What is Gersson Rosas doing?

[Worm Guts]

Well no kidding. Unfortunately, those other ways aren't especially relevant here, given the Timberwolves situation: acquiring future draft picks to absorb bad contracts, for instance, does not help the Timberwolves build a competitive team in the present, to prevent KAT from pulling an Anthony Davis a couple years down the road (the teams primary objective, as Rosas has noted repeatedly, and as fans are painfully aware). So my point stands. Not sure what the point of this non-response response was, to be honest.

KAT has another 5 years on his contract. The Wolves don't have to competitive next year, or necessarily even the year after that. Build up your assets, clear cap space, make the right moves at the right time.

KAT has 5 years on his contract, but as we've seen, stars are increasingly willing to demand/ask for a trade before the final year of their contract. So make it more like 4 years to prove to Towns that they can build a winner. And rookies, even future All-Stars, and particularly point guards (arguably the Wolves biggest hole), typically take a few seasons to become significant positive contributors. So, suppose the Wolves clear significant cap space by next offseason (one year closer to a possible KAT trade demand), and obtain a couple future 1st for absorbing a bad contract or two. Those players likely won't help much until you're in the last year or two of KAT's contract. So time really isn't on their side, and waiting for future draft picks to develop to build a competitive team is incredibly risky.
.

I agree that the Wolves can't wait until year 5 to be competitive, and they shouldn't counting on rookies. What they can do is acquire assets that allow them to potentially acquire a star to put next KAT either next year or the after. I don't think the goal here is a slow rebuild, but they do have to spend some time rebuilding.

[enaidealukal]

KAT has another 5 years on his contract. The Wolves don't have to competitive next year, or necessarily even the year after that. Build up your assets, clear cap space, make the right moves at the right time.

KAT has 5 years on his contract, but as we've seen, stars are increasingly willing to demand/ask for a trade before the final year of their contract. So make it more like 4 years to prove to Towns that they can build a winner. And rookies, even future All-Stars, and particularly point guards (arguably the Wolves biggest hole), typically take a few seasons to become significant positive contributors. So, suppose the Wolves clear significant cap space by next offseason (one year closer to a possible KAT trade demand), and obtain a couple future 1st for absorbing a bad contract or two. Those players likely won't help much until you're in the last year or two of KAT's contract. So time really isn't on their side, and waiting for future draft picks to develop to build a competitive team is incredibly risky.
.

I agree that the Wolves can't wait until year 5 to be competitive, and they shouldn't counting on rookies. What they can do is acquire assets that allow them to potentially acquire a star to put next KAT either next year or the after. I don't think the goal here is a slow rebuild, but they do have to spend some time rebuilding.

Right, but so thus the argument for keeping Tyus rather than letting him walk to increase cap space: opening up cap space to sign free agents, or to acquire assets for taking on bad contracts, are problematic for the reasons already mentioned. Of course its always possible to flip draft assets or prospects acquired for absorbing bad contracts for a future star, but that involves a bunch of contingencies that you have no control over. working out in your favor. Whereas the benefit to keeping a helpful young player at a position of need on a value contract is more direct and easily realized. And those types of contracts can usually be flipped for picks/players/cap space if the need arises anyways.

I'm not saying losing Tyus was some Earth-shattering, franchise-dooming mistake, only that it probably wasn't optimal relative to the alternatives, for a franchise with little margin for error.

[Worm Guts]

KAT has 5 years on his contract, but as we've seen, stars are increasingly willing to demand/ask for a trade before the final year of their contract. So make it more like 4 years to prove to Towns that they can build a winner. And rookies, even future All-Stars, and particularly point guards (arguably the Wolves biggest hole), typically take a few seasons to become significant positive contributors. So, suppose the Wolves clear significant cap space by next offseason (one year closer to a possible KAT trade demand), and obtain a couple future 1st for absorbing a bad contract or two. Those players likely won't help much until you're in the last year or two of KAT's contract. So time really isn't on their side, and waiting for future draft picks to develop to build a competitive team is incredibly risky.
.

I agree that the Wolves can't wait until year 5 to be competitive, and they shouldn't counting on rookies. What they can do is acquire assets that allow them to potentially acquire a star to put next KAT either next year or the after. I don't think the goal here is a slow rebuild, but they do have to spend some time rebuilding.

