2016-17 MVP Discussion Thread

[Tritodian]

OKC is on pace to win 45-46 games. That's just not good enough. And if Westbrook is really having a historically great offensive season as some people suggest, why isn't he making his team much better than it is now? Don't tell me the supporting cast of Steven Adams, Oladipo, Roberson, and Enes Kanter, combined with historically-great-triple-double-averaging Westbrook is not good enough to get you at least 50 wins. That's nonsense.

Lebron in his early Cleveland days had much worse players around him and still won 60+ games. 14-15 Harden shared most of his playing time with the likes of Ariza, Motiejunas, Beverley, Terry, and Corey Brewer and still won 56 games.

If Westbrook is truly having one of the best offensive seasons that deserve MVP, his team should have much better record than 45-46 wins. Plain and simple.

Oladipo's missed 8 games, or 20 percent of the season. And without him OKC's offense is Sixers level bad. Houston's on the other hand still runs as middle of the pack when Harden sits out.

08-09 Lebron's team had 102.6 ORtg when he sat out (2nd worst in the league), and Lebron led his team to 66 wins.

14-15 Harden's team had 96.6 ORtg when he sat out (2nd worst in the league), and Harden led his team to 56 wins.

Both players led the league in Win Shares and finished near the top in WS/48. Westbrook barely cracks top 10 in both categories. Westbrook has great box score stats due to his abnormally high usage rates; whether that is conducive to winning is entirely different question.

[bmurph128]

Cavs now with a league 5th best SRS, 2nd below Raptors in the East.

SRS won't tell you much about the Cavs.

Big difference between Cavs/Rockets/Raptors - the Cavs seem to let lesser teams back into games. It's an annoying trend, but we're 5-0 against the Raptors/Rockets/Warriors thus far...I'm not going to put too much stock into the fact that the Raptors are blowing out teams more often than the Cavs are.

[bondom34]

OKC is on pace to win 45-46 games. That's just not good enough. And if Westbrook is really having a historically great offensive season as some people suggest, why isn't he making his team much better than it is now? Don't tell me the supporting cast of Steven Adams, Oladipo, Roberson, and Enes Kanter, combined with historically-great-triple-double-averaging Westbrook is not good enough to get you at least 50 wins. That's nonsense.

Lebron in his early Cleveland days had much worse players around him and still won 60+ games. 14-15 Harden shared most of his playing time with the likes of Ariza, Motiejunas, Beverley, Terry, and Corey Brewer and still won 56 games.

If Westbrook is truly having one of the best offensive seasons that deserve MVP, his team should have much better record than 45-46 wins. Plain and simple.

Oladipo's missed 8 games, or 20 percent of the season. And without him OKC's offense is Sixers level bad. Houston's on the other hand still runs as middle of the pack when Harden sits out.

08-09 Lebron's team had 102.6 ORtg when he sat out (2nd worst in the league), and Lebron led his team to 66 wins.

14-15 Harden's team had 96.6 ORtg when he sat out (2nd worst in the league), and Harden led his team to 56 wins.

Both players led the league in Win Shares and finished near the top in WS/48. Westbrook barely cracks top 10 in both categories. Westbrook has great box score stats due to his abnormally high usage rates; whether that is conducive to winning is entirely different question.

14-15 Harden's on court net rating was also worse than Westbrook's. Neither of these 2 seasons compare to Lebron.

Harden isn't more conducive to winning any more than Westbrook. His cast however fits him like a glove and has much more offensive talent. They've still got a positive rating when he sits.

[Tritodian]

Oladipo's missed 8 games, or 20 percent of the season. And without him OKC's offense is Sixers level bad. Houston's on the other hand still runs as middle of the pack when Harden sits out.

08-09 Lebron's team had 102.6 ORtg when he sat out (2nd worst in the league), and Lebron led his team to 66 wins.

14-15 Harden's team had 96.6 ORtg when he sat out (2nd worst in the league), and Harden led his team to 56 wins.

Both players led the league in Win Shares and finished near the top in WS/48. Westbrook barely cracks top 10 in both categories. Westbrook has great box score stats due to his abnormally high usage rates; whether that is conducive to winning is entirely different question.

