WOJ: Spurs draft Rob Dillingham 8th, then trade him to the TWolves for an unprotected 2031 first

[The-Power]

Awful trade. One the 2031 pick is likely going to be worse off and when I say likely none of us know how good the worlves will be but but the 8th overall pick is already in the top 25 percentile in picks.

Two, they have to wait seven years for the pick to actualize that is wasted time because Rob or whomever they would have taken will already have had their career mapped out by this point.

For me this is a god awful trade even if in some way it works out because it is just a bad bet at this point.

Why do you assume that the Spurs will hold onto the pick until 2030 and 2031, respectively? Maybe they will (in which case they can use it to cheaply add to the roster which by then will have become very expensive and render other means of improvement difficult under existing cap rules) but I would definitely not take that bet. These picks are most likely used in future trades to get actual difference-makers.

[Effigy]

It's a common trade you see in a dynasty fantasy basketball or football league. Wemby is 20 years old. Let's not rush things

That's your defense? "Yo guys, this is totally normal in pretend sports GMing, so why wouldn't this be cool for the real thing?" Uh... any number of reasons? If you're a fantasy GM you know you will keep your team as long as you want it. That's not true for GM jobs. There's a fanastic chance that the guy who made the trade today won't be in charge of the Spurs by 2031. Since fantasy is just make believe, the players on your team have no idea you're giving up on the next few seasons so they don't care. In real life, Wemby knows the Spurs aren't helping him right away and will care. In fantasy you don't have to sell tickets or answer to fans. In real life you do.

This is the argument that I really don't understand.

If I'm a San Antonio Spurs fan, why would I be upset that my GM put the TEAM before his own personal job security and made the smart move?

I'm not sure that's what he did exactly. Instead of taking the risk and selecting someone that may not pan out, he punted 7 years down the line. But that's risky too because Wemby might not still be there in 7 years.

[bkkrh]

Don't really get why people are being upset. It's not like the Spurs traded their only pick, they have the 4th pick and 2 more 2nd rounders in this draft. Most likely they don't want to add 4 rookies to an already super young team, especially if it is considered to be a pretty weak draft. Since we don't know about any different offers, we can only assume that it was the best offer on the table for any of their picks. The trade itself also makes sense.

It gives them future flexibility without any salary commitment.

They can either use those picks themselves at a time where they most likely are a contenting team with Wemby. Normally contenders struggle to add additional talent due to only getting low draft picks. Not only were the Spurs in the past extremely good of adding talent to a contenting team through the draft (from rotation players up to All Stars), they might also get lucky and those picks could be high lottery ones.

They can also be draft capital for a future trade. For the people that complain that no team is interested in picks that convey in 6-7 years, Mikal Bridges was literally traded yesterday for 6 picks, including a 2029 and a 2031 pick. Getting earlier picks like 2025 means they only have about a 1 year window to find a fitting trade.

[dkb964]

Makes sense to me

TWolves were limited on options to improve and liked Dillingham

Spurs didn’t like anyone in this weak draft and gamble on a future unprotected for later

Would’ve been more surprising in any other draft

It is the fact that the pick is in 2031! Could Wemby bolt by then?

No.

Too much team control now a days then. 8 years?! Are you sure?

[Sixers in 4]

Definitely an interesting trade in that there's no way to know how good the draft will be in 2031 or how good the Wolves will be in 2031. Just a complete unknown of an asset.

Lets say the law of averages applies and it's the 16th overall pick in an average draft knowing you have to wait 7 years would you still do the trade?

[ConSarnit]

They can still get there. If they did not see anyone as NBA-ready, this is the smarter way to go about it. Not sure on exact cap space, but if those are veterans on cheap contracts, that's the better move for your "win-now" dreams. i think i like it for the Spurs.

Yeah $8 mill in extra cap space plus an extra pick and a swap to make moves will help them win now a lot more than a rookie Dillingham.
People are being prisoners of the moment here. Dillingham is very likely a huge negative this season. He's a 1-and-done, one-way player that weighs 160 pounds.
I think the move makes sense for Minnesota long term too, don't get me wrong, but I don't understand why people think an offense-only guard who is a disaster on defense will make Wemby happy
Pretty sure Wemby AND the Spurs want Wemby to get lots of reps w the ball in his hands, rather than focusing his efforts on defense so some 6' 1" rookie chucker can get up a bunch of shots.
Tbh Dillingham would have only made sense for the Spurs as a long-term project and tank commander. Anyone who thinks he's a win-now player is out of their depth here imo.

