2013-14 MVP Discussion Thread Pt II

[EArl]

Why is Lebron such a bad ft shooter. Dude kills my fantasy team on ft's.

[James Rustles]

Why is Lebron such a bad ft shooter. Dude kills my fantasy team on ft's.

Didn't he say improving on his FT shooting was his number one goal this past offseason?

[JimBeanz]

Why is Lebron such a bad ft shooter. Dude kills my fantasy team on ft's.

Didn't he say improving on his FT shooting was his number one goal this past offseason?

He said it was one of his goals for the off-season. Unfortunately FT shooting is one of the most difficult skills to improve (ask Shaq). It's primarily dependent on one's form and that is difficult to change after 10 years in the NBA.

[SideshowBob]

Both conquered the line last season. Making a mockery out of it this year.

[JimBeanz]

Both conquered the line last season. Making a mockery out of it this year.

May I ask what the statistical significance of "the line" is?

(and where did you get the graph from?)

[SideshowBob]

Can't find the article right now, but EvanZ (he posts on here) did a few studies on USG vs. Efficiency. Actually scratch that, found one of the old articles but the chart there a bit older than the one I posted (which I've updated, albeit lazily).

The line represents the outer limit of the usage-efficiency relationship in NBA basketball. Basically, all the guys you see right around the line (Barkely, Dantley, Jordan, James pre-13, Durant pre-13, Malone) were all considered major outlier seasons at the time the study was done. They represented the pinnacle of the usage-efficiency tradeoff, the best of the best seasons. This wasn't a line to fit all seasons, it was a line to fit the outlier seasons. James and Durant though, have managed to break past even that threshold and that's an understatement. This year, they're flying well above it, on their on line.

[JimBeanz]

Can't find the article right now, but EvanZ (he posts on here) did a few studies on USG vs. Efficiency. Actually scratch that, found one of the old articles but the chart there a bit older than the one I posted (which I've updated, albeit lazily).

The line represents the outer limit of the usage-efficiency relationship in NBA basketball. Basically, all the guys you see right around the line (Barkely, Dantley, Jordan, James pre-13, Durant pre-13, Malone) were all considered major outlier seasons at the time the study was done. They represented the pinnacle of the usage-efficiency tradeoff, the best of the best seasons. This wasn't a line to fit all seasons, it was a line to fit the outlier seasons. James and Durant though, have managed to break past even that threshold and that's an understatement. This year, they're flying well above it, on their on line.

Ah, thanks! This USG/TS% stat is a very interesting metric and encapsulates nicely the rare level at which LeBron and KD play at, as well as the direction the modern NBA is heading in (a greater emphasis on efficiency).

[bondom34]

Can't find the article right now, but EvanZ (he posts on here) did a few studies on USG vs. Efficiency. Actually scratch that, found one of the old articles but the chart there a bit older than the one I posted (which I've updated, albeit lazily).

The line represents the outer limit of the usage-efficiency relationship in NBA basketball. Basically, all the guys you see right around the line (Barkely, Dantley, Jordan, James pre-13, Durant pre-13, Malone) were all considered major outlier seasons at the time the study was done. They represented the pinnacle of the usage-efficiency tradeoff, the best of the best seasons. This wasn't a line to fit all seasons, it was a line to fit the outlier seasons. James and Durant though, have managed to break past even that threshold and that's an understatement. This year, they're flying well above it, on their on line.

Ah, thanks! This USG/TS% stat is a very interesting metric and encapsulates nicely the rare level at which LeBron and KD play at, as well as the direction the modern NBA is heading in (a greater emphasis on efficiency).

Just in case, here's the original article that was from:
http://www.d3coder.com/thecity/2013/04/ ... ing-index/

[Sonny Carson]

LeBron is proving he's the best player.

But Durant has had a better season. If LeBron didnt coast early in the year....he'd be the clear favorite.

But as of now....If LeBron was avg 32/8/6.....and they tried to justify giving the MVP to Durant for putting up 27/7/6 I'd be p'od. So its only fair for Durant to be the MVP today..

Now if LeBron keeps beasting the rest of the year...

