri’s draft steals narrowing the gap and Kyle Lowry being arguably better (because of defence) than Kyrie this year.

This isn’t Toronto bias. The data supports my earlier claims. The Boston guys may have been drafted at higher draft slots but that’s irrelevant now that all these guys are NBA pros producing.


Spencer Dinwiddie is better than Kyrie according to RPM & CP3/Wall aren't even Top 10 PGs.......
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Re: Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun? 

Post#125 » by jfs1000d » Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:27 pm

Big Mac Biyombo wrote:
jfs1000d wrote:
Double Helix wrote:OG helps offences function better by doing the simple things. Same reason Harrison Barnes helped Curry and Klay initially in a 3&D role. Stick open shots. Attack close outs. Set screens. 2:1 ass/to over 20 minutes. He’s smart. Finds the right guy. Don’t force things. Present a backdoor cut on a double team. These are the things the Raptors need out of that role.

Put Kyle Lowry on the Cavs during the Lebron 2.0 era and he’d not only have a title... his entire playoff rep would be different. I don’t think people realize just how easy Kyrie’s life was playing alongside Lebron and Love. And how much defensive attention teams through at Lowry in the playoffs because they knew he didn’t have a Lebron or Love beside him.


Kyrie has been sensational in Boston with entire defenses geared to stop him.


We can talk about Celtics, regression to mean, etc. but they are 22-5 and those 5 losses were all games with under 4 minutes to go.

Heck, two of those losses finished with a game-tying shot in the air.

And, Kyrie has been spectacular.


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Yeah Lowry's been doing that for 5 years. Double Helix's point is that it's a different monster in the playoffs. When you don't have the greatest player of your generation to do the bulk of the heavy lifting, generating good looks gets a lot more challenging. Kyle has never had the luxury of playing with anybody in the same universe as LeBron.


I don’t know. What about the Celtics makes people think this isn’t the team? 27 games is a large size. They are really good, have a great player in Kyrie. I get narrative is that he needed Lebron. Well, he doesn’t.

As far as raps and Lowry, good player. I don’t think anyone puts Lowry at Kyrie level. Do they? Honest question.


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Re: Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun? 

Post#126 » by Big Mac Biyombo » Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:32 pm

jfs1000d wrote:
Big Mac Biyombo wrote:
jfs1000d wrote:
Kyrie has been sensational in Boston with entire defenses geared to stop him.


We can talk about Celtics, regression to mean, etc. but they are 22-5 and those 5 losses were all games with under 4 minutes to go.

Heck, two of those losses finished with a game-tying shot in the air.

And, Kyrie has been spectacular.


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Yeah Lowry's been doing that for 5 years. Double Helix's point is that it's a different monster in the playoffs. When you don't have the greatest player of your generation to do the bulk of the heavy lifting, generating good looks gets a lot more challenging. Kyle has never had the luxury of playing with anybody in the same universe as LeBron.


I don’t know. What about the Celtics makes people think this isn’t the team? 27 games is a large size. They are really good, have a great player in Kyrie. I get narrative is that he needed Lebron. Well, he doesn’t.

As far as raps and Lowry, good player. I don’t think anyone puts Lowry at Kyrie level. Do they? Honest question.


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I'm not trying to say they're not a good team. Far from it. I think Ainge has done a better job than any GM in the East the last 5 years.

The Raptors are vastly underrated by this board though, and it's obvious that the majority of the posters here simply don't watch them.

As for Lowry/Kyrie: anyone who doesn't put them at the same level just isn't watching Lowry. There's a reason his metrics are better than Irving's every year. He just impacts the game in so many ways. Kyrie has been a better closer and big game performer though, and that has to count for something.

DH was just trying to say that this year will be telling. Kyrie has never had to go into playoff matchups where he is the opposition's primary concern defensively. It will be interesting to see how he reacts to that.
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Re: Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun? 

Post#127 » by qm22 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:51 pm

It's a trip reading the conversation from two different starting points and the never bridged gap on premises. Feels like Boston fans are gonna explode if you don't recognize their teams' awesomeness and the great MVP caliber Kyrie Irving as being, without a doubt, one who will wipe the floor with Lowrie.
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Re: Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun? 

Post#128 » by Higgs Boston » Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:24 pm

Asif16 wrote:
Higgs Boston wrote:There isn't a thread about Celtics that doesn't include: overrated, overachieved, Raptors are better, Raptors would beat them in PO.

It's like read the big and soft version of raptors board.


Celtics fans get so insecure whenever someone makes a post criticizing them, even though its with valid information. Its a discussion forum. Make an argument as to why you think its false instead of thinking everyone's out to get you


"Celtics fans get so.insecure" Lol
With the previous post I was referring precisely a people like you, not to the OP and his information.
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Re: Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun? 

