2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread (Pt 2)

[life_saver]

I am interested to see what people think of Ayton's offense. I have been watching a lot of Ayton's highlights on YT over his last 10-15 matches. From what I have seen, most of his FGs seem to be coming from tip ins, Offensive Rebounds, PnR action plays. 73% of Ayton's FG attempts are within 10 feet. He doesn't seem to be a great shooter(he is shooting 37% on FGs in 10-16 feet range, 41% on FGs in '16 feet - 3 pt line ' range. These numbers are ok but nothing great. Has only attempted 2 3's so far, so not sure about how good of a 3 point shooter he is). I haven't seen him creating his own shot much. Also, haven't seen many possessions of him posting up, especially haven't seen any good post moves from him against decent Centers. His efficiency is very good but considering his shot chart, it isn't that surprising.

TDLR: I do think Ayton will be a pretty decent player but I just don't see anything special in his offense

[TheBonzaiEffect]

This is a very talented group of rookies, but they're are some serious question marks about their individual defense that could restrict their upside. Some will get better (a la Fox), and some will remain defense liabilities.

Biggest Concerns:
Trae Young - undersize defender, last in DPRM for PG
Colin Sexton - might be a good defender some day, but second to last DPRM for PG
Marvin Bagley - very active but poor defensive awareness, dead last in DPRM for PF
Mo Bamba - can't add mass, looks to have lost some weight since Combine (~Thon Maker/Skal). Dead last in DPRM for C

Question Marks:
Luka Doncic - coach hides his deficiency well in defensive schemes but he looks like a defensive liability ex. allowing Gallo (not known for foot speed) for a critical basket. Remains the biggest defensive unknown due to sample size, he doesn't get tested much. Does he have the athletic ability to keep up with forwards? Will be intriguing to see what he does during the off season (lose weight?), but the eye test so far indicates a Booker-esque liability

Jaren Jackson Jr - Undeniable DPOY potential, but can he anchor a defense w/o Gasol/Conley? Not a great rebounder despite his size at the 4, and isn't particular strong (serious reservation he can play the 5 like Draymond). Can he be the elite defensive presence w/o fouling? Good defender but if he can't rebound and get stronger to battle with bigger front court, I don't see the DPOY awards coming his way.

Wendell Carter Jr - stud defender but undersized as a C. Extremely likeable player, but he's almost unplayable against bigger front court. Can he coexist with Lauri? Both look small.

ayton - started out poorly as a defender but has since picked it up. Has all the athletic abilities but the game speed is still too fast for him. Will the game slow down for him?

Stop trolling. Luka is already better on D than Booker has ever been.

Luka: 109 DRtg, 1.3 DWS, .5 DBPM

Booker: 116 DRtg, .3 DWS, -2.8 DBPM (never been above -2.4).

How can you compare a rookie who is right now a positive impact defender to a turnstile combo guard? Really?

Maybe because Rick Carlislie hides him in his defensive scheme? When tasked with guarding decent players, he looks bad. I saw him try to guard TJ Warren for one sequence, and Rick decide not have him guard TJ the rest of the night. So yeah, there's some question marks.

You're right...your anecdotal evidence from one game far supersedes a season of DBPM and other advanced stats.

[GoodBehavior]

Stop trolling. Luka is already better on D than Booker has ever been.

Luka: 109 DRtg, 1.3 DWS, .5 DBPM

Booker: 116 DRtg, .3 DWS, -2.8 DBPM (never been above -2.4).

How can you compare a rookie who is right now a positive impact defender to a turnstile combo guard? Really?

Maybe because Rick Carlislie hides him in his defensive scheme? When tasked with guarding decent players, he looks bad. I saw him try to guard TJ Warren for one sequence, and Rick decide not have him guard TJ the rest of the night. So yeah, there's some question marks.

You're right...your anecdotal evidence from one game far supersedes a season of DBPM and other advanced stats.

Did you read what I wrote before? There's a limited sample of his defense, because he's rarely tested. So his defense remains a question mark. Stats are hardly the final words and is skewed accordingly. Barnes have a lower DPRM, do you think Barnes who guard opposing team's best players is a worse defender?

