The ROTY/Rookie Discussion Thread, Part III

[Duke4life831]

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he looks injured

You cant be a guard in the NBA and have a shot like that. Its a set shot that is low and slow, it looks like something is wrong with him and he cant shoot it but has to push it. Such a weird situation.

[anthony00]

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he looks injured

You cant be a guard in the NBA and have a shot like that. Its a set shot that is low and slow, it looks like something is wrong with him and he cant shoot it but has to push it. Such a weird situation.

exactly

[LakersSoul]

For all those saying Mitchell is some dime a dozen player that's found in every draft...how come all these dime a dozen players don't do what he's doing?

DM is a gifted scorer and so damn athletic. He does have a bright future. However there is still no denying he is a smallish 6'3" combo guard and a little older than Lonzo, Tatum. Honestly, I think he is the best ROY candidate FROM 2017 drafted class which is great for personal accomplishment. However, I think DM's true ceiling and growth into a superstar will come from two areas: 1. Hunger/Passion to take his game to the next level. Does he have that killer instinct? 2. How he gets his teammates involved especially if Utah plays him as a pg.

One thing DM has to be careful is that he doesnt turn into a high scoring combo guard that has trouble elevating their teams to top 2 tiers. NBA is littered with tons of good/great guards that can score (or from any position guys that can score) but who have a hard time taking their team to the next level for whatever reason (blames could go to FO too) as its a team sport.

[Duke4life831]

My mid season Rookie awards:

ROTY: Mitchell

1st team:
Lauri
Kuzma
Tatum
Mitchell
Simmons

2nd team:
OG
Collins
Ball
DSJ
Bam

HM: Bell, Frank and Bogdanovic. Its going to be really close with that 2nd team, I cant think of too many years where you have legit snubs for the all rookie teams. Usually its a struggle to fill the 2nd team with legit guys. I mean just look at Bogdanovic's stats (a guy that barely gets talked about) and Brogdon who won ROTY last year.

Bogdanovic: 11/2/3 on 48/38/81 (59 TS%)

Brogdon: 10/3/4 on 45/40/86 (55 TS%)

Crazy how good and deep this class has been.

[HeartBreakKid]

It’s comical how underrated Ben Simmons has become in this thread. People have forgotten that he’s having one of the best all around rookie seasons ever

ever? thats a little much

Ehm yeah. And its not even really that arguable.

At least if we focus on the "all around" part. If you search on Basketball Reference for rookies with over 16 PPG 8 RPG and 7 APG and over 1.5 Steals and shooting over 50% ... you get exactly one. Ben. Remove the FG% and you get Oscar Robertson and Ben... If you lower the Rebounds to below 8 Magic joins them.

I would think with that kind of rare air "one of the best all around rookie seasons ever" is not that much of a stretch. Then if you consider that he not only does almost 17 PPG and over 7 APG ... he actually is borderline elite on Defense... (hell you can basically scratch the "borderline" ...).. his Two way Impact for a Rookie PG is insane.

If you put it in incredibly archaic terms then sure. Oscar Robertson and Magic Johnson were lightyears better as rookies in all the fields you're comparing them in. (edit: perhaps it is better to say Oscar/Magic were lightyears ahead as scorers while equal to most of Simmons other strengths. They are all comparable passers but in terms of floor generalship Robertson and Magic were better)

Ben Simmons is not a good scorer, period. So saying he is an all around player and including his PPG basically infers he is. He has high PPG because he takes a lot of shots, thats really it.

I dont think he is an elite defensive player either...better than Magic was as a rookie yeah, but is he Kawhi Leonard good? I have my doubts.


If we're talking all around play, how is he even better than Blake Griffin? Griffin might not be the defender, but he was an actual legitimate scorer as a rookie. They're both passers albeit Simmons is a better one and both rebounders albeit Griffin is a better one.


The standard here just seems really arbitrary, he's all around one of the best rookies yet he has a significant hole in his game? There are rookies like Bill Walton and Tim Duncan who were literally superstars their first seasons.

[HoopsterJones]

Halfway through the season and there are a number of rookies who are performing very well so far compared to last year where it was down to Dario Saric and Malcolm Brogdon for ROY.

