Rookie Discussion Thread

[Promezclan]

After the All-Star break, the rookies are a bit settled, and the noise starts to settle down - here's how they did:

Per 36 minute stats post-ASG

Big Men:
KA Towns: 20.9, 11.1, 3.0, 1.4 blk, 58.1 TS%, 21.9 PER (35.7 mpg)
Jokic: 15.7, 13.1, 4.8, 1,1 blk, 1.5 stl, 56.8 TS%, 21.4 PER (24.6 mpg)
Porzingis: 19.1, 7.7, 1.9, 2.0 blk, 50.8 TS%, 16.8 PER (29 mpg)
WCS: 12.9, 8.0, 1.2, 1.4 blk, 1.2 stl, 56.1 TS%, 15.3 PER (22.8 mpg)
Mi. Turner: 15.2 8.7, 2.5, 1.2 blk, 50.8 ,TS% 13.4 PER (25.5 mpg)
F Kaminsky: 12.7, 7.7, 1.6, 1.0 blk, 53.3 TS%, 13.3 PER (20,4 mpg)

BOBAN: 17.4, 12.0, 1.0, 1.4 blk, 24.0 PER, 65.5 TS% (10.7 mpg)

Guards:
D. Russell: 17.8, 3.6, 3.9, 1.3 stl, 51.4 TS%, 13.6 PER (30.6 mpg)
E. Mudiay: 17.4, 4.3, 5.7, 0.9 stl, 47.8 TS%, 12.3 PER (30.7 mpg)
D. Booker: 19.5 3.0, 4.2, 0.7 stl, 50.3 TS%, 11.9 PER (35.3 mpg)
M Hezonja: 11.6, 4.6, 3.0, 1.5 stl, 53.0 TS%, 9.8 PER (22.2 mpg)

Swingmen:
Powell: 15.2, 5.4, 1.5, 1.2 stl, 60.5 TS%, 16.1 PER (22.8 mpg)
T. Lyles: 17.6, 7.2, 1.6, 1.0 stl, 54.7 TS%, 15.6 PER (17.5 mpg)
Winslow: 9.3, 6.4, 2.2, 1.3 stl, 48.4 TS%, 10.2 PER (30.1 mpg)
Johnson: 9.5, 7.3, 2.7, 1.5 stl, 40.3 TS%, 5.7 PER (20.6 mpg)

While the big men continued to dominate (even with Okafor mostly out), after very jittery beginnings, three guards all had solid second halves, with fairly similar production.

[IAmTheBest]

Those are apples and oranges. And while numbers can be fun, it's ultimately about winning basketball games and Trey Lyles has been doing more to contribute to winning basketball games than Booker has by a large margin. In fact, there's only a couple other rooks who can compare to what he's doing right now in that respect.

Which is all not to say that Book isn't great, because he is. I think he's going to be good, but the excitement about him becoming a future star is premature. He could get there, but what he's doing right now is not an indicator of that.

So by that same logic, would you take Lyles over Towns as well? You said Booker's team is 3rd worst in the league, well Towns team is 5th worst in the league. So then he isn't playing "winning basketball" either right? And nothing that Towns has done this season is an indicator of him being a star either right since you know, his team is also very bad?

Don't get me wrong. I'm not even making the case that I would put Lyles solidly in front of Booker. My statement before was that I would put Lyles, Booker and Turner on the same approximate plane, below Towns, Porzingis and Russell for sure and perhaps Okafor and Mudiay (depending on how you evaluate their performances thus far).

Booker showed some great stuff earlier in the season with his ability to space the floor and attack closeouts as a secondary or tertiary offensive weapon. That is much more indicative of what I think he will be long term. As good as he's looked at times running the pick and roll and creating offense, the numbers are not just bad, they are terrible.

Players that accumulate big numbers with low efficiency on teams that are eliminated from the playoffs have almost zero correlation with future performance in real games. Towns has been putting up big numbers with great efficiency all season. Therein lies the difference. He has shown every indication that he can carry become a primary weapon on a winning team through 1) his own improvement and 2) the improvement of the roster around him.