And no, it just not one game. He struggled plenty.

[Bob8]

Maybe because Rick Carlislie hides him in his defensive scheme? When tasked with guarding decent players, he looks bad. I saw him try to guard TJ Warren for one sequence, and Rick decide not have him guard TJ the rest of the night. So yeah, there's some question marks.

You're right...your anecdotal evidence from one game far supersedes a season of DBPM and other advanced stats.

Did you read what I wrote before? There's a limited sample of his defense, because he's rarely tested. So his defense remains a question mark. Stats are hardly the final words and is skewed accordingly. Barnes have a lower DPRM, do you think Barnes who guard opposing team's best players is a worse defender?

And no, it just not one game. He struggled plenty.

He’s so well hidden, that he’s averaging 6.6 rebounds while hiding .

[NY 567]

Ayton is brutal on defense. He's going to have to be a legit superstar on offense to have a lot of value.

[Duke4life831]

Ayton is brutal on defense. He's going to have to be a legit superstar on offense to have a lot of value.

I thought he was similar to KAT. Right now Ayton is getting 17 points on 12 shots. A rookie KAT got 18 points on 14 shots. I can easily see him following KAT's career trajectory so far.

[TheBonzaiEffect]

Maybe because Rick Carlislie hides him in his defensive scheme? When tasked with guarding decent players, he looks bad. I saw him try to guard TJ Warren for one sequence, and Rick decide not have him guard TJ the rest of the night. So yeah, there's some question marks.

You're right...your anecdotal evidence from one game far supersedes a season of DBPM and other advanced stats.

Did you read what I wrote before? There's a limited sample of his defense, because he's rarely tested. So his defense remains a question mark. Stats are hardly the final words and is skewed accordingly. Barnes have a lower DPRM, do you think Barnes who guard opposing team's best players is a worse defender?

And no, it just not one game. He struggled plenty.

"Hiding" someone on defense (Luka guards good players all the time, which you'd know if you watched more than 3 games), doesn't really skew every single advanced defensive stat. Luka is a good post defender, and average to good at every facet of D other than guarding really quick/explosive guys like Harden...but most guys aren't.

[stoo]

Luka Doncic December Highlights | KIA NBA Rookie of the Month

Watch on YouTube

[Duke4life831]

I dont get the Luka and defense thing. I dont think he's a good defender, I think hes probably slightly below average for a rookie. But who cares? He isnt a big, so he isnt your last line of defense and he isnt a small PG so his height doesnt kill switches. Most teams dont have 4 super skilled perimeter guys that can hurt you. Luka tends to guard the worst perimeter player for the majority of the time (yes he does get switched on the better ones as well), who cares? its not hurting the team in the long haul. I dont think even Luka's biggest supporters think the dude is going to be a perennial all defense kind of guy. Just be a great offensive player, be 6'8 and put in enough effort on defense so we can toss you on the worst opposing perimeter player and you wont negatively effect the defense. That is basically what has happened.

I think its already pretty clear Luka's defense isnt going to be so bad that you will question if he is a net positive overall. No he's clearly big enough and tries hard enough that its pretty easy to hide him.

[TheBonzaiEffect]

Luka Doncic December Highlights | KIA NBA Rookie of the Month

Watch on YouTube

You really see why he's special there...dribble drives, step-backs, post-up, shot creation, vision, creatively. He can do it all offensively.

[Duke4life831]

Luka Doncic December Highlights | KIA NBA Rookie of the Month

Watch on YouTube

You really see why he's special there...dribble drives, step-backs, post-up, shot creation, vision, creatively. He can do it all offensively.

That is just a different skill level there. I can watch his games and highlights all day long. A part of me also hopes Dallas tanks the rest of the year as well and keep their top 5 pick. Adding another top 5 pick to Luka would be really cool to see. Luka looks like he has the chance to be the real deal, dont want him wasting away prime years on a bad team trying to get other players. Tank this year and get another top 5 pick to grow with him.

