Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ)

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NoDopeOnSundays
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#141 » by NoDopeOnSundays » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:27 pm

rugbyrugger23 wrote:
NoDopeOnSundays wrote:The US doesn't want to do anything to help mitigate the problem, they wont use DPA, they won't ramp up testing everywhere, it's just incredible really. Instead, they want to start up the economy ASAP, not realizing once people's loved ones start dropping dead the economy will crumble because the population will be in fear that they could roll that unlucky number. It's just asinine.

I don’t see it that way at all.

I think you meant to say, “I don’t agree with what US has done so far.”



I've seen your posts in this thread and of course you don't see it that way.


And secondly, don't tell me what I meant to say.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#142 » by mademan » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:30 pm



I would hope some people would consider the ramifications of having a country shut down for what looks to be a decent amount of time. Without a vaccine, we're looking at what, 6 months of this? A year? Maybe more. How long can the government support 350 million people without continuous taxes coming in?
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#143 » by MagicBagley18 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:33 pm

Well first and foremost great news on Italy and let’s hope the trends continue to go down, hope everyone here is safe still and those that are sick- stay positive, informed and inside And I send much luck and prayers your way. Anyone whose lost a loved one or friend I share my deepest condolences and my thoughts are with you.

Personally for me I am staying inside, informed and social distancing. it looks like my wedding will be rescheduled- as I see no way happens on June 6th but I also understand that health for myself and more importantly other is way way way more important than anything else right now and it’s not close.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#144 » by jayrehme » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:35 pm

mademan wrote:


I would hope some people would consider the ramifications of having a country shut down for what looks to be a decent amount of time. Without a vaccine, we're looking at what, 6 months of this? A year? Maybe more. How long can the government support 350 million people without continuous taxes coming in?


A depression would kill ALOT more people and destroy most people's lives.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#145 » by Optimus_Steel » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:37 pm

Swish1906 wrote:
Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter


They don't give a Damm about anybody. We are essentially on our own.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#146 » by mademan » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:37 pm

jayrehme wrote:
mademan wrote:


I would hope some people would consider the ramifications of having a country shut down for what looks to be a decent amount of time. Without a vaccine, we're looking at what, 6 months of this? A year? Maybe more. How long can the government support 350 million people without continuous taxes coming in?


A depression would kill ALOT more people and destroy most people's lives.


Which is the point. I get the visceral reaction of some politicians saying chit like this, but someones gotta do that calculus. It's not like an economic depression, which is where we're heading, won't lead to a lot of lost lives too.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#147 » by LKN » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:38 pm

mademan wrote:


I would hope some people would consider the ramifications of having a country shut down for what looks to be a decent amount of time. Without a vaccine, we're looking at what, 6 months of this? A year? Maybe more. How long can the government support 350 million people without continuous taxes coming in?


The government can just print money and send it out. Taxes don't actually fund the government (in fact they destroy money - they don't create it).

However, I do not think this is sustainable super long term. We need to get it under control and try to pivot to a south korea like situation.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#148 » by jayrehme » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:38 pm

mademan wrote:
jayrehme wrote:
mademan wrote:
I would hope some people would consider the ramifications of having a country shut down for what looks to be a decent amount of time. Without a vaccine, we're looking at what, 6 months of this? A year? Maybe more. How long can the government support 350 million people without continuous taxes coming in?


A depression would kill ALOT more people and destroy most people's lives.


Which is the point. I get the visceral reaction of some politicians saying chit like this, but someones gotta do that calculus. It's not like an economic depression, which is where we're heading, won't lead to a lot of lost lives too.


yep, I was agreeing with you.. not to mention the liberties that people are wanting to give away
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#149 » by rugbyrugger23 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:40 pm

LKN wrote:
mademan wrote:


I would hope some people would consider the ramifications of having a country shut down for what looks to be a decent amount of time. Without a vaccine, we're looking at what, 6 months of this? A year? Maybe more. How long can the government support 350 million people without continuous taxes coming in?


The government can just print money and send it out. Taxes don't actually fund the government (in fact they destroy money - they don't create it).

However, I do not think this is sustainable super long term. We need to get it under control and try to pivot to a south korea like situation.

Lol at the “government can ‘just’ print money and send it out.” :banghead:
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#150 » by SK21209 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:41 pm

Declaring today that lockdowns are misguided and we immediately need to pivot to a strategy of opening the economy back up is just as short-sighted as declaring that lockdowns need to stay in place for the next 10 weeks. We need to be constantly re-evaluating the situation and our responses as we learn more about how the virus is affecting our country in particular.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#151 » by MagicBagley18 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:41 pm

Other than finding a cure, and learning from this so moving forward we have infrastructure in place to stop a future pandemic- I hope that for the average person this destroys any illusion that either of the major political parties in this country give a damn about them.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#152 » by LKN » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:42 pm

rugbyrugger23 wrote:
LKN wrote:
mademan wrote:
I would hope some people would consider the ramifications of having a country shut down for what looks to be a decent amount of time. Without a vaccine, we're looking at what, 6 months of this? A year? Maybe more. How long can the government support 350 million people without continuous taxes coming in?


The government can just print money and send it out. Taxes don't actually fund the government (in fact they destroy money - they don't create it).

However, I do not think this is sustainable super long term. We need to get it under control and try to pivot to a south korea like situation.

Lol at the “government can ‘just’ print money and send it out.” :banghead:


They absolutely can... do you even have a basic understanding of how fiat currency works?

All US debt is denominated in US dollars - as long as that is the case we can print money.

