Should Lin come off the bench?

[tsherkin]

Nah, at 18.8% TOV, and without volume assists to balance it out, his turnovers damag his overall level of productivity and he's had higher efficiency in bursts before. If he can't put it together for a full season, he isn't worth starting. There are superior specialist options.

[LarsV8]

Of the western PGs, only CP3, Parker, Westbrook, and maybe Curry are better than Lin right now, IMHO. Lillard is only a shooter; Lin is better at everything else, especially passing and defense. (I think you must be joking about Beverley.) So Lin is top 5 in the West among PGs; that is definitely in the all-star conversation.

Holiday, Westbrook, Paul, Dragic, Curry, Conley, Rubio, Lawson, Lillard, Parker, Calderon are all better PGs than Lin.

[Manitoba]

Nah, at 18.8% TOV, and without volume assists to balance it out, his turnovers damag his overall level of productivity and he's had higher efficiency in bursts before. If he can't put it together for a full season, he isn't worth starting. There are superior specialist options.

You do know the formula for TOV%, don't you? Here, I'll save you the trouble of looking it up:

TOV% = 100 * TOV / (FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV)

It rewards volume shooting: as you take more shots, your TOV% automatically goes down, regardless of whether the shots go in.

Lin's relatively high TOV% merely says that he's not a volume shooter, unlike Westbrook or Irving, both of whom lose the ball more often than Lin -- and both of them are definitely starters. You are really reaching now.

[tsherkin]

Oh, meantime Manitoba, I didn't say anything about him as a shooter. I said he was an average-ish playe ITO scoring efficiency. Over nearly 150 NBA games, and over more than 100 starts, he has been turnover-prone and average in terms of efficiency. He has notable deficiencies in his game which even he has acknowledged. He's a bit older, though it's fair to note that he has played less than two full seasons worth of games.

As he has played to date in his career, though, he isn't worth it as a starter and half a season of efficient scoring doesn't take away his defense or turnover problems. He looks like he has the potential to be a solid #3 or 4 type guy if he keeps developing but he isn't a remarkable player and his style of play commands more on-ball action than is healthy for a team's offense given his weak assist payout and significant TOV%.

He has improved in each sample he's played over the past three years, it's true, the latest being a full season look, but that doesn't change the fact that he's probably best-suited to a 6th-man kind of role, providing spark by leading a PnR attack against the opposition's second line.

[RollingWave]

Nah, at 18.8% TOV, and without volume assists to balance it out, his turnovers damag his overall level of productivity and he's had higher efficiency in bursts before. If he can't put it together for a full season, he isn't worth starting. There are superior specialist options.

The problem is that by this argument you can say the same for Beverley, (17.5 % TOV, and a significantly lower AST% as well.) Where as forcing Harden to be the primary ball handler 24/7 seem to be unlikely to help his also high turnover tendencies.

And like most other criticism of Lin, when looking at the monthly splits it puts the entire premises in doubt. As his season AST% is 29% and TOV% is very close to 19%, but by the last 20 some game it was 33% / 17% , that's still not ideal, but it is much further away from the general premise. and it does come into the question of how much the pairing with Harden was a factor, since that 33/17 most closely resemble last year in terms of starting PG........................... Steve Nash . (who was 33/ 18 last year.) sure Nash was hurt a lot last year and overall still a much better offensive player, but the similarity of suddenly being a PG that need to play off ball is there, and if even Nash took a gigantic hit to his AST% (it was down nearly 20 % from the year before, while the turnovers dropped a lot less.)..........

[tsherkin]

Nah, at 18.8% TOV, and without volume assists to balance it out, his turnovers damag his overall level of productivity and he's had higher efficiency in bursts before. If he can't put it together for a full season, he isn't worth starting. There are superior specialist options.

You do know the formula for TOV%, don't you? Here, I'll save you the trouble of looking it up:

TOV% = 100 * TOV / (FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV)

It rewards volume shooting: as you take more shots, your TOV% automatically goes down, regardless of whether the shots go in.

Lin's relatively high TOV% merely says that he's not a volume shooter, unlike Westbrook or Irving, both of whom lose the ball more often than Lin -- and both of them are definitely starters. You are really reaching now.

