Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ)

[Richfield]

I was thinking at first that the CDC would suggest tighter restrictions after this 15 days are up. Now I think they may be considering opening things up to save the economy.

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Which 15 days? Yours or mine or somebody in Saskatchewan?

We're all on staggered lockdowns. It's going to cost lives if/when one lockdown ends while others have just begun.

Kind of reckless to not all be on the same page for something like this.

By all I mean country, continent, or world. The largest possible amount of cooperative human beings.

[jayrehme]

I was thinking at first that the CDC would suggest tighter restrictions after this 15 days are up. Now I think they may be considering opening things up to save the economy.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Which 15 days? Yours or mine or somebody in Saskatchewan?

We're all on staggered lockdowns. It's going to cost lives if/when one lockdown ends while others have just begun.

Kind of reckless to not all be on the same page for something like this.

By all I mean country, continent, or world. The largest possible amount of cooperative human beings.

They gave proper recommendations. You don't want government force.

[Triples333]

I was thinking at first that the CDC would suggest tighter restrictions after this 15 days are up. Now I think they may be considering opening things up to save the economy.

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IIRC that's sort of what Italy did and why it turned into such a disaster.

That's literally the worst thing you can do.... it's like throwing away all your progress and starting over again.

It would be one thing if we had a mass test/trace/quarantine system in place in 15 days... but we won't. Testing is still terrible most places outside of NY

100%. I touched on it in my last post that while I am all sails ahead on doing everything we can to re-open business ASAP, we can not do it until we have mass testing, have mass stockpiles of PPE - specifically N95 masks, and continue to quarantine those at high risk. It will indeed only compound this problem if we jump the gun without getting measures in place (they're coming).

Here is a positive links concerning said measures:

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Stanford medical is also conducting tests that allow for the potential re-use of N95 masks (basically place them near boiling water vapor for >10 mins), but I don't believe it is confirmed to be effective for viruses yet (just bacteria), so that is still in the works.

[KingDavid]

Canada cases jumping today shortly after US Canada border closure due to Quebec. You can assume most of that is from Florida.

I'm not sure how you're connecting Florida. What's the connection?

I thought maybe it had to do not just with past spread, but the ability to test more and more. It's just a clearer picture of what's been going on for the past few weeks.

A LOT of snowbirds from Canada come down here for the winter/spring.

[G R E Y]

That leadership

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[zimpy27]

I was thinking at first that the CDC would suggest tighter restrictions after this 15 days are up. Now I think they may be considering opening things up to save the economy.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

IIRC that's sort of what Italy did and why it turned into such a disaster.

That's literally the worst thing you can do.... it's like throwing away all your progress and starting over again.

It would be one thing if we had a mass test/trace/quarantine system in place in 15 days... but we won't. Testing is still terrible most places outside of NY

100%. I touched on it in my last post that while I am all sails ahead on doing everything we can to re-open business ASAP, we can not do it until we have mass testing, have mass stockpiles of PPE - specifically N95 masks, and continue to quarantine those at high risk. It will indeed only compound this problem if we jump the gun without getting measures in place (they're coming).

Here is a positive links concerning said measures:

Read on Twitter

Stanford medical is also conducting tests that allow for the potential re-use of N95 masks (basically place them near boiling water vapor for >10 mins), but I don't believe it is confirmed to be effective for viruses yet (just bacteria), so that is still in the works.

This is what is needed.

Sadly the tech to make a 20-minute or less test for any virus has been around for many many years. I know of massive project proposals that applied to produce millions of these to be used in worldwide airports during a sudden outbreak of a new virus to contain and track them early but projects like this don't get funded. They need millions of dollars but the people signing the checks don't have the specialist knowledge to appreciate the value.

$100 million invested 10 years ago would have saved the world trillions upon trillions and no one would have even known.

[LKN]

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[Richfield]

I was thinking at first that the CDC would suggest tighter restrictions after this 15 days are up. Now I think they may be considering opening things up to save the economy.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Which 15 days? Yours or mine or somebody in Saskatchewan?

