Cooper Flagg

[tsherkin]

Cooper Flagg’s ceiling is a millionaires Brent Barry. I see him averaging around 20 PPG. Everybody needs to slow their roll.

Did you even watch Brent Barry?

They aren't even remotely similar, other than being white. WTF?

Yeah, I watched him. You don’t like my comparison? Ok, his ceiling is a rich man’s Tom Gugliotta. Better?

No, that's another fairly ridiculous comparison as a ceiling.

EDIT: And Brent Barry was just an awful comparison; not even remotely similar in body type, style of play or skillset.

[Hair Jordan]

Did you even watch Brent Barry?

They aren't even remotely similar, other than being white. WTF?

Yeah, I watched him. You don’t like my comparison? Ok, his ceiling is a rich man’s Tom Gugliotta. Better?

No, that's another fairly ridiculous comparison as a ceiling.

EDIT: And Brent Barry was just an awful comparison; not even remotely similar in body type, style of play or skillset.

Time will prove me right.

[tsherkin]

Yeah, I watched him. You don’t like my comparison? Ok, his ceiling is a rich man’s Tom Gugliotta. Better?

No, that's another fairly ridiculous comparison as a ceiling.

EDIT: And Brent Barry was just an awful comparison; not even remotely similar in body type, style of play or skillset.

Time will prove me right.

Time won't make your Brent Barry comparison any less asinine. Flagg isn't a 6'6 movement shooter, so comparing him to Barry was ridiculous.

Googs, the one-time All-Star who had an injury-shortened career, probably isn't a particularly good comparison either. Even with your "rich man's" addendum. Didn't really have anything like Flagg's defensive potential. Googs was also a pretty good passer, particularly for a classical PF, whereas Flagg is more of a large wing. Stylistically, it doesn't really make a lot of sense.

So again, we're talking about guys you appear to be selecting because they're white, not because they are in any way comparable to Flagg as a player.

[The Master]

Better broad-value prospect, sure. Doesn't project as an MVP-level guy even still.

MVP-level is the best case scenario for almost every player, so rarely anyone 'projects' as an MVP-level guy, and even if he does (AD, maybe Oden, Zion) it doesn't necessarily mean he'll reach this level (as this 3 did not for multiple reasons, maybe bubble AD would be an exception).

It's semantics though - like @Braggins said - most players with whom Flagg is compared with was clearly inferior as prospects to Flagg despite being older, in most cases with a full draft class disparity, in their draft years. Again, it doesn't mean Flagg will be a better NBA player, growth isn't 'comparative', steady and exponential, but it should put into perspective how great as a prospect Flagg is. You literally mentioned Blake Griffin (#1 pick, top10 player in the league in multiple seasons) as a potential career outcome despite the facts that 1) it's hard to argue peak wise Blake didn't meet his hype (3rd in the MVP voting on +7 SRS team, he just wasn't healthy enough to reproduce that), 2) Flagg is a tier better prospect.

Not to mention that, considering:

- he's one of the most productive freshmen in the recent years,
- he reclassified from 2026 draft, so in some instances even one and done prospects like Simmons or Mobley were 18 months older than Flagg in their D-seasons,
- rarely any wing player is as advanced as Flagg in terms of defensive impact and point forward skills (who would be a comparison among these top prospects in these areas?),
- very efficient scorer on collegiate level (20PPG on 59.3TS%),
- easily translatable skills,
- high projection as a shooter (+80%FT with >130 attempts),

his upside is ridiculously high.

[mattg]

A bigger Jimmy Butler who is a better shooter is more and more what Flagg looks like as a player. And that's really, really freaking good. Maybe not the singular best player in the league, but a perennial All-NBA, and an archetype that fits with just about any type of teammates and is conducive to winning. How that jumper comes along is key, he'll be good even if it's mediocre, but if Flagg becomes a legit knockdown shooter then you're looking at a rich man's Kawhi Leonard.

[tsherkin]

You literally mentioned Blake Griffin (#1 pick, top10 player in the league in multiple seasons) as a potential career outcome despite the facts that 1) it's hard to argue peak wise Blake didn't meet his hype (3rd in the MVP voting on +7 SRS team, he just wasn't healthy enough to reproduce that), 2) Flagg is a tier better prospect.

Flagg projects as a very good player. I haven't been arguing against that. I was specifically discussing the idea that it isn't controversial to hold the opinion that he doesn't project as an MVP-caliber player.

[Hair Jordan]

No, that's another fairly ridiculous comparison as a ceiling.