First of all, it's not an extra pick, it's the same number of picks, they are just getting it 7 years from now. Secondly, how does a future pick help winning now more than a rookie? What about next year when Dillingham is a second year player? Or the year after? At what point does Dillingham start outperforming a future draft pick in your mind? Cap space.... maybe. They could convert that to something that helps them sooner. Or they could not spend it now and save it for a future off season. Again, how would that unspent salary help winning more than Dillingham? Do you start to see the illogic of your statement?

What if the Spurs don’t think Dillingham is good? If the Spurs thought Dillingham was going to be some surefire starter down the road they probably don’t trade him. If they think he’s Lou Williams 2.0 then they can probably acquire that type of player for cheaper than what they gave up. Maybe they don’t like him at all. The Spurs didn’t draft Dillingham, they drafted him for the Wolves so we don’t really know what the Spurs think of Dillingham but it obviously isn’t a high opinion.

[tcheco]

Other than being lucky getting #1 pick when a generational talent like Wemby is available they have been very unimpressive

Have they? In the draft I mean

Botched Primo pick, that one was terrible, but other than that:

2016:
Dejounte Murray picked 29 - great pick

2017:
Derrick White picked 29 - great pick

2018:
Loonie Walker picked 18 - average pick for the position

2019:
Samanic picked 19 - below average pick for the position
Keldon picked 29 - good pick

2020:
Vassel picked 11 - good pick for the position
Tre Jones picked 41 - good pick for the position

2021:
Primo picked 12 - bust

2022:
Sochan picked 9 - good pick
Branham picked 20 - average for the position
Wesley picked 25 - average for the position

2023:
Wemby picked 1 - no merits here.

So in the last 9 years(counting this year), picked in the lottery 5 times, with only 1 miss, while getting a good player in 3 of the 4 years picking outside the lottery.

Hard to find a team that that has done better with the picks they got honestly, unimpressive is a stretch

They have solid picks so they haven't been terrible. But again some of those picks even if the players turned out didn't amount to anything for the team. Lonnie Walker walked as a free agent. Derrick White was traded for Blake Wesley and Bostons late first in 2028. Last seven years or so they have 2 first round exits followed by 3 33 win seasons then 2 22 win seasons. They should have pivoted to a tank earlier.


let's say they get #2 and end up with Miller last year. Is their current collection of young talent that they have left over that great?

I still think they've been a good franchise, just don't think they've been that impressive

They have been pedestrial since Leonard left, but that's normal, right? No team can be a dinasty for 30+ years

Boston for example, between 2012-2013 and 2015-2016 had 3 first round exits and missed the playoffs once, and they got "lucky" nets gave them Brown and Tatum to save the franchise.

Lakers had their own terrible run before Lebron and Ad arrived.

Heat sucked for 5 years after Lebron left, before going back to the finals again in the bubble.

Pop and the Spurs are allowed to not be incredible for a few year too, I don't think they made many mistakes too in that period, they held on to LMA one year too many, sure, but other than that, we are complaining on a team that tried not to thank in an era where people complaing that teams tank too much.

Again, not saying Spurs are perfect, but no team has been perfect every year of their existence.

[Castle Black]

Gotta say that the meltdown in here over this is pretty entertaining. Spurs playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers (I hope lol).

[Sealab2024]

Put this in wolves chat but I'll repeat it here: Dillingham to the wolves reminds me of Sam Cassel as a rookie/2nd year guy on those Rockets teams. Came off the bench whenever the Rockets needed an offensive injection and played a very key role despite being a flawed player at that point.

[Castle Black]

I’m just really glad we got Castle, who was my pet cat in this draft. Elite defender, really good passer and rebounder, high IQ player who has an advanced feel for the game, and really excels at getting to the cup. He’s an improved jump shot away from being the next Jimmy Butler or Jrue Holiday imo.

