2013-14 MVP Discussion Thread Pt II

[NaturalThunder]

I thought it was a rather mediocre game.. Grizzlies never had a chance after the first half.. In-fact if the OKC scrubs hadn't blown it, the starters would've never gotten in. It was just points to keep the Grizzlies at bay after the scrubs blew it.

Uhhhh...he scored 30 points in the 2nd half and basically single-handily kept the Grizzlies at bay down the stretch in the 4th after they started the quarter shooting 12/13 from the floor. This was far from a "mediocre" game for Durant. He was HUGE in the clutch and huge, in general, in the second half after a bad first half. Anytime you finish with 37-6-5 on 50% shooting and hit several clutch shots down the stretch against the Grizzlies defense, it's a great game.

[hisairness]

Yeah, I guess its pretty obvious that if Miami had a choice they would prefer to play against OKC, Portland, Clippers, Houston, Spurs, GS, Dallas, Memphis, Phx 4 times per season rather then the likes of Milwaukee, Knicks and Sixers. I mean they do have a better record vs West, so that's not even debatable. They wouldn't have to expend much effort against those teams and Wade would have more chances to rest since Heat wouldn't face as many challenges as they do in the East. Not sure what I was thinking ignoring those stats.

[Gwynplaine]

I thought it was a rather mediocre game.. Grizzlies never had a chance after the first half.. In-fact if the OKC scrubs hadn't blown it, the starters would've never gotten in. It was just points to keep the Grizzlies at bay after the scrubs blew it.

Uhhhh...he scored 30 points in the 2nd half and basically single-handily kept the Grizzlies at bay down the stretch in the 4th after they started the quarter shooting 12/13 from the floor. This was far from a "mediocre" game for Durant. He was HUGE in the clutch and huge, in general, in the second half after a bad first half. Anytime you finish with 37-6-5 on 50% shooting and hit several clutch shots down the stretch against the Grizzlies defense, it's a great game.

Read what I wrote again.. The Grizzlies were down 15 after the first half. 16 after 3 quarters. They were down 16 till 9:30 minutes and OKC's bench blew it. Scott brooks put his starters in against Grizzlies bench at 6 minutes and it stayed like that all the way down to the wire. Only Gasol checked in like at 1 and a half minute left. Even then there was no clutch shot or anything. It was just keeping scrubs at bay. There was no grizzlies defense to speak off. It was just going to the hole on one end and a reply on the other.
The stat-line is good, but I saw the game. The game un-necessarily dragged on.

[ThePersianFreak]

Yeah, I guess its pretty obvious that if Miami had a choice they would prefer to play against OKC, Portland, Clippers, Houston, Spurs, GS, Dallas, Memphis, Phx 4 times per season rather then the likes of Milwaukee, Knicks and Sixers. I mean they do have a better record vs West, so that's not even debatable. They wouldn't have to expend much effort against those teams and Wade would have more chances to rest since Heat wouldn't face as many challenges as they do in the East. Not sure what I was thinking ignoring those stats.

If they played in the West, their chances of winning championship would decrease but it would'nt hurt LeBron's chances of winning MVPs. KD and LeBron are too good for anybody in the league, they would've pretty much the same production either way.
Miami would have the same record it they played in the West (well maybe +-2 Ws).

[NaturalThunder]

I thought it was a rather mediocre game.. Grizzlies never had a chance after the first half.. In-fact if the OKC scrubs hadn't blown it, the starters would've never gotten in. It was just points to keep the Grizzlies at bay after the scrubs blew it.

Uhhhh...he scored 30 points in the 2nd half and basically single-handily kept the Grizzlies at bay down the stretch in the 4th after they started the quarter shooting 12/13 from the floor. This was far from a "mediocre" game for Durant. He was HUGE in the clutch and huge, in general, in the second half after a bad first half. Anytime you finish with 37-6-5 on 50% shooting and hit several clutch shots down the stretch against the Grizzlies defense, it's a great game.

Read what I wrote again.. The Grizzlies were down 15 after the first half. 16 after 3 quarters. They were down 16 till 9:30 minutes and OKC's bench blew it. Scott brooks put his starters in against Grizzlies bench at 6 minutes and it stayed like that all the way down to the wire. Only Gasol checked in like at 1 and a half minute left. Even then there was no clutch shot or anything. It was just keeping scrubs at bay. There was no grizzlies defense to speak off. It was just going to the hole on one end and a reply on the other.
The stat-line is good, but I saw the game. The game un-necessarily dragged on.