Post#129 » by juju14 » Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:29 pm

711takeover wrote:
Double Helix wrote:Boston fans:

Note the point guard rankings:
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/1

Note the SF rankings:
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/5

Note the C rankings:
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/9

Now re-Read what I said about Masai Ujiri’s draft steals narrowing the gap and Kyle Lowry being arguably better (because of defence) than Kyrie this year.

This isn’t Toronto bias. The data supports my earlier claims. The Boston guys may have been drafted at higher draft slots but that’s irrelevant now that all these guys are NBA pros producing.


Well the ORPM has Lowry substantially ahead of Kyrie and I think majority of this board would take Kyrie over Lowry if you had to pick an offensive player... Playoff Kyrie is a whole different monster thus far in his career as well. It's definitely a close debate but majority of NBA fans are picking Kyrie - because of his ability to light it up

Again, OG has a higher offensive BPM than Tatum. Do you really believe OG is a better offensive player? It's actually ludicrous to suggest so lol. I understand they are statistics but just watch a few games and anyone can tell you Tatum is better offensively.

You forgetting Kyrie started the season bad offensively.
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Re: Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun? 

Post#130 » by 711takeover » Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:44 pm

juju14 wrote:
711takeover wrote:
Double Helix wrote:Boston fans:

Note the point guard rankings:
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/1

Note the SF rankings:
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/5

Note the C rankings:
http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/9

Now re-Read what I said about Masai Ujiri’s draft steals narrowing the gap and Kyle Lowry being arguably better (because of defence) than Kyrie this year.

This isn’t Toronto bias. The data supports my earlier claims. The Boston guys may have been drafted at higher draft slots but that’s irrelevant now that all these guys are NBA pros producing.


Well the ORPM has Lowry substantially ahead of Kyrie and I think majority of this board would take Kyrie over Lowry if you had to pick an offensive player... Playoff Kyrie is a whole different monster thus far in his career as well. It's definitely a close debate but majority of NBA fans are picking Kyrie - because of his ability to light it up

Again, OG has a higher offensive BPM than Tatum. Do you really believe OG is a better offensive player? It's actually ludicrous to suggest so lol. I understand they are statistics but just watch a few games and anyone can tell you Tatum is better offensively.

You forgetting Kyrie started the season bad offensively.


And yet he is still a better offensive player than Lowry lol
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Re: Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun? 

Post#131 » by 711takeover » Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:45 pm

qm22 wrote:It's a trip reading the conversation from two different starting points and the never bridged gap on premises. Feels like Boston fans are gonna explode if you don't recognize their teams' awesomeness and the great MVP caliber Kyrie Irving as being, without a doubt, one who will wipe the floor with Lowrie.


Or that "Lowrie", as you call him, just straight up isn't a better offensive player
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Re: Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun? 

Post#132 » by Double Helix » Sun Dec 10, 2017 8:48 pm

Kyrie Irving is one of the best one on one players in basketball and one hell of a shooter but he’s barely been a point guard in his career. Lebron ran the show in Cleveland and for all the talk this offseason of how much higher Kyrie’s assists were going to be now that he was out of Lebron’s shadow he’s still setting up teammates only about as often as Demar Derozan does. And that’s why I think Lowry really has been a better true point guard and is a better point guard than Irving. Irving is more of a scoring combo guard playing point guard with weak defence. In some ways he functions more like a rich man’s Demar Derozan than he does a 2-way floor general like Kyle Lowry.

Here’s a quick comparison between Demar Derozan and Kyrie Irving:
http://bkref.com/tiny/L7o05

Derozan even gets more assists than Irving and their turnovers aren’t even that far off! And Derozan’s a pure 2.

Look at some of those baseline comparables. Their teams give them similar shot attempts and they set up teammates about the same. Derozan slashes more and gets to the line more. Irving shoots the 3 more. They’re both 1-way scoring guards but Kyrie is better at it and more efficient at it because he has the 3 ball as a weapon and Derozan doesn’t. Irving’s defence will continue to slip though as it has in years past in DRPM and in the end on the year he’ll just be the better version of a Derozan type. A guy who helps you more overall on offence than Derozan does with greater efficiency from 3 point shooting but a guy whose defence hurts you.

I’d rather hide my defensive weakness at SG and have him guard 3&D types in the corner than at the point of attack vs these new offences which are tailored around scoring PGs though and that’s what the Raptors have been able to do with Derozan. Having top 10 defences despite him playing 36mpg.