Also, my username just became a lot more relevant

[hippesthippo]

It is the fact that the pick is in 2031! Could Wemby bolt by then?

No.

Too much team control now a days then. 8 years?! Are you sure?

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/player/_/id/82196/victor-wembanyama

4 year rookie contract, plus 5 year supermax rookie extension.

Here is Scottie Barnes contract as an example.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/player/_/id/74111/scottie-barnes

He'd have to really hate money to turn that down. That extension is going to look ridiculous in a few years once the new TV deal has been fully accounted for.

[ConSarnit]

Definitely an interesting trade in that there's no way to know how good the draft will be in 2031 or how good the Wolves will be in 2031. Just a complete unknown of an asset.

Lets say the law of averages applies and it's the 16th overall pick in an average draft knowing you have to wait 7 years would you still do the trade?

There are a lot of variables to consider here that we can’t really know.

Let’s say within the top 15 picks the Spurs identified 7 players they deemed worthy of drafting. What if all of those guys were gone by 8? Now they’re left having to draft a player they ranked 16th with the 8th pick. That’s bad value for the 8th pick. If the Spurs were low on the guys they had in the 8-15 range then it makes sense to kick the can down the road. If they think Dillingham is a microwave 6th man type with bad defense then that player is usually acquirable for a cost that is less than the 8th overall pick. If the Spurs think there is a good starting quality player available at 8 they probably keep the pick.

If I had to guess, the Spurs were not overly high on anyone in that range and they traded out of the spot instead of drafting someone who they thought would have been available at 19 (or somewhere in that range). It doesn’t make sense to take a guy at 8 if you don’t think there are any guys available who are worth the 8th pick.

[Raps in 4]

I feel better about the Poeltl trade now. If Pop didn't feel anyone was worth taking at #8 then I can sleep easy.

[hippesthippo]

That's your defense? "Yo guys, this is totally normal in pretend sports GMing, so why wouldn't this be cool for the real thing?" Uh... any number of reasons? If you're a fantasy GM you know you will keep your team as long as you want it. That's not true for GM jobs. There's a fanastic chance that the guy who made the trade today won't be in charge of the Spurs by 2031. Since fantasy is just make believe, the players on your team have no idea you're giving up on the next few seasons so they don't care. In real life, Wemby knows the Spurs aren't helping him right away and will care. In fantasy you don't have to sell tickets or answer to fans. In real life you do.

This is the argument that I really don't understand.

If I'm a San Antonio Spurs fan, why would I be upset that my GM put the TEAM before his own personal job security and made the smart move?

I'm not sure that's what he did exactly. Instead of taking the risk and selecting someone that may not pan out, he punted 7 years down the line. But that's risky too because Wemby might not still be there in 7 years.

Well, that's the only argument I've seen you make, although it's a big thread.

What's the smart move? Adding a 160lb 18yo microwave scorer who couldn't even start on his team in college?

How many young players do you expect a team to be able to develop at the same time? There is only one ball. They just drafted Stephen Castle, who is a much better fit next to Wemby as he doesn't need the ball in his hands to impact a game.

They also still have Tre Jones, Vassel, Keldon, and Sochan, so whose minutes are you taking away to give to an 18yo PG that you expect will make the team better any time soon?

"Punting," the pick down the road as you put it lets them retain the value that the asset had before it turned into Rob Dillingham. The Spurs decided they'd rather have extra ammo to trade for pieces later down the road when Wembenyama is in his prime than get stuck extending a mediocre talent.

[hippesthippo]

Definitely an interesting trade in that there's no way to know how good the draft will be in 2031 or how good the Wolves will be in 2031. Just a complete unknown of an asset.

Lets say the law of averages applies and it's the 16th overall pick in an average draft knowing you have to wait 7 years would you still do the trade?

The law of averages does not apply to the Timberwolves. Just ask their fans.

[r0drig0lac]

what you can take away from this is that:
- they probably drafted someone they considered the best player available
- another rookie would be a lot to develop
- will probably be active on the market and try to improve the team around Victor with proven players.