Initially Simmons looked like he was going to be the runaway winner, however the pack has seem to caught up to him now. The top 4 candidates for me personally so far in no particular order:

Ben Simmons
Donovan Mitchell
Jayson Tatum
Lauri Markannen

If PHI makes the playoffs I believe Simmons will probably win it.

If the Jazz make it, Mitchell has a case to win it.

Tatum has excellent efficiency so far but may not win because he isn’t the primary play maker or option like Mitchell or Simmons.

Markannen has been very impressive of late. He leads the Bulls in total points scored. If the Bulls trade Mirotic or another big, it will probably increase his playing time.

[levon]

If you put it in incredibly archaic terms then sure. Oscar Robertson and Magic Johnson were lightyears better as rookies in all the fields you're comparing them in.

Ben Simmons is not a good scorer, period. So saying he is an all around player and including his PPG basically infers he is. He has high PPG because he takes a lot of shots, thats really it.

I dont think he is an elite defensive player either...


If we're talking all around play, how is he even better than Blake Griffin? Griffin might not be the defender, but he was an actual legitimate scorer as a rookie. They're both passers albeit Simmons is a better one and both rebounders albeit Griffin is a better one.


The standard here just seems really arbitrary, he's all around one of the best rookies yet he has a significant hole in his game? There are rookies like Bill Walton and Tim Duncan who were literally superstars their first seasons.

The dude also averages nearly 4 TO's a game to his 7.3 assists. That's 1.87 ast/TO ratio. Compared to Ball with 7.1/2.9 = 2.63. I think he's spamming the pass in scenarios that it's not there, and that's kind of concerning for a PG.

I don't know, Sixers fans and org are adamant he's the PG forever, but I still think it's gimmicky. If they figure it out, it's gonna be with a more conventional 1 who can shoot. The advantage of big dudes that can create is the 1-3, 1-4 PnR (think Steph/KD, Lebron/Kyrie). That's crazy unstoppable, especially with a big on the short roll that can collapse the defense and kick out to shooters (Simmons). I think if Fultz had panned out as expected, he'd ultimately be the 1. But I know I'm gonna take heat for that so whatever.

Edit: Looks like he leads the league in touches with 100.5. That's gotta be lower, with shorter time per possession. Make him make those reads off the ball more and watch his turnovers drop.

[jazzfan1971]

Hey, I'm thrilled my shooting form is finally taking hold in the NBA!

#trendsetter

[Alatan]

I dont understand all these people saying Ball is some great playmaker. He is painfully average in that regard. Better in transition worse in half court. Awful scorer, shooter, ball handler, finisher and has no mid range game. Decent team defender and a bad man defender. But hey, he can get you uncontested defensive rebounds so he must be the goat...

He's basically first in PG DRPM when you consider the two players in front of him play tiny roles. So decent team defender and bad man defender makes you first in your position at 20 years old? You sound salty as hell man, get a hobby.

Defensive advanced stats are trash. He is portrayed as great because of his rebounding and steal numbers combined with the teams defensive rating. That means jack ****. Anyone who watched him play sees that he is a below average man defender, specially when defending quick PGs and a decent team defender because he hustles so much to offset his atrocious offensive play.

[levon]

I dont understand all these people saying Ball is some great playmaker. He is painfully average in that regard. Better in transition worse in half court. Awful scorer, shooter, ball handler, finisher and has no mid range game. Decent team defender and a bad man defender. But hey, he can get you uncontested defensive rebounds so he must be the goat...

He's basically first in PG DRPM when you consider the two players in front of him play tiny roles. So decent team defender and bad man defender makes you first in your position at 20 years old? You sound salty as hell man, get a hobby.

Defensive advanced stats are trash. He is portrayed as great because of his rebounding and steal numbers combined with the teams defensive rating. That means jack ****. Anyone who watched him play sees that he is a below average man defender, specially when defending quick PGs and a decent team defender because he hustles so much to offset his atrocious offensive play.

