Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary

[EvanZ]

I disagree with 1971's opinion on the Warriors, but I think it's funny everyone uses the "OH HE'S A JAZZ FAN & WE HAVE THEIR UNPROTECTED DRAFT PICK" card.

That's not why I think Jazz fans have a grudge. I think they have a grudge because they didn't get the Harrison Barnes pick last season.

[EvanZ]

I don't believe injuries should play a role in predictions unless you know for a fact that a player is already injured. The fact is Curry and Bogut are coming into this season as close to 100% as they've been in several seasons. If anything, this should boost predictions of GSW's win total, not lower it. Just doesn't make any rational sense.

I just don't have any reason to think Bogut can last, even if he's 100% now. And I doubt GS gets more games out of Curry this year, so there is no more upside there, only downside. Add in having fewer healthy bodies to run out there at center and I think GS will tread water, and maybe even get worse.

Fewer healthy bodies at center? We have Bogut, O'Neal, and Lee healthy before the season begins. And Ezeli coming back at some point. How is that fewer than having Bogut, Lee, and Biedrins last season?

Bottom line is we'll probably go small so often it won't even matter.

[GreenRiddler]

I find it odd you argue about the warriors injury problems yet you don't take that into account for Minny. Bogut/Pek Rubio/Curry and KL who hasn't looked the same when he rushed back. you could also talk about the loss of AK and playing rookies/sophomores rotation minuets.

The Dallas Lakers thing is also very perplexing.

You should add Will Barton over Crabbe in Por depth chart as well and put CJ as the backup SG

[GreenRiddler]

I will say that I think Barnes is gonna struggle off the bench, it's like putting a Parsons as a super sub. Mostly restricted for combo guards.

[floppymoose]

Fewer healthy bodies at center? We have Bogut, O'Neal, and Lee healthy before the season begins.

Lee is not a center.

We have Bogut and JO.
Prior season we had Ezili, Bogut, and Biedrins.

We are at risk for having fewer minutes played from a real center.

[EvanZ]

Fewer healthy bodies at center? We have Bogut, O'Neal, and Lee healthy before the season begins.

Lee is not a center.

We have Bogut and JO.
Prior season we had Ezili, Bogut, and Biedrins.

We are at risk for having fewer minutes played from a real center.

We had Ezeli when Bogut was hurt early in the year. Now we have a healthy Bogut when Ezeli is hurt.

If you're honestly worried that we don't have Biedrins, not sure what to say. I'd rather have Lee at the 5.

You seem like George Costanza unwilling to believe we have a good thing going. That's cool though. Just a matter of time until you believe it's the real thing.

[GoldenGoose]

Fewer healthy bodies at center? We have Bogut, O'Neal, and Lee healthy before the season begins.

Lee is not a center.

We have Bogut and JO.
Prior season we had Ezili, Bogut, and Biedrins.

We are at risk for having fewer minutes played from a real center.

We had Ezeli when Bogut was hurt early in the year. Now we have a healthy Bogut when Ezeli is hurt.

If you're honestly worried that we don't have Biedrins, not sure what to say. I'd rather have Lee at the 5.

You seem like George Costanza unwilling to believe we have a good thing going. That's cool though. Just a matter of time until you believe it's the real thing.

I can't say that I blame floppy for his current outlook. We're Warriors fans after all. Skepticism and caution are heavily prevalent after years of Cohan and Rowell.

[jazzfan1971]

Spurs up.

[Ugly0598]

I disagree with 1971's opinion on the Warriors, but I think it's funny everyone uses the "OH HE'S A JAZZ FAN & WE HAVE THEIR UNPROTECTED DRAFT PICK" card.

That's not why I think Jazz fans have a grudge. I think they have a grudge because they didn't get the Harrison Barnes pick last season.

I hate that the W's tanked, but they did the smart thing.

[Jake0890]

Whoa, Grizzlies better than Spurs? Not seeing that one.

Sent from my EVO using Tapatalk 2

[Jstarks3]

I should have watched the Knicks play more last year.

stopped reading after this.

[corona]

Well, Denver won 10 more games last season. So, it's not that much of a stretch is it?

One of the main reasons they won 10 more games is they added Iguodala, who was their best player. Their second best player, Gallinari, is probably out until January.