Right, but so thus the argument for keeping Tyus rather than letting him walk to increase cap space: opening up cap space to sign free agents, or to acquire assets for taking on bad contracts, are problematic for the reasons already mentioned. Of course its always possible to flip draft assets or prospects acquired for absorbing bad contracts for a future star, but that involves a bunch of contingencies that you have no control over. working out in your favor. Whereas the benefit to keeping a helpful young player at a position of need on a value contract is more direct and easily realized. And those types of contracts can usually be flipped for picks/players/cap space if the need arises anyways.

I'm not saying losing Tyus was some Earth-shattering, franchise-dooming mistake, only that it probably wasn't optimal relative to the alternatives, for a franchise with little margin for error.

I don't know that Tyus was an asset with contract, and in general I don't know how committed you want to be to backups when you're still looking for an impact player. Tyus would have been a helpful player this year, but he really has to improve his shooting for this to be a mistake, I think.

[enaidealukal]

I agree that the Wolves can't wait until year 5 to be competitive, and they shouldn't counting on rookies. What they can do is acquire assets that allow them to potentially acquire a star to put next KAT either next year or the after. I don't think the goal here is a slow rebuild, but they do have to spend some time rebuilding.

Right, but so thus the argument for keeping Tyus rather than letting him walk to increase cap space: opening up cap space to sign free agents, or to acquire assets for taking on bad contracts, are problematic for the reasons already mentioned. Of course its always possible to flip draft assets or prospects acquired for absorbing bad contracts for a future star, but that involves a bunch of contingencies that you have no control over. working out in your favor. Whereas the benefit to keeping a helpful young player at a position of need on a value contract is more direct and easily realized. And those types of contracts can usually be flipped for picks/players/cap space if the need arises anyways.

I'm not saying losing Tyus was some Earth-shattering, franchise-dooming mistake, only that it probably wasn't optimal relative to the alternatives, for a franchise with little margin for error.

I don't know that Tyus was an asset with contract, and in general I don't know how committed you want to be to backups when you're still looking for an impact player. Tyus would have been a helpful player this year, but he really has to improve his shooting for this to be a mistake, I think.

If Tyus was indeed seeking a $25 million/4 year contract to stay in Minnesota as was reported (by Jon K, iirc), there's not much question he would remain a positive asset. He is, at worst, a high-end backup. And by many metrics (like RPM), including the one that matters most (i.e. scoring more points than you allow the other team to score- lineups with Tyus end up having some of the best net ratings the Timberwolves posted), he was starting-caliber, particularly defensively. At age 23. $6 million/year is an absolute bargain for such a player (look at the contracts given to Delon Wright, Tomas Satoransky, etc.). Even at the figure he ended up signing for with Memphis (~8 million/year), he would be a neutral asset at worst (if his 3pt shooting never comes around, which seems doubtful given that he's an excellent FT shooter and has been a competent 3-pt shooter in the past).

So letting him walk in exchange for cap flexibility of dubious usefulness seems highly unlikely to be an optimal outcome, especially since you probably could have kept him, and still been able to achieve the flexibility under the cap if a situation arises where you actually need it. Not a huge mistake, but probably a mistake of some size or other.

[Worm Guts]

Right, but so thus the argument for keeping Tyus rather than letting him walk to increase cap space: opening up cap space to sign free agents, or to acquire assets for taking on bad contracts, are problematic for the reasons already mentioned. Of course its always possible to flip draft assets or prospects acquired for absorbing bad contracts for a future star, but that involves a bunch of contingencies that you have no control over. working out in your favor. Whereas the benefit to keeping a helpful young player at a position of need on a value contract is more direct and easily realized. And those types of contracts can usually be flipped for picks/players/cap space if the need arises anyways.

I'm not saying losing Tyus was some Earth-shattering, franchise-dooming mistake, only that it probably wasn't optimal relative to the alternatives, for a franchise with little margin for error.

I don't know that Tyus was an asset with contract, and in general I don't know how committed you want to be to backups when you're still looking for an impact player. Tyus would have been a helpful player this year, but he really has to improve his shooting for this to be a mistake, I think.

If Tyus was indeed seeking a $25 million/4 year contract to stay in Minnesota as was reported (by Jon K, iirc), there's not much question he would remain a positive asset. He is, at worst, a high-end backup. And by many metrics (like RPM), including the one that matters most (i.e. scoring more points than you allow the other team to score- lineups with Tyus end up having some of the best net ratings the Timberwolves posted), he was starting-caliber, particularly defensively. At age 23. $6 million/year is an absolute bargain for such a player (look at the contracts given to Delon Wright, Tomas Satoransky, etc.). Even at the figure he ended up signing for with Memphis (~8 million/year), he would be a neutral asset at worst (if his 3pt shooting never comes around, which seems doubtful given that he's an excellent FT shooter and has been a competent 3-pt shooter in the past).

