2024-25 NBA MVP Discussion Thread (Pt. 2)

[MMyhre]

I get it. Nerd stats have a place, but so do raw stats. SGA is not having a legendary run. Jokic is. The end of that comparison.

It's the team record, and that's it. Let's not pretend the two are on equal footing production wise.

That’s false. Both players are on a legendary run. SGA is putting up two way guard numbers and efficiency not matched since prime Jordan. That includes Kobe/Wade/Harden not doing it.

He is like a less athletic Wade, with the added skillset of Kobe, foul drawing/trickiness of Harden and better ball security than all of them. I didnt think he could be this good, but he is very entertaining to watch.

[MoneyTalks41890]

Alright sounds like OKC is too good for SGA to get MVP, so give Sam EOTY and Mark COTY.

[guynumber45]

As much as I want Jokic to win MVP again, it's hard to argue against Shai if he wins something like 65+ games while missing Chet for most of the year.

[brackdan70]

SGA is starting to pull away imo.
Still early though.

[kazyv]

I get it. Nerd stats have a place, but so do raw stats. SGA is not having a legendary run. Jokic is. The end of that comparison.

It's the team record, and that's it. Let's not pretend the two are on equal footing production wise.

isn't leading your team to 70 wins as the sole star a legendary run? how many players have done that, ever?

SGA likely has the best supporting cast in the league. Much, much better than the Nuggets supporting cast. Like, isn't even close. I would probably take his supporting cast over the Celtics' too. And I don't even see how there is an argument against that (Celtics maybe the exception).

i'm sorry but that's just... a ridiculous statement. you're overrating recency bias and defense to some unnatural level. and defense on that level is always a matter of the collective, not individuals, so if you want to hang your hat on that, those defensive results/accolades have to go to shai as well. but most of all, i feel like you don't appretiate just how limited the offensive cast of okc is

vs

[srhcan]

At some point- It feels like it but Jokic just avg 43 and 13.5 and 9.5 over the weekend against Wemby.

But damn 15 in a row? And people were saying SGA wasn’t as as the other top 7 guys because Chet and he team was too good- but at some point SGA and Tatum ARE the reason why their teams are so good and thus they are better guys with slightly better numbers -

I’m not team SGA yet but I’m squarely in team SGA is at worse the 3rd best player on earth - mvp or not- everyone healthy or not… sga is proving to the be the best LEADER in the NBA -

Don't put Tatum in the same sentence as SGA like that.

Why not - Tatum avg 28, 9 and 6 shooting 46,37 and 80%... those numbers are as good or better than anyone not named Jokic or Giannis and he has a RING ...plus his team is winning right now. Tatum is a great player on both ends, good teammate and best player on a championship team. I don’t like his Kobe riding but other than that he as good or better than anyone else In the top 7 that don’t have a ring...and he has that ring...objectively he is great regardless of how any feels

Jokic, Giannis and SGA are in a different tier than Tatum.

[srhcan]

I get it. Nerd stats have a place, but so do raw stats. SGA is not having a legendary run. Jokic is. The end of that comparison.

It's the team record, and that's it. Let's not pretend the two are on equal footing production wise.

Seeing a Jokic fan disavow “nerd stats” is genuinely incredible. It’s like a Bill Russell fan saying rings don’t matter.

Lot of Jokic fans are flip-flop. They will take a u-turn from a previous position they held, only to support their current argument

[TheProfessor]

Jokic has the raws stats, advanced stats are close but are slightly in favor of SGA. Better record SGA, but SGA has a better team.
I
I think SGA is in the lead, But if Jokic can either get Denver to a top 2 seed in the West OR a TOP 5 record in the league. He should win it. Very simple.

[MoneyTalks41890]

Do we think MVP is actually offensive player of the year by another name? I'm asking because NBA doesn't have one of those, but does have a DPOY. And MVPs are most often discussed and compared with respect to their offensive accomplishments.

[_NoMas]

Jokic has the raws stats, advanced stats are close but are slightly in favor of SGA. Better record SGA, but SGA has a better team.
I
I think SGA is in the lead, But if Jokic can either get Denver to a top 2 seed in the West OR a TOP 5 record in the league. He should win it. Very simple.

It’s strange that seeding and not actual record plays such an important role. If Denver ends up the 2 seed but 15 games back from OKC, it should be SGA no question. Hypothetically, why would we value a 50 win 2 seed whose 15 games back from the one seed more than say, a 55 win 4 seed whose 5 games back from the one seed?

[Special_Puppy]

FWIW advanced stats comparison SGA vs Jokic

Jokic leads in
-DPM
-New EPM
-BPM
-VORP
-XRAPM
-3 Year RAPM

SGA Leads in
-Old EPM
-EPM WAR
-LEBRON
-LEBRON WAR

[Jaqua92]

The issue for SGA that will always make people lean Jokic is that Jokic has one of the worst casts in the NBA. SGA is carrying but OKC is still + with him off the floor.

