Post-Mortem: 2021-22 Milwaukee Bucks

[Raptaz]

they do have the best starting 5 when KM comes back from injury.

Bud is questionable for me tho.

[CharityStripe34]

I can see them flipping Lopez this season as he's expiring. They're going to look to retool the role-players and run it back with the same Top Three core.

My only concern is finding some youth/athleticism on the wings as it' was kind of annoying seeing a supernova like Gianni being flanked by unathletic older veterans.

Also no chance in hell they could land Lillard (despite Dame's tweet) without shipping out Middleton. Freak wont go for that as they are very close.

[SinceGatlingWasARookie]

No Middleton = not as good as Celtics

End of story.
Not that complicated.
Bucks we’re still good without Middleton but the Celtics had the better collection of healthy talent.

[mediocrityrules]

The Bucks will be fine and will continue to remain in the mix so long as they have Giannis leading the way. We started to see some cracks this year which reminded me of how the big 3 Heat looked towards the end of their run in 2014. The Bucks finished as the 14th ranked defense this season, I believe the only team to win a title in the last 30 years without a top 10 defense was the 2018 Warriors.

It’ll be interesting to see where they go moving forward with their front court. The PJ role was never really filled, Brook is getting older and hasn’t looked the same since his surgery, and Portis I guess will likely opt out and want more money than the MLE that the Bucks can offer? Big offseason coming up.

The Bucks lack of defense this season was almost solely due to Lopez missing almost the entirety of it. As soon as he came back the Bucks had the #1 defense from that point on. He's also had nearly a full season of rest, so i don't see why that doesn't help him come back strong next season, as he's just missed a full season of wear and tear on the body.

[vinnymate]

The Bucks will be fine and will continue to remain in the mix so long as they have Giannis leading the way. We started to see some cracks this year which reminded me of how the big 3 Heat looked towards the end of their run in 2014. The Bucks finished as the 14th ranked defense this season, I believe the only team to win a title in the last 30 years without a top 10 defense was the 2018 Warriors.

It’ll be interesting to see where they go moving forward with their front court. The PJ role was never really filled, Brook is getting older and hasn’t looked the same since his surgery, and Portis I guess will likely opt out and want more money than the MLE that the Bucks can offer? Big offseason coming up.

The Bucks lack of defense this season was almost solely due to Lopez missing almost the entirety of it. As soon as he came back the Bucks had the #1 defense from that point on. He's also had nearly a full season of rest, so i don't see why that doesn't help him come back strong next season, as he's just missed a full season of wear and tear on the body.

#1 defense that gets exploited in the playoffs by good teams.

Lopez IMO was unplayable multiple games this series due to drop defense scheme, yet Bud persisted. If a trade is available for a more mobile forward, ideally one that can shoot I would take it. But understood there is a lack of option and easier said than done.

However it is likely that Bud has a say in personnel moves, so Lopez being traded is probably out of the question.

[th87]

The Bucks will be fine and will continue to remain in the mix so long as they have Giannis leading the way. We started to see some cracks this year which reminded me of how the big 3 Heat looked towards the end of their run in 2014. The Bucks finished as the 14th ranked defense this season, I believe the only team to win a title in the last 30 years without a top 10 defense was the 2018 Warriors.

It’ll be interesting to see where they go moving forward with their front court. The PJ role was never really filled, Brook is getting older and hasn’t looked the same since his surgery, and Portis I guess will likely opt out and want more money than the MLE that the Bucks can offer? Big offseason coming up.

The Bucks lack of defense this season was almost solely due to Lopez missing almost the entirety of it. As soon as he came back the Bucks had the #1 defense from that point on. He's also had nearly a full season of rest, so i don't see why that doesn't help him come back strong next season, as he's just missed a full season of wear and tear on the body.

#1 defense that gets exploited in the playoffs by good teams.

Lopez IMO was unplayable multiple games this series due to drop defense scheme, yet Bud persisted. If a trade is available for a more mobile forward, ideally one that can shoot I would take it. But understood there is a lack of option and easier said than done.

However it is likely that Bud has a say in personnel moves, so Lopez being traded is probably out of the question.

This. Net ratings and defensive rankings are irrelevant in the playoffs. All comes down to versatility and adjustments.

[sp6r=underrated]

GM: Keep
Coach: Keep
Relative to expectations, how did they fare this year? Depends on how Boston does. IF Boston wins the title losing in 7 to the eventual champs is a completely reasonable outcome for a normal non-ATG title contender.
Rising, falling, or treadmill? Championship Contention Treadmill. They've been here for 4 years
If you were in charge, what would you do this offseason? Probably need to do some slight tinkering but there is no need for massive changes.