Ok, so why should we ignore what Durant did? Who cares how he got there? It was a great game...well, it was a great second half regardless of the situation. His third quarter was better than the fourth quarter, but he still hit some big shots down the stretch to keep Memphis at bay. It's not his fault the bench blew the lead and Memphis went NBA Jam "He's on Fire!!!" mode the first 10 minutes of the quarter.

[aol4532]

Didn't the Lakers use to have(or any random contenders/championship teams) a better record against .500+ teams than less? Since it's over an entire season(though I think it was two or three), the sample is sufficient. You're saying then that if they could play the season again, they would prefer to play the over .500 teams only.

It should be noted that the East is much weaker this year. The last few years, it wasn't as bad, so their splits weren't that much of an anomaly.

[Gwynplaine]

Uhhhh...he scored 30 points in the 2nd half and basically single-handily kept the Grizzlies at bay down the stretch in the 4th after they started the quarter shooting 12/13 from the floor. This was far from a "mediocre" game for Durant. He was HUGE in the clutch and huge, in general, in the second half after a bad first half. Anytime you finish with 37-6-5 on 50% shooting and hit several clutch shots down the stretch against the Grizzlies defense, it's a great game.

Read what I wrote again.. The Grizzlies were down 15 after the first half. 16 after 3 quarters. They were down 16 till 9:30 minutes and OKC's bench blew it. Scott brooks put his starters in against Grizzlies bench at 6 minutes and it stayed like that all the way down to the wire. Only Gasol checked in like at 1 and a half minute left. Even then there was no clutch shot or anything. It was just keeping scrubs at bay. There was no grizzlies defense to speak off. It was just going to the hole on one end and a reply on the other.
The stat-line is good, but I saw the game. The game un-necessarily dragged on.

Ok, so why should we ignore what Durant did? Who cares how he got there? It was a great game...well, it was a great second half regardless of the situation. His third quarter was better than the fourth quarter, but he still hit some big shots down the stretch to keep Memphis at bay. It's not his fault the bench blew the lead and Memphis went NBA Jam "He's on Fire!!!" mode the first 10 minutes of the quarter.

Ok dude.. I can't go on. I just explained why I thought it was a rather mediocre game.
Good for him and you. Happy?

[runlikehell]

Yeah, I guess its pretty obvious that if Miami had a choice they would prefer to play against OKC, Portland, Clippers, Houston, Spurs, GS, Dallas, Memphis, Phx 4 times per season rather then the likes of Milwaukee, Knicks and Sixers. I mean they do have a better record vs West, so that's not even debatable. They wouldn't have to expend much effort against those teams and Wade would have more chances to rest since Heat wouldn't face as many challenges as they do in the East. Not sure what I was thinking ignoring those stats.

Love how you mention the best west teams and then the worst east teams . Its funny though because Milwaukee and the Knicks have played the Heat well in the big three era. Meanwhile, We haven't lost to Dallas since the '11 finals, we have yet to lose to the Suns in the big three era and we've beat the Thunder like 7 out of the last 8 games. So much for that.

[ThePersianFreak]

Didn't the Lakers use to have(or any random contenders/championship teams) a better record against .500+ teams than less? Since it's over an entire season(though I think it was two or three), the sample is sufficient. You're saying then that if they could play the season again, they would prefer to play the over .500 teams only.

No, LeBron and the Heat preffer to play in the East. it allows them to play lazy basketball, rest D-Wade and still have a good record. but it does'nt mean if they played in the West they could'nt win as much, they just had to play harder (wich they would, if they were playing in the West).

[aol4532]

But if you have to play harder, then your injury chances go up. Lebron doesn't get to rest that back either. Quite frankly, I don't know why the Thunder are playing so hard, except to get Durant that MVP, because their home/road split shows that they don't really need HC that much.

[hisairness]

Yeah, I guess its pretty obvious that if Miami had a choice they would prefer to play against OKC, Portland, Clippers, Houston, Spurs, GS, Dallas, Memphis, Phx 4 times per season rather then the likes of Milwaukee, Knicks and Sixers. I mean they do have a better record vs West, so that's not even debatable. They wouldn't have to expend much effort against those teams and Wade would have more chances to rest since Heat wouldn't face as many challenges as they do in the East. Not sure what I was thinking ignoring those stats.