This isn't an exact science and there are many factors to consider. Lyles hasn't had eye popping numbers, but he has had success and produced efficiently for a team that is playing for something. He's also done this in the same type of role he will be expected to fill in the future, which is NOT the case for Booker. After this season, Book will likely return to his role as a shooter and secondary ball handler.

Does that make sense?

No - it doesnt make sense.

Booker is a tier above Lyles. Booker doesnt have the luxury of playing with the same kind of talent as Lyles and therefore commands more defensive pressure. Booker is a 19 year old guard while Lyles is a 20 year old bigman. Booker is more than a full year younger than Lyles in a league where the learning curve is far steeper for guards than it is for bigmen. On top of this Booker has played 2100 minutes to Lyles' 1300 minutes.

Taking all of these extremely important aspects into account, it is clear that Booker has easily had the superior year and is the better prospect. Booker has far more potential and you have to be nuts to consider picking Lyles over Booker

[guille_4]

Karl-Anthony Towns finishes the season with a 28 point, 14 rebound, 3 assist, and 2 block performance.

For the season...

1503 Points
54.25% Field Goal Percentage
34% Three Point Percentage
81% Free Throw Percentage
855 Rebounds
161 Assists
138 Blocks
58 Steals
1 Skills Challenge Award
1 Rookie of the Year Award

For the record, Karl-Anthony Towns is one of three players to do this. The other two are Shaquille O'Neal and Tim Duncan.

Pretty impressive, although I'm not a huge fan of hand-picking stats to make a player look good.

KAT's rookie season has been fantastic but it's probably closer to Pau Gasol's than Shaq's or Duncan's.

[iamworthy]

After the All-Star break, the rookies are a bit settled, and the noise starts to settle down - here's how they did:

Per 36 minute stats post-ASG

Big Men:
KA Towns: 20.9, 11.1, 3.0, 1.4 blk, 58.1 TS%, 21.9 PER (35.7 mpg)
Jokic: 15.7, 13.1, 4.8, 1,1 blk, 1.5 stl, 56.8 TS%, 21.4 PER (24.6 mpg)
Porzingis: 19.1, 7.7, 1.9, 2.0 blk, 50.8 TS%, 16.8 PER (29 mpg)
WCS: 12.9, 8.0, 1.2, 1.4 blk, 1.2 stl, 56.1 TS%, 15.3 PER (22.8 mpg)
Mi. Turner: 15.2 8.7, 2.5, 1.2 blk, 50.8 ,TS% 13.4 PER (25.5 mpg)
F Kaminsky: 12.7, 7.7, 1.6, 1.0 blk, 53.3 TS%, 13.3 PER (20,4 mpg)

BOBAN: 17.4, 12.0, 1.0, 1.4 blk, 24.0 PER, 65.5 TS% (10.7 mpg)

Guards:
D. Russell: 17.8, 3.6, 3.9, 1.3 stl, 51.4 TS%, 13.6 PER (30.6 mpg)
E. Mudiay: 17.4, 4.3, 5.7, 0.9 stl, 47.8 TS%, 12.3 PER (30.7 mpg)
D. Booker: 19.5 3.0, 4.2, 0.7 stl, 50.3 TS%, 11.9 PER (35.3 mpg)
M Hezonja: 11.6, 4.6, 3.0, 1.5 stl, 53.0 TS%, 9.8 PER (22.2 mpg)

Swingmen:
Powell: 15.2, 5.4, 1.5, 1.2 stl, 60.5 TS%, 16.1 PER (22.8 mpg)
T. Lyles: 17.6, 7.2, 1.6, 1.0 stl, 54.7 TS%, 15.6 PER (17.5 mpg)
Winslow: 9.3, 6.4, 2.2, 1.3 stl, 48.4 TS%, 10.2 PER (30.1 mpg)
Johnson: 9.5, 7.3, 2.7, 1.5 stl, 40.3 TS%, 5.7 PER (20.6 mpg)

While the big men continued to dominate (even with Okafor mostly out), after very jittery beginnings, three guards all had solid second halves, with fairly similar production.

Pretty good from Russell considering the circumstances.

