2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread Pt 2

[Rastas]

If we add up their per game prime stats ( pts / rebs / ass ) along with their teams win % we have a list like this for the main contenders -
Westbrook - 52.6 at .574%
Harden - 48.1 at .691%
Lebron - 43.2 at .672%
Kawhi - 35.8 at .776%

Each voter will have their own formula as to determin how much of their vote goes to the win %
Advanced stats will only come into it if it is close between players


Crazy stat here for the highest ever season total of prime stats is -
Wilt (62 ) - 78.5 at .613%

Even crazier is the fact he lost that years MVP to -
Russell - 53.8 at .750%

So who knows - I still have Harden leading the other 3 are still in striking distance.

[Johnny Firpo]

Thing is, they've always done it too. I believe Scott Brooks talked about it on the Lowe post like a month ago, they did it since he was really young. It's just now people are noticing it, because OKC's trying to run since their half court offense is generally bad now (or at least compared to how it was earlier).

It is not that they never done it, but the fact that he doubled his defensive rebound percentage from last year (it was double when I last checked), and he leads the league in uncontested rebounds. You really think that all of this is just a coincidence, or maybe, just maybe, he also wants to average a triple double, and so do his teammates want him to? Again, what they do obviously works, so please do not strawman me, my point isn't that it does not work, it clearly does.

[bondom34]

Thing is, they've always done it too. I believe Scott Brooks talked about it on the Lowe post like a month ago, they did it since he was really young. It's just now people are noticing it, because OKC's trying to run since their half court offense is generally bad now (or at least compared to how it was earlier).

It is not that they never done it, but the fact that he doubled his defensive rebound percentage from last year (it was double when I last checked), and he leads the league in uncontested rebounds. You really think that all of this is just a coincidence, or maybe, just maybe, he also wants to average a triple double, and so do his teammates want him to? Again, what they do obviously works, so please do not strawman me, my point isn't that it does not work, it clearly does.

No strawman, but his DRB percentage hasn't nearly doubled (28 percent from 18) and I don't think he cares about stats any more than any other player. If you want to claim that that's fine, but there's not a single NBA player who doesn't care about them, it's how guys get paid. To add to it, it's not like he's some massive outlier, when Harden and Durant themselves are grabbing similar percentages of contested rebounds, he's just grabbing more overall.

The big difference is Durant is gone.

Last year Durant averaged 6.6 uncontested per game and a 19.5 contested rebound percentage, Westbrook 5.9 and 24.8%. Those rebounds are now leaning more toward Westbrook, who's grabbing 8.5 at 19.9%.

It's essentially what has always happened, just shifted toward Westbrook instead of Durant, and people seem to want to poke holes in it because of whatever reason.

[sp6r=underrated]

I'm not as high on Westbrook as Bondom but criticism of WB's rebounding hits me as mostly unfounded. The Thunder are actually a relatively strong rebounding team, top 5 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Most teams that allow their guards to get rebounds by strategy are generally fairly poor on the boards which isn't the case.

My concern with the strategy is that by making the teammates defer to WB in essentially every part of the game they become overly passive in general. Human beings aren't robots and if you limit people agency to a very narrow band you run a significant risk that they'll fail to take action in that band due to learned helplessness.

[K_chile22]

If we add up their per game prime stats ( pts / rebs / ass ) along with their teams win % we have a list like this for the main contenders -
Westbrook - 52.6 at .574%
Harden - 48.1 at .691%
Lebron - 43.2 at .672%
Kawhi - 35.8 at .776%

Each voter will have their own formula as to determin how much of their vote goes to the win %
Advanced stats will only come into it if it is close between players


Crazy stat here for the highest ever season total of prime stats is -
Wilt (62 ) - 78.5 at .613%

Even crazier is the fact he lost that years MVP to -
Russell - 53.8 at .750%

So who knows - I still have Harden leading the other 3 are still in striking distance.

assists and rebounds should probably be weighted differently from each other and points

[Doctor MJ]

I'm not as high on Westbrook as Bondom but criticism of WB's rebounding hits me as mostly unfounded. The Thunder are actually a relatively strong rebounding team, top 5 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Most teams that allow their guards to get rebounds by strategy are generally fairly poor on the boards which isn't the case.

My concern with the strategy is that by making the teammates defer to WB in essentially every part of the game they become overly passive in general. Human beings aren't robots and if you limit people agency to a very narrow band you run a significant risk that they'll fail to take action in that band due to learned helplessness.

