Jayson Tatum Is Struggling Because...

[madmaxmedia]

It's not asinine; the whole point of bringing up that one bad game is to comment on the fact that the sample size is low. Taking out one bad game in a person's season does not impact a player's stats much if at all, but through 14 games? Yeah, one potential outlier game can really mess up the numbers.

So by that same token let's take out one of his best shooting games since that would be a possible outlier as well. It happens...all players have great games where they get uncannily hot or cold. It's the frequency which they have them which makes it an outlier.

You can't neglect one and not the other unless there's proof that it was an outlier.

By all means, take out Tatum's one game where he shot 34% higher than his seasonal average. Hell, you can even take away the one game where Tatum shot over 20% his seasonal average

Let's take away all his games, and then see where his numbers are smart guy

But seriously, I guess you could look at game logs for his first 2 seasons and see how many 'outlier' type games he has. I'm surprised someone didn't do it already in this thread.

[hoosierdaddy34]

....he isn’t Brandon Ingram.

[FlatearthZorro]

....he isn’t Brandon Ingram.

Good for him that he isn't.

[Darth Celtic]

This is such an asinine counter. I'm sure if you take out one bad game from every single player in the history of competitive sports their stats would look better.

The fact is it happened and it goes into their stats.

It's not asinine; the whole point of bringing up that one bad game is to comment on the fact that the sample size is low. Taking out one bad game in a person's season does not impact a player's stats much if at all, but through 14 games? Yeah, one potential outlier game can really mess up the numbers.

So by that same token let's take out one of his best shooting games since that would be a possible outlier as well. It happens...all players have great games where they get uncannily hot or cold. It's the frequency which they have them which makes it an outlier.

You can't neglect one and not the other unless there's proof that it was an outlier.

there are many many times in stuff other than sports to find a baseline average they throw out the best and worst, and average the others. So yeah, you can do that. And he will still be way above what he is from that 1-18 game because it was 1 game out of 14. His numbers aren't skewed because he shot 35% for 13 games and was 25 for 26 in the 14th.

[Darth Celtic]

It's not asinine; the whole point of bringing up that one bad game is to comment on the fact that the sample size is low. Taking out one bad game in a person's season does not impact a player's stats much if at all, but through 14 games? Yeah, one potential outlier game can really mess up the numbers.

So by that same token let's take out one of his best shooting games since that would be a possible outlier as well. It happens...all players have great games where they get uncannily hot or cold. It's the frequency which they have them which makes it an outlier.

You can't neglect one and not the other unless there's proof that it was an outlier.

You aren't going to find an outlier in the positive as you do with the negative. Do you know how outliers work? Say over a 20 piece sample, a person shoots between 45-50% in 19 contents, but in 1 contest, they shoot 5%. There is only one outlier here. You don't take one out at the top just because you took one out at the bottom. That's not how statistics work.

You really are missing the point of it being a bad idea to make specific conclusions about a player's shooting performance over a small sample size. That's the actual point.

math is hard because it always changes so much........

[Darth Celtic]

So by that same token let's take out one of his best shooting games since that would be a possible outlier as well. It happens...all players have great games where they get uncannily hot or cold. It's the frequency which they have them which makes it an outlier.

You can't neglect one and not the other unless there's proof that it was an outlier.

By all means, take out Tatum's one game where he shot 34% higher than his seasonal average. Hell, you can even take away the one game where Tatum shot over 20% his seasonal average

Let's take away all his games, and then see where his numbers are smart guy

But seriously, I guess you could look at game logs for his first 2 seasons and see how many 'outlier' type games he has. I'm surprised someone didn't do it already in this thread.

showing a player has outlier games in basketball is a thing too. Basically that they are streaky shooters and will shoot you in, and out of games. I don't feel 1 in 14 is enough to call him streaky. If he had many games at 60%, and 3-4 at 10%, I wouldn't be bringing up the fact that you should drop the 1. Or if it was a 5 game sample size. It's big enough to look at, but not big enough to consider struggling for the season because he only really struggled for 1 game out of 14, and it was badly.

In this case season average won't work as much as looking at individual game performances. If you can look at all 14 games and see he was below average on half of them, then maybe he's struggling. But he's not.

[ballup]

So by that same token let's take out one of his best shooting games since that would be a possible outlier as well. It happens...all players have great games where they get uncannily hot or cold. It's the frequency which they have them which makes it an outlier.