[duppyy]

So by that same logic, would you take Lyles over Towns as well? You said Booker's team is 3rd worst in the league, well Towns team is 5th worst in the league. So then he isn't playing "winning basketball" either right? And nothing that Towns has done this season is an indicator of him being a star either right since you know, his team is also very bad?

Don't get me wrong. I'm not even making the case that I would put Lyles solidly in front of Booker. My statement before was that I would put Lyles, Booker and Turner on the same approximate plane, below Towns, Porzingis and Russell for sure and perhaps Okafor and Mudiay (depending on how you evaluate their performances thus far).

Booker showed some great stuff earlier in the season with his ability to space the floor and attack closeouts as a secondary or tertiary offensive weapon. That is much more indicative of what I think he will be long term. As good as he's looked at times running the pick and roll and creating offense, the numbers are not just bad, they are terrible.

Players that accumulate big numbers with low efficiency on teams that are eliminated from the playoffs have almost zero correlation with future performance in real games. Towns has been putting up big numbers with great efficiency all season. Therein lies the difference. He has shown every indication that he can carry become a primary weapon on a winning team through 1) his own improvement and 2) the improvement of the roster around him.

This isn't an exact science and there are many factors to consider. Lyles hasn't had eye popping numbers, but he has had success and produced efficiently for a team that is playing for something. He's also done this in the same type of role he will be expected to fill in the future, which is NOT the case for Booker. After this season, Book will likely return to his role as a shooter and secondary ball handler.

Does that make sense?

No - it doesnt make sense.

Booker is a tier above Lyles. Booker doesnt have the luxury of playing with the same kind of talent as Lyles and therefore commands more defensive pressure. Booker is a 19 year old guard while Lyles is a 20 year old bigman. Booker is more than a full year younger than Lyles in a league where the learning curve is far steeper for guards than it is for bigmen. On top of this Booker has played 2100 minutes to Lyles' 1300 minutes.

Taking all of these extremely important aspects into account, it is clear that Booker has easily had the superior year and is the better prospect. Booker has far more potential and you have to be nuts to consider picking Lyles over Booker

Most people say Bigs take longer to develop than smaller players.

[Domejandro]

Karl-Anthony Towns finishes the season with a 28 point, 14 rebound, 3 assist, and 2 block performance.

For the season...

1503 Points
54.25% Field Goal Percentage
34% Three Point Percentage
81% Free Throw Percentage
855 Rebounds
161 Assists
138 Blocks
58 Steals
1 Skills Challenge Award
1 Rookie of the Year Award

For the record, Karl-Anthony Towns is one of three players to do this. The other two are Shaquille O'Neal and Tim Duncan.

Pretty impressive, although I'm not a huge fan of hand-picking stats to make a player look good.

KAT's rookie season has been fantastic but it's probably closer to Pau Gasol's than Shaq's or Duncan's.

Technically he is closer, but I would not call the stats hand-picked.

My cutoff was 1500 points, 850 rebounds, 125 Blocks, and 54% (the most handpicked statistic.

[HawaiianJazzFan]

So by that same logic, would you take Lyles over Towns as well? You said Booker's team is 3rd worst in the league, well Towns team is 5th worst in the league. So then he isn't playing "winning basketball" either right? And nothing that Towns has done this season is an indicator of him being a star either right since you know, his team is also very bad?

Don't get me wrong. I'm not even making the case that I would put Lyles solidly in front of Booker. My statement before was that I would put Lyles, Booker and Turner on the same approximate plane, below Towns, Porzingis and Russell for sure and perhaps Okafor and Mudiay (depending on how you evaluate their performances thus far).

Booker showed some great stuff earlier in the season with his ability to space the floor and attack closeouts as a secondary or tertiary offensive weapon. That is much more indicative of what I think he will be long term. As good as he's looked at times running the pick and roll and creating offense, the numbers are not just bad, they are terrible.

Players that accumulate big numbers with low efficiency on teams that are eliminated from the playoffs have almost zero correlation with future performance in real games. Towns has been putting up big numbers with great efficiency all season. Therein lies the difference. He has shown every indication that he can carry become a primary weapon on a winning team through 1) his own improvement and 2) the improvement of the roster around him.

