2018/19 ROY/Rookie Discussion Thread

[NoDopeOnSundays]

Doncic is built like a truck driver and he's still good, can't imagine how good he'll be when he gets a full offseason with NBA strength and conditioning to work on his body.

Imagine him going through the Oladipo transformation

I thought he would be good, but he looks like a generational talent at times and it's confusing because he's so clearly not in great shape. His skillset and passing vision are out of this world, and they're out of this galaxy when you remember he's only 19.

[Bob8]

this kinda illogical. the most turnovers in the league have stars, like Giannis, Harden, Booker, Westbrook... you don' need to complicate too much. it' pretty simple, stars have great counting stats and solid efficiency numbers. If you see someone with 25/6/6 with solid TS%, you for sure have seen an all-star player and possibly superstar in making. +/-, BPM and similar are totally irrelevant.

is not illogical

as all-star player intend a impact player not a most voted by the fans in the all-star game

Giannis, Harden and RW have most turnover because they have an high USG%... if they could reduce the number of TO, their impact would be even greater

they have something else in common. they’re creating for them and others. players, who are just standing under the rim and waiting for the pass will always have lower numbers of TO. and nobody cares, if 30/10/8 player have 2 TO instead of 4.

[J_T]

Speaking of strange stats, here is one where Doncic ranks second in the league:

DeMar DeRozan SAS 2.9 (1.62 + 1.27)
Luka Doncic DAL 2.7 (1.53 + 1.17)
Rodney McGruder MIA 2.68 (1.48 + 1.19)
Donovan Mitchell UTA 2.67 (1.48 + 1.19)
Jrue Holiday NOP 2.66 (1.44 + 1.23)
Nicolas Batum CHA 2.63 (1.4 + 1.23)
Kawhi Leonard TOR 2.61 (1.42 + 1.2)
Wesley Matthews DAL 2.61 (1.44 + 1.17)
Buddy Hield SAC 2.6 (1.41 + 1.2)
De'Aaron Fox SAC 2.6 (1.38 + 1.22)

Last season the best in the league was 2.69 (1.52 + 1.17)

what stats is?

Distance covered per game (in miles).

[Capn'O]

Read on Twitter

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

I'm still mad we drafted the 2nd best UK player. Shai is a beast. They need to start him.

I wanna see Vanderbilt too

[IllmaticHandler]

Bagley Jumper is looking sweet to be this raw. Pulling up at 6'11 like nothing.


Yall can be quiet, but Bags is balling in his minutes for the Kings.

[clyde21]

Bamba with 5 blocks in 25 minutes tonight.

[Bob8]

Some considerations about BPM (rookie players with mpg>23).

Player Age MP TS PER TOV% USG% BPM
Luka Doncic /19 /35.7/0.579 /14.5 /19.5 /25.4 /-2.3
Trae Young /20 /31.5/0.518 /14.6 /14.5 /26.6 /-3.1
Deandre Ayton /20 /31.2/0.667 /24 /8.2 /19.9 /4.5
Josh Okogie /20 /27.8/0.422 /9.3 /10.8 /19 /-3.7
Shai Gilgeous /20 /26.5/0.592 /13.7 /19.4 /15 /3.4
Jaren Jackson /19 /25/0.540 /18.1 /7.7 /23.2 /2.7
Wendell Carter /19 /23.7/0.480 /12.2 /13.6 /19.1 /-3.2
Collin Sexton /20 /23.5/0.522 /10.8 /14.6 /22.3 /-7.6
Marvin Bagley /19 /23.3/0.578 /18 /18.1 /23.7 /-0.1

The best players based on BPM are:
Ayton
Shai
JJ
Bagley
Doncic
Trae

The most important part of BPM formula is (see BBref glossary):
- g*USG%*TO% + h*USG%*(1-TO%)*[2*(TS% - TmTS%)

so the ADVANCED parameters most important are USG%, TO% and TS%.

IMO to have potential all-star caliber players we must have at least 35mpg, with high USG%, high TS% and possibly low TO rate.