So yeah, I think it's quite a stretch.

i think there would be a lot of disagreement over who the nuggets best player was last season. lawson was probably closest to being an all-star. gallo carried the team in the middle of the season at nearly 20ppg on great percentages and great defense....but they didn't seem to miss a beat after he tore his ACL, at least until the playoffs. iguodala was pretty awful offensively in every month but november & april. 12 points, 41% fgs, 26% from 3 on nearly 4 attempts, sub-60% free throws. i'm sure there's a metric that showed he made the team better defensively....but can that be made up for in a change of philosophy from 'leak out and run...play faster, switch every p&r, shoot the first open shot to......fundamental defensive schemes & a more co-ordinated offensive attack taught by a rookie coach who's studied them from championship level coaches his whole career?'

...and, how much better offensively will they be when they switch from corey brewer, andre iguodala & andre miller (likely traded) who are all absolutely dismal shooters (averaged 2.4 per 8.1 3fga combined last year...under 30%) to fournier, foye & robinson....who are all excellent shooters (41% from 3 across the board). lawson should have a lot more space & options in his attack, and passing options on the perimeter....as opposed to corey brewer wing 3's.

i also expect a breakout season from fournier. karl benched him in the postseason because he picked up a couple quick/weak rookie fouls in games 1 and 2 and he had no trust in him. but the kid showed legit nba play towards at the end of the season. he just has a great knack and feel for the game. great shooting stroke and hits them at a high percentage. ballhandling isn't good enough to be a pg, but he can run the p&r and his visions good. great at cutting around the basket and finding open spots. great euro-step type moves around the rim to keep his defenders off balance and still finish while being a skinny guy. it's like watching a really young ginobili without as much flair/flopping.

also have to remember that they were without wilson chandler the first half of last season with hip surgery, like they'll be without gallo this year. he's a very similar player to gallo and shouldn't have a problem filling in with more minutes/production over the 2-3 months that gallinari will be out.

[Captain Thrust]

Violently disagree with the Spurs ranking and projection.

As much as Timmy MIGHT(a cerebral legend like him could absolutely maintain last year's play) decline this season it will be made up for and THEN SOME with KAWHI LEANORD's improvement.

Kawhi is a STUD already and scary thing is he's only 22.
Last season he was 3rd to LAST on his team in Usage%. No way he's used that little next season with his breakout Playoffs/Finals performance.

He's going to be a much bigger part of the Offense this season according to POP next season, further lightening the already low and well managed workload for Timmy D(only 30mpg/69 GP with plenty of days off in the RS last year)..


Also Deshaun Thomas is not the backup SF he's most likely D-league/going overseas.
That's going to be a by committee thing Marco, Manu, and Green.

[Trader_Joe]

As old as the Spurs are.. TD doesn't seem to age and Green and Kawhi will more than make up for any drop off for Manu. Parker is the wild card as he looked gassed by games 6 and 7 of the Finals.. but that's the Finals. I think the Spurs are like the Bulls.. you can put anywhere on that team and they will perform becuase of Pops and the system. Maybe they didn't get any better, and perhaps someone like Indy is better than them, but I can't see them falling this far.

But like you said.. it has to happen sooner or later.

[EvanZ]

i think there would be a lot of disagreement over who the nuggets best player was last season. lawson was probably closest to being an all-star.

Wouldn't surprise me if some people think Lawson was their best player. But if you take into account defense, that doesn't make much sense, because he's so awful.

If you look at RAPM, Iguodala and Gallo are +4.1 and +3.8, respectively. Lawson is +0.6. That's a huge difference and makes it difficult for a rational person to build up a strong case for Lawson over either of those two, and certainly not both.

[vincecarter4pres]

I'd agree with you on the Spurs if it weren't for Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter and some sleeper's like Nando de Colo and Danny Green being a perfect role player.

Now if Duncan falls off a cliff entirely or Parker misses a huge amount of time while Manu continues his post season suckitude they can easily fall way off, but my money is still on them being a touch better then you have them.

We're on a similar page though I think, but I'd still have them around 7th or 8th and 3rd or 4th best in the West with say 56 wins.