When it comes to making teammates better through passing, or defending, or active, vocal leadership Lowry is above Irving in each of those areas. CP3 has loved Lowry for years for these reasons because they’re areas where CP3 is special too. The biggest advantage Irving has over Lowry is ball handling and individual scoring in one on one situations. If the question is who’s the better scorer it’s Irving. If the question is who is better at making something out of nothing with flare it’s Irving. If it’s who steps onto the court and makes their teammates better on both sides more it’s Lowry. Look at Patterson’s RPM with Lowry and Patterson without him. Look at Biyombo with Lowry and Biyombo without. Look at the way he leads those Raptors bench units and gets the most out of unheralded draft steals by putting the ball in their hands exactly when it’s right to. He figures out where guys like the ball and what they’re good at and gets them there. And Irving and Lowry both shoot the 3 about the same in the end.

This will be Irving’s first test in the playoffs without Lebron and Love as an offensive focal point versus NBA playoff level defences with more time to scheme him. So, it will be interesting to see if Irving’s playoff efficiency remains as high. My guess is that it won’t and that teams will try and force the younger Celtics to beat them.
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Re: Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun? 

Post#133 » by Baller1234a » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:19 pm

Just kept Detroit to 81 points.
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Re: Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun? 

Post#134 » by BleedGreen1989 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:29 am

Will Boston be the best defense by years end? Maybe not, but they will surely be in the “elite/very good” tier and that’s with starting a rookie, a sophomore, and a guy who’s been bagged on defensively most of his career.

I’m not being defensive, but I’m trying to get the point of the thread....
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Re: Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun? 

Post#135 » by Duke4life831 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:39 am

I dont know what their defense will be ranked by season's end. But I will say this, this team has already showed multiple times what level defensively they can turn it up to when theyre focused and all in. Just look at today, the Pistons dropped 118 on them the first game and you know Stevens and this team wanted to pay a little revenge to Detroit for that. Guess what Detroit only scored 81 today and Drummond didnt drop another 26 points, he didnt have any points in the game heading into the 4th quarter I believe.
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Re: Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun? 

Post#136 » by CeltsFlow » Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:03 am

Double Helix wrote:This will be Irving’s first test in the playoffs without Lebron and Love as an offensive focal point versus NBA playoff level defences with more time to scheme him. So, it will be interesting to see if Irving’s playoff efficiency remains as high. My guess is that it won’t and that teams will try and force the younger Celtics to beat them.


That's why well run organizations like the Celtics have multiple effective scoring options so that you can't zero in on guys like Kyrie barring injuries (Hayward :( )
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Re: Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun? 

Post#137 » by HoopsMalone » Sat Dec 16, 2017 4:37 am

Double Helix wrote:People focus on net rating because statistically it's proven to be a better barometer of future success than just looking at wins and losses.

The Celtics defensive rating was looking Ben Wallace Pistons-era strong as late as November 22nd. Some questioned that identity and suggested it likely wasn't sustainable for a team with Kyrie Irving on it playing 36 minutes per game. Real Plus Minus at the time was a friend of Irving's and Irving fans everywhere were seemingly citing it as proof that Kyrie's days of being labelled a suspect defender were long gone.

Well, here is their defensive rating over their past 10 games. It's not bad. It's okay. It's closer to average. And before anyone starts thinking that this decline in defence has occured as a result of the Celtics facing powerhouse teams, have a look at the 10 teams included:

Atlanta
Dallas
Orlando
Miami
Indiana
Detroit
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Milwaukee
Dallas

When you looked at their defensive metrics closer though during that earlier time period you could see that where they were being truly elite defensively was stopping transition. They were one of the best teams in basketball doing that but having a #1 league-wide defence propped up largely by that seemed questionable for sustainability. There wasn't much else you could see there in the data that impressed beyond that attribute. It's not terribly surprising, then, that's also moved closer to the middle over this same 10 game span.

Now, to their credit the Celtics have dramatically improved their offensive rating over this same timer period. Their new identity as an 8th ranked offence with a 12-14 ranked defence (14th over past 5 games) seems closer to an identity that they may be able to sustain and also closer to an offensive/defensive identity that some earlier doubters thought they'd regress closer to becoming.

This defensive slide also coincides with Kyrie Irving's individual DRPM sliding closer to his career norms. On the year he's now back to being the 57th ranked PG via DRPM.

Kyrie was ranked 69th last year for frame of reference.

