2016-17 Rookie Watch thread

[DrWood]

I watch the games. Brogdon plays with a superstar, and a team with good players from top to bottom. Saric plays with scrubs, and they still win games.

You guys are acting like he's terribly inefficient and just scoring by default. His efficiency has been one of the best aspects of his game since about January.

The real question is: What would Brogdon do on this Philly team? In my opinion, he'd be no better then TJ Mccconell.

Then you don't know what you're talking about, and your opinion on Brogdon doesn't mean a whole lot.

That's fine. But he isn't winning Rookie of the Year, IMO. So. Yeah.

Ask all the coaches in the league, their entire fanbases- and the commentators who watch every game and I guarantee you 90% of everybody says they'd have Dario Saric over Malcom Brogdon.

How much money do you have to bet on that?
he has a 97 Offensive rating for god's sake.

[Prez]

I like Brogdon and I think he will be a really solid player in this league but I dont get this notion that what he is doing is more impressive because of higher efficiency. It is pretty obvious that will be the case when you are playing with a team stacked with talent instead of playing with a team where all talent is sidelined because of injuries. And it is not like Saric putting up empty stats considering how often they win.

It's funny how the narrative changes now that the Bucks are winning and Brogdon is a huge part of that. The Bucks are starting Tony Snell and Thon Maker alongside him, a guy given up on by his previous team and a raw rookie project player. But now that Brogdon is an impact player from day 1 and has saved the Bucks season with his immediate contributions, the Bucks are apparently stacked with talent.

[King-]

Put Brogdon on the Sixers, and he'd look no different then their starting point guard now.

Cmon man.
I think that Saric is ROTY too and i would love to have him on my team.
But Brogdon is amazing as well.
You won't find any other player on this draft class so solid when it really matters. He hasn't hit any rookie walls, he has been consistent all season long.
For a guy who is not considered a guy you should lock if you want to win(like everybody are doing against the sixers with saric since embiid is off), his impact is really significant for a winning team.
He is clutch, he is a great shooter(best rookie by far at 3s), he can pass(leads the bucks in the last games), he can defend.
That's a 2 way type of player. One more for the bucks after giannis and middleton. That's how you build a core.
With a guy who was selected at the 2nd round.

I don't know, man. I just don't see it in Brogdon. He's a nice point guard, but hardly anything special. We've seen hundreds of point guards like him through the years. He just isn't a special talent, where as I think Saric is.

Brogdon has been consistent, but like I said, you can put most point guards in the league next to Freak-Middleton-Parker and they are going to have the same impact as Brogdon. (I'm aware they've had injuries)

I guess we'll see.

[DrWood]

Anyway, I disagree. Once again: Brogdon is playing with one of the best players in the league. Put basically any point guard in the league who's decent enough to start- and they'd replicate the same numbers as Brogdon this year and have the same impact, IMO.

then why has he been better than the other bucks guards?

[skones]

I guarantee you nobody outside of Wisconsin will take Brogdon over Saric, and that's okay, you're defending your boy. But you're going to end up being wrong, IMHO.

This is now the 2nd time you've stated this and completely misrepresented the arguments many are making. It really has nothing to do with anything. This is not a "who would you take moving forward" argument. This is who has been better this season, and for as impressive as Saric has been this last month and a half, Brogdon was flat out better for the substantial portion of the season prior.

I think Saric wins. That's fine. That doesn't change my thinking on Brogdon having the more consistent body of work.



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[King-]

Then you don't know what you're talking about, and your opinion on Brogdon doesn't mean a whole lot.

That's fine. But he isn't winning Rookie of the Year, IMO. So. Yeah.

Ask all the coaches in the league, their entire fanbases- and the commentators who watch every game and I guarantee you 90% of everybody says they'd have Dario Saric over Malcom Brogdon.

How much money do you have to bet on that?
he has a 97 Offensive rating for god's sake.

Not much, but if I did- and I was a betting man: I would bet that Brogdon's ceiling is probably around somewhere where he's at now.

I mean, its not like he's a different player, hes the same guy he was in college, but now he has a superstar playing with him 30 mins a night. Brogdon is tough, gritty, and plays with a lot of heart.... but if he didn't have these attributes- he wouldn't be in the NBA, because he isn't the most naturally talented player.

His offensive rating/stats are inflated, once again, because he's playing with Greak Freak, man. Its not that crazy of a concept. He plays in a back court that features one of the best players in the world, nobody is worrying about Malcom Brogdon dude. He does what he does because nobody expects anything of him.

Take away Freak, put him on the Sixers like I said- let defenses clamp down on him, without a superstar outlet- and Brogdon is an average player, at best. Honest to goodness.

[King-]

Anyway, I disagree. Once again: Brogdon is playing with one of the best players in the league. Put basically any point guard in the league who's decent enough to start- and they'd replicate the same numbers as Brogdon this year and have the same impact, IMO.

then why has he been better than the other bucks guards?

You're kidding, right? Why has he been better then Matthew Delavedova, Tony Snell and Jason Terry?


Brogdon has been consistent, but he has not shown any flashes of being anything more then a top 25 starting point guard in this league.