Ayton very low TO%, high TS%, low USG (<20%) => increase 4mpg and USG%, mantaining TO e TS% => BPM+ (possible)
Shai very high TO% , good TS%, very low USG (15%) => increase 8 mpg and USG% and reduce TO => big boost BPM++ (difficult but possible)
JJ very low TO%, average TS% good usage rate (23%) => increase 10mpg mantain adv stats (difficult)
Bagley high TO%, good TS%, good USG% (23.7) => increase 12 mpg (difficult)
Doncic very high TO% , good TS%, very high USG (>25%) => ok mpg only reduce TO% => big boost BPM++ (very possible)
Trae high TO%, low TS%, very high USG (>25%) => +3 mpg only increase TS% => big boost BPM++ (very possible)

I see Ayton, Doncic, Trae (I was an unbeliever, numbers and eye test make me believer) and Shai in this order.

Shai is a steal at 11 pick.

p.s.
35mpg is a minutage of veteran all-star player not a rookie

this kinda illogical. the most turnovers in the league have stars, like Giannis, Harden, Booker, Westbrook... you don' need to complicate too much. it' pretty simple, stars have great counting stats and solid efficiency numbers. If you see someone with 25/6/6 with solid TS%, you for sure have seen an all-star player and possibly superstar in making. +/-, BPM and similar are totally irrelevant.

Simmons just had triple double with 11 TO. I just wonder what BPM will do to him.

[burek3]

Simmons just had triple double with 11 TO. I just wonder what BPM will do to him.

You really are determined to fight this cause, huh?

[Bob8]

Simmons just had triple double with 11 TO. I just wonder what BPM will do to him.

You really are determined to fight this cause, huh?

do you remember Sasa Kaun, who played for Cska? career FG% 70, low TO%...Put him in this equation and superstar will come out. In reality he couldn’t do anything except shoot from 0.5-1 meter. Garbage in, garbage out.

[Archx]

Doncic is built like a truck driver and he's still good, can't imagine how good he'll be when he gets a full offseason with NBA strength and conditioning to work on his body.

Imagine him going through the Oladipo transformation

I thought he would be good, but he looks like a generational talent at times and it's confusing because he's so clearly not in great shape. His skillset and passing vision are out of this world, and they're out of this galaxy when you remember he's only 19.

After the Spurs game he gave an interview for foreign media and he said he is intensively working on getting into a better shape. He knows he needs to get stronger etc... So at least next season, he will probably look much better.
And he also was asked about those 35mpg and he said that he absolutely loves to play a lot of minutes. So i guess for now, it doesn't drain too much of his energy. And also it's not like he is 40yo lol... On the plus side, i did notice his arms are getting a bit stronger. Few months ago when he played for Real, he had chubby arms, but you can see he is slowly gaining some muscles.

[mcmurphy]

Some considerations about BPM (rookie players with mpg>23).

Player Age MP TS PER TOV% USG% BPM
Luka Doncic /19 /35.7/0.579 /14.5 /19.5 /25.4 /-2.3
Trae Young /20 /31.5/0.518 /14.6 /14.5 /26.6 /-3.1
Deandre Ayton /20 /31.2/0.667 /24 /8.2 /19.9 /4.5
Josh Okogie /20 /27.8/0.422 /9.3 /10.8 /19 /-3.7
Shai Gilgeous /20 /26.5/0.592 /13.7 /19.4 /15 /3.4
Jaren Jackson /19 /25/0.540 /18.1 /7.7 /23.2 /2.7
Wendell Carter /19 /23.7/0.480 /12.2 /13.6 /19.1 /-3.2
Collin Sexton /20 /23.5/0.522 /10.8 /14.6 /22.3 /-7.6
Marvin Bagley /19 /23.3/0.578 /18 /18.1 /23.7 /-0.1

The best players based on BPM are:
Ayton
Shai
JJ
Bagley
Doncic
Trae

The most important part of BPM formula is (see BBref glossary):
- g*USG%*TO% + h*USG%*(1-TO%)*[2*(TS% - TmTS%)

so the ADVANCED parameters most important are USG%, TO% and TS%.

IMO to have potential all-star caliber players we must have at least 35mpg, with high USG%, high TS% and possibly low TO rate.

Ayton very low TO%, high TS%, low USG (<20%) => increase 4mpg and USG%, mantaining TO e TS% => BPM+ (possible)
Shai very high TO% , good TS%, very low USG (15%) => increase 8 mpg and USG% and reduce TO => big boost BPM++ (difficult but possible)
JJ very low TO%, average TS% good usage rate (23%) => increase 10mpg mantain adv stats (difficult)
Bagley high TO%, good TS%, good USG% (23.7) => increase 12 mpg (difficult)
Doncic very high TO% , good TS%, very high USG (>25%) => ok mpg only reduce TO% => big boost BPM++ (very possible)
Trae high TO%, low TS%, very high USG (>25%) => +3 mpg only increase TS% => big boost BPM++ (very possible)

I see Ayton, Doncic, Trae (I was an unbeliever, numbers and eye test make me believer) and Shai in this order.