We're all on staggered lockdowns. It's going to cost lives if/when one lockdown ends while others have just begun.

Kind of reckless to not all be on the same page for something like this.

By all I mean country, continent, or world. The largest possible amount of cooperative human beings.

They gave proper recommendations. You don't want government force.

That is a case for the acceptance of staggered lockdowns? "They gave proper recommendations"?

I'm not sure you're understanding the essence/value of the recommendation itself, if you think just making it, in different places at different times is good enough.

Goal should be to "give proper recommendations" that coincide more collectively. The ones that are participating. I was pretty clear. Not advocating more or less force, just a more unified start date.

[Capn'O]

South Korea are true models here.

Italy day to day death/case total finally on the decline. Praying it keeps up and within a few week the rest of us can follow suit.

[Optimus_Steel]

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"Well atleast the market went up 50 basis points for 15 minutes"

[Dirk]

f people show up at the hospital.

This paper touches on this. You can see the different scenarios.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

The conclusion,

Uncharted territory.

This is a fresh paper from Harvard.

Social distancing strategies forcurbing the COVID-19 epidemic
https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/42638988/Social%20distancing%20strategies%20for%20curbing%20the%20COVID-19%20epidemic.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
Highlighting a part...

[NoDopeOnSundays]

The US doesn't want to do anything to help mitigate the problem, they wont use DPA, they won't ramp up testing everywhere, it's just incredible really. Instead, they want to start up the economy ASAP, not realizing once people's loved ones start dropping dead the economy will crumble because the population will be in fear that they could roll that unlucky number. It's just asinine.

[Bandit King]

The US doesn't want to do anything to help mitigate the problem, they wont use DPA, they won't ramp up testing everywhere, it's just incredible really. Instead, they want to start up the economy ASAP, not realizing once people's loved ones start dropping dead the economy will crumble because the population will be in fear that they could roll that unlucky number. It's just asinine.

Money talks sh(t walks!

[NoDopeOnSundays]

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?s=20



Florida is in trouble.

[LKN]

The US doesn't want to do anything to help mitigate the problem, they wont use DPA, they won't ramp up testing everywhere, it's just incredible really. Instead, they want to start up the economy ASAP, not realizing once people's loved ones start dropping dead the economy will crumble because the population will be in fear that they could roll that unlucky number. It's just asinine.

Again - this seems short sighted. It seems likely that there are huge economic downsides to letting COVID-19 basically run wild

[zimpy27]

This paper touches on this. You can see the different scenarios.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

The conclusion,

Uncharted territory.

This is a fresh paper from Harvard.

Social distancing strategies forcurbing the COVID-19 epidemic
https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/42638988/Social%20distancing%20strategies%20for%20curbing%20the%20COVID-19%20epidemic.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
Highlighting a part...

Figure 3D looks like the best situation for the economy while still keep the virus under control.
Would mean 5 more 5 week periods of co-ordinated isolation over the next 12 months could keep it controlled.


The R0 used looks a little generous though. That R0 probably changes from city to city. A denser and drier city probably needs more isolation time.

Don't think this even accounts for a vaccine either, which could improve the situation.

Really like this concept for the economy, it means sporting events can predictively continue and businesses can have an open for business free for all period and a closed period.

To allow this model to happen testing needs to be ubiquitous but it's a very real solution for economy and the lives of the people.

[Mind_Odyssey]

Florida being screwed is the least surprising thing I’ve heard throughout all of this.

[zimpy27]

More needs to be done in determining if the loss of smell (Anosmia) is a legitimate sign of the virus in asymptomatic carriers.

The protocol to test for something like this could be made DIY for the home and sent out everywhere.

[rugbyrugger23]

The US doesn't want to do anything to help mitigate the problem, they wont use DPA, they won't ramp up testing everywhere, it's just incredible really. Instead, they want to start up the economy ASAP, not realizing once people's loved ones start dropping dead the economy will crumble because the population will be in fear that they could roll that unlucky number. It's just asinine.

I don’t see it that way at all.

I think you meant to say, “I don’t agree with what US has done so far.”

[Swish1906]

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