14-15 Harden's on court net rating was also worse than Westbrook's. Neither of these 2 seasons compare to Lebron.

Harden isn't more conducive to winning any more than Westbrook. His cast however fits him like a glove and has much more offensive talent. They've still got a positive rating when he sits.

NetRtg is an useless stat because it doesn't control for who you play with, and DRtg really distorts the picture. It makes sense to only look at ORtg because Harden, Lebron and Westbrook is/was almost the entirety of their team's offense, and their on/off presence impacts ORtg, not so much DRtg (except Lebron maybe.)

This year's Westbrook isn't carrying any more load than 08-09 Lebron and 14-15 Harden (who also led the league in ORPM, btw), and is winning considerably less. You can't argue that Westbrook is doing everything he can to win when he doesn't even crack top 10 in WS/48. Both Jimmy Butler and the Greek Freak have worse team records and better WS/48 than Westbrook.

[Triples333]

Oladipo's missed 8 games, or 20 percent of the season. And without him OKC's offense is Sixers level bad. Houston's on the other hand still runs as middle of the pack when Harden sits out.

08-09 Lebron's team had 102.6 ORtg when he sat out (2nd worst in the league), and Lebron led his team to 66 wins.

14-15 Harden's team had 96.6 ORtg when he sat out (2nd worst in the league), and Harden led his team to 56 wins.

Both players led the league in Win Shares and finished near the top in WS/48. Westbrook barely cracks top 10 in both categories. Westbrook has great box score stats due to his abnormally high usage rates; whether that is conducive to winning is entirely different question.

14-15 Harden's on court net rating was also worse than Westbrook's. Neither of these 2 seasons compare to Lebron.

Harden isn't more conducive to winning any more than Westbrook. His cast however fits him like a glove and has much more offensive talent. They've still got a positive rating when he sits.

Bear in mind that when he sits their 2nd best player plays Harden-lite against the opposing bench. But this is not a 30-9 cast. He is leading them to a level that is just absurd. 19-2 since November 30th? This team is going to pass their projected win total by the flippin All Star Break and cruise to 55+ wins/HCA on the season. They're 2 games back from the Warriors and tied with the Cavs for **** sake. When you have a team playing at that high of a caliber - especially when NOBODY expected it - and a player playing at this high of a caliber, it's just open/shut. Dude's first year playing point and he's leading the league in apg with an assist% that ranks with the best ever (better than Magic's best), and putting up a super efficient 28 PPG to boot. It's ridiculous.

Westbrook's case is no joke either, but at a certain point the win disparity just makes the close statistical argument moot.

[bondom34]

This year's Westbrook isn't carrying any more load than 08-09 Lebron and 14-15 Harden (who also led the league in ORPM, btw), and is winning considerably less. You can't argue that Westbrook is doing everything he can to win when he doesn't even crack top 10 in WS/48. Both Jimmy Butler and the Greek Freak have worse team records and better WS/48 than Westbrook.

WS is weighted by team ratings. And Westbrook is certainly carrying that much load (at least Harden's).

[bondom34]

08-09 Lebron's team had 102.6 ORtg when he sat out (2nd worst in the league), and Lebron led his team to 66 wins.

14-15 Harden's team had 96.6 ORtg when he sat out (2nd worst in the league), and Harden led his team to 56 wins.

Both players led the league in Win Shares and finished near the top in WS/48. Westbrook barely cracks top 10 in both categories. Westbrook has great box score stats due to his abnormally high usage rates; whether that is conducive to winning is entirely different question.

14-15 Harden's on court net rating was also worse than Westbrook's. Neither of these 2 seasons compare to Lebron.

Harden isn't more conducive to winning any more than Westbrook. His cast however fits him like a glove and has much more offensive talent. They've still got a positive rating when he sits.

Bear in mind that when he sits their 2nd best player plays Harden-lite against the opposing bench. But this is not a 30-9 cast. He is leading them to a level that is just absurd. 19-2 since November 30th? This team is going to pass their projected win total by the flippin All Star Break and cruise to 55+ wins/HCA on the season. They're 2 games back from the Warriors and tied with the Cavs for **** sake. When you have a team playing at that high of a caliber - especially when NOBODY expected it - and a player playing at this high of a caliber, it's just open/shut. Dude's first year playing point and he's leading the league in apg with an assist% that ranks with the best ever (better than Magic's best), and putting up a super efficient 28 PPG to boot. It's ridiculous.