Love how you mention the best west teams and then the worst east teams . Its funny though because Milwaukee and the Knicks have played the Heat well in the big three era. Meanwhile, We haven't lost to Dallas since the '11 finals, we have yet to lose to the Suns in the big three era and we've beat the Thunder like 7 out of the last 8 games. So much for that.

Yeah, why would I use that example to make a point? I wonder if disparity between two conferences would have been showcased better if i used Pacers as an example.

Love how you walked right past my point, which wasn't that Heat wouldn't be a top team in the West but they simply wouldn't have the privilege to pick and choose which game they can up the effort and which games they can cruise and even allow Wade to rest. Maybe it would actually help Lebron MVP chances since he would have to cut down on coasting.

[James Rustles]

This game from Durant doesn't really change anything. He still has a sizable lead in the MVP race and will win his first MVP barring the Heat going practically undefeated for the rest of the season (which would be foolish if it came at the expense of Wade getting too much of a workload).

KD's putting up what, 31/8/6 on nearly 50/40/90 and has his team with the best record in the tough West despite missing Westbrook for most of the season so far? Not sure why anyone would have ever put LeBron in the lead for MVP. He's quite a bit behind Durant and has been for a few months now.

[runlikehell]

Yeah, I guess its pretty obvious that if Miami had a choice they would prefer to play against OKC, Portland, Clippers, Houston, Spurs, GS, Dallas, Memphis, Phx 4 times per season rather then the likes of Milwaukee, Knicks and Sixers. I mean they do have a better record vs West, so that's not even debatable. They wouldn't have to expend much effort against those teams and Wade would have more chances to rest since Heat wouldn't face as many challenges as they do in the East. Not sure what I was thinking ignoring those stats.

Love how you mention the best west teams and then the worst east teams . Its funny though because Milwaukee and the Knicks have played the Heat well in the big three era. Meanwhile, We haven't lost to Dallas since the '11 finals, we have yet to lose to the Suns in the big three era and we've beat the Thunder like 7 out of the last 8 games. So much for that.

Yeah, why would I use that example to make a point? I wonder if disparity between two conferences would have been showcased better if i used Pacers as an example.

Love how you walked right past my point, which wasn't that Heat wouldn't be a top team in the West but they simply wouldn't have the privilege to pick and choose which game they can up the effort and which games they can cruise and even allow Wade to rest. Maybe it would actually help Lebron MVP chances since he would have to cut down on coasting.

You also conveniently left out the Bulls, who the Heat always struggle against. And yeah, the Pacers only have the best record in the league. No big deal The point was you named a bunch of teams Miami has no trouble against and then name probably the three worst teams in the east atm, while leaving out the two teams that give Miami the most trouble.

And yes, it would. Lebron loves big games.

[runlikehell]

This game from Durant doesn't really change anything. He still has a sizable lead in the MVP race and will win his first MVP barring the Heat going practically undefeated for the rest of the season (which would be foolish if it came at the expense of Wade getting too much of a workload).

KD's putting up what, 31/8/6 on nearly 50/40/90 and has his team with the best record in the tough West despite missing Westbrook for most of the season so far? Not sure why anyone would have ever put LeBron in the lead for MVP.

This troll sure likes rounding up

[hisairness]

Love how you mention the best west teams and then the worst east teams . Its funny though because Milwaukee and the Knicks have played the Heat well in the big three era. Meanwhile, We haven't lost to Dallas since the '11 finals, we have yet to lose to the Suns in the big three era and we've beat the Thunder like 7 out of the last 8 games. So much for that.

Yeah, why would I use that example to make a point? I wonder if disparity between two conferences would have been showcased better if i used Pacers as an example.

Love how you walked right past my point, which wasn't that Heat wouldn't be a top team in the West but they simply wouldn't have the privilege to pick and choose which game they can up the effort and which games they can cruise and even allow Wade to rest. Maybe it would actually help Lebron MVP chances since he would have to cut down on coasting.

You also conveniently left out the Bulls, who the Heat always struggle against. And yeah, the Pacers only have the best record in the league. No big deal The point was you named a bunch of teams Miami has no trouble against and then name probably the three worst teams in the east atm, while leaving out the two teams that give Miami the most trouble.

And yes, it would. Lebron loves big games.

Yeah, when I try to point out that one conference has higher quantity of quality opponents I should have listed two other quality opponents in Miami's conference bcuz that helps my case how exactly ? And yeah, keep believing that Miami would just obliterate the West in a full season based on your match up records. We're done here, I even gave you an accidental and1.

[runlikehell]

Yeah, why would I use that example to make a point? I wonder if disparity between two conferences would have been showcased better if i used Pacers as an example.