So letting him walk in exchange for cap flexibility of dubious usefulness seems highly unlikely to be an optimal outcome, especially since you probably could have kept him, and still been able to achieve the flexibility under the cap if a situation arises where you actually need it. Not a huge mistake, but probably a mistake of some size or other.

I don't know, I just see Tyus as an average backup at this point. 6 million per year would a good contract, but I also don't know that you should feel obligated to commit 4 years to average backup. Maybe he improves and becomes a steal at that number, but I think it's about whatever your projection for Tyus is.

[Rubio9Guy]

They got Napier, Layman, Bell, Vonleh, and Graham for like a combined 10 million.

Plus moving to okay assets for Culver.

He's been phenomenal so far. They would have landed DLO if not for the best organization coming in at the last second.

What did you expect with their cap situation?

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[enaidealukal]

I don't know, I just see Tyus as an average backup at this point. 6 million per year would a good contract, but I also don't know that you should feel obligated to commit 4 years to average backup. Maybe he improves and becomes a steal at that number, but I think it's about whatever your projection for Tyus is.

Obviously we're all entitled to our own opinion, but "average backup" doesn't really square with what objective measures we have available. He was the 27th best PG in the league last year by RPM (in a down year,) the 7th best PG the year before that. PIPM roughly the same range. Same for WS/48. BPM slightly lower than that, but still on the "good backup/adequate starter' borderline. And as I said, lineups with Tyus tended to be the best Timberwolves lineup in terms of outscoring the opponent- iirc, only Towns+Butler lineups had a higher net rating among 2-man Twolves lineups than Towns+Tyus lineups. All this at the tender age of 22-23; not too shabby at all.

For another rough point of reference, though admittedly an imperfect and speculative one- 538's CARMELO metric puts his 5-year contract value at $128 million (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/tyus-jones/). Last year (again, in a down year), he provided $8.4 million in on-court value, based on their formula for VORP/Win Shares per million dollars in salary. $28 million the year before that. Even if these figures are all wildly, wildly off, he still remains a bargain at $6-8 million, and is pretty clearly a value/upside play in that range, especially given his age.. which is precisely the sort of deal the Timberwolves need to find, with the limited resources at their disposal. Losing him not a make-or-break mistake, but quite probably a sub-optimal outcome to some degree.

[Worm Guts]

I don't know, I just see Tyus as an average backup at this point. 6 million per year would a good contract, but I also don't know that you should feel obligated to commit 4 years to average backup. Maybe he improves and becomes a steal at that number, but I think it's about whatever your projection for Tyus is.

Obviously we're all entitled to our own opinion, but "average backup" doesn't really square with what objective measures we have available. He was the 27th best PG in the league last year by RPM (in a down year,) the 7th best PG the year before that. PIPM roughly the same range. Same for WS/48. BPM slightly lower than that, but still on the "good backup/adequate starter' borderline. And as I said, lineups with Tyus tended to be the best Timberwolves lineup in terms of outscoring the opponent- iirc, only Towns+Butler lineups had a higher net rating among 2-man Twolves lineups than Towns+Tyus lineups. All this at the tender age of 22-23; not too shabby at all.

For another rough point of reference, though admittedly an imperfect and speculative one- 538's CARMELO metric puts his 5-year contract value at $128 million (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/tyus-jones/). Last year (again, in a down year), he provided $8.4 million in on-court value, based on their formula for VORP/Win Shares per million dollars in salary. $28 million the year before that. Even if these figures are all wildly, wildly off, he still remains a bargain at $6-8 million, and is pretty clearly a value/upside play in that range, especially given his age.. which is precisely the sort of deal the Timberwolves need to find, with the limited resources at their disposal. Losing him not a make-or-break mistake, but quite probably a sub-optimal outcome to some degree.

I don't think he's a great fit in the modern game, he doesn't create his own shot and he's a poor shooter and he doesn't have the size or athleticism to switch on defense. I think he's situation dependent, and if you're starting from scratch, not the type of player you look for. Yes, he does certain things really well, but how much you value those things is going to depend on the players you put around him.

[enaidealukal]

I don't think he's a great fit in the modern game, he doesn't create his own shot and he's a poor shooter. I think he's situation dependent, and if you're starting from scratch, not the type of player you look for. Yes, he does certain things really well, but how much you value those things is going to depend on the players you put around him.