This isn't an exact science and there are many factors to consider. Lyles hasn't had eye popping numbers, but he has had success and produced efficiently for a team that is playing for something. He's also done this in the same type of role he will be expected to fill in the future, which is NOT the case for Booker. After this season, Book will likely return to his role as a shooter and secondary ball handler.

Does that make sense?

No - it doesnt make sense.

Booker is a tier above Lyles. Booker doesnt have the luxury of playing with the same kind of talent as Lyles and therefore commands more defensive pressure. Booker is a 19 year old guard while Lyles is a 20 year old bigman. Booker is more than a full year younger than Lyles in a league where the learning curve is far steeper for guards than it is for bigmen. On top of this Booker has played 2100 minutes to Lyles' 1300 minutes.

Taking all of these extremely important aspects into account, it is clear that Booker has easily had the superior year and is the better prospect. Booker has far more potential and you have to be nuts to consider picking Lyles over Booker

Haha, so your argument for Booker being better is that he was on a bad team, chucked, and played a bunch of minutes???

First, bigs take longer to develop than guards and that is pretty much known across the league. Also, Booker is LESS THAN a full year younger than Lyles (October comes before November) I don't know why you needed to lie there. Lyles is 5 inches taller, can handle the ball and can pass of the dribble as a 6'10 BIG MAN... and he still shot better than Booker from 3 (38% to 34%). For a big man to come into the league and demand time in a front court that is stacked is pretty impressive. Booker essentially got to come into the games and chuck with low efficiency on a bad team, that isn't difficult to do... just as Nick Young.


Oh and for some more facts look at the post above:

D. Booker: 19.5 3.0, 4.2, 0.7 stl, 50.3 TS%, 11.9 PER (35.3 mpg)
T. Lyles: 17.6, 7.2, 1.6, 1.0 stl, 54.7 TS%, 15.6 PER (17.5 mpg)

If anything Trey was in a tougher situation because he had to fight, Hayward, Gobert, Favors and Booker for time. When Lyles started he shot 44% from three. I'm not saying that Booker is a bad player, I'd love to have him. To say he is a better prospect however isn't really possible to say at this point. Lyles potential is a non-crazy better shooting version of Lamar Odom. Odom's are pretty rare finds, especially for a front court that is dying for someone to provide space like Trey.

[guille_4]

For the record, Karl-Anthony Towns is one of three players to do this. The other two are Shaquille O'Neal and Tim Duncan.

Pretty impressive, although I'm not a huge fan of hand-picking stats to make a player look good.

KAT's rookie season has been fantastic but it's probably closer to Pau Gasol's than Shaq's or Duncan's.

Technically he is closer, but I would not call the stats hand-picked.

My cutoff was 1500 points, 850 rebounds, 125 Blocks, and 54% (the most handpicked statistic.

Fair enough.

If I had to handpick total stats for a big rookie season I'd probably go for: 1430 points, 820 rebounds, 82 blocks and 50% FG%. That's 15 PPG/10RBG/1BPG/+50% FG% in a 82 game season.

He's still in pretty good company

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&shoot_hand=&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&birth_state=&college_id=&draft_year=&is_active=&debut_yr_nba_start=&debut_yr_nba_end=&debut_yr_aba_start=&debut_yr_aba_end=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&award=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=pts&c1comp=gt&c1val=1430&c2stat=trb&c2comp=gt&c2val=820&c3stat=fg_pct&c3comp=gt&c3val=50&c4stat=blk&c4comp=gt&c4val=82&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

[JellosJigglin]

Camera skills still on point...

[Klomp]

[Marcus]

TRADE THAT SCRUB

[Domejandro]

I have said it like ten times in the past week, but I am amazed Minnesota got this guy. We were bound for good luck some time, but he is just so good.