Westbrook's case is no joke either, but at a certain point the win disparity just makes the close statistical argument moot.

I didn't say it wasn't Harden's, it is. But saying Westbrook isn't having a similar season is just incorrect.

[Tritodian]

14-15 Harden's on court net rating was also worse than Westbrook's. Neither of these 2 seasons compare to Lebron.

Harden isn't more conducive to winning any more than Westbrook. His cast however fits him like a glove and has much more offensive talent. They've still got a positive rating when he sits.

Bear in mind that when he sits their 2nd best player plays Harden-lite against the opposing bench. But this is not a 30-9 cast. He is leading them to a level that is just absurd. 19-2 since November 30th? This team is going to pass their projected win total by the flippin All Star Break and cruise to 55+ wins/HCA on the season. They're 2 games back from the Warriors and tied with the Cavs for **** sake. When you have a team playing at that high of a caliber - especially when NOBODY expected it - and a player playing at this high of a caliber, it's just open/shut. Dude's first year playing point and he's leading the league in apg with an assist% that ranks with the best ever (better than Magic's best), and putting up a super efficient 28 PPG to boot. It's ridiculous.

Westbrook's case is no joke either, but at a certain point the win disparity just makes the close statistical argument moot.

I didn't say it wasn't Harden's, it is. But saying Westbrook isn't having a similar season is just incorrect.

Westbrook is having a great year, but at some point his team just gotta win more. I don't buy the argument that averaging a triple-double automatically qualifies you as the MVP, when averaging double figures in points and assists is not that difficult considering his historically high usage rates. A lot of players in this league can do that, if they're allowed to have the same usage rates as Westbrook's. The only part that is semi-impressive is Russ' rebounding numbers, but OKC's bigs seem to defer a lot of their rebounds to Westbrook.

[bondom34]

Westbrook is having a great year, but at some point his team just gotta win more. I don't buy the argument that averaging a triple-double automatically qualifies you as the MVP, when averaging double figures in points and assists in not that difficult considering his historically high usage rates. A lot of players in this league can do that, if they're allowed to have the same usage rates as Westbrook's. The only part that is semi-impressive is Russ' rebounding numbers, but OKC's bigs seem to defer a lot of their rebounds to Westbrook.

1. Assists aren't involved in usage rate.
2. If more players could, why haven't they?
3.

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

So they have essentially the same output despite Westbrook's offensive cast being a bit worse.

[Triples333]

Westbrook is having a great year, but at some point his team just gotta win more. I don't buy the argument that averaging a triple-double automatically qualifies you as the MVP, when averaging double figures in points and assists in not that difficult considering his historically high usage rates. A lot of players in this league can do that, if they're allowed to have the same usage rates as Westbrook's. The only part that is semi-impressive is Russ' rebounding numbers, but OKC's bigs seem to defer a lot of their rebounds to Westbrook.

1. Assists aren't involved in usage rate.
2. If more players could, why haven't they?
3.

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

So they have essentially the same output despite Westbrook's offensive cast being a bit worse.

Difference is Harden is putting up his points on a 61% TS to Westbrook's 54.6% TS, a higher ORPM, has more than 1/3rd more offensive win shares, and a 119 O rating to Westbrook's 111.

Granted he is underselling Westbrook significantly.

[HurricaneKid]

Westbrook is having a great year, but at some point his team just gotta win more. I don't buy the argument that averaging a triple-double automatically qualifies you as the MVP, when averaging double figures in points and assists in not that difficult considering his historically high usage rates. A lot of players in this league can do that, if they're allowed to have the same usage rates as Westbrook's. The only part that is semi-impressive is Russ' rebounding numbers, but OKC's bigs seem to defer a lot of their rebounds to Westbrook.

1. Assists aren't involved in usage rate.
2. If more players could, why haven't they?
3.

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

So they have essentially the same output despite Westbrook's offensive cast being a bit worse.

