Ainosterhaspie wrote:LeBron's case is much more than longevity, but yes, that is a big part of his case. Dismissing it is necessary to make the best case for Jordan, but doing so is obviously an agenda driven move, not a good faith examination of their respective careers.
There is plenty of pushback that can be applied to your post here. Also a lot of inaccuracies.
LeBron has 13 1st team all NBA awards compared to Jordan's 10, but I guess we're supposed to ignore that as meaningless longevity.
LeBron was winning playoff series at age 22, while Jordan didn't win any until age 25, but I supposes we should just ignore that as meaningless longevity.
LeBron was still winning playoff series at age 39 while Jordan's last win come at age 35, but we're apparently supposed to ignore that as meaningless longevity.
LeBron was the best player on an NBA team at age 19, Jordan didn't manage that until age 21. LeBron was top two in MVP voting at age 21 and age 35. Jordan was slower to get to that level (age 23) and skipped seasons during that window. More meaningless longevity for LeBron.
So let's just pretend a bunch of Lebron's career, multiple seasons of all NBA play, seasons where he's winning playoff games, leading his team in scoring and assists never happened. What's the case for LeBron when we throw all that out?
Jordan won his first MVP at age 24/25 and his last at age 34/35. 5 MVP's overall. 10 years apart.
Lebron won his first MVP at age 24 and his last at age 28. 4 MVP's overall. 4 years apart.
Jordan got his first All-Defense selection at age 24/25 and his last at age 34/35. 9 total selections. 10 years apart.
Lebron got his first All-Defense selection at age 24 and his last at age 29. 6 total selections. 5 years apart.
Is that meaningless longevity?
He's bigger than Jordan and near his match for speed. Just looking at raw physical tools he has an edge over Jordan where mass, length and height are an advantage on both ends of the floor.
Lebron may be almost as fast running at full speed but he's nowhere near Jordan in terms of short bursts. MJ is way more agile with a clearly superior acceleration/first step and better at changing directions. He also has a higher vertical jump, a superior motor and bigger hands. In fact, overall, despite the size difference in Lebron's favour, I'd say Jordan was clearly the superior athlete.
He is a significantly better defender compared to Jordan. He won three titles as his team's clear best defender. Jordan can't make that claim even once. For at least half his finals wins, Jordan was his team's third best defender.
It's very arguable who the better defender is.
LeBron is a better rebounder and playmaker.
Lebron is the better defensive rebounder. The generally more impactful offensive rebounding is a wash.
Playmaking is edge Lebron but not by nearly a margin that some people pretend it is. Being a superior passer which Lebron is isn't the same as being the superior playmaker. Stats like Box Creation from Thinking Basketball have prime Jordan as equal to prime Lebron in the playoffs.
LeBron during his title window (2012 to 2020) was the more efficient scorer both in the regular season (.607 vs. .569 TS%) and playoffs (.596, vs .558 TS%). He is better at the most efficient shots in the game, at the rim and from three. He is a more dominant transition force.
It makes no sense to compare absolute efficiency. Otherwise Jokic is the offensive GOAT and it isn't close.
In terms of relative efficiency, Lebron has a very small career edge (1% edge in rTS in the playoffs) while scoring at a much lower volume (5 pts/75 behind in the playoffs).
Jordan has the edge in raw scoring mostly due to differences in playstyle. LeBron is more focused on getting the best scoring opportunities for the team, while Jordan looks for the most scoring opportunities for himself. This makes LeBron a lower volume scorer but higher efficiency scorer, who has and uses the ability to score in high volume and efficency even against elite playoff defenses and defenders.
This is just coping. Lebron is nowhere close to Jordan as a scorer.
As an aside, individual scoring is one of the most overrated metrics in basketball. It has a low correlation with winning finals. It is rare for the NBA scoring leader to win titles. More teams since 1970 have won with their leading scorer being outside the NBA top 10 than with the NBA leading scorer.
Jordan didn't win titles in his three highest individual scoring seasons and didn't even win a playoff game in his highest individual scoring season. Four of his top five PPG seasons did not lead to finals wins. The same holds true in the playoffs where he didn't win the finals in his top 4 playoff PPG averages and didn't win a single game in two of his top four playoff scoring averages.
Wilt's career tells a similar story in more stark terms. He was an even more dominant scorer than Jordan at his peak, yet was consistently beaten by a better defensive star who wasn't an impressive scorer and only won titles when he lowered his scoring output.
Correlation doesn't imply causation.
There is definite negative correlation between the team's top scorer shot attempts and winning. That's because good teams generally have enough balance not to rely on one man scoring the ball that much. Not because somehow one man scoring is bad for the team.
Heck, Jordan's ability to carry that much of an offensive load (the highest ever!) and win championships can be a feather in his cap, not an argument against him. It is difficult to do what he did. He scored the highest proportion of his teams' points in title runs than anyone else in history.