[ThePersianFreak]

KD is averaging 31.5/7.7/5.6
LeBron is averaging 27/7/6.4

LeBron's shooting 58%
KD's Shooting 51%

TS%
LeBron' 0.657
KD' 0.639

EF%
LeBron' 0.620
KD' 0.565

Their Spg and TOpg numbers are the same.

PER
KD' 30.6
LeBron' 29.5

ORtg/DRtg
LeBron' 121/104
KD' 123/102

===

Overall KD's having better numbers. LeBron should average around 28-28.5 ppg and still be as effecient as he has been to have a case against KD (stat wise). but it's getting closer. at the end of the day, if LeBron keep playing this good, and Mia have a better record they'll give it to him.

[hisairness]

I still don't see how simply a better team record would swing this award towards Lebron, unless the difference is something like 5+ more wins. It simply would be ignoring the circumstances that Miami plays in a way weaker conference ( no need to point out Miami vs. West record ppl) and impact of Westbrook injury on OKC. If voters are willing to ignore that then I don't think they deserve to vote. If Lebron's # were vastly superior and his team record was better than Durant's, I could kind of see how Westbrook narrative could be played down. It is not the case though.

[MisterHibachi]

NBA.com MVP ladder has LeBron first again: http://www.nba.com/mvp-ladder/

Over the last month, one player is scoring at a better clip than Kevin Durant, rebounding at a more prolific rate than Dwight Howard and shooting the ball better from distance than Kyle Korver (who holds the NBA record for 3-pointers made in consecutive games).

Kevin Love, not Durant, has put together a masterful stretch that stands the test of time. Yet, even with that, he's still on the opposite end of the KIA Race to the MVP Ladder spectrum from guys like Durant and LeBron James. In fact, James, the reigning MVP, has put together a month of work that trumps both of the Kevins' output.

Anyone, All-Star or not, can put together an outlandish stretch. But what James and Durant have done this season in waging an all-out battle for league supremacy, both individually and while leading their respective teams to the top of the conference and league standings, is nothing short of remarkable.

Durant went crazy in January, creating a nice bit of separation between himself and the rest of the MVP pack (including James). But LeBron has bounced back with an epic run of his own. Per Elias Sports, he is the first player since Shaquille O'Neal in 2003 to put together a calendar month (a minimum of five games) averaging 30 or more points and eight or more rebounds while shooting better than 57 percent.

Toss in LeBron's seven assists a game this month and only Wilt Chamberlain, in February of 1966, has had a run like that.

"I don't know why everyone was writing [LeBron and the Heat] off before the All-Star break," an Eastern Conference assistant general manager said via text. "KD has been ridiculous this season. He raised his game to that next level.

"But LeBron never went away. He was always right there. And when the chatter heated up about KD taking his spot, moving him out of the way for the MVP and everything, LeBron responded the way you'd expect the best player in the game to respond. It's something you'd expect from Kobe [Bryant] when someone steps on his ego a little bit, but not necessarily LeBron."

James' hot streak has come at just the right time for the Heat. Miami was on the road for basically all of February. The Heat went 19 days between home games -- a span that included the All-Star break -- and still ended the month 9-1. February is the money month in the NBA, the time when true contenders emerge.

[mihail_petkov]

This is a joke... LeBron had 4-5 good games and he is over Durant... come on...

[runlikehell]

I still don't see how simply a better team record would swing this award towards Lebron, unless the difference is something like 5+ more wins. It simply would be ignoring the circumstances that Miami plays in a way weaker conference ( no need to point out Miami vs. West record ppl) and impact of Westbrook injury on OKC. If voters are willing to ignore that then I don't think they deserve to vote. If Lebron's # were vastly superior and his team record was better than Durant's, I could kind of see how Westbrook narrative could be played down. It is not the case though.

I'll bring it up anyways: Miami is 42-9 against the west this season and last season combined, including 17-4 this season. Miami dominates the west. Most of their losses are against bad teams.

The Westbrook narrative? OKC is 0-3 since he came back and a lot of people are blaming him for it. Westbrook being out HELPED Durant get the lead in the mvp race, in the sense that he wouldn't put up the numbers he did with Westbrook playing. He comes back and they're losing games, how does that help the narrative that Durant carried the Thunder without him when they're playing worse with him? If Westbrook came back and they were dominating their opponents it would be different but that's not the case.