[kieferli]

Norman Powell is goat guy
watch out for this kid

3 games without derozan
24.7/6/3.7
1 steal 2.3 turnovers
19/27 from the line
59% fg
9/12 from 3

The biggest steal from last year draft . How many second round rookie can start with top team. He earn a lot of trust from the coach . He will be better than DD in 1 or 2 years

[kieferli]

By the way Norman Powell also is eastern conference Rookies of the Month for April . And he is second round pick

[erudite23]

No - it doesnt make sense.

Booker is a tier above Lyles. Booker doesnt have the luxury of playing with the same kind of talent as Lyles and therefore commands more defensive pressure. Booker is a 19 year old guard while Lyles is a 20 year old bigman. Booker is more than a full year younger than Lyles in a league where the learning curve is far steeper for guards than it is for bigmen. On top of this Booker has played 2100 minutes to Lyles' 1300 minutes.

Taking all of these extremely important aspects into account, it is clear that Booker has easily had the superior year and is the better prospect. Booker has far more potential and you have to be nuts to consider picking Lyles over Booker

Haha, so your argument for Booker being better is that he was on a bad team, chucked, and played a bunch of minutes???

First, bigs take longer to develop than guards and that is pretty much known across the league. Also, Booker is LESS THAN a full year younger than Lyles (October comes before November) I don't know why you needed to lie there. Lyles is 5 inches taller, can handle the ball and can pass of the dribble as a 6'10 BIG MAN... and he still shot better than Booker from 3 (38% to 34%). For a big man to come into the league and demand time in a front court that is stacked is pretty impressive. Booker essentially got to come into the games and chuck with low efficiency on a bad team, that isn't difficult to do... just as Nick Young.


Oh and for some more facts look at the post above:

D. Booker: 19.5 3.0, 4.2, 0.7 stl, 50.3 TS%, 11.9 PER (35.3 mpg)
T. Lyles: 17.6, 7.2, 1.6, 1.0 stl, 54.7 TS%, 15.6 PER (17.5 mpg)

If anything Trey was in a tougher situation because he had to fight, Hayward, Gobert, Favors and Booker for time. When Lyles started he shot 44% from three. I'm not saying that Booker is a bad player, I'd love to have him. To say he is a better prospect however isn't really possible to say at this point. Lyles potential is a non-crazy better shooting version of Lamar Odom. Odom's are pretty rare finds, especially for a front court that is dying for someone to provide space like Trey.

Great post!


Remember when Philly fans were proclaiming MCW as the next Magic Johnson? One of the most overrated player archetypes is the young gunner who scores a lot of points at a low efficiency, particularly on a lottery bound team. Booker checks all those boxes.

Was it nice to see that he could run some pick and roll and keep the team semi-competitive as a primary option? Sure, that's great. But it doesn't translate to winning games in the future in any way.

When are people going to start understanding this?

[HawaiianJazzFan]

I have said it like ten times in the past week, but I am amazed Minnesota got this guy. We were bound for good luck some time, but he is just so good.

It's scary to think that Minnesota was as bad record wise as they were this year, which means they get ANOTHER top 5 draft pick, they are going to be ridiculously scary if they stay healthy.

[theGreatRC]

Really proud of Norman Powell. Played ball with his dad here in San Diego and we'd talk about Norman all the time, he was always around the West coast playing in tournaments or training when he wasn't playing at Lincoln. His dad honestly just laughed at the idea of him being drafted while he was at UCLA and this kid just won rookie of the month..so sick.

[CoreyGallagher]

Remember when Philly fans were proclaiming MCW as the next Magic Johnson?

I don't. Regardless, MCW's rookie season warranted some excitement imo.


Edit - Removed rest of post to not steer conversation away from this season's rookies. I'd at least recommend checking out MCW's efficiency and productivity metrics his rookie season (PER, since that was listed, BPM, VORP).

[gaspar]

Spoiler:

Don't get me wrong. I'm not even making the case that I would put Lyles solidly in front of Booker. My statement before was that I would put Lyles, Booker and Turner on the same approximate plane, below Towns, Porzingis and Russell for sure and perhaps Okafor and Mudiay (depending on how you evaluate their performances thus far).

Booker showed some great stuff earlier in the season with his ability to space the floor and attack closeouts as a secondary or tertiary offensive weapon. That is much more indicative of what I think he will be long term. As good as he's looked at times running the pick and roll and creating offense, the numbers are not just bad, they are terrible.