One of the things that plays into how I see this could be argued to be no longer relevant:

It's the fact that when Westbrook started doing this 2 years ago, the regression data told us it was actively hurting the team's defensive rebounding. So when Westbrook started doing this, it was flat out bad for the team's defense but people were praising him like he was helping the defense.

At this point they've had roster changes and new approaches developed so that might mean it's done now in a way that has considerably more good and less bad.

[bondom34]

I'm not as high on Westbrook as Bondom but criticism of WB's rebounding hits me as mostly unfounded. The Thunder are actually a relatively strong rebounding team, top 5 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Most teams that allow their guards to get rebounds by strategy are generally fairly poor on the boards which isn't the case.

My concern with the strategy is that by making the teammates defer to WB in essentially every part of the game they become overly passive in general. Human beings aren't robots and if you limit people agency to a very narrow band you run a significant risk that they'll fail to take action in that band due to learned helplessness.

One of the things that plays into how I see this could be argued to be no longer relevant:

It's the fact that when Westbrook started doing this 2 years ago, the regression data told us it was actively hurting the team's defensive rebounding. So when Westbrook started doing this, it was flat out bad for the team's defense but people were praising him like he was helping the defense.

At this point they've had roster changes and new approaches developed so that might mean it's done now in a way that has considerably more good and less bad.

Curious do you have the regression numbers? Gotbuckets is down.

Also, if you still follow regression numbers wouldn't you note Westbrook's pretty decent lead in RPM?

[Doctor MJ]

I'm not as high on Westbrook as Bondom but criticism of WB's rebounding hits me as mostly unfounded. The Thunder are actually a relatively strong rebounding team, top 5 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Most teams that allow their guards to get rebounds by strategy are generally fairly poor on the boards which isn't the case.

My concern with the strategy is that by making the teammates defer to WB in essentially every part of the game they become overly passive in general. Human beings aren't robots and if you limit people agency to a very narrow band you run a significant risk that they'll fail to take action in that band due to learned helplessness.

One of the things that plays into how I see this could be argued to be no longer relevant:

It's the fact that when Westbrook started doing this 2 years ago, the regression data told us it was actively hurting the team's defensive rebounding. So when Westbrook started doing this, it was flat out bad for the team's defense but people were praising him like he was helping the defense.

At this point they've had roster changes and new approaches developed so that might mean it's done now in a way that has considerably more good and less bad.

Curious do you have the regression numbers? Gotbuckets is down.

Also, if you still follow regression numbers wouldn't you note Westbrook's pretty decent lead in RPM?

I never saved the numbers so unfortunately I just remembe them now.

Re: RPM. It's a real struggle for me that we don't really get access to RAPM any more. While I don't dispute that Werstbrook has great impact I've always seen him as the type prone to being overrated by a blended model. Like RPM.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[bondom34]

One of the things that plays into how I see this could be argued to be no longer relevant:

It's the fact that when Westbrook started doing this 2 years ago, the regression data told us it was actively hurting the team's defensive rebounding. So when Westbrook started doing this, it was flat out bad for the team's defense but people were praising him like he was helping the defense.

At this point they've had roster changes and new approaches developed so that might mean it's done now in a way that has considerably more good and less bad.

Curious do you have the regression numbers? Gotbuckets is down.

Also, if you still follow regression numbers wouldn't you note Westbrook's pretty decent lead in RPM?

I never saved the numbers so unfortunately I just remembe them now.

Re: RPM. It's a real struggle for me that we don't really get access to RAPM any more. While I don't dispute that Werstbrook has great impact I've always seen him as the type prone to being overrated by a blended model. Like RPM.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Ah, gotcha. Just remembered something though, wayback machine. And you are correct, which is still odd given on/off splits.

[Doctor MJ]

Curious do you have the regression numbers? Gotbuckets is down.

Also, if you still follow regression numbers wouldn't you note Westbrook's pretty decent lead in RPM?

I never saved the numbers so unfortunately I just remembe them now.

Re: RPM. It's a real struggle for me that we don't really get access to RAPM any more. While I don't dispute that Werstbrook has great impact I've always seen him as the type prone to being overrated by a blended model. Like RPM.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Ah, gotcha. Just remembered something though, wayback machine. And you are correct, which is still odd given on/off splits.

A good thing to bring up.

I think something that must be frustrating for you is trying to see in my perspective a complete explanation that doesn't include bias. I won't claim certainty that I lack bias, but it's not about Westbrook specifically, the way he's come to play just sets off a ton of red flags for me. That means my instincts take me in a particular direction, but doesn't mean those instincts are right.