Couldn't agree more about making determinations by watching him play. Which shows me either you don't actually watch him play, aren't adept at recognizing good defense, or have an agenda. Choose all that apply.

You above: "He's only good defensively in metrics because he does good defensive things like rebounds, steals, hustles on closeouts, blocks smaller guys, doesn't expose a lead foot often, reads screens by icing often, switches well, has active hands... but he's a trash defender."

[Alatan]

He's basically first in PG DRPM when you consider the two players in front of him play tiny roles. So decent team defender and bad man defender makes you first in your position at 20 years old? You sound salty as hell man, get a hobby.

Defensive advanced stats are trash. He is portrayed as great because of his rebounding and steal numbers combined with the teams defensive rating. That means jack ****. Anyone who watched him play sees that he is a below average man defender, specially when defending quick PGs and a decent team defender because he hustles so much to offset his atrocious offensive play.

Couldn't agree more about making determinations by watching him play. Which shows me either you don't actually watch him play, aren't adept at recognizing good defense, or have an agenda. Choose all that apply.

You above: "He's only good defensively in metrics because he does good defensive things like rebounds, steals, hustles on closeouts, blocks smaller guys, doesn't expose a lead foot often, reads screens by icing often, switches well, has active hands... but he's a trash defender."

Gets blown by in isos, overhelps and leaves his man open, sometimes gambles for steals and often gets away with hacking players. If we are discussing guard rebounds as an indicator of a good defender im done with the conversation. He has the tools and smarts to become a good team defender and maybe an average man defender but he is not there yet. Anyway that is nowhere near enough to cover up his terrible offensive play.

[levon]

Defensive advanced stats are trash. He is portrayed as great because of his rebounding and steal numbers combined with the teams defensive rating. That means jack ****. Anyone who watched him play sees that he is a below average man defender, specially when defending quick PGs and a decent team defender because he hustles so much to offset his atrocious offensive play.

Couldn't agree more about making determinations by watching him play. Which shows me either you don't actually watch him play, aren't adept at recognizing good defense, or have an agenda. Choose all that apply.

You above: "He's only good defensively in metrics because he does good defensive things like rebounds, steals, hustles on closeouts, blocks smaller guys, doesn't expose a lead foot often, reads screens by icing often, switches well, has active hands... but he's a trash defender."

Gets blown by in isos, overhelps and leaves his man open, sometimes gambles for steals and often gets away with hacking players. If we are discussing guard rebounds as an indicator of a good defender im done with the conversation. He has the tools and smarts to become a good team defender and maybe an average man defender but he is not there yet. Anyway that is nowhere near enough to cover up his terrible offensive play.

We can discuss rebounds since he gets all of the contested rebounds he can. I hate this "guard rebounds are fake" bs so if you're a proponent of that I won't even get into it with you.

I want examples of him getting blown by that aren't him icing a screen, the Fox game in college, and not against Kyrie and Westbrook. Because if you think defense is if you can stay in front of Westbrook and Kyrie, I got news for you.

Because I've watched him body up dudes. Literally shut off Fox's angles last game. I've seen him shut out Lillard for an entire quarter on the road, as well as stop Harden (who's best in the league at getting into the paint) and swat him emphatically. And in addition to my anecdotal evidence, I got half a season's worth of metrics to back it up. He's not just good for a rookie, he's good period.

[GameBredAPBT]

I think what Mitchell is doing is nothing short of incredible. How many people had that guy pegged as the next Mo Williams, etc? The fact that we're even discussing the Jazz potentially making the playoffs is insane. Considering they lost their "star" player, and their premier big man goes down with an injury, the way Donovan has gotten the team to buy into him as the #1 option & gotten them to rally around him speaks volumes about his future.

On paper, the Lakers should be smoking the Jazz in the standings, so why aren't they? People keep coming up with excuses for their blunders. I was real high on Ingram coming into the League. When he was dialed in, I thought he was exhilarating at Duke, and I was one of the few who thought he should have gone #1 over Simmons. I've since eaten crow on that matter, but I still think Ingram has what it takes to become a superstar. I just really can't pinpoint what it is that is keeping him from making a solid jump. He looks disinterested out there a lot of the time. Does he need to spend more time in the weight room? I'd like to see him use that length & first step a lot more.