EDIT: And Brent Barry was just an awful comparison; not even remotely similar in body type, style of play or skillset.

Time will prove me right.

Time won't make your Brent Barry comparison any less asinine. Flagg isn't a 6'6 movement shooter, so comparing him to Barry was ridiculous.

Googs, the one-time All-Star who had an injury-shortened career, probably isn't a particularly good comparison either. Even with your "rich man's" addendum. Didn't really have anything like Flagg's defensive potential. Googs was also a pretty good passer, particularly for a classical PF, whereas Flagg is more of a large wing. Stylistically, it doesn't really make a lot of sense.

So again, we're talking about guys you appear to be selecting because they're white, not because they are in any way comparable to Flagg as a player.

Time will be the judge. I’ve called out scores of busts dating back to the late 80’s and early 90’s: Danny Ferry, George McCloud, Randy White, Reggie Williams, Bobby Hurley, Billy Owens, Felipe Lopez, Kenny Anderson, Harold Minor, Anthony Peeler, Zion Williamson etc. I’m usually on the mark. I have missed a few but not many. Mark my words and don’t forget this conversation. Flagg is overhyped and not because of the content of his character.

[The Master]

A bigger Jimmy Butler who is a better shooter is more and more what Flagg looks like as a player. And that's really, really freaking good. Maybe not the singular best player in the league, but a perennial All-NBA, and an archetype that fits with just about any type of teammates and is conducive to winning. How that jumper comes along is key, he'll be good even if it's mediocre, but if Flagg becomes a legit knockdown shooter then you're looking at a rich man's Kawhi Leonard.

Yup, a bigger and better shooting Jimmy Butler is the MVP-level player, considering actual Butler had multiple highly efficient 27-7-5 two-way playoff runs and 26-8-10 finals performance, and he was perennial All-NBA player on his own. Imagine Jimmy just being a decent spot up shooter.

And yeah, his jumper will be a key: him being at >80%FT as an 18yo in contemporary basketball is crazy good, his actual projection is to become a very good shooter. This is the easiest to fix skill in the NBA these days, so if the biggest concern around you is that you project as a decent shooter... All these discussions sound bit as if his jumper was completely broken, while in reality he shows a very decent shooting touch.

[JDR720]

You could make a pretty good argument that all the current MVP frontrunners didn't project as MVP level players in college/Europe.

[homecourtloss]

Did you even watch Brent Barry?

They aren't even remotely similar, other than being white. WTF?

Yeah, I watched him. You don’t like my comparison? Ok, his ceiling is a rich man’s Tom Gugliotta. Better?

No, that's another fairly ridiculous comparison as a ceiling.

EDIT: And Brent Barry was just an awful comparison; not even remotely similar in body type, style of play or skillset.

I’m assuming this poster is trolling. Flagg is already a different breed of defender than someone like Googs and possesses a much more advanced offensive game even relative to league environment.

The comparison to Brent Barry is just ridiculous.

[tsherkin]

I’m assuming this poster is trolling. Flagg is already a different breed of defender than someone like Googs and possesses a much more advanced offensive game even relative to league environment.

The comparison to Brent Barry is just ridiculous.

Indeed.

[Stromile12]

He reminds me of a young Denzel Washington

[Duke4life831]

You could make a pretty good argument that all the current MVP frontrunners didn't project as MVP level players in college/Europe.

Correct and this is what I was just coming to say.

I’ll start with the Tatum comp. Tatum has been 1st team All NBA for 3 straight years and was 6th, 4th, and 6th in MVP voting. I would say that at least borderline MVP contender. I’m a big Tatum fan, big time defender of his pre draft as well. Flagg is the superior prospect in almost every way.

Jalen Brunson was 5th in MVP voting last year. If we’re strictly speaking who was the better prospect and had the higher ceiling coming out of college. That’s not even up for debate.

SGA. What exactly about SGA coming out of college made him have more MVP potential than Flagg?

Like here’s the thing. The thing that will make or break Flagg as an MVP candidate is very hard to predict. What kind of progression is he going to have in the pros? That’s what it all comes down to.

Does he become a guy that hovers around that 38-40% from 3? Does he become a high 80s FT shooter and top 3-5 in the league at drawing fouls? Does a team hand him the keys to be their true point forward and he excels? Does he become an AK47 level of impact defender?

He has all the tools to do these things. Does he? Who knows. That’s going to be the main question mark on if he becomes a MVP candidate level of player.