[King-]

I guarantee you nobody outside of Wisconsin will take Brogdon over Saric, and that's okay, you're defending your boy. But you're going to end up being wrong, IMHO.

This is now the 2nd time you've stated this and completely misrepresented the arguments many are making. It really has nothing to do with anything. This is not a "who would you take moving forward" argument. This is who has been better this season, and for as impressive as Saric has been this last month and a half, Brogdon was flat out better for the substantial portion of the season prior.

I think Saric wins. That's fine. That doesn't change my thinking on Brogdon having the more consistent body of work.



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He's impacting games because he's an afterthought on the court, nobody is worried about Malcom Brogdon. Saric is the #1 worry of every team when they play the Sixers.

This whole "Brogdon has been consistent all year" thing is sooo overblown- and it's no coincidence that its mainly Bucks fans who make it a point to bring up.

Brogdon has NOT been more productive/better for a substantial part of the year go check their monthly splits. They're virtually identical, other then Brogdon shooting a higher field goal percentage- for the entire season, up until February, where Saric put a team on his back and carried the Sixers against some tough teams. While Brogdon has more or less kept up the same production.

It's impossible to even say "Brogdon has been more consistent all season," when it really isn't even the case. Check their splits from the beginning of the season and everything is virtually identical.

[DrWood]

That's fine. But he isn't winning Rookie of the Year, IMO. So. Yeah.

Ask all the coaches in the league, their entire fanbases- and the commentators who watch every game and I guarantee you 90% of everybody says they'd have Dario Saric over Malcom Brogdon.

How much money do you have to bet on that?
he has a 97 Offensive rating for god's sake.

Not much, but if I did- and I was a betting man: I would bet that Brogdon's ceiling is probably around somewhere where he's at now.

I mean, its not like he's a different player, hes the same guy he was in college, but now he has a superstar playing with him 30 mins a night. Brogdon is tough, gritty, and plays with a lot of heart.... but if he didn't have these attributes- he wouldn't be in the NBA, because he isn't the most naturally talented player.

His offensive rating/stats are inflated, once again, because he's playing with Greak Freak, man. Its not that crazy of a concept. He plays in a back court that features one of the best players in the world, nobody is worrying about Malcom Brogdon dude. He does what he does because nobody expects anything of him.

Take away Freak, put him on the Sixers like I said- let defenses clamp down on him, without a superstar outlet- and Brogdon is an average player, at best. Honest to goodness.

Dude, he earned promotion to the starting lineup by playing with Greg Monroe and Jason Terry on the second team. Your assertion is incorrect.

[FrieAaron]

So in the exact same minutes per game, Brogdon is scoring 2.5 points less on 3 less shots a game, and averaging 3.6 fewer rebounds and 0.2 blocks pers game. Those are the advantages Saric has. Brogdon is shooting better from the field, the three and the FT line, averages more assists, fewer turnovers, more steals, and has an 18.6% usage compared to 24.1% for Saric, while playing meaningful minutes for a team making an important playoff push, but it's no contest?

[Eta Carinae]

I like Brogdon and I think he will be a really solid player in this league but I dont get this notion that what he is doing is more impressive because of higher efficiency. It is pretty obvious that will be the case when you are playing with a team stacked with talent instead of playing with a team where all talent is sidelined because of injuries. And it is not like Saric putting up empty stats considering how often they win.

It's funny how the narrative changes now that the Bucks are winning and Brogdon is a huge part of that. The Bucks are starting Tony Snell and Thon Maker alongside him, a guy given up on by his previous team and a raw rookie project player. But now that Brogdon is an impact player from day 1 and has saved the Bucks season with his immediate contributions, the Bucks are apparently stacked with talent.

I didnt say Brogdon has not been a big part of Bucks success, that is you putting words in my mouth. If you feel that the talent of the team surrounding Brogdon this season, especially since the allstar break is at the same level as sixers dito, then I guess we have different ways of evaluating talent. I may have over exaggerated the talent gap a bit but I think the difference is very big.
My point was that if you let them switch teams I am pretty certain Brogdons numbers, efficency wise would take a hit. I dont mean that as knock on Malcolm, I just think that is what happens when you give a rookie the green light on a team without many other options.

[CoreyGallagher]

Awards are mostly narrative driven. It's not that Saric has necessarily performed better or longer, it's that his performance peaked at the right time, towards the end of the season, and that peak has probably been the highest. Meanwhile, Brogdon has been more consistent and steadily productive throughout the season.

I'll understand either of them winning and they both deserve consideration/votes.

[baldur]

does the team success matter as much as mvp award does in the selection of roty? if so, obviously brogdon is the rookie of the year. even if not, brogdon has chance as much as saris has.

[DutchManDanFan]

It's great a 2nd round Bucks pick is close to winning RoY. Saric can have it, like MCW did.

[CoreyGallagher]

It's great a 2nd round Bucks pick is close to winning RoY. Saric can have it, like MCW did.

Brogdon was obviously a great pick in the second round, but fact that either of them are frontrunning this is an indictment of this draft class, tbh. Also, I'm not sure how MCW winning it in the past is relevant. It's not an award forecasting who will be the best pro, it's strictly who had the best rookie season according to the voters.