Denver isn't just negative without Jokic, they're flat out dead.

The advanced numbers are close enough, to the point that Jokic will likely lead in most of them by the end of the year when OKC loses some games, and Jokic's box metrics are so absurd, AND he's clearly the best on the planet, that it's hard to ignore all of that.

Simply put, if Jokic had another all star teammate, they'd be winning more games and up in the standings. Replace Jokic with SGA, or anyone for that matter and is Denver 2 games out of the 2 seed? No.

SGA's level of play, and OKC's winning isn't sustainable, otherwise OKC would go 76-6.

It's not a runaway and Jokic probably will be leading the race at some point.

[Jaqua92]

FWIW advanced stats comparison SGA vs Jokic

Jokic leads in
-DPM
-New EPM
-BPM
-VORP
-XRAPM
-3 Year RAPM
-PER

SGA Leads in
-Old EPM
-EPM WAR
-LEBRON
-LEBRON WAR
- WS
- WS/48

Fixed it. Eventually Jokic will surpass him in WS/48 when OKC starts losing.

[scrabbarista]

Bbref top five shows how much of a two-man race this is:

Jokic: 47%
SGA: 37.7%
Tatum: 4%
Towns: 4%
Antetokounmpo: 2.2%

[MaliBrah]

FWIW advanced stats comparison SGA vs Jokic

Jokic leads in
-DPM
-New EPM
-BPM
-VORP
-XRAPM
-3 Year RAPM

SGA Leads in
-Old EPM
-EPM WAR
-LEBRON
-LEBRON WAR

Fun fact they tweaked EPM because Jokic wasn't leading it last year and Shai and Embiid were. The Jokic Industrial Complex never fails to keep working

[TheProfessor]

Jokic has the raws stats, advanced stats are close but are slightly in favor of SGA. Better record SGA, but SGA has a better team.
I
I think SGA is in the lead, But if Jokic can either get Denver to a top 2 seed in the West OR a TOP 5 record in the league. He should win it. Very simple.

It’s strange that seeding and not actual record plays such an important role. If Denver ends up the 2 seed but 15 games back from OKC, it should be SGA no question. Hypothetically, why would we value a 50 win 2 seed whose 15 games back from the one seed more than say, a 55 win 4 seed whose 5 games back from the one seed?

Because the MVP isn't the best player on the best team award, it is usually the best player on a contending team award. Before Westbrook, the MVP award was usually awarded to the best player was at least a 2 seed in their conference. MVP and all-star voting is similar in that winning teams get rewarded. Winning isn't what sets up you a part, but is rather a prerequisite to winning. If Jokic is playing better than SGA, while getting a top 2 seed he would fulfill the criteria.

[Doctor MJ]

Do we think MVP is actually offensive player of the year by another name? I'm asking because NBA doesn't have one of those, but does have a DPOY. And MVPs are most often discussed and compared with respect to their offensive accomplishments.

Speaking as the guy who started the RPOY awards on the PC board which features a separate OPOY award, no, to me defense is certainly part of the MVP/POY conversation.

Further, clearly Bill Russell won those MVPs largely with defense, so historical precedent for factoring in defense is there.

No doubt though that for modern voters offense looms larger than defense, and they aren't entirely in the wrong for thinking like this given that it's now easier to impact the game with offense than defense, whereas this wasn't the case for at least the first couple decades of the NBA.

[MoneyTalks41890]

FWIW advanced stats comparison SGA vs Jokic

Jokic leads in
-DPM
-New EPM
-BPM
-VORP
-XRAPM
-3 Year RAPM

SGA Leads in
-Old EPM
-EPM WAR
-LEBRON
-LEBRON WAR

Guess I’m not familiar with old and new EPM.

Jokic leads expected, SGA leads actual here:

https://www.dunksandthrees.com/epm/actual

[RRR3]

Saying SGA has a better supporting cast than Tatum is one of the most absurd things I’ve ever seen

[Special_Puppy]

FWIW advanced stats comparison SGA vs Jokic

Jokic leads in
-DPM
-New EPM
-BPM
-VORP
-XRAPM
-3 Year RAPM

SGA Leads in
-Old EPM
-EPM WAR
-LEBRON
-LEBRON WAR

Guess I’m not familiar with old and new EPM.

Jokic leads expected, SGA leads actual here:

https://www.dunksandthrees.com/epm/actual

New EPM=Expected (Takes into account information from prior seasons. Tries to be Predictive)
Old EPM=Actual (Only takes into account information from the current season)