2021-22 NBA Rookie Thread (part 6) - with ROY poll

[ForeverTFC]

Objectively talking about players and prospects is hating? I can objectively say Barnes is an awful shooter. The same way I can objectively say Mobley can't create for himself. The same way I can objectively say Cade is not an efficient scorer and turnover prone.

Yes, they are all good. But when you are deciding on a rank for the season, you need to cite objective reasons for why your candidate should be placed above the other candidates. That requires that you present comparative statements which will paint one in a negative light by nature. It's only "hating" if the rationale is not objective or well supported if subjective. Otherwise, the offended party just doesn't want to face the truth.

[Dino-Might]

On the Barnes vs. Cade comparison, lets look a few different things here:

Turnovers: Cade has 228 and Barnes has 130 (-98 for Cade)
Offensive Rebounds: Cade has 59 to Barnes with 191 (-132 for Cade)

Just looking at turnovers and offensive rebounds, Barnes has generated (or not lost) 230 MORE possessions for his team than Cade!

Add in the fact that Cade has taken 111 more shots than Barnes (1013 to 902) to score 2 more points which is basically a wash(1100 to 1098).

Any difference between Cade and Barnes in terms of Cade creating more scoring opportunities for his teammates or controlling the pace of the game (difference of 102 total assists in favour of Cade) simply cannot offset the extra possessions and more efficient shooting from Barnes.

Now some might point out that I have used season totals, rather than per game averages, when Barnes has played 8 more games. I have just picked season averages because it tends to show differences more. But remember that using season averages as opposed to per game actually helps minimize Cade's negative stats (turnovers and his missed shots).

This was all on the offensive end. On the defensive end, Barnes is clearly the better, more versatile and valuable player.

Given all of this, is it any wonder that Barnes destroys Cade on almost every single advanced stats metrics?

First one is Scottie and second one is Cade:

OWS DWS WS WS/48 OBPM DBPM BPM VORP Raptors WAR PER PIE FIC RPM Lebron EPM DPM
3.7 2.9 6.5 .125 0.6 0.4 1.1 1.9 +0.8 4.6 16.56 10.9 952.6 2.59 -0.06 +0.1 0
2.1 1.9 -0.2 -0.005 -0.9 -0.5 -1.4 0.3 -1.2 1.6 13.41 10.2 696.5 0.87 -0.70 -0.1 -0.3


I acknowledge that Cade has played much better since the all-star break, particularly in terms of his efficiency. Had he done this all year, he may have been the ROTY. But this is a year long award so what Cade did in the early part of the season counts just as much as what he has done in the second half. But for the entire year, Barnes has clearly been the better player.

Also, this does not mean that Cade will not be the best player out of this draft. Certainly, Cade is trending upwards, as is Green. It all depends on how each of these top four picks develops over the next several years.

But as far as ROTY, I think Barnes is clearly more deserving than Cade.

[whitehops]

Objectively talking about players and prospects is hating? I can objectively say Barnes is an awful shooter. The same way I can objectively say Mobley can't create for himself. The same way I can objectively say Cade is not an efficient scorer and turnover prone.

if you wanted to be objective you would say that all the ROY candidates are inefficient scorers. kuminga is the only rookie drafted in the top 10 to not be below league-average TS%.

[Marty_Budda]

Objectively talking about players and prospects is hating? I can objectively say Barnes is an awful shooter. The same way I can objectively say Mobley can't create for himself. The same way I can objectively say Cade is not an efficient scorer and turnover prone.

if you wanted to be objective you would say that all the ROY candidates are inefficient scorers. kuminga is the only rookie drafted in the top 10 to not be below league-average TS%.

Nice try. Problem with league wide TS% averages is it’s always skewed by big lumping Cs putting up like 70% TS by only getting their points through alley oops and put-backs. Barnes is at 55% TS which is actually average for his position. Cade’s is way below for his and so is his assist to turnover ratio.

[Kameleon]

Because he is the best, and not even close. From day one.

Read on Twitter

Wtf.......

