MVP discussion thread

[Keller61]

LeBron is a bit more efficient than Durant (67% vs. 63% TS), but I don't think that difference is a big deal, since 63% TS is still extremely efficient and KD is doing it at a higher volume (28 ppg vs. 25). Efficiency is very context-dependent anyway. My general sense is that Durant creates his own shots out of nothing more often than LeBron.

[HotRocks34]

LeBron
Durant

Everyone else

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One of the most hilarious things I heard several weeks ago was that there supposedly was "no storyline argument" for LeBron to win MVP this year. How about these, just to begin:

- LeBron could become the only player in NBA history with 3 straight MVP/FMVP seasons
- LeBron could become the only player in NBA history with 5 career seasons of 30+ PER
- LeBron could become only the 4th player in NBA history to win 5 MVPs (Kareem, Russell, MJ)
- LeBron could become only the 4th player in NBA history to win 3 straight MVPs (Russell, Wilt, Bird)

So, the "no good storylines for LeBron to win MVP" is ridiculous, I think. There are other storylines beyond these, I'm sure, but those are a few.

Not LeBron's best outing today, but another win and Miami continues to own the Super-Strong Beyond Human Comprehension West.

Things didn't look so hot for LeBron early in the year. But they are shaping up better now. The game against Portland soon should be a good barometer.

[Colbinii]

LeBron is a bit more efficient than Durant (67% vs. 63% TS), but I don't think that difference is a big deal, since 63% TS is still extremely efficient and KD is doing it at a higher volume (28 ppg vs. 25). Efficiency is very context-dependent anyway. My general sense is that Durant creates his own shots out of nothing more often than LeBron.

%eFG is a better guage of how efficient a shooter you are because it doesn't account for large volumes from the free throw line, and Lebron is shooting 64% and Durant 53%.
Lebron is also dominating Durant in FG%, which has already been covered.

So, by my calculations, Lebron won 2/3 of the "shooting percentage" metrics by a landslide, and one by a few points.

My general sense is that Durant tries to create his own shot out of nothing because he isn't the play-maker that Lebron is.

Do you have any facts regarding the "creates more with nothing" or are you just pulling that out of your ass? Are you accounting for making plays for teammates as well as oneself? Because I can't see you making a case for Durant if it is making a play for the team, which is what really matters.

[og15]

LeBron is a bit more efficient than Durant (67% vs. 63% TS), but I don't think that difference is a big deal, since 63% TS is still extremely efficient and KD is doing it at a higher volume (28 ppg vs. 25). Efficiency is very context-dependent anyway. My general sense is that Durant creates his own shots out of nothing more often than LeBron.

Observation would seem to disagree with this for the majority, so I'd like to know what other sources you might be using that are more objectively giving you this conclusion.

[LBJ-ITALY]

Wade playing this good hurts LeBrons MVP chances. LBJ can coast more, I think this is KDs year.

Well, the same thing you can say about Westbrooke who has been a monster in tha last 10 games for OKC!

[pauk89]

Clearly durant and at this point, and the gap grows as Lebron's TS% continues to fall back down to earth and Durant's climbs. I'm sure they'll both be around 65% at the all star break.

[BenoUdrihFTL]

Insane that people can think anyone other than LeBern deserves MVP this year. Bern is The World Champion Miami Heat, a team that oh by the way is on pace to become only the most efficient offense in NBA history. That's all Bern, he's the initiator-facilitator-finisher of the offense all in one. And he's Miami's defensive leader. Ridiculous. Meanwhile it's debatable whether guys like Durant or George are even the heart and soul of their own team. You could easily make an argument that Westbrook and Hibbert are the primary fuels to OKC and Indy's success.

[King_John]

Danny Granger.

With him on the court, a team that had otherwise lost 5 games without him, is undefeated with an average 30 point margin of victory.

Just saying.

hall of fame player...all I can say

[rcontador]

LeBron is a bit more efficient than Durant (67% vs. 63% TS), but I don't think that difference is a big deal, since 63% TS is still extremely efficient and KD is doing it at a higher volume (28 ppg vs. 25). Efficiency is very context-dependent anyway. My general sense is that Durant creates his own shots out of nothing more often than LeBron.

%eFG is a better guage of how efficient a shooter you are because it doesn't account for large volumes from the free throw line, and Lebron is shooting 64% and Durant 53%.