Shai is a steal at 11 pick.

p.s.
35mpg is a minutage of veteran all-star player not a rookie

this kinda illogical. the most turnovers in the league have stars, like Giannis, Harden, Booker, Westbrook... you don' need to complicate too much. it' pretty simple, stars have great counting stats and solid efficiency numbers. If you see someone with 25/6/6 with solid TS%, you for sure have seen an all-star player and possibly superstar in making. +/-, BPM and similar are totally irrelevant.

Simmons just had triple double with 11 TO. I just wonder what BPM will do to him.

It does not seem so difficult to understand my point...
Don't you think the 11 TO helped to make Phila lose?
Simmons has a great impact because besides filling stats sheets has a good AST/TO ratio

For one guard a AST/TO ratio of 3 or 1 is the same for you?

If a big as Cousins has 5 TO per game is not important for you?

In the modern game with the high pace the TOs are very important because they are doubly penalizing causing lightning fast break.

jez..

[stoo]

This is google translated page from serbian news site, about Doncic and his achievements in NBA so far, compared to some great NBA players. Interesting read

Sorry, i just checked and can't copy translated link, so if you can do it yourself, still interesting read

https://www.b92.net/sport/teme/kovacevic.php?yyyy=2018&mm=10&nav_id=1462947

[mcmurphy]

Simmons just had triple double with 11 TO. I just wonder what BPM will do to him.

do you think has been a great game?
6-7 TO over his average may correspond to 15-16 points (1.1-1.2 ppp for his possession and 1.3-1.4 ppp for opponent, so around 2.5 ppp)...

do you remember Sasa Kaun, who played for Cska? career FG% 70, low TO%...Put him in this equation and superstar will come out. In reality he couldn’t do anything except shoot from 0.5-1 meter. Garbage in, garbage out.

Do you know what is it Usage Rate?
Do you know why DAJ despite having low TO, high TS, high rebounds has four time less BPM of RW?

[Bob8]

this kinda illogical. the most turnovers in the league have stars, like Giannis, Harden, Booker, Westbrook... you don' need to complicate too much. it' pretty simple, stars have great counting stats and solid efficiency numbers. If you see someone with 25/6/6 with solid TS%, you for sure have seen an all-star player and possibly superstar in making. +/-, BPM and similar are totally irrelevant.

Simmons just had triple double with 11 TO. I just wonder what BPM will do to him.

It does not seem so difficult to understand my point...
Don't you think the 11 TO helped to make Phila lose?
Simmons has a great impact because besides filling stats sheets has a good AST/TO ratio

For one guard a AST/TO ratio of 3 or 1 is the same for you?

If a big as Cousins has 5 TO per game is not important for you?

In the modern game with the high pace the TOs are very important because they are doubly penalizing causing lightning fast break.

jez..

and still many superstars have big number of TOs.

[mcmurphy]

and still many superstars have big number of TOs.

ok, you win

[E-Balla]

Bagley Jumper is looking sweet to be this raw. Pulling up at 6'11 like nothing.


Yall can be quiet, but Bags is balling in his minutes for the Kings.

But he can't have a jumper his FT% wasn't high!

... Tired of people around here ignoring the obvious. He was 40% from deep last year of course he can shoot.

[kg01]

I'm learning that the absolute best thing about the ROY thread is that it's about Ben Simmons every year. Not even kidding. Don't ever change, GB.

[Bob8]

and still many superstars have big number of TOs.

ok, you win

I know you want the best, but maybe some adjustments should be made. Because it looks to me that big number of turnovers is almost essential for stardom.

https://stats.nba.com/leaders/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StatCategory=TOV

[Archx]

This is google translated page from serbian news site, about Doncic and his achievements in NBA so far, compared to some great NBA players. Interesting read

Sorry, i just checked and can't copy translated link, so if you can do it yourself, still interesting read

https://www.b92.net/sport/teme/kovacevic.php?yyyy=2018&mm=10&nav_id=1462947

It's basically the same thing that everyone is saying by now, so nothing new really. Except that i have no clue why Serbs think that he should play for their team. He is not even a Serb.. but whatever.

[clyde21]

I can tell Luka discussions are going to be so crappy moving forward.