How can you possibly have Mobley still at #1??????????

[Vampirate]

Objectively talking about players and prospects is hating? I can objectively say Barnes is an awful shooter. The same way I can objectively say Mobley can't create for himself. The same way I can objectively say Cade is not an efficient scorer and turnover prone.

if you wanted to be objective you would say that all the ROY candidates are inefficient scorers. kuminga is the only rookie drafted in the top 10 to not be below league-average TS%.

Going to be honest, probably the biggest reason why Cade's efficiency is what is is, is because 3 point shooting is just not his forte this season.

Highlighted in green are where he is shooting well at, especially for a rookie, highlighted in red are areas he is struggling at.



As you can see, he is taking the majority of his shots this season from the 3 point range, and while he is not as bad as shooter as Barnes or Mobley there, it's not the area he excels at. His shooting from the 16-3P, area further illustrates this.

Contrast this with him shooting 43.4% from 0-3 feet and 43% from 10-16 feet which is very good for a rookie and you can see where he shines at.

Cade this year would be much better off taking shots closer to the rim, his efficiency from 3-16 feet means he doesn't really need to be at the basket to score, just close enough.

Obviously you still need Cade to take a few three a games to keep the defense honest, but I think it's more to supplement his real strength, which is shooting from 3-16 feet. In other words, imo his strength is pretty much the mid range, especially closer in.

[PhilBlackson]

Because he is the best, and not even close. From day one.

Read on Twitter

Wtf.......

How can you possibly have Mobley still at #1??????????

Too bad raw stats, advanced stats AND win shares all say that isn't true...

[Marty_Budda]

Because he is the best, and not even close. From day one.

Read on Twitter

Wtf.......

How can you possibly have Mobley still at #1??????????

Too bad raw stats, advanced stats AND win shares all say that isn't true...

Shhh they don’t want to hear about stats. It’s how they FEEL.

Seriously though, if Mobley and Barnes won co-ROY I think that’d be fair. They’ve both been great all season.

But pistons fans coming on here and swearing by cade when he only showed up for half a season and the other half was largely trash…that I can’t get behind

[ForeverTFC]

Objectively talking about players and prospects is hating? I can objectively say Barnes is an awful shooter. The same way I can objectively say Mobley can't create for himself. The same way I can objectively say Cade is not an efficient scorer and turnover prone.

if you wanted to be objective you would say that all the ROY candidates are inefficient scorers. kuminga is the only rookie drafted in the top 10 to not be below league-average TS%.

Going to be honest, probably the biggest reason why Cade's efficiency is what is is, is because 3 point shooting is just not his forte this season.

Highlighted in green are where he is shooting well at, especially for a rookie, highlighted in red are areas he is struggling at.



As you can see, he is taking the majority of his shots this season from the 3 point range, and while he is not as bad as shooter as Barnes or Mobley there, it's not the area he excels at. His shooting from the 16-3P, area further illustrates this.

Contrast this with him shooting 43.4% from 0-3 feet and 43% from 10-16 feet which is very good for a rookie and you can see where he shines at.

Cade this year would be much better off taking shots closer to the rim, his efficiency from 3-16 feet means he doesn't really need to be at the basket to score, just close enough.

Obviously you still need Cade to take a few three a games to keep the defense honest, but I think it's more to supplement his real strength, which is shooting from 3-16 feet. In other words, imo his strength is pretty much the mid range, especially closer in.

He's taking the 3s because he's being left open there. 95% of his 3s in tracked games come with at least 4 feet of space, defined as at least "open". 55% come when the defender is 6ft+ in distance, defined as "wide open". If you go further into his mid-range game - 2pt FG, >10 feet from the basket - his %s are in the low .30s unless he is open. Cade is taking the shots behind the arc because he's being given those shots. If he can hit those, he's likely to be guarded closer, which probably gives him more space in the mid-range. On a winning team, he would not get the shots he got this year, it's that simple.