Actually, what it says is that he averages roughly 19 turnovers every 100 plays. FGA make up the lion's share of possessions, it isn't surprising that they are the largest part of the denominator. His problem is that he doesn't produce a ton of assists relative to his turnover volume and that he doesn't shoot a lot. So he isn't producing a hgh ORTG because he isn't an efficient scorer, a wicked offensive rebounder or a high-volume playmaker. That makes it highly accurate: the payout for giving him the ball is low and he turns the ball over a lot compared to the number of times he has the ball. Nash, Stockton and Deron are examples of guys with similar shooting volume (Magic, too, in many seasons) who had superior offensive utility despite comparable or HIGHER turnover rates due to scoring efficiency and assist production...

Which Lin doesn't provide.

He isn't worth a high volume of possessions but still coughs it up a lot... That's definitively bad and you are clearly wrong.

[tsherkin]

RollingWave, SSS and shame on you for comparing him to Nash's half-season next to Kobe, where his efficacy was limited and driven by shooting ability Lin will never have. Not comparable.

20 games at the end of a season don't mean anything.

What about his 24.3% TOV in the playoffa, if you like small samples and the second half of the season? And his sterling 4 ppg on 32.2% TS? I wouldn't bring it up, but his defenders seem intent kn discussing meaningless samples, so..:

[Manitoba]

Of the western PGs, only CP3, Parker, Westbrook, and maybe Curry are better than Lin right now, IMHO. Lillard is only a shooter; Lin is better at everything else, especially passing and defense. (I think you must be joking about Beverley.) So Lin is top 5 in the West among PGs; that is definitely in the all-star conversation.

Holiday, Westbrook, Paul, Dragic, Curry, Conley, Rubio, Lawson, Lillard, Parker, Calderon are all better PGs than Lin.

I have already said that CP3, Parker, Westbrook, and maybe Curry will probably be better than Lin this year (among the Western PGs). As for the rest, you'll have to prove that they are better -- overall -- than Lin. And remember that Lin was recovering from knee surgery last year, so in your comparisons you'll have to use the numbers from when he was finally healthy (e.g. the last two months).

[tsherkin]

No, Manitoba, we don't "have" to use the favorable numbers because they represent a small sample. If he repeats them over the whole season, then that will be interesting but it bears repeating that with his turnover issues and low offensive production, he'll remain a low-effectiveness offensive player even at 55% TS.

[Tave]

Nah, at 18.8% TOV, and without volume assists to balance it out, his turnovers damag his overall level of productivity and he's had higher efficiency in bursts before. If he can't put it together for a full season, he isn't worth starting. There are superior specialist options.

Beverley isn't a specialist anything, he's an energy guy: an average backup PG with good defense. He doesn't take better care of the ball, shoot better, or run the offense better.

I'll take 30 min of Lin over that at this point. When healthy Lin can/has been a plus defender. He's a smart player with good size, lateral speed, and active hands. Beverly doesn't have the scoring/playmaking upside to justify removing Lin as an option. Not to say he can't take the spot if he works at it, Lin is a mediocre-average starting PG but part of that is situational (injury, first time starter). He has too much potential to bench at this point, IMO.

At least for anyone on Houston's roster. It's not as easy to find competitive personnel as you make it out to be. You can't just waive a magic wand and POOF!--a backup PG appears at the end of your bench and gives you 15points and 8assist in 30 minutes on 58%TS and 15%TOV.

[tsherkin]

I wasn't referencing Beverly when I made my comment about specialists and alternatives. If they want a replacement, they can acquire one. Specialist shooter would work, since Lin clashes with Harden role-wise anyhow.

Lin doesn't do anything all that worthwhile to the starting lineup. He'd be fine from the bench. Much more room for error in limited minutes and weaker competition.

[NothingButLuck]

As he has played to date in his career, though, he isn't worth it as a starter and half a season of efficient scoring doesn't take away his defense or turnover problems.

What defensive problem do Lin has? I just want to ask this question. In terms of team defensive PPP, Harden + Lin is very close to Harden + Beverly. One is a better man defender, the other is the better help defender. I let you decide which one is which.

Nah, at 18.8% TOV, and without volume assists to balance it out, his turnovers damag his overall level of productivity and he's had higher efficiency in bursts before. If he can't put it together for a full season, he isn't worth starting. There are superior specialist options.

Except for the fact that you ignore the type of assists that Lin typically dishes out. It's the high risk, high reward type (at rim, close, and 3pt). Can he do a better job in not turning the ball over, sure, but I probably live with a playmaker who can get his teammates high percentage/value shots over those that hog all those mid-range assists.

[Tave]

Additionally, it bears mentioning that even with the knee issues and grind of a full season, Lin made good improvement on his turnovers. He's got more room to go and Houston didn't ask him to create as much offense so part of it is that, but all-in-all it's a step in the right direction.