You can't neglect one and not the other unless there's proof that it was an outlier.

By all means, take out Tatum's one game where he shot 34% higher than his seasonal average. Hell, you can even take away the one game where Tatum shot over 20% his seasonal average

Let's take away all his games, and then see where his numbers are smart guy

But seriously, I guess you could look at game logs for his first 2 seasons and see how many 'outlier' type games he has. I'm surprised someone didn't do it already in this thread.

I was being sarcastic. Tatum's highest FG% for a single game this season is 56%, which is only 15% higher than his current average.

Outliers are not some new concept people have discovered. They're a basic part of statistics. You don't take out outliers when looking at a full season because there are likely the same amount of positive and negative outliers. When you are dealing with less than a fourth of the season, an negative outlier heavily changes the result especially if you don't have a positive one to balance it out.

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[sfernald]

He couldn't use Tatum in a trade for AD. A trade for AD was literally impossible for Boston last year unless it involved Kyrie because of that weird cap rule.

Then if it comes to trades for kawhi or Butler, Tatum wasn't even really talked about, it was Brown.

See the fear is real. There was a time in Boston where management would have been brave and believed their incredible culture would win over the player. That’s what happens with KG and that was the last time they won a championship. If they had managed to get Kawhi despite the cost then they probably would have had a championship last year. This year they probably could have got one if they had worked out a deal for AD. There’s always an excuse to be an also-ran. No risk takers left I guess. Probably what happens when you feel safe in your job like Ainge does. But Celts will never win a championship the way they are building that team.

If you don't know what you're talking about it is best not to say anything. We didn't win over KG, he signed an extension with the trade.

I like your "probabilities". You really think just trading for a super star makes the team "probably" win a championship? There is much more that goes into winning a championship. Probably means almost certainly.

My mistake. I’m sure Carson Edwards and Tacko Falls will bring you guys to the promised land!

[VanWest82]

Tatum's restricted area percentages

Rookie season: 58%
Sophomore season: 61%
This season: 50%

Tatum's percentages off drives

list]Rookie season: 45%
Sophomore season: 46%
This season: 39%

The percentages clearly show a cold start rather than an issue that has never plagued him during his NBA career.j

but are they flat across all 14 games, or is there 1 game blowing up the %. (hint, it's 1 game, take out the 1-18 game and look at the other 13 games averages in the paint and stuff).

Even if you take out the outlier game, he would be averaging 55% in the restricted area and 40% on drives. Still significantly below his normal rates.

OP's hypothesis doesn't hold weight though. If it were true, Tatum's rates in his first two seasons would match his current one. Plus we all would have been talking about how he gets pushed around like Ingram.

How’s this for an hypothesis? Tatum appears to be trying to create more of his own chances this year (as appose to mostly scoring off cuts or transition, or taking one hard dribble against a close out and finishing at the rim). Perhaps this isn’t just a cold streak but a reflection of the fact that it’s harder to finish around the basket when defenses are keyed in you earlier in the possession.

[VanWest82]

3-11 for 9 points, 0 assists, -27...super underrated.

[Cavsfansince84]

I think he's coming along. Probably still capable of being a 6-7 time all star with a few 3rd team all nba's sprinkled in if he is able to truly take over the team in a few years.

[themoneyteam2]

3-11 for 9 points, 0 assists, -27...super underrated.

Good one?

[WillyJakkz]

3-11 for 9 points, 0 assists, -27...super underrated.

"But you don't watch him play you're just looking at a boxscore"

I could gloat and post that considering how dudes got on me and rushed in here after his good game. We'll see if they post after his bad game as well.

[themoneyteam2]

3-11 for 9 points, 0 assists, -27...super underrated.

"But you don't watch him play you're just looking at a boxscore"

I could gloat and post that considering how dudes got on me and rushed in here after his good game. We'll see if they post after his bad game as well.

Or he just had an average game tonight like everyone on the Celtics offensively at the end of their road trip...

[WillyJakkz]

3-11 for 9 points, 0 assists, -27...super underrated.

"But you don't watch him play you're just looking at a boxscore"

I could gloat and post that considering how dudes got on me and rushed in here after his good game. We'll see if they post after his bad game as well.

Or he just had an average game tonight like everyone on the Celtics offensively at the end of their road trip...

