2013-14 MVP Discussion Thread Pt II

[JimBeanz]

Horrible game from KD. His PER will be 30.4 after this game.

LeBron is getting closer and closer... He has the media backing him up, he might end up with team record backing him up and closer in the statline than at some point it seemed like it was going to be. Maybe we'll see him getting his 5th MVP, as much as Jordan won in his career. From there on, about MVP awards the question will be if he can surpass Kareem.

To me all that LeBron is doing now is re-asserting that he is the best player in the world. Which is all well and good, but based on a single season MVP award Durant should still have a sizeable lead.

Over the last 2-3 weeks you can certainly say LeBron has been the most valuable, but over the whole season? I don't see it.

I think you are forgetting that Durant did not have an exceptional November and December - he struggled quite his jumpshot. Most of the early MVP discussion was between Paul George and LeBron. Durant then had an exceptional January and played well for most of February, but he wasn't like that for the whole season.

[CKRT]

Hold up guys. Let's take an obligatory moment and appreciate we are witnessing most likely the 2nd best player of all time who will be neck and neck with Jordan as far as on the court play goes. It's **** crazy to me that I'll get to tell people that I saw LeBron play.


AHHH. I love basketball.

[QPR]

LeBron is getting closer and closer... He has the media backing him up, he might end up with team record backing him up and closer in the statline than at some point it seemed like it was going to be. Maybe we'll see him getting his 5th MVP, as much as Jordan won in his career. From there on, about MVP awards the question will be if he can surpass Kareem.

To me all that LeBron is doing now is re-asserting that he is the best player in the world. Which is all well and good, but based on a single season MVP award Durant should still have a sizeable lead.

Over the last 2-3 weeks you can certainly say LeBron has been the most valuable, but over the whole season? I don't see it.

I think you are forgetting that Durant did not have an exceptional November and December - he struggled quite his jumpshot. Most of the early MVP discussion was between Paul George and LeBron. Durant then had an exceptional January and played well for most of February, but he wasn't like that for the whole season.

Durant was named the West's player of the month for both of those months. I agree he wasn't as dominant as he was in January and Feburary (but then again not many have been in recent history) but he was still a legit MVP candidate in both of those months. In fact he was probably marginally ahead going into his insane January.

[ThePersianFreak]

To me all that LeBron is doing now is re-asserting that he is the best player in the world. Which is all well and good, but based on a single season MVP award Durant should still have a sizeable lead.

Over the last 2-3 weeks you can certainly say LeBron has been the most valuable, but over the whole season? I don't see it.

I think you are forgetting that Durant did not have an exceptional November and December - he struggled quite his jumpshot. Most of the early MVP discussion was between Paul George and LeBron. Durant then had an exceptional January and played well for most of February, but he wasn't like that for the whole season.

Durant was named the West's player of the month for both of those months. I agree he wasn't as dominant as he was in January and Feburary (but then again not many have been in recent history) but he was still a legit MVP candidate in both of those months. In fact he was probably marginally ahead going into his insane January.

No he was'nt. dude, stop trying too hard. it is a close race, wether you like it or not. and if LeBron keeps outproducing KD the rest of the way he will get it. just deal with it.

[QPR]

Well I can see I'm talking to an impartial observer.

[xStanton27]

Whether you agree or disagree on how close they are, its pretty obvious that in the voter's minds its actually very close, its simply a matter of who outplays who and team record the rest of the way

[GREENE1148]

KD's currently leading the league in minutes played and WS/48, that hasn't been done in TWENTY FIVE YEARS... He also has the largest lead in total Win Shares since 2003-04 Kevin Garnett, who received 120 of 123 first place votes, this is being hyped as a much closer race than it really is.

[Hero]

KD's currently leading the league in minutes played and WS/48, that hasn't been done in TWENTY FIVE YEARS... He also has the largest lead in total Win Shares since 2003-04 Kevin Garnett, who received 120 of 123 first place votes, this is being hyped as a much closer race than it really is.

While win shares is great, it doesn't have any effect on the MVP race. Voters don't care about such metrics.

[hisairness]

KD's currently leading the league in minutes played and WS/48, that hasn't been done in TWENTY FIVE YEARS... He also has the largest lead in total Win Shares since 2003-04 Kevin Garnett, who received 120 of 123 first place votes, this is being hyped as a much closer race than it really is.

While win shares is great, it doesn't have any effect on the MVP race. Voters don't care about such metrics.

What do the voters care about then? You seem to either be one of them or know them, so please enlighten us. Then we won't waste time posting and arguing irrelevant stats and measures and can just focus on the important stuff.

[Heat3]

Voters care about stories. I doubt the majority of mvp voters could tell you what a win share is.

[PaulieWal]

Voters care about stories. I doubt the majority of mvp voters could tell you what a win share is.

Yeah, stories and raw stats. The younger analysts such as Tom Haberstroh and other stats guys look at all advanced stats and such but I would say vast majority of the older reporters the ones who have a vote don't look at WS, TS%, and other advanced stats etc. They are mostly looking at raw stats and storylines.

For example, I think Simmons, Wilbon, and SAS all have an MVP ballot. Simmons is the only one looking at advanced stats from that group because he runs Grantland and has guys like Zach Lowe and Kirk Goldsberry on staff. I seriously doubt Wilbon and SAS know or care about WS and TS or PER etc. These guys are only going by their eye test, the story, raw stats and the narrative.