What I think we can safely say about several guys right now - Westbrook, Harden, Thomas, etc - is that teams have rebounded back toward relying on stars to make things happen. They went with more of a team focus upon seeing the analytics of how much they were getting hurt by relying on iso ball compared to more sophisticated tactics...but then they started finding new tactics to put so many of their eggs in a single basket which don't seem to hurt as much. And I'm wary.

Harden I feel better about because of his history of efficiency and beautiful passes along with the fact that Houston now has a massive ORtg, but still, I wonder if a defensive adaptation is coming that's going to really take a toll.

[bondom34]

Harden I feel better about because of his history of efficiency and beautiful passes along with the fact that Houston now has a massive ORtg, but still, I wonder if a defensive adaptation is coming that's going to really take a toll.

My issue here is still what it always has been:
1. Efficiency isn't everything, and is a small part of offense. Westbrook has had impact overall on offense near what Harden does despite not being as efficient a shooter. He is actually more efficient by points per touch, and does this with a worse surrounding cast of offensive talent.

2. Harden's team isn't even bad when he's not on court offensively. They're a greatly talented team on that side of the ball, and that was never a question. Houston's O rating isn't simply due to Harden (though he's playing a role obviously), it's a perfect storm. If you swapped the two we'd be saying the same things in reverse.

[Doctor MJ]

Harden I feel better about because of his history of efficiency and beautiful passes along with the fact that Houston now has a massive ORtg, but still, I wonder if a defensive adaptation is coming that's going to really take a toll.

My issue here is still what it always has been:
1. Efficiency isn't everything, and is a small part of offense. Westbrook has had impact overall on offense near what Harden does despite not being as efficient a shooter. He is actually more efficient by points per touch, and does this with a worse surrounding cast of offensive talent.

2. Harden's team isn't even bad when he's not on court offensively. They're a greatly talented team on that side of the ball, and that was never a question. Houston's O rating isn't simply due to Harden (though he's playing a role obviously), it's a perfect storm. If you swapped the two we'd be saying the same things in reverse.

1. It's not everything but it speaks to decision making which permeates all facets of the game, and if we're talking about a point guard, this is the area where his judgement is supposed to be strongest. In an age where data is easy to come by, to me it's indicative of a foundational weakness in ability to objectively perceive what's going on around the court.

I'll add that if you tell me a guy tends to be lacking in efficiency and his method of play is one of basically running toward the action at all times, the issue becomes something specific: We're talking about a player who primarily is focused on what his body can do rather than looking at how to play the game like chess. That's not necessarily a weakness depending on your role, but it's not what I want in my point guard, and if I'd been grooming Westbrook it would have been as an off-ball juggernaut:

Re: More efficient by points per touch. Hmm, given that he shoots worse than Harden, doesn't that simply reflect him being more likely to call his own number every time he gets the ball?

2. We've talked about this before and I get your perspective. I also think it must be maddening debating with me given that I'm known to use +/- stats a lot. We got to an impasse before because you were focused on the guys who were neither Harden or D'Antoni, and I just don't think it makes sense to use role players to explain this level of success.

I'll ask a question which I don't know if it matters to you, but it matters to me:

Just based on skillset, do you think someone else in the league would do better with D'Antoni's offense than Harden does?

[Screwston]

Harden I feel better about because of his history of efficiency and beautiful passes along with the fact that Houston now has a massive ORtg, but still, I wonder if a defensive adaptation is coming that's going to really take a toll.

My issue here is still what it always has been:
1. Efficiency isn't everything, and is a small part of offense. Westbrook has had impact overall on offense near what Harden does despite not being as efficient a shooter. He is actually more efficient by points per touch, and does this with a worse surrounding cast of offensive talent.

2. Harden's team isn't even bad when he's not on court offensively. They're a greatly talented team on that side of the ball, and that was never a question. Houston's O rating isn't simply due to Harden (though he's playing a role obviously), it's a perfect storm. If you swapped the two we'd be saying the same things in reverse.

Idk (about the last sentence), Harden carried similar or worse team to the 2nd seed than what WB is working with, 2015. 2nd best scorer on that team was Ariza with 14 ppg. Westbrook can carry anybody to the playoffs but to top 3 seed, remains to be seen.

[bondom34]

Harden I feel better about because of his history of efficiency and beautiful passes along with the fact that Houston now has a massive ORtg, but still, I wonder if a defensive adaptation is coming that's going to really take a toll.

