MVP discussion thread

[pauk89]

The top 3 team in the west are 27-1 against the East

[makaveli_99]

The top 3 team in the west are 27-1 against the East

seriously? wow thats staggering

[Hero]

I use my eyetest. And after what I saw last year in the playoffs Durant literally is worth nothing but empty stats without Westbrook. And the differnce between LeBron and Durant in my opinion is that LeBron is efficient no matter what whether Durant is only efficient with Westbrook as a playmaker and primary ballhandler.

Welp.

Even though I'm an OKC fan, I now wish Durant was injured instead of Westbrook. I wonder what OKC could do then.

Miami without LeBron roughly equals OKC without Durant. I say "roughly", because Miami's offense is designed around LeBron, whereas OKC's is not. That doesn't say Durant is nearly as important to OKC though. Try to look a bit deeper.

It would be similar to when Westbrook was injured. They both mean around the same to the Thunder. Westbrook brings so much energy and hustle to the team. He is a very good rebounder for the point guard position and creates a mismatch every night. Miami without LeBron isn't close to OKC without KD. KD isn't the primary ballhandler for the Thunder. We saw in the playoffs how much he struggled at that. Russ is easily a top 10 player and what he means to OKC should not be underestimated. He is a major reason why the Thunder run teams out of the game by the time the first half is over.

[Dupas]

Durant is rolling. Its between him and LB. No one else is even remotly close

[bbms]

His impact IS high, even rapm shows this but in my opinion (and not only mine) his impact is lower than Russel's. That's it.

Could you please explain to me what are the factors that RAPM takes account? I bet that rotations offensive/defensive ratings on and off takes a huge part of RAPM, right? Well, that can be explainable since Durant spend a lot more time on the floor, and a lot of more time with the backups, or at least, used to be.

[BayInferno]

Does Lillard at least get a mention? He's been clutch as hell lately

[SideshowBob]

His impact IS high, even rapm shows this but in my opinion (and not only mine) his impact is lower than Russel's. That's it.

Could you please explain to me what are the factors that RAPM takes account? I bet that rotations offensive/defensive ratings on and off takes a huge part of RAPM, right? Well, that can be explainable since Durant spend a lot more time on the floor, and a lot of more time with the backups, or at least, used to be.

RAPM is multiple ridge-regression of every players' time on the court with the pace adjusted MOV weighted by possessions played. Opponent strength is accounted for because it is built in. It does not take into account what happens when a player is off the floor at all; it's only concerned with what occurs when said player is ON the floor.

[bbms]

His impact IS high, even rapm shows this but in my opinion (and not only mine) his impact is lower than Russel's. That's it.

Could you please explain to me what are the factors that RAPM takes account? I bet that rotations offensive/defensive ratings on and off takes a huge part of RAPM, right? Well, that can be explainable since Durant spend a lot more time on the floor, and a lot of more time with the backups, or at least, used to be.

RAPM is multiple ridge-regression of every players' time on the court with the pace adjusted MOV weighted by possessions played. Opponent strength is accounted for because it is built in. It does not take into account what happens when a player is off the floor at all; it's only concerned with what occurs when said player is ON the floor.

So the fact that Harden left OKC bench, and this bench have been significantly worse in the last two seasons than it was with Harden, can be a factor in Durant's RAPM? Hope you guys get me in the next one, but by any means can the fact that Westbrook sees more of his playing time % with Durant on than Durant's % with Westbrook on helps to build a better RAPM than Durant? If you guys confirm my assumptions, Durant helps largely Westbrook to build RAPM, while Westbrook helps less to build Durant's.

If I got that right, so maybe RAPM is not a good stat to evaluate someone's individual impact unless the guy is playing really heavy minutes, otherwise, it's a good stat to evaluate certain rotation's impact that a player be part, but not exactly this especific player's impact.

[SideshowBob]

Could you please explain to me what are the factors that RAPM takes account? I bet that rotations offensive/defensive ratings on and off takes a huge part of RAPM, right? Well, that can be explainable since Durant spend a lot more time on the floor, and a lot of more time with the backups, or at least, used to be.

RAPM is multiple ridge-regression of every players' time on the court with the pace adjusted MOV weighted by possessions played. Opponent strength is accounted for because it is built in. It does not take into account what happens when a player is off the floor at all; it's only concerned with what occurs when said player is ON the floor.

So the fact that Harden left OKC bench, and this bench have been significantly worse in the last two seasons than it was with Harden, can be a factor in Durant's RAPM? Hope you guys get me in the next one, but by any means can the fact that Westbrook sees more of his playing time % with Durant on than Durant's % with Westbrook on helps to build a better RAPM than Durant? If you guys confirm my assumptions, Durant helps largely Westbrook to build RAPM, while Westbrook helps less to build Durant's.