[sp6r=underrated]

#1 defense that gets exploited in the playoffs by good teams.

Milwaukee RS DRTG: 111.8
Boston RS ORTG: 114.4
Boston Expected ORTG: 113.1


Boston ORTG vs Milwaukee: 109.8

Where is the exploitation? Their defense performed 3.3 points better than they should have based on RS data. Milwaukee's defense considerably over-performed vs Boston.

[Pachinko_]

Bucks D was brilliant, I wouldn't change anything. 102.8 defensive rating in the playoffs, who's D was better than that?
And it would be even better with Middleton to match the Tatum/Brown length a little bit, without him we were just too short at the wing sometimes and had to try all sorts of failed experiments with Hill/Allen on Tatum and Brown, and they were just shooting over them.

You guys make it sound like the drop coverage is the Bucks permanent D ,but it's not, they do it mainly when Lopez is in and even then not always. If you pay attention, in those playoffs the Bucks played almost every defense known to man with many variations. And the drop is not just about open 3's, it also has benefits that everyone forgets to mention, ie it allows you to keep a giant defender in the game and take away the paint entirely. There is value to that, it's a strategic tradeoff that sometimes works and sometimes doesn't, just like any other D.

[vinnymate]

#1 defense that gets exploited in the playoffs by good teams.

Milwaukee RS DRTG: 111.8
Boston RS ORTG: 114.4
Boston Expected ORTG: 113.1


Boston ORTG vs Milwaukee: 109.8

Where is the exploitation? Their defense performed 3.3 points better than they should have based on RS data. Milwaukee's defense considerably over-performed vs Boston.

I'm talking about playoffs

[sp6r=underrated]

#1 defense that gets exploited in the playoffs by good teams.

Milwaukee RS DRTG: 111.8
Boston RS ORTG: 114.4
Boston Expected ORTG: 113.1


Boston ORTG vs Milwaukee: 109.8

Where is the exploitation? Their defense performed 3.3 points better than they should have based on RS data. Milwaukee's defense considerably over-performed vs Boston.

I'm talking about playoffs

I just showed the numbers they caused Boston to significantly underperform offensively.

Boston should have had a 113 ORT they were at 109.8, That is a great defensive performance.

They lost the series because their offense didn't perform. They have no problem defensively

[vinnymate]

Bucks D was brilliant, I wouldn't change anything. 102.8 defensive rating in the playoffs, who's D was better than that?
And it would be even better with Middleton to match the Tatum/Brown length a little bit, without him we were just too short at the wing sometimes and had to try all sorts of failed experiments with Hill/Allen on Tatum and Brown, and they were just shooting over them.

You guys make it sound like the drop coverage is the Bucks permanent D ,but it's not, they do it mainly when Lopez is in and even then not always. If you pay attention, in those playoffs the Bucks played almost every defense known to man with many variations. And the drop is not just about open 3's, it also has benefits that everyone forgets to mention, ie it allows you to keep a giant defender in the game and take away the paint entirely. There is value to that, it's a strategic tradeoff that sometimes works and sometimes doesn't, just like any other D.

I'm referring to good teams. Bulls aren't a good team.

In the second round the Bucks defensive rating was 108.8, which is 5th out of 8. Boston was number 1 at 99.7.

Well fair it's not the permanent D, but its the preferred D and is heavily used. Yes maybe the personnel wasn't there, but I'm positive Bud would of still gone to it heavily, just based on his stubbornness and track record. Yes the Boston struggled to score in the paint, but you leave a team like that open from 3 they will hit their 3s. It's a system that becomes less and less effective in the modern era and especially in the playoffs. When you have good teams that know how to exploit it. Multiple 40%+ shooters throughout the roster on the Celtics side left wide open will hit them.

It should of been clear after a game or two that they need to move away from that strategy. Insistence on playing Brook Lopez good minutes shows that Bud was still using that as his preferred scheme. Lopez should of had his minutes minimised if they weren't going to use size advantage offensively.

Despite Middleton out, i felt like Bucks had a very good chance of winning the series with better scheming. Also not just pointing to the the defense, but also the offense was an issue. Khris would of helped for sure, but scheme wise was very stagnant offense. You need all the advantages you can get whether on offense or defense.

[Pachinko_]

I'm referring to good teams. Bulls aren't a good team.