My issue here is still what it always has been:
1. Efficiency isn't everything, and is a small part of offense. Westbrook has had impact overall on offense near what Harden does despite not being as efficient a shooter. He is actually more efficient by points per touch, and does this with a worse surrounding cast of offensive talent.

2. Harden's team isn't even bad when he's not on court offensively. They're a greatly talented team on that side of the ball, and that was never a question. Houston's O rating isn't simply due to Harden (though he's playing a role obviously), it's a perfect storm. If you swapped the two we'd be saying the same things in reverse.

1. It's not everything but it speaks to decision making which permeates all facets of the game, and if we're talking about a point guard, this is the area where his judgement is supposed to be strongest. In an age where data is easy to come by, to me it's indicative of a foundational weakness in ability to objectively perceive what's going on around the court.

I'll add that if you tell me a guy tends to be lacking in efficiency and his method of play is one of basically running toward the action at all times, the issue becomes something specific: We're talking about a player who primarily is focused on what his body can do rather than looking at how to play the game like chess. That's not necessarily a weakness depending on your role, but it's not what I want in my point guard, and if I'd been grooming Westbrook it would have been as an off-ball juggernaut:

Re: More efficient by points per touch. Hmm, given that he shoots worse than Harden, doesn't that simply reflect him being more likely to call his own number every time he gets the ball?

2. We've talked about this before and I get your perspective. I also think it must be maddening debating with me given that I'm known to use +/- stats a lot. We got to an impasse before because you were focused on the guys who were neither Harden or D'Antoni, and I just don't think it makes sense to use role players to explain this level of success.

I'll ask a question which I don't know if it matters to you, but it matters to me:

Just based on skillset, do you think someone else in the league would do better with D'Antoni's offense than Harden does?

1. It's really not though. I don't think Harden is a better decision maker at all, he's more TO prone, he's just better at getting to the line. He's not a terribly better shooter, and to this point turns it over more often.

Points per touch is indicating he's more efficient each time he touches the ball which to me would indicate the opposite.

How Westbrook was "groomed" isn't really relevant to how either is playing currently when our only current goal is to measure just that, not more.

2. Yes. I think Westbrook could do similar. I think Curry could. To be totally honest I think most any offensively skilled PG would look pretty similarly amazing under MDA. He's done this with Jeremy Lin, I'm not counting out a high caliber PG from doing more.

As well, I'm more confused because of your use of plus/minus except when they seem to finally favor Westbrook. RPM is favoring him, and I get the box score portion but BPM alone has been shown to have predictive value as well.

[bondom34]

Harden I feel better about because of his history of efficiency and beautiful passes along with the fact that Houston now has a massive ORtg, but still, I wonder if a defensive adaptation is coming that's going to really take a toll.

My issue here is still what it always has been:
1. Efficiency isn't everything, and is a small part of offense. Westbrook has had impact overall on offense near what Harden does despite not being as efficient a shooter. He is actually more efficient by points per touch, and does this with a worse surrounding cast of offensive talent.

2. Harden's team isn't even bad when he's not on court offensively. They're a greatly talented team on that side of the ball, and that was never a question. Houston's O rating isn't simply due to Harden (though he's playing a role obviously), it's a perfect storm. If you swapped the two we'd be saying the same things in reverse.

Idk (about the last sentence), Harden carried similar or worse team to the 2nd seed than what WB is working with, 2015. 2nd best scorer on that team was Ariza with 14 ppg. Westbrook can carry anybody to the playoffs but to top 3 seed is remain to be seen.

The issue with OKC isn't when he's on court. It's when he's off. He's having similar impact while on court.

Harden's on court net rating in 2015 was a +5.8. Westbrook's this year is a +4.4. And he's doing it with what I'd still call a similar to worse cast. Dwight and Ariza were at worst 2 reliable vets. Westbrook is in a situation where there are no vets around, and is relying heavily on younger players who aren't near their prime.

[Screwston]

My issue here is still what it always has been:
1. Efficiency isn't everything, and is a small part of offense. Westbrook has had impact overall on offense near what Harden does despite not being as efficient a shooter. He is actually more efficient by points per touch, and does this with a worse surrounding cast of offensive talent.

2. Harden's team isn't even bad when he's not on court offensively. They're a greatly talented team on that side of the ball, and that was never a question. Houston's O rating isn't simply due to Harden (though he's playing a role obviously), it's a perfect storm. If you swapped the two we'd be saying the same things in reverse.