If I got that right, so maybe RAPM is not a good stat to evaluate someone's individual impact unless the guy is playing really heavy minutes, otherwise, it's a good stat to evaluate certain rotation's impact that a player be part, but not exactly this especific player's impact.

No. It's not a factor in Durant's RAPM. That's exactly what's not happening.

Minutes have to be accounted for for every player. Within a single year, you want to compare guys who play similar minutes against each other, so a 20 MPG role-player shouldn't be compared directly with a 36 MPG starter without accounting for that fact.

[bbms]

Now I don't think you get me. Harden left, Durant shifted his minutes to play more with backups and make a balance of rotations power, and this backups are getting younger but worse. That could be a factor, right? If Durant plays more with the backups than Westbrook, and this bench is not that great, so, the fact that Durant plays more in worse rotations, may drag his RAPM down, am I right?

[SideshowBob]

Ah I see. Well there's a lot to get into there. Firstly, playing with backups means you are likely playing against opponent benches, which brings in a bit of balance. Secondly, the typical complaint with RAPM has been that stars who get to play more minutes with weaker bench players will have their RAPM inflated. Remember, EVERY lineup a star plays in is accounted for, so when a star is playing with a weaker cast, the expectation is that while the lineup itself may play weaker, the star will be accredited with more impact than if playing with a starting lineup.

This is frequently a knock against Ginobili's extremely high RAPM and APM values. He is frequently played with and against 2nd units, and his RAPM suggests that he has superstar level impact. The argument against that is that his values are inflated because he's playing with and against those weaker lineups, not deflated, as you are suggesting.

This makes sense. Say Durant is a +5 player and the starting lineup as a whole plays like a +5. Taking Durant out of that starting lineup and throwing in an average player would theoretically make them a +0 lineup. However, if Durant is inserted into a bench 2nd unit lineup that would be a -2 against an average starting lineup, but only plays against other 2nd units and therefore looks stronger (say +0), then throwing the +5 Durant into that lineup will allow him to have greater than +5 impact, because both the team and opponent are weaker than a starting lineup. That 2nd unit lineup + Durant will not play like a +5 lineup, they'll play maybe like a +7, and Durant will be given more credit than he is actually worth on average.

Now when we account for every kind of lineup played with, much of this is balanced out, so while it may be an issue, it's likely not a big deal in a large sample. If there is an issue, its precisely the opposite of what you are suggesting though.

[bbms]

I don't think so, since I'm trying to discredit the stat by stating that it does a good job analysing rotation, and is not the end of the day analysing someone's impact, specially when one plays almost 5 minutes per game more then the other.

[MisterWestside]

To add to Sideshow Bob's insightful posts, RAPM only accounts for the impact of the player in question within the context of the lineups that he plays in on the floor. How that player is used, player skillset, team fit, coaching/offensive philosophies, etc. are all relevant, and RAPM says nothing about those things; which means that a player with a higher RAPM score isn't necessarily better than a player with a lower score. You the person who views the scores must still make rational and informed inferences on who the league's best players are, even with large sample sizes and while comparing equal MPG players.

[mademan]

Back to back poor games for Durant and now the Thunder are only a game ahead of the Heat. His margin of error is razor thin, he can't have too many games like tonight.

[LBJ-ITALY]

Back to back poor games for Durant and now the Thunder are only a game ahead of the Heat. His margin of error is razor thin, he can't have too many games like tonight.

it is only one game, come one!

[Pure_Basketball]

Does Lillard at least get a mention? He's been clutch as hell lately

Shooting under 40%, there should be a requirement in the MVP race that you have to be shooting at least 43%, under 40% is automatic disqualification.

[xxSnEaKyPxx]

Danny Granger.

With him on the court, a team that had otherwise lost 5 games without him, is undefeated with an average 30 point margin of victory.

Just saying.

[mademan]

Back to back poor games for Durant and now the Thunder are only a game ahead of the Heat. His margin of error is razor thin, he can't have too many games like tonight.

it is only one game, come one!

There's 1 game seperating okc from Miami, 1 game means a lot dude.

[ADawg22]

Does Lillard at least get a mention? He's been clutch as hell lately

Shooting under 40%, there should be a requirement in the MVP race that you have to be shooting at least 43%, under 40% is automatic disqualification.

He's shooting 41%, and he's not 24 either. Do people actually look stuff up before they say them?

[NH13]

Kevin Love just put up a 45/19/6. The Timberwolves didn't win, so I doubt most people will remember it. But it deserves a mention.

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