But most guys who become MVP level of players, tend to be the ones that check off all those boxes of maximizing their potential.

[tsherkin]

I’ll start with the Tatum comp. Tatum has been 1st team All NBA for 3 straight years and was 6th, 4th, and 6th in MVP voting. I would say that at least borderline MVP contender. I’m a big Tatum fan, big time defender of his pre draft as well. Flagg is the superior prospect in almost every way.

Depends on what you mean by "contender," I guess. He was no actual threat to win the MVP at any point over the past couple of years because there were too many guys too obviously better.

Jalen Brunson was 5th in MVP voting last year. If we’re strictly speaking who was the better prospect and had the higher ceiling coming out of college. That’s not even up for debate.

Brunson had narrative support, but didn't have a single first-place vote and only 142 points overall, which isn't really a meaningful showing.

Like here’s the thing. The thing that will make or break Flagg as an MVP candidate is very hard to predict. What kind of progression is he going to have in the pros? That’s what it all comes down to.

Exactly. College play won't show that. It can indicate he has strong potential to be very good in the league, sure, but there's a lot more which goes into becoming an MVP. And aside from the random one-offs who didn't really deserve it like Derrick Rose, most of the MVP winners are exceptional star-level players. Like, top 30-ish all-time in most cases. So that's a lot to project from Flagg after 10 games in the ACC, and isn't really fair to him.

Right now, we know he's quick, he's pretty strong, he has good reach. Reasonable spin move, decent handle and he attacks the rim well. He posts reasonably well against the thinner key and his FT shooting is much improved over his first 10 games or so. He's got some tools, for sure, and it looks like he knows how to use them pretty well against the competition he's faced so far. What he does from there is anyone's guess. But he's not likely to be a point forward, and he isn't likely to be an elite shooter, which gives us some notion of what style of ball he's apt to play. That gives us some ability to look at previous and extant players along a similar line and see where he might go. The trick with him is that if he leans into it defensively AND develops offensively, he's going to be a nightmare to deal with.

So it all comes down to development, which is very hard to predict and has much less to do with college play.

[The Master]

He's got some tools, for sure, and it looks like he knows how to use them pretty well against the competition he's faced so far. What he does from there is anyone's guess. But he's not likely to be a point forward, and he isn't likely to be an elite shooter, which gives us some notion of what style of ball he's apt to play. That gives us some ability to look at previous and extant players along a similar line and see where he might go.

Cade or Simmons played more on ball at OSU/LSU than Flagg, Jalen wasn't a one&done, and stats don't show everything re: playmaking, but what they still show is how good of a passer Flagg is, especially considering how beneficial for his on ball skills (he'll be a great slasher) will be playing with NBA space/shooters, and we can see that already with how great he is in finding Duke's shooters on perimeter. It's hard to assume it's 'not likely' he'll be a point forward in the future.

A valid question is when was the last time we've seen on collegiate level a teenage ~forward who is:

- a great scorer
- a very good passer
- a great defender

I guess that's the 'problem' with Flagg in general - he's so good at so many things that sometimes these things can fly under the radar, because he's not 'spectacular' at any singular one.

But then, the more you analyze Flagg, the more you see that actually he's such a good passer, his scoring rate and efficiency is better than with prominent prospects like Edwards or Tatum, and his defense is a cherry on top of the cake. Because I don't think any players on this list was actually fitting in this role (great scorer/very good passer/great defender), Simmons was very questionable defensively at LSU on pretty bad team. And - once again - that not mentioning Flagg being the youngest player on this list.

[tsherkin]

but what they still show is how good of a passer Flagg is, especially considering how beneficial for his on ball skills (he'll be a great slasher) will be playing with NBA space/shooters, and we can see that already with how great he is in finding Duke's shooters on perimeter. It's hard to assume it's 'not likely' he'll be a point forward in the future.

Yeah, he looks like he'll be a good passer, but I wouldn't look at him to try and be the next Lebron/Doncic/Harden type of player, you know what I mean? I don't think he's gonna be that guy spamming PnR and looking for skip passes to his buddies in the corner or the pop big. From the games I've seen, he seems most comfortable putting his head down and bullying his way to the rim or operating from the left block, working around a primary ball-handler. He has a really quick rip-through and that pull-up and his ability to stop a drive and turn it into a post-up are both good.

One thing which I really do enjoy about him is how quickly he makes his decisions. When I watch him, he doesn't spend years dribbling and sizing up. He gets it and goes. And that is a highly desirable trait.