Same output. Different inputs. Westbrook is using more possessions to get there. 110 more missed shots to get to the same point. That's a LOT of possessions.

[Tritodian]

Westbrook is having a great year, but at some point his team just gotta win more. I don't buy the argument that averaging a triple-double automatically qualifies you as the MVP, when averaging double figures in points and assists in not that difficult considering his historically high usage rates. A lot of players in this league can do that, if they're allowed to have the same usage rates as Westbrook's. The only part that is semi-impressive is Russ' rebounding numbers, but OKC's bigs seem to defer a lot of their rebounds to Westbrook.

1. Assists aren't involved in usage rate.
2. If more players could, why haven't they?
3.

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

So they have essentially the same output despite Westbrook's offensive cast being a bit worse.

Because one player dominating the ball to that extent isn't necessarily the best way to win games.

The stat you cited also doesn't say anything about efficiency. Yeah, the output might be similar, but if Westbrook takes more attempts to match that same output (which seems to be the case at least scoring wise), that is not the same.

[bondom34]

Same output. Different inputs. Westbrook is using more possessions to get there. 196 more shots to this point. That's a LOT of possessions.

Also actually a smaller time of possession per game and 25 less TOs total. Also 192 shots, though minor difference.

Difference is Harden is putting up his points on a 61% TS to Westbrook's 54.6% TS, a higher ORPM, has more than 1/3rd more offensive win shares, and a 119 O rating to Westbrook's 111.

And Westbrook leads in overall RPM and BPM, as well as VORP and on/off. Again, not saying he's winning. But he's having a remarkably similar season with a supporting cast that falls apart when he's off court.

[bondom34]

Because one player dominating the ball to that extent isn't necessarily the best way to win games.

The stat you cited also doesn't say anything about efficiency. Yeah, the output might be similar, but if Westbrook takes more attempts to match that same output (which seems to be the case at least scoring wise), that is not the same.

Harden dominates the ball more. Shown by time of possession being greater. And Westbrook's lifting a mostly awful offensive cast.

[Tritodian]

Because one player dominating the ball to that extent isn't necessarily the best way to win games.

The stat you cited also doesn't say anything about efficiency. Yeah, the output might be similar, but if Westbrook takes more attempts to match that same output (which seems to be the case at least scoring wise), that is not the same.

Harden dominates the ball more. Shown by time of possession being greater. And Westbrook's lifting a mostly awful offensive cast.

I should have said dominating possessions. Don't tell me there isn't any difference between Harden/Lebron's approach to the game and Westbrook's because there is. 08-09 Lebron and 14-15 Harden both had awful offensive cast, and didn't even come close to Westbrook's current usage rate. Russ is routinely shooting 30+ times in a game; you put Harden or Lebron on any bottom feeder team, and they still wouldn't do that.

[HurricaneKid]

Same output. Different inputs. Westbrook is using more possessions to get there. 196 more shots to this point. That's a LOT of possessions.

Also actually a smaller time of possession per game and 25 less TOs total. Also 192 shots, though minor difference.

Difference is Harden is putting up his points on a 61% TS to Westbrook's 54.6% TS, a higher ORPM, has more than 1/3rd more offensive win shares, and a 119 O rating to Westbrook's 111.

And Westbrook leads in overall RPM and BPM, as well as VORP and on/off. Again, not saying he's winning. But he's having a remarkably similar season with a supporting cast that falls apart when he's off court.

I kind of have a rule about using naked on/off on anything less than a full season. Even then its dubious as it ignores rotations, etc.

They both have the ball too much. At least Harden's team is a really good offensive team. You can have the ball too much if you can lead your team to a top 3 offense IMO.

Overall RPM is neck and neck. if we are talking about hundredths of a point in a stat that isn't worthy of nearly that level of certainty, its all the same. Comes down to 121 more missed shots to 25 more TOs. I was critical of Harden's recent TO issues if you look above. He has had 6+ for 9 straight games now and I cannot get BBR to show anyone else with more than 5 straight such games.

[bondom34]

Same output. Different inputs. Westbrook is using more possessions to get there. 196 more shots to this point. That's a LOT of possessions.