[hisairness]

Voters care about stories. I doubt the majority of mvp voters could tell you what a win share is.

If it is mainly about the storyline then IMO this race is over and NBA can put Durant's name on it already. His season story dwarfs Lebron's. I agree that story is a major part of the vote, probably so are raw stats and team records but out of all the voters it's really impossible to tell how many of them started incorporating advanced stats into their vote. I won't pretend I know that number, I can only assume it's low but it's really impossible to state a full list of criteria they will focus on.

[theokie]

Raw Stats:
LeBron - 26.9/7.0/6.4 on 58/36/75
Durant - 31.6/7.7/5.6 on 51/40/89

Edge - Durant

Team Performance
Miami - 42-14, .750%, 2nd in East, 1 game up on OKC in loss column
OKC - 45-15, .750%, 1st in West, 1 game up on Miami overall

Edge- Push

Story
Voter fatigue, no Westbrook for half the season, West significantly harder conference

Edge - Durant

[PCProductions]

Raw Stats:
LeBron - 26.9/7.0/6.4 on 58/36/75
Durant - 31.6/7.7/5.6 on 51/40/89

Edge - Durant

Team Performance
Miami - 42-14, .750%, 2nd in East, 1 game up on OKC in loss column
OKC - 45-15, .750%, 1st in West, 1 game up on Miami overall

Edge- Push

Story
Voter fatigue, no Westbrook for half the season, West significantly harder conference

Edge - Durant

While I mostly agree, shouldn't we consider Wade being unreliable for mostly all of the season?

[Antrim]

No, because it goes against his argument.

It's also interesting how "West significantly harder conference" is part of the story but "LeBron wipes the floor with Durant in their last encounter" isn't.

[theokie]

Raw Stats:
LeBron - 26.9/7.0/6.4 on 58/36/75
Durant - 31.6/7.7/5.6 on 51/40/89

Edge - Durant

Team Performance
Miami - 42-14, .750%, 2nd in East, 1 game up on OKC in loss column
OKC - 45-15, .750%, 1st in West, 1 game up on Miami overall

Edge- Push

Story
Voter fatigue, no Westbrook for half the season, West significantly harder conference

Edge - Durant

While I mostly agree, shouldn't we consider Wade being unreliable for mostly all of the season?

Sure, thats a factor. Wade is having a down year, no doubt. But LeBron still had two-all stars on his team this season, Durant had zero. That carries more weight.

No, because it goes against his argument.

It's also interesting how "West significantly harder conference" is part of the story but "LeBron wipes the floor with Durant in their last encounter" isn't.

They split, thats all anyone is going to remember in April/May. Most people won't even recall which game came first. Collectively, in those two games, LeBron played slightly better. So ya, add it to the list of things to consider if it makes you feel better. I think its pretty minimal though and debatable, so thats why I didnt include it.
My list wasn't all inclusive, clearly there are other things that can be brought up.

[xStanton27]

http://www.nba.com/mvp-ladder/

Pretty simple, if it were so far apart, why does it have Lebron in number 1 on the nba.com mvp ladder

What matters is what happens from here on out

[MisterHibachi]

FWIW, David Aldridge, who I'm pretty sure has a vote, still has Durant 1st on his MVP ladder in his weekly column. Not sure how close he considers the race, tho. SAS, if he has a vote, already decided to give it to Durant a few weeks back on First Take.

[Antrim]

Raw Stats:
LeBron - 26.9/7.0/6.4 on 58/36/75
Durant - 31.6/7.7/5.6 on 51/40/89

Edge - Durant

Team Performance
Miami - 42-14, .750%, 2nd in East, 1 game up on OKC in loss column
OKC - 45-15, .750%, 1st in West, 1 game up on Miami overall

Edge- Push

Story
Voter fatigue, no Westbrook for half the season, West significantly harder conference

Edge - Durant

While I mostly agree, shouldn't we consider Wade being unreliable for mostly all of the season?

Sure, thats a factor. Wade is having a down year, no doubt. But LeBron still had two-all stars on his team this season, Durant had zero. That carries more weight.

No, because it goes against his argument.

It's also interesting how "West significantly harder conference" is part of the story but "LeBron wipes the floor with Durant in their last encounter" isn't.

They split, thats all anyone is going to remember in April/May. Most people won't even recall which game came first. Collectively, in those two games, LeBron played slightly better. So ya, add it to the list of things to consider if it makes you feel better. I think its pretty minimal though and debatable, so thats why I didnt include it.
My list wasn't all inclusive, clearly there are other things that can be brought up.

They both played well in their first encounter and LeBron absolutely destroyed Durant in the second. "Collectively, LeBron played slightly better" is not an accurate description of the events.

If it'll matter or not I don't know, because if either team does really well or really bad and there's a noticeable difference in team record the one with the higher one will win. But if things are really tight in the end, I wouldn't be surprised if at least some of the voters have it in mind. I mean, it was their last encounter of the season, on national TV, and pretty brutal.

[PaulieWal]

FWIW, David Aldridge, who I'm pretty sure has a vote, still has Durant 1st on his MVP ladder in his weekly column. Not sure how close he considers the race, tho. SAS, if he has a vote, already decided to give it to Durant a few weeks back on First Take.

He does have a vote and will give it to Durant. So will Simmons and I am not sure about Wilbon.

KD should win this easily. He won't get near unanimous first place votes like LeBron last year or Shaq but who cares about that anyway.