Hell - treasury yields were negative the other day - people are basically willing to pay a premium for treasuries and the dollar is stronger than ever.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#153 » by rugbyrugger23 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:42 pm

rugbyrugger23 wrote:
LKN wrote:
mademan wrote:
I would hope some people would consider the ramifications of having a country shut down for what looks to be a decent amount of time. Without a vaccine, we're looking at what, 6 months of this? A year? Maybe more. How long can the government support 350 million people without continuous taxes coming in?


The government can just print money and send it out. Taxes don't actually fund the government (in fact they destroy money - they don't create it).

However, I do not think this is sustainable super long term. We need to get it under control and try to pivot to a south korea like situation.

Lol at the “government can ‘just’ print money and send it out.” :banghead:

First of all, the federal government doesn't create money; that's one of the jobs of the Federal Reserve, the nation's central bank.

The Fed tries to influence the supply of money in the economy to promote noninflationary growth. Unless there is an increase in economic activity commensurate with the amount of money that is created, printing money to pay off the debt would make inflation worse. This would be, as the saying goes, "too much money chasing too few goods."

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#154 » by NY2k1 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:44 pm

mademan wrote:


I would hope some people would consider the ramifications of having a country shut down for what looks to be a decent amount of time. Without a vaccine, we're looking at what, 6 months of this? A year? Maybe more. How long can the government support 350 million people without continuous taxes coming in?


It's not gonna last anywhere near a year, lol. Even 6 months would be pushing it big time.

I'd say around 2-3 months tops. At this point, hopefully, it eases up around the end of April heading into May.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#155 » by LKN » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:44 pm

rugbyrugger23 wrote:
rugbyrugger23 wrote:
LKN wrote:
The government can just print money and send it out. Taxes don't actually fund the government (in fact they destroy money - they don't create it).

However, I do not think this is sustainable super long term. We need to get it under control and try to pivot to a south korea like situation.

Lol at the “government can ‘just’ print money and send it out.” :banghead:

First of all, the federal government doesn't create money; that's one of the jobs of the Federal Reserve, the nation's central bank.

The Fed tries to influence the supply of money in the economy to promote noninflationary growth. Unless there is an increase in economic activity commensurate with the amount of money that is created, printing money to pay off the debt would make inflation worse. This would be, as the saying goes, "too much money chasing too few goods."

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of New York


I'm not saying we should just give everyone infinite money, but a temporary 75-100% salary replacement would not cause inflation.

We've been engaged in massive deficit spending my entire life and the inflation scolds have been wrong for the last 30 years.

My argument was more on the funding side in any case...... the idea that the federal government can "run out of money without taxes" is 100% false.

BTW the government absolutely does create money, we choose to sell bonds to offset that but that's a choice. The fed only creates money when they do things like quantitative easing.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#156 » by jayrehme » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:45 pm

NY2k1 wrote:
mademan wrote:


I would hope some people would consider the ramifications of having a country shut down for what looks to be a decent amount of time. Without a vaccine, we're looking at what, 6 months of this? A year? Maybe more. How long can the government support 350 million people without continuous taxes coming in?


It's not gonna last anywhere near a year, lol. Even 6 months would be pushing it big time.

I'd say around 2-3 months tops. At this point, hopefully, it eases up around the end of April heading into May.


China is still locked down. Is there any cases of lockdowns being removed yet?
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#157 » by zimpy27 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:48 pm

mademan wrote:


I would hope some people would consider the ramifications of having a country shut down for what looks to be a decent amount of time. Without a vaccine, we're looking at what, 6 months of this? A year? Maybe more. How long can the government support 350 million people without continuous taxes coming in?


Well technically essential services are still running. Food production, food retail, water, gas, electricity, sewage, healthcare, police, fire, governance.

All the important aspects for us to live and survive in a society will continue as normal

The rest of it is busy work and shiny garbage. Not that we don't love shiny garbage, we just don't need it to live.
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#158 » by Doug_12 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:50 pm

Dirk wrote:
Dirk wrote:
LKN wrote:This paper touches on this. You can see the different scenarios.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

The conclusion,
Image
Uncharted territory.


This is a fresh paper from Harvard.

Social distancing strategies forcurbing the COVID-19 epidemic
https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/42638988/Social%20distancing%20strategies%20for%20curbing%20the%20COVID-19%20epidemic.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
Highlighting a part...
Image

I didn't have time to read the full paper so my opinion might be hasty, but I feel that's a bit too pessimistic.

If we can suppress the disease now, next time we will have the advantage to be prepared. We will know much more about how it spreads, what the incubation period is and what the most appropriate strategies are for isolation and testing. Simply put: We'll have better procedures. And I believe that it means that less broad measures might be enough to contain the spread.

For example: We will know that if someone got infected we should isolate & test everyone who that people contacted in the last 14 days. And we will test them continously. We would also know that sharing information is important so we will do it and people will be able to report if they might have contacted that guy. People will also be more cooperative as doctors will have proper protective equipment and chance will be minimized to get infected during a testing process - which is not evident right now as few hospitals are prepared for that level of contagiousness.

Also we will have increased health care capacities and experiences on which treatment was the most effective… Plus people will also be more cautious as they experienced what can happen if a disease like this spreads without control. So I can imagine that during the next wave it will be a more or less controlled disease w/ a few times higher fatality rate than the flu.

See Hong Kong or Singapore for example: Those countries seem not to be defeated by this virus and their only advantage is better preparation for a similar disease and higher awareness within the society. Imagine what would happen if we would know this virus well and would have procedures for it specifically ...
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#159 » by NoDopeOnSundays » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:59 pm

Read on Twitter
?s=20
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Re: Semi-OT: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread V (Read Post 1 & FAQ) 

Post#160 » by MagicBagley18 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:08 pm

Anyways let’s hope for more good news in regards to testing and positive trending to continue out of Italy

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