[Riko]

That is just a different skill level there. I can watch his games and highlights all day long. A part of me also hopes Dallas tanks the rest of the year as well and keep their top 5 pick. Adding another top 5 pick to Luka would be really cool to see. Luka looks like he has the chance to be the real deal, dont want him wasting away prime years on a bad team trying to get other players. Tank this year and get another top 5 pick to grow with him.

With 18 W is already too late.
btw is really hard to tell to a player who in the last 14 months won Eurobasket, Euroleague and Spanish league that they should tank.

[Bob8]

That is just a different skill level there. I can watch his games and highlights all day long. A part of me also hopes Dallas tanks the rest of the year as well and keep their top 5 pick. Adding another top 5 pick to Luka would be really cool to see. Luka looks like he has the chance to be the real deal, dont want him wasting away prime years on a bad team trying to get other players. Tank this year and get another top 5 pick to grow with him.

With 18 W is already too late.
btw is really hard to tell to a player who in the last 14 months won Eurobasket, Euroleague and Spanish league that they should tank.

Even if they finish 8th, they have 26% for top4 pick. 6th gives them 37%. So anything is possible.

[KingDavid]

Ayton is brutal on defense. He's going to have to be a legit superstar on offense to have a lot of value.

I thought he was similar to KAT. Right now Ayton is getting 17 points on 12 shots. A rookie KAT got 18 points on 14 shots. I can easily see him following KAT's career trajectory so far.

Ah ok. So he just needs a couple of years to put it together on that end. That's good news for PHX, imo.

[xxSnEaKyPxx]

Ayton is brutal on defense. He's going to have to be a legit superstar on offense to have a lot of value.

Disagree.

He's a rookie. A lot of rookie Centers are horrible on defense when they first come into the league.

Myles Turner was not a good defender when he joined the NBA, he could block shots, but his overall defense was not good. Now he is one of the best defensive players in the NBA.

Sometimes you just have to give a rookie some time and a good coach. Ayton has all the physical tools needed to be a good defender, he's just gotta put it all together, which comes with time and experience(and good coaching).

[xxSnEaKyPxx]

What is everyones thoughts on Alize Johnson?

Watch on YouTube

The guy is absolutely dominating in the G-League averaging 19.2 points on 52%/46.5% from 3, 14.5 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.1 steals, and 0.3 blocks per game.

[Archx]

Ayton is brutal on defense. He's going to have to be a legit superstar on offense to have a lot of value.

Disagree.

He's a rookie. A lot of rookie Centers are horrible on defense when they first come into the league.

Myles Turner was not a good defender when he joined the NBA, he could block shots, but his overall defense was not good. Now he is one of the best defensive players in the NBA.

Sometimes you just have to give a rookie some time and a good coach. Ayton has all the physical tools needed to be a good defender, he's just gotta put it all together, which comes with time and experience(and good coaching).

People should really stop saying that Ayton his horrible on defense, because he is not. He is learning and has already improved a ton. It all comes down to energy and willingness to defend. He is one of the best 1v1 defenders i have ever seen for a center. You can rarely outplay him and he makes great effort to at least challenge a shot. Rim protection and weak side help, that's a bit of a learning process but still, he is not as horrible as people think. He is an athletic freak with long reach and high jump.

Actually biggest problem with him is creating offense for himself. That's something he'll have to learn in order to push PHX over the edge. Right now over 70% of his baskets are assisted, sure you can live on that but can you really help the team get deep into the playoffs?
Anyway Ayton does have a natural feel for the game so i think he'll be just fine in time.

[Goudelock]

I just want to give a shout out to Jevon Carter. He's a joy to watch on the defensive end.

[BAMAFREAK]

I just want to give a shout out to Jevon Carter. He's a joy to watch on the defensive end.

Monster defender but no threat offensively.
He’s really quick and strong with elite body control and quick hands. The kind of guy you don’t want to go against in pick up. But can leave him open offensively

[King Ken]

Rough night for the rookies.