[Alatan]

Couldn't agree more about making determinations by watching him play. Which shows me either you don't actually watch him play, aren't adept at recognizing good defense, or have an agenda. Choose all that apply.

You above: "He's only good defensively in metrics because he does good defensive things like rebounds, steals, hustles on closeouts, blocks smaller guys, doesn't expose a lead foot often, reads screens by icing often, switches well, has active hands... but he's a trash defender."

Gets blown by in isos, overhelps and leaves his man open, sometimes gambles for steals and often gets away with hacking players. If we are discussing guard rebounds as an indicator of a good defender im done with the conversation. He has the tools and smarts to become a good team defender and maybe an average man defender but he is not there yet. Anyway that is nowhere near enough to cover up his terrible offensive play.

We can discuss rebounds since he gets all of the contested rebounds he can. I hate this "guard rebounds are fake" bs so if you're a proponent of that I won't even get into it with you.

I want examples of him getting blown by that aren't him icing a screen, the Fox game in college, and not against Kyrie and Westbrook. Because if you think defense is if you can stay in front of Westbrook and Kyrie, I got news for you.

Because I've watched him body up dudes. Literally shut off Fox's angles last game. I've seen him shut out Lillard for an entire quarter on the road, as well as stop Harden (who's best in the league at getting into the paint) and swat him emphatically. And in addition to my anecdotal evidence, I got half a season's worth of metrics to back it up. He's not just good for a rookie, he's good period.

Ball is not someone you want guarding the point of attack on any good scoring guard.

[levon]

Ball is not someone you want guarding the point of attack on any good scoring guard.

You didn't address any of my points, which makes me think this discussion is over. But it doesn't matter that much because the Lakers (sometimes foolishly) switch everything anyway. Sometimes they'll pre-switch to get the right defenders on the right guys when the screen comes. And in this scheme Ball's been matched up with everyone pretty much 1-4 and has held his own really well.

If you got a really good scoring PG, no individual defender at the point is really gonna remedy that. That's about team D. A screen is coming anyway. That's why PG defense is probably least important out of all positions.

[PLO]

Simmons is still putting up incredible numbers for a rookie, scoring and otherwise; he's about on par with Jason Kidd's best season ever. That's the Jason Kidd who will soon enter the HOF BTW, just in case some people on here don't know who that is, because it does seem a number of people on here are pretty clueless about the actual game of basketball on a basketball forum.

I think the issue is, that many younger Fans especially those who started watching the NBA because of GSW.. or even those who started watching lets say 5 years ago.. have never seen Kidd play...especially not Prime Kidd.

I started watching the NBA in 1999 .. so one of my first memories are Kidd dragging comparably bad Nets Teams to the Finals and beeing the only reason those wherent blowout Sweeps.

Hell if Ben would be a 6'11 Kidd i would love that. The Two way Impact... and hell i am totally happy if he would develop a good 3pt Shot after 30 like Kidd did

If you two are both claiming that Ben’s rookie season on par with Kidd’s best season, I don’t think it’s everyone else who hasn’t seen Kidd play...

The numbers are comparable is what I'm saying - its certainly a claim that holds a lot more water than the Lonzo Ball = Jason Kidd stuff trotted out by a lot of people around here, but sure you just run with whatever conclusion you want to jump to with my post, I mean you're only meant to be a mod here amiright?

[Alatan]

Ball is not someone you want guarding the point of attack on any good scoring guard.

You didn't address any of my points, which makes me think this discussion is over. But it doesn't matter that much because the Lakers (sometimes foolishly) switch everything anyway. Sometimes they'll pre-switch to get the right defenders on the right guys when the screen comes. And in this scheme Ball's been matched up with everyone pretty much 1-4 and has held his own really well.

If you got a really good scoring PG, no individual defender at the point is really gonna remedy that. That's about team D. A screen is coming anyway. That's why PG defense is probably least important out of all positions.