[HotRocks34]

Nah, at 18.8% TOV, and without volume assists to balance it out, his turnovers damag his overall level of productivity and he's had higher efficiency in bursts before. If he can't put it together for a full season, he isn't worth starting. There are superior specialist options.

Steve Nash, 4th season (season which Lin is going into now)

Points PER 36 = 11.3
Reb PER 36 = 02.8
Assists PER 36 = 06.4
PER = 13.5
TOV% = 20.3%
Games = 56
Starts = 27 (b/c of injury issues, I think. Started all games he played in previous year & following year)

Jeremy Lin, 3rd season

Points PER 36 = 14.9
Reb PER 36 = 03.4
Assists PER 36 = 06.8
PER = 14.9
TOV% = 18.8%

*
*

Anyone trying to make any definitive conclusions about Lin from last year is likely making a large mistake. He wasn't healthy at the start of the year and he was playing in a new system. The truth is we don't know what he's going to become, although we saw possibilities during Linsanity in New York and we know his scoring in this preseason PER 36, as I mentioned earlier in the thread, is more in line with Linsanity than it was to the performance during last year's preseason (and last season) when the knee clearly wasn't right.

Lin has slightly outperformed Beverley during this preseason, so far, in terms of efficiency. Here are those numbers (from something I wrote on another venue):

I just broke down the game efficiency (raw efficiency, not PER) numbers through the first three games of the preseason. I've always liked the "game efficiency" method a bit more than the "game score" method.

Here's what we get for the point guard position. "EPM" refers to efficiency units per minute. The higher the number the better. "TEFF" refers to total efficiency units for the player through the first three games. The higher the number the better.

JL --- 77 minutes --- TEFF = 55 --- EPM = 0.714
PB --- 69 minutes --- TEFF = 48 --- EPM = 0.696

Based on this evaluation, Lin has better ever so slightly better/more efficient than Beverley in the first three preseason games. It should also be pointed out that two of Lin's games game as a starter presumably primarily facing other starters, while two of Beverley's games came as a backup presumably primarily facing other backups.

What I am calling "game efficiency" above is actually "NBA Efficiency." NBA Efficiency is this formula:

PTS + REB + AST + ST + BLK - Missed FGA - Missed FTA - TO

NBA Efficiency is very similar to Game Score. And it includes TO's, as seen above.

Both Beverley and Lin are playing well this preseason, so far. McHale called them both "starters" (meaning starter-level point guards) yesterday after practice. I agree with him. Lin has clearly improved his game and is healthy for the start of this season, so I expect to see an improved performance from him.

Pretending or coming to the conclusion that Lin can't put up good numbers for a full season because he put up poor numbers while recovering from the knee injury (and in a new system) is, to me, similar to pretending or coming to the conclusion that Lin can put up Linsanity numbers because he did so for 25 or so games in New York. These were both short-term situations that didn't play out over a full season.

We haven't see him play a full season healthy, with significant playing time, so it's probably best to reserve judgment until that time.

Additionally, as was the case with Nash, it sometimes takes time for a player to come into his full potential. Nash was allowed to reach his potential while pretty much starting his way through his up-and-downs in Dallas. We will see if Lin is given a similar chance in Houston, or elsewhere.

[Tave]

I wasn't referencing Beverly when I made my comment about specialists and alternatives. If they want a replacement, they can acquire one. Specialist shooter would work, since Lin clashes with Harden role-wise anyhow.

They have who they have. Replacing your starting PG isn't that easy. Lin and Harden overlap to a degree, but we've seen what they do when they're clicking, and it's far beyond what some journeyman backup or spot-up shooter can accomplish.

Lin doesn't do anything all that worthwhile to the starting lineup. He'd be fine from the bench. Much more room for error in limited minutes and weaker competition.

That would be a waste of talent given Houston's resources and a similar waste on about half the league's rosters.

[Tave]

If anything, Lin should be playing more this year as he continues to improve his rehab and conditioning. He's a young guy, he can handle the workload. Houston doesn't have a San Antonio-type situation trying juggle minutes and bench production. Dwight, Harden, and Lin can all give big minutes.

[SoulInTheHole7]

Did the above poster just say that MAYBE Curry is better than Lin? That's like saying MAYBE Harden is better than Demar Derozan.

Curry's in a different league than Lin.

[HotRocks34]

Lin doesn't do anything all that worthwhile to the starting lineup. He'd be fine from the bench. Much more room for error in limited minutes and weaker competition.