[UcanUwill]

You could make a pretty good argument that all the current MVP frontrunners didn't project as MVP level players in college/Europe.

You are telling me you didn't think Jokic will be perennial MVP winner, when he was playing for Megaleks Belgrade?

But seriously, great comment. This probably implies that next yet to be drafted MVP, will probably be some guy drafted 15th. that we as we speak, barely know anything about...

[tsherkin]

You are telling me you didn't think Jokic will be perennial MVP winner, when he was playing for Megaleks Belgrade?

He was wild. We've never seen that kind of talent out of the second round before, and may never again.

[The Master]

Yeah, he looks like he'll be a good passer, but I wouldn't look at him to try and be the next Lebron/Doncic/Harden type of player, you know what I mean?

Yeah, but you mentioned the greatest point forward ever (LeBron) and two all-time great 'heliocentric' guards (Doncic, Harden). There's plenty of space between 'he won't be another LeBron/Doncic/Harden' and 'he's not likely to be a point forward': I referred to the latter, because being a point forward is his direct NBA projection, I don't think anyone realistically expects Flagg to be another LeBron or running the offense like Doncic or Harden.

And I don't think he needs to be LeBron/Doncic/Harden type of offensive player to get to the level of MVP candidate, regardless of how his trajectory will unfold. He'll be always more of PG13/Kawhi/Butler/Tatum turbo versatile two-way type of player. The reason why he is such a great prospect is that his upside as a playmaker is easily better than in case of PG, young Tatum or Kawhi, he may develop into a better shooter than Jimmy - and he's more advanced offensively than any of these guys, even if you take into account rookie/sophomore versions of PG/Kawhi/Jimmy, and Duke version of Tatum.

And again, he may not improve, especially scoring-wise, to the level of Giannis or prime Kawhi (in terms of volume and efficiency) - but Flagg is also truly a unicorn in terms of how versatile and good he is so early in his career, and passing is one of those things. We're literally talking about a guy being in the same age as LeBron/Dwight who went to the NBA straight from HS, so this season is an equivalent of last HS season for LeBron or Dwight. The extent of shooting growth is something unpredictable, so I'll leave it here, we can ping-pong on the matter, but no one knows to what extent he'll improve as a shooter, and this factor will be decisive.

[tsherkin]

Yeah, but you mentioned the greatest point forward ever (LeBron) and two all-time great 'heliocentric' guards (Doncic, Harden). There's plenty of space between 'he won't be another LeBron/Doncic/Harden' and 'he's not likely to be a point forward': I referred to the latter, because being a point forward is his direct NBA projection, I don't think anyone realistically expects Flagg to be another LeBron or running the offense like Doncic or Harden.

Yeah I didn't mean to suggest that he needs to be that level. I meant that he looks more like Kirilenko in terms of what his playmaking will provide, not the heliocentric hub-level of player.

And I don't think he needs to be LeBron/Doncic/Harden type of offensive player to get to the level of MVP candidate, regardless of how his trajectory will unfold. He'll be always more of PG13/Kawhi/Butler/Tatum turbo versatile two-way type of player.

Tatum and PG aren't MVP guys though, and Kawhi is an exceptionally strong mid-range shooter. Like, underdiscussed good, because he plays like 3 of every 5 games. I don't think Flagg projects as that kind of scorer in the NBA.

And again, he may not improve, especially scoring-wise, to the level of Giannis or prime Kawhi (in terms of volume and efficiency) - but Flagg is also truly a unicorn in terms of how versatile and good he is so early in his career, and passing is one of those things. We're literally talking about a guy being in the same age as LeBron/Dwight who went to the NBA straight from HS, so this season is an equivalent of last HS season for LeBron or Dwight. The extent of shooting growth is something unpredictable, so I'll leave it here, we can ping-pong on the matter, but no one knows to what extent he'll improve as a shooter, and this factor will be decisive.

Yes, his development as a shooter will be very important to his overall ceiling, I agree. And I will also note that what he projects as right now isn't some etched-in-stone commandment about what he'll be in the league. Guys surprise us sometimes, for sure. He looks like he's going to be really good overall, but to me, more for his versatility and two-way play than for ATG offensive impact. He looks like if you pair him with a really good PG, you're gonna have a top-5 offense for the next decade once he finds his feet in the league, you know? Some iso ability, excellent working off someone else, potential to grow beyond that, etc. But he doesn't look like the guys who rock the league with their offensive potency, was sort of my initial point when discussing his projection as an MVP-caliber player.