Yeah i dont want to get into guard rebounding and no amount of anecdotes about getting blown by by stars is going to prove anything. The last comment about guards having the least defensive impact is a bit funny considering its what people are arguing makes Ball so good along with his overrated playmaking.

[levon]

Ball is not someone you want guarding the point of attack on any good scoring guard.

You didn't address any of my points, which makes me think this discussion is over. But it doesn't matter that much because the Lakers (sometimes foolishly) switch everything anyway. Sometimes they'll pre-switch to get the right defenders on the right guys when the screen comes. And in this scheme Ball's been matched up with everyone pretty much 1-4 and has held his own really well.

If you got a really good scoring PG, no individual defender at the point is really gonna remedy that. That's about team D. A screen is coming anyway. That's why PG defense is probably least important out of all positions.

Yeah i dont want to get into guard rebounding and no amount of anecdotes about getting blown by by stars is going to prove anything. The last comment about guards having the least defensive impact is a bit funny considering its what people are arguing makes Ball so good along with his overrated playmaking.

I mean you just don't like Lonzo Ball, I get it. But defense is part of what makes Lonzo a solid player because he can switch and hold his own, and everyone (me included) expected him to be a sieve coming in. Just because PG defense is least important doesn't mean it doesn't impact games.

I think people need to start projecting Ball as an elite role player, not a first or even second option on a championship team. He reminds me of Draymond a lot, and some of his statistical profile is comparable to a prime Draymond right now. Frankly I think he projects to be a better shooter and playmaker though. That's someone you want next to versatile, high usage scorers and you got yourself a few chips.

[SmartWentCrazy]

The numbers are comparable is what I'm saying - its certainly a claim that holds a lot more water than the Lonzo Ball = Jason Kidd stuff trotted out by a lot of people around here, but sure you just run with whatever conclusion you want to jump to with my post, I mean you're only meant to be a mod here amiright?

No, they’re not. I mean, if you want to look at raw points/assists/rebounds, sure, but advanced stats exist for a reason. And anything that measures Kidd’s impact would show you how wrong you are.

And Lonzo Ball being falsely compared to Jason Kidd doesn’t make a Ben Simmons comparison any less ridiculous— not really sure of your point.

Finally, you tell me what conclusion I’m jumping to:

he's about on par with Jason Kidd's best season ever.

How else should that be taken?

[Alatan]

You didn't address any of my points, which makes me think this discussion is over. But it doesn't matter that much because the Lakers (sometimes foolishly) switch everything anyway. Sometimes they'll pre-switch to get the right defenders on the right guys when the screen comes. And in this scheme Ball's been matched up with everyone pretty much 1-4 and has held his own really well.

If you got a really good scoring PG, no individual defender at the point is really gonna remedy that. That's about team D. A screen is coming anyway. That's why PG defense is probably least important out of all positions.

Yeah i dont want to get into guard rebounding and no amount of anecdotes about getting blown by by stars is going to prove anything. The last comment about guards having the least defensive impact is a bit funny considering its what people are arguing makes Ball so good along with his overrated playmaking.

I mean you just don't like Lonzo Ball, I get it. But defense is part of what makes Lonzo a solid player because he can switch and hold his own, and everyone (me included) expected him to be a sieve coming in. Just because PG defense is least important doesn't mean it doesn't impact games.

I think people need to start projecting Ball as an elite role player, not a first or even second option on a championship team. He reminds me of Draymond a lot, and some of his statistical profile is comparable to a prime Draymond right now. Frankly I think he projects to be a better shooter and playmaker though. That's someone you want next to versatile, high usage scorers and you got yourself a few chips.

Yeah i dont like him at all. Mostly because of the big part of his fanbase that claims he is some superstar playmaker with incredible impact that you can see only if you are a HoF basketball analyst. Everything good is due to his involvement and everything bad is because of his teams inability to finish his ingeniously orchestrated plays. If he was indeed this great playmaker he wouldn't need great players and just the right situation around him. Great playmakers make scrubs decent and good players great. Thats the point of playmaking. They dont need PG13 and LeBron converting their passes to points. Ball may end up being an elite roleplayer type, Il admit that much but there is quite a few thing he needs to address before that happens.