Good defenders who don't make mistakes aren't a good fit in the modern game? Why on Earth would that be? And again, the facts contradict this: if he's such a poor fit for the modern game, why did lineups with Tyus in them so consistently outperform lineups without Tyus in terms of outscoring the opponent (which is, after all, the point of basketball)? Why do all the objective statistical measures of on-court performance look so favorably on him?

And RE fit on the Timberwolves roster, this only strengthens the argument for keeping Tyus: given the current makeup of the roster with high-usage scorers (Towns, Wiggins, Teague) and few good defenders, a good defensive PG who runs the offense without making mistakes and doesn't require a lot of shots is a very good fit. And calling him a "poor" shooter is as stretch: prior to last year, he had back-to-back seasons shooting around league average from 3 (35-36%). And he's an excellent free throw shooter (82% on his career, 84% last year), which is highly predictive of future 3-pt shooting. He's almost certainly going to be just fine as a 3-pt threat. He won't be Steph Curry, but he's not going to be Ricky Rubio either.

[enaidealukal]

And importantly, the Wolves are NOT "starting from scratch": their books are loaded with large, long-term contracts. Given their lack of financial flexibility, finding good value on the margins is even more important than it is for teams with more resources. Finding good value/upside plays, like Tyus, are exactly what you want to be looking for, in the Timberwolves position.

[Worm Guts]

I don't think he's a great fit in the modern game, he doesn't create his own shot and he's a poor shooter. I think he's situation dependent, and if you're starting from scratch, not the type of player you look for. Yes, he does certain things really well, but how much you value those things is going to depend on the players you put around him.

Good defenders who don't make mistakes aren't a good fit in the modern game? Why on Earth would that be? And again, the facts contradict this: if he's such a poor fit for the modern game, why did lineups with Tyus in them so consistently outperform lineups without Tyus in terms of outscoring the opponent (which is, after all, the point of basketball)? Why do all the objective statistical measures of on-court performance look so favorably on him?

And RE fit on the Timberwolves roster, this only strengthens the argument for keeping Tyus: given the current makeup of the roster with high-usage scorers (Towns, Wiggins, Teague) and few good defenders, a good defensive PG who runs the offense without making mistakes and doesn't require a lot of shots is a very good fit. And calling him a "poor" shooter is as stretch: prior to last year, he had back-to-back seasons shooting around league average (35-36%). And he's an excellent free throw shooter (82% on his career, 84% last year), which is highly predictive of future 3-pt shooting. He's almost certainly going to be just fine as a 3-pt threat. He won't be Steph Curry, but he also is a long way from being a Ricky Rubio either.

He's not a good shooter, he doesn't create his own shot, he's small and not athletic. Yes, he does things well and advanced stats love him. He's a lot like Ricky Rubio in that there are metrics that love him despite the fact that he doesn't really do much that modern basketball says you should value. I don't particularly have a strong opinion on how you should treat players like Tyus or Rubio. You want commit or you don't want to commit, there's strong reasons for both. I don't think Rosas should have felt compelled to keep him, but if he did, that could have been justified as well.

[Rubio9Guy]

And importantly, the Wolves are NOT "starting from scratch": their books are loaded with large, long-term contracts. Given their lack of financial flexibility, finding good value on the margins is even more important than it is for teams with more resources. Finding good value/upside plays, like Tyus, are exactly what you want to be looking for, in the Timberwolves position.

Then clearly Rosas doesn't agree with your assessment of Tyus, which is completely fair.

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[Klomp]

Free agency is not the only way a team can use its cap space

Well no kidding. Unfortunately, those other ways aren't especially relevant here, given the Timberwolves situation: acquiring future draft picks to absorb bad contracts, for instance, does not help the Timberwolves build a competitive team in the present, to prevent KAT from pulling an Anthony Davis a couple years down the road (the teams primary objective, as Rosas has noted repeatedly, and as fans are painfully aware). So my point stands. Not sure what the point of this non-response response was, to be honest.

Could also be used to acquire a star. Just as an example, do you really expect D'Angelo Russell to play out the life of his contract in Golden State? Personally, it would not surprise me if GS decided to flip him within a year. Those are the types of deals I expect us to be in on. Cap space means we don't have to match salaries. Lots of possibilities there. There's also the potential for other star players to ask out of their current situations, where we could jump at the opportunity.

[Klomp]

And importantly, the Wolves are NOT "starting from scratch": their books are loaded with large, long-term contracts. Given their lack of financial flexibility, finding good value on the margins is even more important than it is for teams with more resources. Finding good value/upside plays, like Tyus, are exactly what you want to be looking for, in the Timberwolves position.