[Mr. E]

Spurs at #9 is my first real big "shock" so far, dude!

[jazzfan1971]

Well, you look at some of the teams in the West.

OKC I think you have to put first (spoiler alert) until you can show otherwise.
Clippers look much improved. I think they easily passed the Spurs.
Memphis really looks to have solidified their bench by my eye.
Houston took a HUGE leap forward adding DH and not losing any assets in the process. I think they've got a little work to do in rounding out the roster, but, I think that'll happen.

I guess folks would most disagree with Memphis. But, I see them topping the Spurs this season. They were only 2 wins back of the Spurs last season, so I don't see it as a major shock to think that they could end up edging out the Spurs.

[SF_Warriors]

Well, Denver won 10 more games last season. So, it's not that much of a stretch is it?

One of the main reasons they won 10 more games is they added Iguodala, who was their best player. Their second best player, Gallinari, is probably out until January.

So yeah, I think it's quite a stretch.

i think there would be a lot of disagreement over who the nuggets best player was last season. lawson was probably closest to being an all-star. gallo carried the team in the middle of the season at nearly 20ppg on great percentages and great defense....but they didn't seem to miss a beat after he tore his ACL, at least until the playoffs. iguodala was pretty awful offensively in every month but november & april. 12 points, 41% fgs, 26% from 3 on nearly 4 attempts, sub-60% free throws. i'm sure there's a metric that showed he made the team better defensively....but can that be made up for in a change of philosophy from 'leak out and run...play faster, switch every p&r, shoot the first open shot to......fundamental defensive schemes & a more co-ordinated offensive attack taught by a rookie coach who's studied them from championship level coaches his whole career?'

...and, how much better offensively will they be when they switch from corey brewer, andre iguodala & andre miller (likely traded) who are all absolutely dismal shooters (averaged 2.4 per 8.1 3fga combined last year...under 30%) to fournier, foye & robinson....who are all excellent shooters (41% from 3 across the board). lawson should have a lot more space & options in his attack, and passing options on the perimeter....as opposed to corey brewer wing 3's.

i also expect a breakout season from fournier. karl benched him in the postseason because he picked up a couple quick/weak rookie fouls in games 1 and 2 and he had no trust in him. but the kid showed legit nba play towards at the end of the season. he just has a great knack and feel for the game. great shooting stroke and hits them at a high percentage. ballhandling isn't good enough to be a pg, but he can run the p&r and his visions good. great at cutting around the basket and finding open spots. great euro-step type moves around the rim to keep his defenders off balance and still finish while being a skinny guy. it's like watching a really young ginobili without as much flair/flopping.

also have to remember that they were without wilson chandler the first half of last season with hip surgery, like they'll be without gallo this year. he's a very similar player to gallo and shouldn't have a problem filling in with more minutes/production over the 2-3 months that gallinari will be out.

iguodala > Fournier and foye easily

I personally would not want Lawson and gallo to be my team's main offensive options.
The starting wings for the first month or two of the season is chandler and Fournier with foye rotating in, good luck with that.

Nate Robinson is a good player, but he is not going to provide much more value than miller did the last couple years.

hickson will help the frontcourt offense improve, but that front court is not scaring anybody offensively or defensively.

[nuposse04]

Well, you look at some of the teams in the West.

OKC I think you have to put first (spoiler alert) until you can show otherwise.
Clippers look much improved. I think they easily passed the Spurs.
Memphis really looks to have solidified their bench by my eye.
Houston took a HUGE leap forward adding DH and not losing any assets in the process. I think they've got a little work to do in rounding out the roster, but, I think that'll happen.

I guess folks would most disagree with Memphis. But, I see them topping the Spurs this season. They were only 2 wins back of the Spurs last season, so I don't see it as a major shock to think that they could end up edging out the Spurs.

As a "regular season" team I only see OKC being better them. OKC CAN be on their level in the playoffs but I want to see how much Lamb and company can contribute first.

Memphis and HOU clearly got better, I think memphis should be able to get 2 wins from them now in a series, not sure if they can fully supplant them. HOU on paper should have the talent, just need to see it gel IMO. HOU's rise may not become fully apparent until the latter portion of the season when they've got some solid time for chemistry.