Why should we ignore free throws? They're part of the game...

So, by my calculations, Lebron won 2/3 of the "shooting percentage" metrics by a landslide, and one by a few points.

This is like saying, "My legs are 3 inches longer than yours, and my neck is 3 inches longer than yours, and I'm an inch taller than you. I'm dominating 2/3 of the height metrics!" It's really stupid. If you know the total difference in height, then the differences between individual body parts is irrelevant. They're already factored into total height.

Same with TS -- if you know the TS differential, eFG and FG differentials just don't matter. They're already factored in. If Lebron has way higher eFG but similar TS to Durant, he must be way worse at drawing and/or making free throws. His total efficiency is almost the same as Durant's, regardless of how much he leads in eFG.

(Note: this is all true only to first approximation. Producing points by converting at the line surely does not have exactly the same impact, on average, as producing points by making shots from the floor. But unless you already have some idea of the relative value of each, it makes no sense to look at eFG or FG when you can look at TS.)

[Shv3d]

Wade playing this good hurts LeBrons MVP chances. LBJ can coast more, I think this is KDs year.

He says, as Westbrook just had a triple double yesterday.

[NaturalThunder]

Wade playing this good hurts LeBrons MVP chances. LBJ can coast more, I think this is KDs year.

He says, as Westbrook just had a triple double yesterday.

And Durant dropped 29-7-6 on 63% shooting in 32 minutes. So it's not like Durant coasted and/or played bad. Of course it's hard to tell, the Knicks are so bad that someone like Durant probably could coast to a 29-7-6 game while sitting out the whole 4th quarter.

[Shv3d]

Wade playing this good hurts LeBrons MVP chances. LBJ can coast more, I think this is KDs year.

He says, as Westbrook just had a triple double yesterday.

And Durant dropped 29-7-6 on 63% shooting in 32 minutes. So it's not like Durant coasted and/or played bad. Of course it's hard to tell, the Knicks are so bad that someone like Durant probably could coast to a 29-7-6 game while sitting out the whole 4th quarter.

My point is that saying Wade hurts LeBron's MVP chances more than Westbrook hurts Durant's is silly.

[bbms]

He says, as Westbrook just had a triple double yesterday.

And Durant dropped 29-7-6 on 63% shooting in 32 minutes. So it's not like Durant coasted and/or played bad. Of course it's hard to tell, the Knicks are so bad that someone like Durant probably could coast to a 29-7-6 game while sitting out the whole 4th quarter.

My point is that saying Wade hurts LeBron's MVP chances more than Westbrook hurts Durant's is silly.

Do you think so? Wade is having a better season than Westbrook.

[Hero]

^ That's not true at all. Wade misses so many games that to say such a thing is ludicrous. Don't underestimate Westbrook. There are games where Russ is the best player on OKC. You can hardly ever say there are games where Wade carries the Heat.
Wade has already missed 7 games this season. He could end up missing what? 15-20 games for the entire season?

[pelican piranha]

LBJ will win. Dude will go on a crazy run like always and wrap it up. He's having a great year. He played incredible in the first quarter yesterday, but didn't do much afterwards. I think one off game will be ok.

[mademan]

The media (voters) are feelin Lebron through the first third of the season.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/5-o ... ter-awards

[runlikehell]

The media (voters) are feelin Lebron through the first third of the season.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/5-o ... ter-awards

Durant better win the head to head match ups if he wants a chance.

[nyrangers08]

There's no question who the best player is, it's Lebron. But if OKC finishes with a better record, I think it's only fair to give Durant the MVP. It is consistent with the history of the award (i.e. heavily influenced by voter fatigue and team record).

[ThePersianFreak]

Wade has been brilliant this year, so has been Westbrook.
KD and Bron are still frontrunners, and i think their H2H match-ups will decide who wins is after all(considering Mia and OKC will have similar records).

[Dame Lizard]

CP3 was absolutely incredible today. Despite the Clips getting an loss (in overtime), performances like this could only strengthen is spot on the ladder.

34 points (16/29 FG)
16 assists
6 steals

Same goes for LMA, who was only a game-time decision as to whether he'd play due to Migraines.

32 points (15/31 FG)
10 rebounds
4 assists

That's an awesome stat-line for a guy whose been on nothing but soup for the last 4 days, low on energy and having headaches!

But yeah, Lebron and KD are still clearly front-runners.