Idk (about the last sentence), Harden carried similar or worse team to the 2nd seed than what WB is working with, 2015. 2nd best scorer on that team was Ariza with 14 ppg. Westbrook can carry anybody to the playoffs but to top 3 seed is remain to be seen.

The issue with OKC isn't when he's on court. It's when he's off. He's having similar impact while on court.

Harden's on court net rating in 2015 was a +5.8. Westbrook's this year is a +4.4. And he's doing it with what I'd still call a similar to worse cast. Dwight and Ariza were at worst 2 reliable vets. Westbrook is in a situation where there are no vets around, and is relying heavily on younger players who aren't near their prime.

Dwight missed half of that season. Beverley missed 26 games, starting front court was Tarik Black/Joey Dorsey n Jones/DMO.

[Doctor MJ]

1. It's really not though. I don't think Harden is a better decision maker at all, he's more TO prone, he's just better at getting to the line. He's not a terribly better shooter, and to this point turns it over more often.

Points per touch is indicating he's more efficient each time he touches the ball which to me would indicate the opposite.

How Westbrook was "groomed" isn't really relevant to how either is playing currently when our only current goal is to measure just that, not more.

2. Yes. I think Westbrook could do similar. I think Curry could. To be totally honest I think most any offensively skilled PG would look pretty similarly amazing under MDA. He's done this with Jeremy Lin, I'm not counting out a high caliber PG from doing more.

As well, I'm more confused because of your use of plus/minus except when they seem to finally favor Westbrook. RPM is favoring him, and I get the box score portion but BPM alone has been shown to have predictive value as well.

1. Houston is running an offense utterly dominated by Harden's primacy, they are doing it with a far-beyond-reckless approach to scoring where Harden is regularly making ultra-long passes on a level I don't think we've ever seen anyone do before, and this is leading to the #1 offense in the league with a TO% that is pretty normal in the NBA.

I don't think it makes sense to say that Harden is turnover prone simply because in the course of this task he personally commits more turnovers than others.

Re: not really a terribly better shooter. Dude, I thought you were the one trying to excuse Westbrook's decision making based on his weaker shooting. To me though it seems like a distinction without difference though here.

Re: groomed irrelevant. Just making a statement about how I see things.

2. Okay, I really don't understand how you say this and your not going nuts at how amazing D'Antoni is then. You think he can run a 115+ ORtg with basically any skilled point guard. That's an insane coaching ability.

Re: BPM is predictive. It's predictive but it has consistent biases. The biases don't make it useless were there no other metrics to use, but there are other metrics.

Re: "You like +/- except when it favors Westbrook", yeah that's where I feel ya. From my perspective I'm saying the same stuff I always said but I understand why it wouldn't seem that way to others.

[Doctor MJ]

Dwight missed half of that season. Beverley missed 26 games, starting front court was Tarik Black/Joey Dorsey n Jones/DMO.

This is something people have largely forgotten.

At the time, it was seen as a miracle that Houston succeeded like it did given Dwight missing half the season.

But then we saw what happened when Dwight was around more. Him being hurt, along with being in a new place, likely kept him from focusing on the fact that he wasn't the Man in Houston. Once he got healthier though, his ego took prominence again, and since he was no longer able to perform at the level he did in the past, this made it impossible to keep him happy.

[bondom34]

Idk (about the last sentence), Harden carried similar or worse team to the 2nd seed than what WB is working with, 2015. 2nd best scorer on that team was Ariza with 14 ppg. Westbrook can carry anybody to the playoffs but to top 3 seed is remain to be seen.

The issue with OKC isn't when he's on court. It's when he's off. He's having similar impact while on court.

Harden's on court net rating in 2015 was a +5.8. Westbrook's this year is a +4.4. And he's doing it with what I'd still call a similar to worse cast. Dwight and Ariza were at worst 2 reliable vets. Westbrook is in a situation where there are no vets around, and is relying heavily on younger players who aren't near their prime.

Dwight missed half of that season. Beverley missed 26 games, starting front court was Tarik Black/Joey Dorsey n Jones/DMO.

Forgot about Dwight. That said, Oladipo has bren out too, but the big problem is okc has maybe 2 2 way players. Theyve had no vets, and most of the roster isnt bad vut is made up of specialists. As well, the bench is way worse than that Houston team by net rating.

[bondom34]

And Doc I'll reply when I get home from work. Hate using mobile.

But I will add many see okc doing this well as a massive surprise . Not all, but quite a few.