Love how you walked right past my point, which wasn't that Heat wouldn't be a top team in the West but they simply wouldn't have the privilege to pick and choose which game they can up the effort and which games they can cruise and even allow Wade to rest. Maybe it would actually help Lebron MVP chances since he would have to cut down on coasting.

You also conveniently left out the Bulls, who the Heat always struggle against. And yeah, the Pacers only have the best record in the league. No big deal The point was you named a bunch of teams Miami has no trouble against and then name probably the three worst teams in the east atm, while leaving out the two teams that give Miami the most trouble.

And yes, it would. Lebron loves big games.

Yeah, when I try to point out that one conference has higher quantity of quality opponents I should have listed two other quality opponents in Miami's conference bcuz that helps my case how exactly ? And yeah, keep believing that Miami would just obliterate the West in a full season based on your match up records. We're done here, I even gave you an accidental and1.

I will. The numbers don't lie If Miami actually struggled against some of these west teams you'd have a strong argument, but they don't....at all.

Btw if Miami played in the west, we'd play Indiana and Chicago 2 less games each at least. They play the Heat the best. I'd take that.

[Hero]

KD stopped the bleeding with the win tonight. First time in a while the MVP race will come down to the wire. A month ago I thought there was so little chance that LeBron could win it but he really can step it up when he wants to. He has another gear that noone else has.

[James Rustles]

This game from Durant doesn't really change anything. He still has a sizable lead in the MVP race and will win his first MVP barring the Heat going practically undefeated for the rest of the season (which would be foolish if it came at the expense of Wade getting too much of a workload).

KD's putting up what, 31/8/6 on nearly 50/40/90 and has his team with the best record in the tough West despite missing Westbrook for most of the season so far? Not sure why anyone would have ever put LeBron in the lead for MVP.

This troll sure likes rounding up

Nah, I rounded up everything .5 or greater but forgot about the 31.5 points. So rounding up everything .5 or greater you get

32/8/6.



With Durant doing that on almost 50/40/90, LeBron has literally no case for MVP right now. He has played well, but Durant is just on another planet.

[Doctor MJ]

I'll also note in general that not only is Durant way ahead of LeBron this year by every box score metric imaginable, all serious regression data says the same thing. That's not the sort of thing voters will understand, but as analysts its clear that Durant basically has the edge everywhere you can possibly look.

I just want to point out that this isn't true. The MOV regression data leans towards James (I don't see the utility of NPI RAPM with a 55 game sample). Box-score regression leans in Durant's favor (J.E.'s SPM incorporates some more variables than the traditional stuff). Only two hybrids, one prefers Durant, and the other has them even (though mystic posted his numbers prior to James getting this tear going).

+/- Regression

TP NPI RAPM: Durant +4.7, James +0.8

TP PI RAPM: Durant +4.9, James +5.9

J.E. Vanilla RAPM: Durant +3.9, James +5.6

Box-Score Regression/SPM

J.E. SPM: Durant +3.6, James +5.1

DSMok1 ASPM: Durant +8.1, James +7.5

EvanZ ezPM: Durant +12.1, James +9.5

Hybrid

TP IPV: Durant +7.2, James +4.4

mysticbb: Durant +6, James +6

Well, it's good you responded and gave these other points of you.

I'll re-phrase:

All stats that rely solely on this year's +/- data show clear signs of Durant being much more impactful than LeBron.

Data that relies on priors sees this edge completely disappear. Basically telling you that if you go in assuming LeBron's making everything happen based on previous year, the actual machine learning won't show any indication that there really isn't any correlation to speak of when looking just at this year.

Some would argue undoubtedly that this is why you need prior-informing so that you don't overreact to small sample size. However, given Durant's clear superiority in box score metrics, LeBron showing clear signs that he's coasting, and how shocking it was that Durant did what he did with Westbrook out, to me all this is just showing why it's problematic to only look at prior-informed data.

The methods geared toward giving us the best results on average over the NBA do so with more convoluted approaches which at times can lead us far from the mark.

[lorak]

^
Doc is right, SIdeshowBob. Basically only metrics with past season(s) element have LJ over Durant. But if we look only at what happened this year, then KD is clearly better. And it's not surprise considering LJ coasted first half of the season.

And BTW, it's not true that NPI 55 game sample of RAPM isn't useful. That's more than half season and mysticbb clearly have said that 25% of season is enough to have reliable result in NPI RAPM.