Doctor MJ wrote:IG2 wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:Bottom line for the season is that Durant carried OKC to a better record than Miami with far less star power behind him
I don't know about "far less" star power. Wade has only played 10 more games than Westbrook this season. And I'd say his play-3-games-then-sit-out-2 routine was a much bigger drawback for Miami than Westbrook missing all of his games in one string. At least OKC was able to establish a rhythm/identity without him. Miami on the other hand never could. Anyway, with both Wade and Westbrook out, I'd say the rest of the rosters of both teams, especially when you factor in OKC's far superior defense and rebounding this season, is pretty much a toss up, with the edge maybe even on OKC's side.
Both Miami and OKC have the same win % now. I can't see Durant winning MVP if his team doesn't finish with a better record. The weaker supporting cast argument just doesn't fly, IMO. This isn't Kobe vs. LeBron of the late 00's. OKC's still a loaded team. The narrative in the media over the last few weeks had already shifted to LeBron no longer 'coasting', and the emphatic victory over OKC last week was a huge statement. Now the records are the same; so besides slightly better numbers, Durant doesn't have much going for him. The momentum is completely on LeBron's side and if Miami can finish with a better record than OKC from here on out....the MVP is his to lose.
Durant's "big 3" was Westbrook & Harden. In January he played without either, scored 35 PPG on 68% TS and finished the month with a 9 game winning streak. I'm not saying LeBron's not capable of something more impressive than that, but what he's been doing this year is not on the same planet as that, and I think voters. Heck LeBron's basically acknowledged as much.
I'll also note in general that not only is Durant way ahead of LeBron this year by every box score metric imaginable, all serious regression data says the same thing. That's not the sort of thing voters will understand, but as analysts its clear that Durant basically has the edge everywhere you can possibly look.
That's before we even get into voter fatigue. This isn't a phenomena that utterly prevents a player from winning more MVPs, but people have been ready to give Durant an MVP for a while now. A season where LeBron is clearly holding back and Durant did so much by himself is just what people need. As long as the OKC-Durant narrative doesn't clearly change by season's end, I think it will take something very dramatic for LeBron to overcome it.
Actually the media guys have already changed their minds. they think it is close now.
Stat wise Durant's been superior, no question about that, but LeBron's latest stretch has closed the gap considerably (he had a PER of 28 and now he's 29.4 and i believe he will have a 29.7 PER after tonight's game, though Durant's PER has gone to 30.6 from 31.8). LeBron's shooting % is out of this world while Durant's not shooting the ball that well (compare to his amazing month of january).
Durant's WS/48 was 0.320 at the end of january, now it's 0.311. his ORtg was 128 (first in the league) now its 123.
LeBron's WS/48 was 0.225 at the end of january, now it's 0268. his ORtg was 116 now its 121.
Durant's DRtg was 100 at the end of january, now it's 102.
LeBron's DRtg was 106 at the end of january, now it's 105.
And tonigh's game will change those number a little bit in favour of LeBron. it's clear that LeBron's closed the gap and Mia is winning, while OKC's losing. Now that Miami has a better record, it is very close.