Now, I've said multiple times in threads like this that many great players - notably KD - were inefficient as rookies. I am not saying that Cade is a bad prospect as a result of these numbers or that he will be an awful shooter (his FT% tells us he is not). BUT, when deciding on an award for 1 year, he is clearly not an efficient scorer and is taking ill-advised shots.

There just isn't an objective argument for Cade over Mobley or Barnes for the 2021/2022 season.

[Vampirate]

if you wanted to be objective you would say that all the ROY candidates are inefficient scorers. kuminga is the only rookie drafted in the top 10 to not be below league-average TS%.

Going to be honest, probably the biggest reason why Cade's efficiency is what is is, is because 3 point shooting is just not his forte this season.

Highlighted in green are where he is shooting well at, especially for a rookie, highlighted in red are areas he is struggling at.



As you can see, he is taking the majority of his shots this season from the 3 point range, and while he is not as bad as shooter as Barnes or Mobley there, it's not the area he excels at. His shooting from the 16-3P, area further illustrates this.

Contrast this with him shooting 43.4% from 0-3 feet and 43% from 10-16 feet which is very good for a rookie and you can see where he shines at.

Cade this year would be much better off taking shots closer to the rim, his efficiency from 3-16 feet means he doesn't really need to be at the basket to score, just close enough.

Obviously you still need Cade to take a few three a games to keep the defense honest, but I think it's more to supplement his real strength, which is shooting from 3-16 feet. In other words, imo his strength is pretty much the mid range, especially closer in.

He's taking the 3s because he's being left open there. 95% of his 3s in tracked games come with at least 4 feet of space, defined as at least "open". 55% come when the defender is 6ft+ in distance, defined as "wide open". If you go further into his mid-range game - 2pt FG, >10 feet from the basket - his %s are in the low .30s unless he is open. Cade is taking the shots behind the arc because he's being given those shots. If he can hit those, he's likely to be guarded closer, which probably gives him more space in the mid-range. On a winning team, he would not get the shots he got this year, it's that simple.

Now, I've said multiple times in threads like this that many great players - notably KD - were inefficient as rookies. I am not saying that Cade is a bad prospect as a result of these numbers or that he will be an awful shooter (his FT% tells us he is not). BUT, when deciding on an award for 1 year, he is clearly not an efficient scorer and is taking ill-advised shots.

There just isn't an objective argument for Cade over Mobley or Barnes for the 2021/2022 season.

I'm a believer that you can either do something, or you can't, until proven otherwise.

It's one thing to say 'yeah, once this player gains strength, he'll shoot better there'. And that argument is all well and good but doesn't explain a player like Giannis, who by all accounts because of his size and length is 'open' constantly when he wants to be. In other words, he'll be able to get any shot he wants.

Giannis shooting.



The simple fact is Cade despite not having the quickness, size and strength of Giannis has, has been simply better from 3-10 feet overall in his rookie year and has basically matched Giannis best season from 10-16 feet.

We can debate why, but at the end of the day you still need to sink the shots you take, Giannis until the last few years despite having the overwhelming physical advantage, has just struggled from 3-10 feet for most of his career.

"So what, he can get to the basket at will" you might say.

Yes, that's true, however if he was shooting over 40% from 3-10 feet every year he'd basically be unstoppable.


In short, we can debate how every rookie got their numbers, but you still need to actually put the ball in the basket, regardless of athletic ability, height etc.

[whitehops]

He's taking the 3s because he's being left open there. 95% of his 3s in tracked games come with at least 4 feet of space, defined as at least "open". 55% come when the defender is 6ft+ in distance, defined as "wide open". If you go further into his mid-range game - 2pt FG, >10 feet from the basket - his %s are in the low .30s unless he is open. Cade is taking the shots behind the arc because he's being given those shots. If he can hit those, he's likely to be guarded closer, which probably gives him more space in the mid-range. On a winning team, he would not get the shots he got this year, it's that simple.

Now, I've said multiple times in threads like this that many great players - notably KD - were inefficient as rookies. I am not saying that Cade is a bad prospect as a result of these numbers or that he will be an awful shooter (his FT% tells us he is not). BUT, when deciding on an award for 1 year, he is clearly not an efficient scorer and is taking ill-advised shots.