[skones]

I guarantee you nobody outside of Wisconsin will take Brogdon over Saric, and that's okay, you're defending your boy. But you're going to end up being wrong, IMHO.

This is now the 2nd time you've stated this and completely misrepresented the arguments many are making. It really has nothing to do with anything. This is not a "who would you take moving forward" argument. This is who has been better this season, and for as impressive as Saric has been this last month and a half, Brogdon was flat out better for the substantial portion of the season prior.

I think Saric wins. That's fine. That doesn't change my thinking on Brogdon having the more consistent body of work.



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He's impacting games because he's an afterthought on the court, nobody is worried about Malcom Brogdon. Saric is the #1 worry of every team when they play the Sixers.

This whole "Brogdon has been consistent all year" thing is sooo overblown- and it's no coincidence that its mainly Bucks fans who make it a point to bring up.

Brogdon has NOT been more productive/better for a substantial part of the year go check their monthly splits. They're virtually identical, other then Brogdon shooting a higher field goal percentage- for the entire season, up until February, where Saric put a team on his back and carried the Sixers against some tough teams. While Brogdon has more or less kept up the same production.

It's impossible to even say "Brogdon has been more consistent all season," when it really isn't even the case. Check their splits from the beginning of the season and everything is virtually identical.

He's outplaying Delly who was a substantial net positive on a championship team last season. He's not impacting games because he's an afterthought, he's impacting games because he has virtually no glaring holes in his game right now as a rookie.

As far as productive/better for a substantial part of the year, I know their monthly splits, and the fact that you're attempting to sweep them under the table is a bit ridiculous. Field goal percentage MATTERS. Efficiency MATTERS. It's becoming an analytics driven league. It's not simply about raw box score production any more. That's why this vote will be so interesting and could signify a shift in media voting.

Pre All-Star:
Brogdon: 9.4 points 2.7 rebounds 4.2 assists 1.6 TO 1.2 steals 43.8%FG 41.7%3PT 85.1%FT
Saric: 10.8 points 5.9 rebounds 1.8 assists 1.9 TO .6 steals 39.7%FG 30.4%3PT 78.4%FT

That's a pretty significant advantage for Brogdon, ESPECIALLY when you consider one is a guard and the other is a 6'10 forward.

Over the course of the season Brogdon has advantages in PER, TS%, VORP, WS/48, BPM, and RPM (1.04 for 87th overall vs -1.78 for 283rd overall). Philly has been 2.7 points per 100 possessions worse with Saric on the floor vs when he's off on a losing team.

As I said, Saric's peak is greater than Brogdon's has been, but there is far more of a case than you're seemingly willing to admit here.

[TheProdigy]

Put Brogdon on the Sixers, and he'd look no different then their starting point guard now.

Cmon man.
I think that Saric is ROTY too and i would love to have him on my team.
But Brogdon is amazing as well.
You won't find any other player on this draft class so solid when it really matters. He hasn't hit any rookie walls, he has been consistent all season long.
For a guy who is not considered a guy you should lock if you want to win(like everybody are doing against the sixers with saric since embiid is off), his impact is really significant for a winning team.
He is clutch, he is a great shooter(best rookie by far at 3s), he can pass(leads the bucks in the last games), he can defend.
That's a 2 way type of player. One more for the bucks after giannis and middleton. That's how you build a core.
With a guy who was selected at the 2nd round.

I don't know, man. I just don't see it in Brogdon. He's a nice point guard, but hardly anything special. We've seen hundreds of point guards like him through the years.He just isn't a special talent, where as I think Saric is.

Brogdon has been consistent, but like I said, you can put most point guards in the league next to Freak-Middleton-Parker and they are going to have the same impact as Brogdon. (I'm aware they've had injuries)

I guess we'll see.

Hundreds of 6'5 and 215 pound rookie point guards starting on a playoff team shooting 45% fg% and 40% 3p% while playing solid defense? Please enlighten us with this list of point guards that fit that profile.

[machu46]

Awards are mostly narrative driven. It's not that Saric has necessarily performed better or longer, it's that his performance peaked at the right time, towards the end of the season, and that peak has probably been the highest. Meanwhile, Brogdon has been more consistent and steadily productive throughout the season.

I'll understand either of them winning and they both deserve consideration/votes.

Yeah, this is really what it is. Embiid was a god the first half (roughly) of the season, so nobody talked about Brogdon. Embiid goes down, and then Saric starts filling the stat sheet the last month and a half and basically nobody cares about Brogdon again.

Assuming Embiid is basically disqualified due to his minutes, Brogdon has been the best rookie over the course of the season IMO. But in the Post-Embiid part of the year, Saric has been the one putting up big numbers on relatively good efficiency compared to his first 3 months. That's all voters will likely remember.


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[BucksPackers]

After Brogdons game last night vs the celtics, does it lock him in as rookie of the year? The last 5 mins of the game Brogdon took over and scored or assisted on almost every basket.

[skones]

C'mon man. You're going to get crucified for this.

One game, lock him in? No chance.