I totally disagree and reject any concept that Lin may "need" to face weaker competition.

When Lin was putting up big numbers in New York, he did so against starters. Not only did he do so against starters, he did so against specific defenses and defenders designed to stop him:

http://bit.ly/H4cbGr

The NBA’s defending champions treated the Knicks point guard like a force to be reckoned with, putting 6-foot-7 Shawn Marion, one of the league’s elite perimeter defenders, on Lin for most of the game, and frequently trying to double-team Lin off the pick-and-roll.

The Mavericks forced Lin into seven turnovers, but he finished with 28 points and 14 assists, and led the Knicks to a 104-97 win.

“We were trying to put pressure on him in certain areas,” said Marion, who finished with 14 points, seven rebounds, two assists and two steals. “I was able to get out there and get my hands on some passes and create problems, [but] he’s talented. I give him credit. … He works for it.”

Beverley has never faced anything like that attention. And his play is likely to decline should he receive that kind of attention.

Now, the idea that Lin "needs" to face weaker competition is ridiculous. Here are some of the numbers he put up as a starter.

New York
=========

25/05/07
28/02/08
23/04/10
38/04/07
Etc

Houston
========

38/03/07
22/04/08
21/04/08
22/01/05
29/06/08
24/01/08
24/02/06
Etc

Patrick Beverly has never scored more than 16 points in any NBA game.

Again, for people who don't watch Houston's games or are not familiar with Lin or his development, you may want to consider whether or not your want to comment on this subject.

Jeremy Lin is a young and understandably inconsistent player who has a ton of potential. We don't know what he is yet, as we have not seen him play a full, healthy season with significant minutes. We should know more soon.

[postcall]

Lin doesn't do anything all that worthwhile to the starting lineup. He'd be fine from the bench. Much more room for error in limited minutes and weaker competition.

I totally disagree and reject any concept that Lin may "need" to face weaker competition.

When Lin was putting up big numbers in New York, he did so against starters. Not only did he do so against starters, he did so against specific defenses and defenders designed to stop him:

http://bit.ly/H4cbGr

The NBA’s defending champions treated the Knicks point guard like a force to be reckoned with, putting 6-foot-7 Shawn Marion, one of the league’s elite perimeter defenders, on Lin for most of the game, and frequently trying to double-team Lin off the pick-and-roll.

The Mavericks forced Lin into seven turnovers, but he finished with 28 points and 14 assists, and led the Knicks to a 104-97 win.

“We were trying to put pressure on him in certain areas,” said Marion, who finished with 14 points, seven rebounds, two assists and two steals. “I was able to get out there and get my hands on some passes and create problems, [but] he’s talented. I give him credit. … He works for it.”

Beverley has never faced anything like that attention. And his play is likely to decline should he receive that kind of attention.

Now, the idea that Lin "needs" to face weaker competition is ridiculous. Here are some of the numbers he put up as a starter.

New York
=========

25/05/07
28/02/08
23/04/10
38/04/07
Etc

Houston
========

38/03/07
22/04/08
21/04/08
22/01/05
29/06/08
24/01/08
24/02/06
Etc

Patrick Beverly has never scored more than 16 points in any NBA game.

Again, for people who don't watch Houston's games or are not familiar with Lin or his development, you may want to consider whether or not your want to comment on this subject.

Jeremy Lin is a young and understandably inconsistent player who has a ton of potential. We don't know what he is yet, as we have not seen him play a full, healthy season with significant minutes. We should know more soon.

Fantastic post

[Manitoba]

Nah, at 18.8% TOV, and without volume assists to balance it out, his turnovers damag his overall level of productivity and he's had higher efficiency in bursts before. If he can't put it together for a full season, he isn't worth starting. There are superior specialist options.

You do know the formula for TOV%, don't you? Here, I'll save you the trouble of looking it up:

TOV% = 100 * TOV / (FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV)

It rewards volume shooting: as you take more shots, your TOV% automatically goes down, regardless of whether the shots go in.

Lin's relatively high TOV% merely says that he's not a volume shooter, unlike Westbrook or Irving, both of whom lose the ball more often than Lin -- and both of them are definitely starters. You are really reaching now.

Actually, what it says is that he averages roughly 19 turnovers every 100 plays.

No it doesn't. Look at the TOV% formula again: the more you chuck, the more your TOV% goes down. You can miss all your shots and your TOV% will still go down. TOV% is a pretty useless stat.

Edit: added last sentence.