At the deal Memphis gave him, Tyus is not a good value. More like average value. He's on the highest end of his price range, and would've been unlikely to be worth that contract here.

And not all situations are equal either. Even if he outperforms his deal there doesn't mean he would've done the same here. It wouldn't be a bad situation in Minnesota, but in Memphis he has a better chance to maximize the value of that contract.

[Slim Tubby]

And importantly, the Wolves are NOT "starting from scratch": their books are loaded with large, long-term contracts. Given their lack of financial flexibility, finding good value on the margins is even more important than it is for teams with more resources. Finding good value/upside plays, like Tyus, are exactly what you want to be looking for, in the Timberwolves position.

At the deal Memphis gave him, Tyus is not a good value. More like average value. He's on the highest end of his price range, and would've been unlikely to be worth that contract here.

And not all situations are equal either. Even if he outperforms his deal there doesn't mean he would've done the same here. It wouldn't be a bad situation in Minnesota, but in Memphis he has a better chance to maximize the value of that contract.

MEM can afford to pay Tyus that kind of a contract for a back-up PG with Morant on his Rookie deal for the next five (5) years. The idea of MIN paying $28M combined for Teague and Tyus next year is unfathomable when you factor in that Tyus will never be a starter in this league even after Teague's contract expires after this upcoming season. Good choice by Rosas but I can also understand why MEM did the deal with their current situation.

[bulliedog8]

Wiggins contract will get better and better as cap increases. I bet in 1-2 years, they’d be able to trade him for neutral value or even get positive back. Is he really that much worse than a Harrison Barnes?

Not sure how many teams have cap in 2021 but I could see a small market team take him in, and maybe minor assets like 2 2nds. Wolves will have 2-3 years to put a competent team around towns. And they could still trade for dangelo and hope those two sign long term together when they go for their second contracts.

When klay returns. Teague and Covington for dangelo.

Wolves get their young star and towns best friend. Warriors are all in to continue their dynasty. Curry klay Covington draymond wcs is a title contender for sure

[Slim Tubby]

Wiggins contract will get better and better as cap increases. I bet in 1-2 years, they’d be able to trade him for neutral value or even get positive back. Is he really that much worse than a Harrison Barnes?

Not sure how many teams have cap in 2021 but I could see a small market team take him in, and maybe minor assets like 2 2nds. Wolves will have 2-3 years to put a competent team around towns. And they could still trade for dangelo and hope those two sign long term together when they go for their second contracts.

When klay returns. Teague and Covington for dangelo.

Wolves get their young star and towns best friend. Warriors are all in to continue their dynasty. Curry klay Covington draymond wcs is a title contender for sure

Good post, bullie...RoCo would be a PERFECT fit for the current GSW roster IMO.

[jbk1234]

Hindsight is 20/20 but the decision not to include Covington in the offer to the Pelicans may come back to bite them. I've got no problem with 11 and Saric for Culver though.

The cap space bind they're in also isn't Rosa's fault. Moving off of Teague, Dieng, or Wiggins was going to require an asset. Having to move off of two of them to become players in F.A.was too heavy a lift.

I liked the fact that they basically got all of the Warriors young bench guys for free.

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I have a hard time believing that Garland/Saric > Covington/Culver. Garland would have to be borderline Lilliard or Tray Young esqe which he may be, but that is near the top end of his projections and that would also likely involve Culver not even reaching the middle area of his projected ceiling.

I'm really meh on Saric. Especially since he needs to get paid next summer.

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[brutalitops]

For the people who are saying we have waited too long and need to be competitive

That's the exact same type of thinking which led thibs to maxing Wiggins giving Dieng a 16m extension. Signing Gibson to 16m. Teague to 19m. Trading Rubio. Trading for Butler.

We already went all in for a third star. It's crippled us. **** hold the hell up and let Rosas fix the cap before we **** it up agaib

[Da ThRONe]

For the people who are saying we have waited too long and need to be competitive

That's the exact same type of thinking which led thibs to maxing Wiggins giving Dieng a 16m extension. Signing Gibson to 16m. Teague to 19m. Trading Rubio. Trading for Butler.

We already went all in for a third star. It's crippled us. **** hold the hell up and let Rosas fix the cap before we **** it up agaib

I agree Towns is young enough and on a long enough contract to warrant patience. Refusing to overpay for a backup PG is no reason to panic. Wiggins is still young, healthy, and gifted. He could turn it around or at least increase is public value. There is zero reason to think he's not capable of handling this mess as of now.