There just isn't an objective argument for Cade over Mobley or Barnes for the 2021/2022 season.

players try to take open shots. that's pretty much the entire point of an offense. 85% of FVV's 3 pointers are open or wide open but teams definitely don't leave him open to take them... curry is the best shooter alive and 75% of his threes are open or wide open.

cade also has dribble moves to get open looks, even when he's being defended. look at the third clip in this highlight:

Watch on YouTube

both dorian finney-smith and doncic did their best to stop cade and yet he ended up with a shot that would be considered "open", because he created the space for the shot and hit it.

and one objective argument would be that historically ROY isn't given to role players. mike miller was the last player given ROY with a usage below 20% and that was 21 years ago. barnes is below 20% and while mobley is at 20.3%, he would have the lowest usage since miller too.

[Vampirate]

He's taking the 3s because he's being left open there. 95% of his 3s in tracked games come with at least 4 feet of space, defined as at least "open". 55% come when the defender is 6ft+ in distance, defined as "wide open". If you go further into his mid-range game - 2pt FG, >10 feet from the basket - his %s are in the low .30s unless he is open. Cade is taking the shots behind the arc because he's being given those shots. If he can hit those, he's likely to be guarded closer, which probably gives him more space in the mid-range. On a winning team, he would not get the shots he got this year, it's that simple.

Now, I've said multiple times in threads like this that many great players - notably KD - were inefficient as rookies. I am not saying that Cade is a bad prospect as a result of these numbers or that he will be an awful shooter (his FT% tells us he is not). BUT, when deciding on an award for 1 year, he is clearly not an efficient scorer and is taking ill-advised shots.

There just isn't an objective argument for Cade over Mobley or Barnes for the 2021/2022 season.

players try to take open shots. that's pretty much the entire point of an offense. 85% of FVV's 3 pointers are open or wide open but teams definitely don't leave him open to take them... curry is the best shooter alive and 75% of his threes are open or wide open.

cade also has dribble moves to get open looks, even when he's being defended. look at the third clip in this highlight:

Watch on YouTube

both dorian finney-smith and doncic did their best to stop cade and yet he ended up with a shot that would be considered "open", because he created the space for the shot and hit it.

Here's a very simple question for everyone involved. For opposing fans on the top 4 picks. Regardless on how you think they will progress through the years.

Offensively.

What is Mobley really good at?

What does Mobley need to do to become a #1 option on a championship team in your eyes?


What is Jalen Green really good at?

What does Jalen Green need to do to become a #1 option on a championship team in your eyes?


What is Scottie Barnes really good at?

What does Scottie Barnes need to do to become a #1 option on a championship team in your eyes?


What is Cade really good at?

What does Cade need to do to become a #1 option on a championship team in your eyes?


No sarcastic remarks please, give some actual analysis, thanks.

[ForeverTFC]

He's taking the 3s because he's being left open there. 95% of his 3s in tracked games come with at least 4 feet of space, defined as at least "open". 55% come when the defender is 6ft+ in distance, defined as "wide open". If you go further into his mid-range game - 2pt FG, >10 feet from the basket - his %s are in the low .30s unless he is open. Cade is taking the shots behind the arc because he's being given those shots. If he can hit those, he's likely to be guarded closer, which probably gives him more space in the mid-range. On a winning team, he would not get the shots he got this year, it's that simple.

Now, I've said multiple times in threads like this that many great players - notably KD - were inefficient as rookies. I am not saying that Cade is a bad prospect as a result of these numbers or that he will be an awful shooter (his FT% tells us he is not). BUT, when deciding on an award for 1 year, he is clearly not an efficient scorer and is taking ill-advised shots.