"But if you subtract this last game and his other bad outlier game he's shooting nearly 41%"

Ok I'm done I couldn't help myself

[themoneyteam2]

"But you don't watch him play you're just looking at a boxscore"

I could gloat and post that considering how dudes got on me and rushed in here after his good game. We'll see if they post after his bad game as well.

Or he just had an average game tonight like everyone on the Celtics offensively at the end of their road trip...

"But if you subtract this last game and his other bad outlier game he's shooting nearly 41%"

Ok I'm done I couldn't help myself

Good one?

[ballup]

but are they flat across all 14 games, or is there 1 game blowing up the %. (hint, it's 1 game, take out the 1-18 game and look at the other 13 games averages in the paint and stuff).

Even if you take out the outlier game, he would be averaging 55% in the restricted area and 40% on drives. Still significantly below his normal rates.

OP's hypothesis doesn't hold weight though. If it were true, Tatum's rates in his first two seasons would match his current one. Plus we all would have been talking about how he gets pushed around like Ingram.

How’s this for an hypothesis? Tatum appears to be trying to create more of his own chances this year (as appose to mostly scoring off cuts or transition, or taking one hard dribble against a close out and finishing at the rim). Perhaps this isn’t just a cold streak but a reflection of the fact that it’s harder to finish around the basket when defenses are keyed in you earlier in the possession.

It sounds plausible until you look into the possessions. Start off with the fact that teams aren't zoning in onto him harder this season. Makes no sense to do so when there is Kemba on the team and Hayward was the 2nd playmaker. Tatum was more in transition last season and cutting has never really been something he has relied upon. He went overboard with the ISOs last season, but still made his restricted area shots like he did in his rookie season.

My personal opinion is that he's gone away from using his length like he did in previous season. In the past, finger rolls were about 15% of all his shot types inside the paint. This season, it has dropped to 7%. It's not the only reason for the drop, but one of the smaller ones.

[VanWest82]

Even if you take out the outlier game, he would be averaging 55% in the restricted area and 40% on drives. Still significantly below his normal rates.

OP's hypothesis doesn't hold weight though. If it were true, Tatum's rates in his first two seasons would match his current one. Plus we all would have been talking about how he gets pushed around like Ingram.

How’s this for an hypothesis? Tatum appears to be trying to create more of his own chances this year (as appose to mostly scoring off cuts or transition, or taking one hard dribble against a close out and finishing at the rim). Perhaps this isn’t just a cold streak but a reflection of the fact that it’s harder to finish around the basket when defenses are keyed in you earlier in the possession.

It sounds plausible until you look into the possessions. Start off with the fact that teams aren't zoning in onto him harder this season. Makes no sense to do so when there is Kemba on the team and Hayward was the 2nd playmaker. Tatum was more in transition last season and cutting has never really been something he has relied upon. He went overboard with the ISOs last season, but still made his restricted area shots like he did in his rookie season.

My personal opinion is that he's gone away from using his length like he did in previous season. In the past, finger rolls were about 15% of all his shot types inside the paint. This season, it has dropped to 7%. It's not the only reason for the drop, but one of the smaller ones.

So I went through the nba.com tracking numbers...Very little has changed in terms of splits between number of dribbles taken before a shot, and as you say his isolations are down, but he's being used more as the ball handler in PnR which he isn't very good at yet (0.8 ppp; 41st percentile) so that would support my theory, but not enough to explain the discrepancy.

The main thing that stands out is he's taking more shots where a defender is within 2-4 feet (edit: 6.3 contested FGAs per game last year vs. 9.9 this year). They don't further break that down in terms of where those specific shots are taken on the court, but I wouldn't be surprised if most of them are at the rim.

[Yeezus_]

"But you don't watch him play you're just looking at a boxscore"

I could gloat and post that considering how dudes got on me and rushed in here after his good game. We'll see if they post after his bad game as well.

Or he just had an average game tonight like everyone on the Celtics offensively at the end of their road trip...

"But if you subtract this last game and his other bad outlier game he's shooting nearly 41%"

Ok I'm done I couldn't help myself

If you take out all his bad games, he’s a superstar.

[themoneyteam2]

Or he just had an average game tonight like everyone on the Celtics offensively at the end of their road trip...

"But if you subtract this last game and his other bad outlier game he's shooting nearly 41%"

Ok I'm done I couldn't help myself

If you take out all his bad games, he’s a superstar.

Good one?