Make no mistake about it though. The Boston Celtics new identity of the past 10 games is still that of a very strong team. Similar to others over that span, they're 8-2. However, back to net rating and identity. A net rating like this with a top 10 offence and average defence is still functioning well and playing with the ingredients of a top 4 seed in the East. And with the early wins they racked up they're still probably on pace to exceed 60 wins but the regression from elite defence to average has begun and with that goes any hope of somehow maintaining the best defence in the league while also tweaking their offence into the top 10. A recipe, that if they'd been able to achieve, had the ingredients necessary to truly surprise in the NBA playoffs. If your team is league best at either offence or defence, and top 10 in the other area, that's a recipe that should have the whole league on notice. That is looking less likely these days.

Agree? Disagree? Share your thoughts.



This was a very timely post. Very informative pointing out the trend even before the changes were reflected in the W/L column. These are the kind of posts we should be encouraging that have substantive info.

Teams are beginning to make adjustments against Boston and their luck is evening out a bit. I'm not sure we still have a great handle on what type of playoff team Boston will be again this year...
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Re: Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun? 

Post#138 » by RaptorPride » Sat Dec 16, 2017 5:43 am

Honestly, Kyrie is amazing offensively and is unstoppable in clutch moments no one can deny that.
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Re: Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun? 

Post#139 » by Double Helix » Sat Dec 16, 2017 11:48 am

HoopsMalone wrote:
Double Helix wrote:People focus on net rating because statistically it's proven to be a better barometer of future success than just looking at wins and losses.

The Celtics defensive rating was looking Ben Wallace Pistons-era strong as late as November 22nd. Some questioned that identity and suggested it likely wasn't sustainable for a team with Kyrie Irving on it playing 36 minutes per game. Real Plus Minus at the time was a friend of Irving's and Irving fans everywhere were seemingly citing it as proof that Kyrie's days of being labelled a suspect defender were long gone.

Well, here is their defensive rating over their past 10 games. It's not bad. It's okay. It's closer to average. And before anyone starts thinking that this decline in defence has occured as a result of the Celtics facing powerhouse teams, have a look at the 10 teams included:

Atlanta
Dallas
Orlando
Miami
Indiana
Detroit
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Milwaukee
Dallas

When you looked at their defensive metrics closer though during that earlier time period you could see that where they were being truly elite defensively was stopping transition. They were one of the best teams in basketball doing that but having a #1 league-wide defence propped up largely by that seemed questionable for sustainability. There wasn't much else you could see there in the data that impressed beyond that attribute. It's not terribly surprising, then, that's also moved closer to the middle over this same 10 game span.

Now, to their credit the Celtics have dramatically improved their offensive rating over this same timer period. Their new identity as an 8th ranked offence with a 12-14 ranked defence (14th over past 5 games) seems closer to an identity that they may be able to sustain and also closer to an offensive/defensive identity that some earlier doubters thought they'd regress closer to becoming.

This defensive slide also coincides with Kyrie Irving's individual DRPM sliding closer to his career norms. On the year he's now back to being the 57th ranked PG via DRPM.

Kyrie was ranked 69th last year for frame of reference.

Make no mistake about it though. The Boston Celtics new identity of the past 10 games is still that of a very strong team. Similar to others over that span, they're 8-2. However, back to net rating and identity. A net rating like this with a top 10 offence and average defence is still functioning well and playing with the ingredients of a top 4 seed in the East. And with the early wins they racked up they're still probably on pace to exceed 60 wins but the regression from elite defence to average has begun and with that goes any hope of somehow maintaining the best defence in the league while also tweaking their offence into the top 10. A recipe, that if they'd been able to achieve, had the ingredients necessary to truly surprise in the NBA playoffs. If your team is league best at either offence or defence, and top 10 in the other area, that's a recipe that should have the whole league on notice. That is looking less likely these days.

Agree? Disagree? Share your thoughts.



This was a very timely post. Very informative pointing out the trend even before the changes were reflected in the W/L column. These are the kind of posts we should be encouraging that have substantive info.

Teams are beginning to make adjustments against Boston and their luck is evening out a bit. I'm not sure we still have a great handle on what type of playoff team Boston will be again this year...


Thanks.

Net rating has traditionally been more predictive of how a team is functioning than their record. Hollinger’s old playoff projector made use of it heavily along with remaining strength of schedule.

Their slide defensively has certainly continued since I first posted it. The link in my OP had them closer to middle of the pack but if one clicks on it now they can see that the current 10 game span is actually even worse than what it was.

Kyrie’s slide defensively since I posted it too. He’s closer to the area I mentioned in that OP from last year where his defence was being criticized.
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Re: Has Boston's slide back to average defence already begun? 

Post#140 » by BasketballFan7 » Sat Dec 16, 2017 12:35 pm

Will Boston be able to pay Marcus Smart?
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