There just isn't an objective argument for Cade over Mobley or Barnes for the 2021/2022 season.

players try to take open shots. that's pretty much the entire point of an offense. 85% of FVV's 3 pointers are open or wide open but teams definitely don't leave him open to take them... curry is the best shooter alive and 75% of his threes are open or wide open.

cade also has dribble moves to get open looks, even when he's being defended. look at the third clip in this highlight:

Watch on YouTube

both dorian finney-smith and doncic did their best to stop cade and yet he ended up with a shot that would be considered "open", because he created the space for the shot and hit it.

and one objective argument would be that historically ROY isn't given to role players. mike miller was the last player given ROY with a usage below 20% and that was 21 years ago. barnes is below 20% and while mobley is at 20.3%, he would have the lowest usage since miller too.

FVV % 3pta wide open (6+ feet) = 35%
Curry % 3pta wide open (6+ feet) = 26%
Cade % 3pta wide open (6+ feet) = 55%

Cade is being left open at the 3 point line.

[CptCrunch]

There is one prospects who needed excuses for college, and now excuses in the NBA. All I know is that prospect isn't the ROY.

Mobley is the ROY, Barnes slightly behind. Cade isn't in the convo period.

[tdotrep2]

There is one prospects who needed excuses for college, and now excuses in the NBA. All I know is that prospect isn't the ROY.

Mobley is the ROY, Barnes slightly behind. Cade isn't in the convo period.

why is mobley roy?

[CoachD]

The amount of things Barnes has done this season where you hear the words "first rookie since ...." clinch it for me.

Regardless... the voters will give it to Mobley because they decided that in December ... but Barnes is a future perennial all star

[Plain Old Josh]

Dan Devine of The Ringer picks Scottie Barnes for ROY. He has a vote.

Barnes leads all players who’ve logged at least 1,000 minutes this season in defensive versatility, according to The BBall Index, spending nearly equal amounts of floor time checking opponents at all five positions. He’s not getting easy assignments, either: Barnes’s most frequent matchups include elite wings like Tatum, Harden, Durant, Doncic, LeBron, and Jimmy Butler, and during recent high-leverage games, Nurse has also slotted him onto elite big men like Jokic and Karl-Anthony Towns.

Barnes has spent a bunch of floor time in gigantic Raptors lineups featuring zero conventional point guards, in which Nurse enlists one of Toronto’s many huge dudes to bring the ball up the court, initiate sets, run pick-and-roll, hunt mismatches, and attack their own if they get one. Barnes has proved a quick study at that, eminently capable of finding the soft spots in defensive coverages and leveraging his size, quickness, and vision to generate good looks for himself and others. He’s broken through the rookie wall, too, playing his best ball of the season when it matters most—just under 18-8-4 on 53 percent shooting since the All-Star break—as the Raptors chase the fifth seed down the stretch.

Here's his awards picks:
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2022/4/7/23014604/nba-awards-mvp-giannis-antetokounmpo-nikola-jokic-joel-embiid

[7r5ur]

Can we change the name of these threads to "Raptors fans endlessly discussing the flaws of other team's best rookies thread 2021-2022"?

[Bruin]

Can we change the name of these threads to "Raptors fans endlessly discussing the flaws of other team's best rookies thread 2021-2022"?

You might be the 100th person to say this. Aside from not actually contributing to this discussion/thread, what do you gain from repeating something that’s been said several times all season?

It’s a known fact that the Raptors fan base is the largest in RGM so it really shouldn’t be surprising that the thread has more Raptors fans posting in it

[7r5ur]

Can we change the name of these threads to "Raptors fans endlessly discussing the flaws of other team's best rookies thread 2021-2022"?

You might be the 100th person to say this. Aside from not actually contributing to this discussion/thread, what do you gain from repeating something that’s been said several times all season?

It’s a known fact that the Raptors fan base is the largest in RGM so it really shouldn’t be surprising that the thread has more Raptors fans posting in it

If it were mostly "hey look at this great thing Scottie did" it would be a little less thread-destroying than just watching fans of one team endlessly shifting their crosshairs toward whomever they see as the biggest current threat to their guy.

And yeah, it has made me check in on this thread far more rarely, so I don't follow how many times it has been pointed out across thousands of posts in 6 threads.