And I love how at first, people were saying that there was no way Lebron could win it if the Thunder had a better record and now that it looks like the Heat could finish with a better record, all of a sudden we need to finish with 5 more wins? lol !

I do still have Durant leading the race but with the Heat trending up and the Thunder trending down lately, that could change anyday.

[infinite11285]

This is a joke... LeBron had 4-5 good games and he is over Durant... come on...

It's not just 4-5 games, LeBron had a very good February in which the Heat now have a better record than the Thunder. Meanwhile, Durant is on a 3 game losing streak and just 5-5 the last 10 games.

[runlikehell]

This is a joke... LeBron had 4-5 good games and he is over Durant... come on...

Kinda how Durant had an amazing month when Lebron was still on cruise control and all of a sudden a lot of people were saying he was the better player.

[ThePersianFreak]

4-5 good games?!

"Per Elias Sports, he is the first player since Shaquille O'Neal in 2003 to put together a calendar month (a minimum of five games) averaging 30 or more points and eight or more rebounds while shooting better than 57 percent.

Toss in LeBron's seven assists a game this month and only Wilt Chamberlain, in February of 1966, has had a run like that"

Yeah, 4-5 good games! LOL!

[hisairness]

I still don't see how simply a better team record would swing this award towards Lebron, unless the difference is something like 5+ more wins. It simply would be ignoring the circumstances that Miami plays in a way weaker conference ( no need to point out Miami vs. West record ppl) and impact of Westbrook injury on OKC. If voters are willing to ignore that then I don't think they deserve to vote. If Lebron's # were vastly superior and his team record was better than Durant's, I could kind of see how Westbrook narrative could be played down. It is not the case though.

I'll bring it up anyways: Miami is 42-9 against the west this season and last season combined, including 17-4 this season. Miami dominates the west. Most of their losses are against bad teams.

The Westbrook narrative? OKC is 0-3 since he came back and a lot of people are blaming him for it. Westbrook being out HELPED Durant get the lead in the mvp race, in the sense that he wouldn't put up the numbers he did with Westbrook playing. He comes back and they're losing games, how does that help the narrative that Durant carried the Thunder without him when they're playing worse with him? If Westbrook came back and they were dominating their opponents it would be different but that's not the case.

And I love how at first, people were saying that there was no way Lebron could win it if the Thunder had a better record and now that it looks like the Heat could finish with a better record, all of a sudden we need to finish with 5 more wins? lol !

I do still have Durant leading the race but with the Heat trending up and the Thunder trending down lately, that could change anyday.

I said I dont need the numbers since the point stands that they play West teams twice a year and crap teams that make up majority of East conference 4 times. No way I'll ignore that factor.

I remember Heat fans laughing at the sample size when someone mentioned Heat are 2-0 without Lebron, but here you are waving OKC 0-3 record since Westbrook came back as it is actually relevant. Thunder were 21-4 with him before he went down again; he helps, not hurts the team. To suggest otherwise is just plain silly. A huge usage player comes back after weeks of absence and you think it won't affect the chemistry of a team that learned to play without him? Plz

So Westbrook's absence helped Durant's numbers? It sure did but he put up the numbers while at the same time leading his team to the best record in the league. Many monster and clutch performances during that stretch.Winning part is what mostly comprises Westbrook narrative.

Again, point stands. If Heat finish with a worst record than OKC, when you include Westbrook absence and West-East thing, Lebron won't win the MVP. Simple as that. IMO, even if he had better numbers he would still finish second to Durant if that happened.
5 game lead is just my own estimate, no need to generalize and pretend like it's the new trending thing to justify Miami's better record.

[James Rustles]

4-5 good games?!

"Per Elias Sports, he is the first player since Shaquille O'Neal in 2003 to put together a calendar month (a minimum of five games) averaging 30 or more points and eight or more rebounds while shooting better than 57 percent.

Toss in LeBron's seven assists a game this month and only Wilt Chamberlain, in February of 1966, has had a run like that"

Yeah, 4-5 good games! LOL!

57%? Such an arbitrary number

[Antrim]

You really got to feel sorry for Durant.

The guy has had a season out of this world, maybe top 10-15 historically, and his team is #1 in his conference.

And still, there's a good chance he is about to lose to the same guy for the FORTH time.