Players that accumulate big numbers with low efficiency on teams that are eliminated from the playoffs have almost zero correlation with future performance in real games. Towns has been putting up big numbers with great efficiency all season. Therein lies the difference. He has shown every indication that he can carry become a primary weapon on a winning team through 1) his own improvement and 2) the improvement of the roster around him.

This isn't an exact science and there are many factors to consider. Lyles hasn't had eye popping numbers, but he has had success and produced efficiently for a team that is playing for something. He's also done this in the same type of role he will be expected to fill in the future, which is NOT the case for Booker. After this season, Book will likely return to his role as a shooter and secondary ball handler.

Does that make sense?

No - it doesnt make sense.

Booker is a tier above Lyles. Booker doesnt have the luxury of playing with the same kind of talent as Lyles and therefore commands more defensive pressure. Booker is a 19 year old guard while Lyles is a 20 year old bigman. Booker is more than a full year younger than Lyles in a league where the learning curve is far steeper for guards than it is for bigmen. On top of this Booker has played 2100 minutes to Lyles' 1300 minutes.

Taking all of these extremely important aspects into account, it is clear that Booker has easily had the superior year and is the better prospect. Booker has far more potential and you have to be nuts to consider picking Lyles over Booker

Haha, so your argument for Booker being better is that he was on a bad team, chucked, and played a bunch of minutes???

First, bigs take longer to develop than guards and that is pretty much known across the league. Also, Booker is LESS THAN a full year younger than Lyles (October comes before November) I don't know why you needed to lie there. Lyles is 5 inches taller, can handle the ball and can pass of the dribble as a 6'10 BIG MAN... and he still shot better than Booker from 3 (38% to 34%). For a big man to come into the league and demand time in a front court that is stacked is pretty impressive. Booker essentially got to come into the games and chuck with low efficiency on a bad team, that isn't difficult to do... just as Nick Young.


Oh and for some more facts look at the post above:

D. Booker: 19.5 3.0, 4.2, 0.7 stl, 50.3 TS%, 11.9 PER (35.3 mpg)
T. Lyles: 17.6, 7.2, 1.6, 1.0 stl, 54.7 TS%, 15.6 PER (17.5 mpg)

If anything Trey was in a tougher situation because he had to fight, Hayward, Gobert, Favors and Booker for time. When Lyles started he shot 44% from three. I'm not saying that Booker is a bad player, I'd love to have him. To say he is a better prospect however isn't really possible to say at this point. Lyles potential is a non-crazy better shooting version of Lamar Odom. Odom's are pretty rare finds, especially for a front court that is dying for someone to provide space like Trey.

Low efficiency?

Booker .535 TS%
Lyles .517% TS%
rookie Durant .519 TS%
rookie LeBron .488 TS%

Booker's decision making and shot selection are his biggest strengths. His %'s went down only when he was asked to carry a lineup with zero offensive power and was forced to take a lot of difficult shots. The Suns starting lineup in the 2nd half of the season was mostly Booker + Price/Tucker/Len/Chandler. Those 4 guys averaged 29 pts/g last season. When Booker had the same role as Lyles in Utah i.e. stand in the corner and shoot open threes his efficiency was off the charts: .588, .582 and .568 TS% in November, December and January. Oh and this low efficiency chucker was somehow significantly more efficient at rim on a higher volume than Lamar Odom 2.0 - .641 FG% to .573 FG%.

And here is my handpicked stat of the day: list of teenage rookies to average 13+ pts/g on .530+ TS% in 2000+ minutes:

[Peja Stojakovic]

Really proud of Norman Powell. Played ball with his dad here in San Diego and we'd talk about Norman all the time, he was always around the West coast playing in tournaments or training when he wasn't playing at Lincoln. His dad honestly just laughed at the idea of him being drafted while he was at UCLA and this kid just won rookie of the month..so sick.

and now he's starting in the playoffs for a 56 win team. powell is amazing (though i have no idea how he's supposed to defend paul george)