[hippesthippo]

Have they? In the draft I mean

Botched Primo pick, that one was terrible, but other than that:

2016:
Dejounte Murray picked 29 - great pick

2017:
Derrick White picked 29 - great pick

2018:
Loonie Walker picked 18 - average pick for the position

2019:
Samanic picked 19 - below average pick for the position
Keldon picked 29 - good pick

2020:
Vassel picked 11 - good pick for the position
Tre Jones picked 41 - good pick for the position

2021:
Primo picked 12 - bust

2022:
Sochan picked 9 - good pick
Branham picked 20 - average for the position
Wesley picked 25 - average for the position

2023:
Wemby picked 1 - no merits here.

So in the last 9 years(counting this year), picked in the lottery 5 times, with only 1 miss, while getting a good player in 3 of the 4 years picking outside the lottery.

Hard to find a team that that has done better with the picks they got honestly, unimpressive is a stretch

They have solid picks so they haven't been terrible. But again some of those picks even if the players turned out didn't amount to anything for the team. Lonnie Walker walked as a free agent. Derrick White was traded for Blake Wesley and Bostons late first in 2028. Last seven years or so they have 2 first round exits followed by 3 33 win seasons then 2 22 win seasons. They should have pivoted to a tank earlier.


let's say they get #2 and end up with Miller last year. Is their current collection of young talent that they have left over that great?

I still think they've been a good franchise, just don't think they've been that impressive

They have been pedestrial since Leonard left, but that's normal, right? No team can be a dinasty for 30+ years

Boston for example, between 2012-2013 and 2015-2016 had 3 first round exits and missed the playoffs once, and they got "lucky" nets gave them Brown and Tatum to save the franchise.

Lakers had their own terrible run before Lebron and Ad arrived.

Heat sucked for 5 years after Lebron left, before going back to the finals again in the bubble.

Pop and the Spurs are allowed to not be incredible for a few year too, I don't think they made many mistakes too in that period, they held on to LMA one year too many, sure, but other than that, we are complaining on a team that tried not to thank in an era where people complaing that teams tank too much.

Again, not saying Spurs are perfect, but no team has been perfect every year of their existence.

It's also worth mentioning some of the players the Celtics drafted over that time period with all of the extra FRP's they had stockpiled. Guys like RJ Hunter, the French Draymond Green, Romeo Langford, etc etc.

They didn't even have room on the roster to develop those guys. Looking back, they would have been much better off trading those picks for future considerations, but they would also have to have found a willing buyer.

[durden_tyler]

A team that won 22 games last year punts on a top-8 pick when players like Cody Williams, Matas Buzelis, Nikola Topic and Devin Carter are sitting there? That doesn't make sense.

Spurs are just smarter than everyone else. They probably see no stars and just mediocre players this draft so the move makes sense.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Smarter than everyone else but they haven't had a winning record since the 2018-19 season.

Sent from my SM-S928U1 using RealGM mobile app

Sure, no team can be great always or forever. This is just the calm before the typhoon called Wemby. Give it two years or so.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ConSarnit]

No.

Too much team control now a days then. 8 years?! Are you sure?

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/player/_/id/82196/victor-wembanyama

4 year rookie contract, plus 5 year supermax rookie extension.

Here is Scottie Barnes contract as an example.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/player/_/id/74111/scottie-barnes

He'd have to really hate money to turn that down. That extension is going to look ridiculous in a few years once the new TV deal has been fully accounted for.

When these picks convey is right around the time the Spurs may face pressure to "build a winner" around Wemby (if they haven't already done so). As such, they can use the MIN picks to make those moves if faced with that dilemma. Or they can use those picks to improve the team in general.

The biggest thing people are missing: the 8th pick this year is not a normal 8th pick. I have heard reports that scouts consider the #1 this year to be the equivalent of the #6 in most normal drafts. If we extrapolate that for #8 then that means having the 8th pick this year is like having the 14th pick in a normal year. Here's the math on that: 50% of the time the 14th pick is going to be an 8th man or worse. There is a 30% chance that guy is out of the league before Wemby is done his 2nd contract. The average outcome is probably around a Cam Payne level player. Sure it's a risk, but the Spurs are betting they can do better than that in the long run.

[ItsDanger]

Get off binary mode. Spurs can use the pick/swap in potential future trades. It's just a way of rolling over the draft capital instead of using it now.