Bulls is a playoff team ie above average

But I wasn't responding to you as such, but to everyone who used the regular season to say that the Bucks D was average. Regular season is irrelevant for this kind of teams, their RS goal is more to survive it and get out of it as healthy and rested as possible rather than actually play it.

[sp6r=underrated]

I'm referring to good teams. Bulls aren't a good team.

In the second round the Bucks defensive rating was 108.8, which is 5th out of 8. Boston was number 1 at 99.7.

You do realize even by judging their defense entirerly on the basis of 1 series the Bucks DRTG grades out fine. Boston had a 114.4 ORTG in the RS and 121.9 in the 1st round.

Milwaukee holding Boston to 108.8 is a great performance. They lost that series on the offensive end. Talking about their defense is a total waste of time.

[Lalouie]

make sure khris is healthy

[Lalouie]

i'm pretty damn sure teammates and everyone in the org is thinking "if only khris hadn't been injured"

so this is all silly

[rate_]

Bucks D was brilliant, I wouldn't change anything. 102.8 defensive rating in the playoffs, who's D was better than that?

Miami held:
- 2nd ranked Hawks' offense to 104.1 ORTG
- 8th ranked Sixers' offense (since Harden debut) to 105 ORTG
- 9th ranked Celtics' offense to 108.1 ORTG

Milwaukee held:
- 13th ranked Bulls' offense to 94.4 ORTG
- 9th ranked Celtics' offense to 108.8 ORTG

Miami faced much better offensive teams so I'd argue they were better.

[Pachinko_]

Bucks D was brilliant, I wouldn't change anything. 102.8 defensive rating in the playoffs, who's D was better than that?

Miami held:
- 2nd ranked Hawks' offense to 104.1 ORTG
- 8th ranked Sixers' offense (since Harden debut) to 105 ORTG
- 9th ranked Celtics' offense to 108.1 ORTG

Milwaukee held:
- 13th ranked Bulls' offense to 94.4 ORTG
- 9th ranked Celtics' offense to 108.8 ORTG

Miami faced much better offensive teams so I'd argue they were better.

Is that from one game?
Anyway yea it's there or thereabouts, the point is the Bucks D was up there with the best of them even though the lack of Khris created some unbalanced matchups in that Cs series with their tall wings. Connaughton/Mathews/Hill and especially Allen were just too small for Tatum and Brown. Not that Khris is a great stopper or anything but considering how the series went even small differences in matchups actually mattered.

Bucks D was good, transition offense was as deadly as ever, it's the half court offense that didn't hold because that is really Middleton's specialty. To cover his absence Giannis did his best to be a half court menace which went well overall, we made Jrue a full time shot creator which went ok-ish for the most part, but it was not enough, so we also had to force some role players to take contested 3s and create, and that's where things fell apart. They're just not that type of player at that level.

[skones]

#1 defense that gets exploited in the playoffs by good teams.

Lopez IMO was unplayable multiple games this series due to drop defense scheme, yet Bud persisted. If a trade is available for a more mobile forward, ideally one that can shoot I would take it. But understood there is a lack of option and easier said than done.

However it is likely that Bud has a say in personnel moves, so Lopez being traded is probably out of the question.

Did you even watch the series? That's a legitimate question. If you honestly watched that series and saw either team "exploited" on that end of the floor, well, those must've been some really thick "look at the sun during an eclipse' shades. Both teams slugged it out on that end of the floor. Boston had better shot makers on the other end. That's where the defensive attention Middleton would garner would come into play. Without a player like him, the defense doesn't warp to the same degree, the accustomed positioning for shots is different, and Milwaukee struggled to knock them down/get enough space to be comfortable.

[skones]

Bucks D was brilliant, I wouldn't change anything. 102.8 defensive rating in the playoffs, who's D was better than that?

Miami held:
- 2nd ranked Hawks' offense to 104.1 ORTG
- 8th ranked Sixers' offense (since Harden debut) to 105 ORTG
- 9th ranked Celtics' offense to 108.1 ORTG

Milwaukee held:
- 13th ranked Bulls' offense to 94.4 ORTG
- 9th ranked Celtics' offense to 108.8 ORTG

Miami faced much better offensive teams so I'd argue they were better.

Are we going to talk about the Celtics 121.7 ORTG since they were 24-24 or are we going to be subjective and put blinders on because it helps our case more and we're being dishonest? This is where picking and choosing splits makes inconsistency and ultimately moving goal posts.

James Harden's first game in a Philly uniform was on 2-25 btw. That Boston sample is from 1-23. Feel free to argue a smaller sample size too.