Through 2017, LeBron had faced and beaten better teams in the playoffs compared to Jordan, most notably the 2016 Warriors. LeBron had faced seven teams with an SRS of 8 or higher. Jordan faced just one such team in his career. LeBron beat one of those teams and has an 11-23 overall record. Jordan's record is 0-3. LeBron has faced three SRS 10+ teams while Jordan's highest SRS opponent was 9.06.
There is no argument that Jordan faced or beat opponents as good as the best teams LeBron faced and in one case beat. LeBron managed to pull off three wins against the 9.3 SRS Celtics with a supporting cast no better than the one Jordan had when he was swept by the SRS 9.06 87 Celtics
Lebron faced more elite teams but he only ever beat one which is the 2016 Warriors. And of course, that team was playing nowhere near a 73-win team in the playoffs. Their rNet in the playoffs is +8.7 which is 23rd out of the last 30 teams to make the Finals (2010-2024). And they only got worse putting up just +6.2 rNet from the 2nd round onwards. Mediocre. This was no juggernaut.
If we loosen the criteria a bit and look at 5+ SRS teams (which is usually the cutoff for strong contenders roughly 55-win pace), then Lebron played 15 such teams in 54 playoff series (27.8%) and went 5-10 against them. Jordan played 21 such teams in 37 playoff series (56.8%) and went 14-7 against them.
All in all, Lebron faced a few more elite teams but also a lot more mediocre teams and against good teams which is a bigger sample size Jordan faced a lot more and beat a lot more.
LeBron has a better five year peak than Jordan. There is no five year span for Jordan as good as LeBron from 2012 to 2016 where he won three titles and went to five consecutive finals. LeBron made eight straight finals while Jordan maxed out at less than half that and lacked the stamina and drive to attempt more than three straight.
Jordan from 1989-1993 beats any Lebron stretch. Lebron's best performances can match Jordan's but Lebron had way more low end performances. For example, in that 2012-2016 span, the 2013 Finals and much of the 2015 playoffs were much worse than any Jordan series.
LeBron has more playoff buzzer beating game winners than Jordan and Kobe combined. LeBron is significantly better in elimination games than Jordan.
More buzzer beaters ok. Jordan is clearly superior in playoff crunch time numbers. See
here.
LeBron in 2013 was as good as any version of Jordan or near enough so as to be indistinguishable. He was a 40% three point shooter, much better finisher at the rim, could defend all five positions at an elite level, and was his team's defensive anchor, leading scorer and best playmaker. His best teammate was struggling through injury the whole post season, yet he led his team to a title. When that team was healthy and finally had a real center following the Chris Anderson acquisition, it ran off the second longest single season winning streak in league history and had just three losses in the second half of the season.
He played much worse in the 2013 playoffs than any pre-1993 Jordan.
At best, Jordan has a narrow edge in peak and prime while there is a gaping chasm between the two players when it comes to total years playing at an elite level at or near the top of the NBA. LeBron has a strong case for better, longer peak, better, longer prime and clearly was the better player in extended prime and non-prime years.
No, LeBron doesn't only have longevity and hypotheticals on his side in the GOAT debate.
To make a peak argument for Lebron, you have to pretend that all of his best attributes came together in one season. 2009 motor, 2013 post game, 2016 defense, 2018 poise, 2024 3pt shooting. Put all those together and Lebron is better than Jordan. But that version of Lebron doesn't exist. Every single version of Lebron had major weaknesses.
Jordan around 1991 really did put it all together as a basketball player. The stats bear that out but so does the eye test. Finishing inside, shooting, passing, poise, defense, leadership, experience, IQ and still very athletic... it all came together.
And to make a prime argument for Lebron, you have to ignore his low points being much worse than Jordan's low points and just say they are the same because high points are similar. Any consecutive 5-year stretch for Lebron must include either 2011 or 2015. Any 10-year stretch must include both. Any 12-year stretch must include both of those plus 2019.
When it comes down to it, Lebron's peak/prime are worse than Jordan he's accomplished less than Jordan. In an all-time draft hypothetical with a caveat "Who would you pick in an all-time draft assuming they can never leave your team?" Lebron is taken ahead of Jordan. No arguments there. But in a straight up all-time draft situation where you wouldn't get guarantees that Lebron stays on your team, I doubt the majority draft Lebron over Jordan despite his longevity edge.
One other note, the key difference between 20 and 94/95 is that in 20, the whole league faced the same challenge/benefit, depending on how you look at those missed games, while in 94/95, Jordan alone reaped the benefits/challenges from a year plus of mental and physical rejuvenation.
Jordan wasn't smoking cigars and banging hookers for 18 months. He was training like a maniac to play another professional sport. Claiming he was reaping benefits of mental and physical rejuvenation is just a comically bad take.