Also actually a smaller time of possession per game and 25 less TOs total. Also 192 shots, though minor difference.

Difference is Harden is putting up his points on a 61% TS to Westbrook's 54.6% TS, a higher ORPM, has more than 1/3rd more offensive win shares, and a 119 O rating to Westbrook's 111.

And Westbrook leads in overall RPM and BPM, as well as VORP and on/off. Again, not saying he's winning. But he's having a remarkably similar season with a supporting cast that falls apart when he's off court.

I kind of have a rule about using naked on/off on anything less than a full season. Even then its dubious as it ignores rotations, etc.

They both have the ball too much. At least Harden's team is a really good offensive team. You can have the ball too much if you can lead your team to a top 3 offense IMO.

Overall RPM is neck and neck. if we are talking about hundredths of a point in a stat that isn't worthy of nearly that level of certainty, its all the same. Comes down to 121 more missed shots to 25 more TOs. I was critical of Harden's recent TO issues if you look above. He has had 6+ for 9 straight games now and I cannot get BBR to show anyone else with more than 5 straight such games.

This seems totally counter intuitive. You'd rather your best (by a massive margin) offensive player have the ball less on a bad offensive team.

[bondom34]

Because one player dominating the ball to that extent isn't necessarily the best way to win games.

The stat you cited also doesn't say anything about efficiency. Yeah, the output might be similar, but if Westbrook takes more attempts to match that same output (which seems to be the case at least scoring wise), that is not the same.

Harden dominates the ball more. Shown by time of possession being greater. And Westbrook's lifting a mostly awful offensive cast.

I should have said dominating possessions. Don't tell me there isn't any difference between Harden/Lebron's approach to the game and Westbrook's because there is. 08-09 Lebron and 14-15 Harden both had awful offensive cast, and didn't even come close to Westbrook's current usage rate. Russ is routinely shooting 30+ times in a game; you put Harden or Lebron on any bottom feeder team, and they still wouldn't do that.

Lebron, I agree. Harden not so much. He's never had this inept an offense around him.

[Tritodian]

Harden dominates the ball more. Shown by time of possession being greater. And Westbrook's lifting a mostly awful offensive cast.

I should have said dominating possessions. Don't tell me there isn't any difference between Harden/Lebron's approach to the game and Westbrook's because there is. 08-09 Lebron and 14-15 Harden both had awful offensive cast, and didn't even come close to Westbrook's current usage rate. Russ is routinely shooting 30+ times in a game; you put Harden or Lebron on any bottom feeder team, and they still wouldn't do that.

Lebron, I agree. Harden not so much. He's never had this inept an offense around him.

14-15 Rockets had 96.6 ORtg when Harden was off the court (2nd worst in the league.)

14-15 Houston minutes played ranking

1. James Harden
2. Trevor Ariza
3. Donatas Motiejunas
4. Patrick Beverley
5. Jason Terry
6. Corey Brewer

Harden's usage rate was 31.3% in that year.

[bondom34]

I should have said dominating possessions. Don't tell me there isn't any difference between Harden/Lebron's approach to the game and Westbrook's because there is. 08-09 Lebron and 14-15 Harden both had awful offensive cast, and didn't even come close to Westbrook's current usage rate. Russ is routinely shooting 30+ times in a game; you put Harden or Lebron on any bottom feeder team, and they still wouldn't do that.

Lebron, I agree. Harden not so much. He's never had this inept an offense around him.

14-15 Rockets had 96.6 ORtg when Harden was off the court (2nd worst in the league.)

14-15 Houston minutes played ranking

1. James Harden
2. Trevor Ariza
3. Donatas Motiejunas
4. Patrick Beverley
5. Jason Terry
6. Corey Brewer

Harden's usage rate was 31.3% in that year.

Good call on the rating. After that, Westbrook's most played with players:

Adams
Roberson
Oladipo
Grant
Sabonis

So, of those Oladipo is the only one capable of any scoring at all. You could suggest he let them shoot, but there's a reason they don't. Most of them can't.

Edit: Also why are we comparing old Harden to this season's Westbrook at all. I thought Harden should have been MVP that year to begin with.