MVP Discussion [19/20] [part II] - voting opened

[scrabbarista]

Not cool tbh

also not relevant to valu(abl)e, which is what the V in MVP stands for

[scrabbarista]

I know the official votes are already in, but here are my penultimate rankings:

[The reason these are so different than last week's is because I had accidentally prorated some players' scores to 82 games (notably, Antetokounmpo and Tatum) while leaving some others' as raw scores. In fact, I think I may have accidentally done this before the bubble, too. The ranking below includes only raw scores with no prorating.]

1. Antetokounmpo - 20.6
2. Harden - 19.0

3. James - 17.8
4. Leonard - 16.5
5. Gobert - 15.3
6. Lillard - 15.2
7. Jokic - 15.2
8. Paul - 14.5
9. Davis - 14.3
10. Middleton - 13.6
11. Doncic - 13.5
12. Tatum - 13.4

It looks like I overrated Antetokounmpo's season in recent comments I made on realgm. I said it was arguably one of the five best MVP seasons of the last twenty years and deserved to be unanimous. I was looking at a prorated score, while comparing it to raw scores for Harden and James. As it turns out, his season is actually somewhat close to theirs. Still the clear MVP, but not overwhelmingly so. I was also looking at that prorated score and thinking it was a raw, shortened season, then prorating it in my head to compare it to other MVP seasons of the past. In fact, it was already prorated. This fact makes his season look even less impressive.

It's clear from recent seasons that MVP's are playing fewer and fewer minutes than ever before. In addition, offensive efficiency is at an all-time high, leading to extreme box score totals on a nightly basis. Cross-era comparisons are always challenging. I may revise my formula (again) at the end of this season, hopefully to keep from penalizing players of the current era too much for the paltry minutes totals they're playing. It's not uncommon in recent years for an MVP to play 500-600 minutes fewer than the league leader. At the "normal" rate of 36 minutes per game, that amounts to a full 15 games. This kind of thing almost never happened in the 80's, 90's, and 00's, when MVP's usually played about 3,000 minutes. Then, it was a rare exception, now it's the norm. Antetokounmpo is going to have the lowest or second-lowest total minutes ever for an MVP, at around 1,950 minutes, albeit in a season of only about 73 games. I think the trend to low-load MVP's may have started with Stephen Curry, who won the award in 2015 while playing almost 400 minutes fewer than James Harden, and then won unanimously the next season with what was then a very low minutes total for an MVP: 2,700. Just five seasons later, that number looks high! Harden's MVP season in 2018 was by far his lowest minute total as a Rocket, not counting this shortened season: 2,551. Then last season, Antetokounmpo brought things even lower: 2,358. Then the success of Leonard's Raptors in the postseason after his infamous load managing surely accelerated the trend.This season, even prorating to 82 games, Antetokounmpo's total minutes would still be almost the lowest ever for an MVP: 2,153. We've nearly reached the point where the "best" players are taking the court a mere 2/3's as often as they did just ten years ago, never mind in the days of Bird, Magic, Michael, and Young Kobe. One almost wonders how long before we reach 1/2. As long as players continue to be rewarded (even if indirectly) for resting instead of playing, we can be sure the trend will continue indefinitely. In any case, we can hopefully agree on one thing: Giannis Antetokounmpo deserves the MVP Award for the 2019-2020 season.

I'll come back next week with a fancier looking chart with more names on it.

[Yuri36]

For once, i feel the poll results are right about the order in the first 4 places even though i feel both Luka and JH13 should be closer to LBJ and Giannis than what the polls results are showing.

[Packbuckman]

I know the official votes are already in, but here are my penultimate rankings:

[The reason these are so different than last week's is because I had accidentally prorated some players' scores to 82 games (notably, Antetokounmpo and Tatum) while leaving some others' as raw scores. In fact, I think I may have accidentally done this before the bubble, too. The ranking below includes only raw scores with no prorating.]

1. Antetokounmpo - 20.6
2. Harden - 19.0

3. James - 17.8
4. Leonard - 16.5
5. Gobert - 15.3
6. Lillard - 15.2
7. Jokic - 15.2
8. Paul - 14.5
9. Davis - 14.3
10. Middleton - 13.6
11. Doncic - 13.5
12. Tatum - 13.4

It looks like I overrated Antetokounmpo's season in recent comments I made on realgm. I said it was arguably one of the five best MVP seasons of the last twenty years and deserved to be unanimous. I was looking at a prorated score, while comparing it to raw scores for Harden and James. As it turns out, his season is actually somewhat close to theirs. Still the clear MVP, but not overwhelmingly so. I was also looking at that prorated score and thinking it was a raw, shortened season, then prorating it in my head to compare it to other MVP seasons of the past. In fact, it was already prorated. This fact makes his season look even less impressive.

It's clear from recent seasons that MVP's are playing fewer and fewer minutes than ever before. In addition, offensive efficiency is at an all-time high, leading to extreme box score totals on a nightly basis. Cross-era comparisons are always challenging. I may revise my formula (again) at the end of this season, hopefully to keep from penalizing players of the current era too much for the paltry minutes totals they're playing. It's not uncommon in recent years for an MVP to play 500-600 minutes fewer than the league leader. At the "normal" rate of 36 minutes per game, that amounts to a full 15 games. This kind of thing almost never happened in the 80's, 90's, and 00's, when MVP's usually played about 3,000 minutes. Then, it was a rare exception, now it's the norm. Antetokounmpo is going to have the lowest or second-lowest total minutes ever for an MVP, at around 1,950 minutes, albeit in a season of only about 73 games. I think the trend to low-load MVP's may have started with Stephen Curry, who won the award in 2015 while playing almost 400 minutes fewer than James Harden, and then won unanimously the next season with what was then a very low minutes total for an MVP: 2,700. Just five seasons later, that number looks high! Harden's MVP season in 2018 was by far his lowest minute total as a Rocket, not counting this shortened season: 2,551. Then last season, Antetokounmpo brought things even lower: 2,358. Then the success of Leonard's Raptors in the postseason after his infamous load managing surely accelerated the trend.This season, even prorating to 82 games, Antetokounmpo's total minutes would still be almost the lowest ever for an MVP: 2,153. We've nearly reached the point where the "best" players are taking the court a mere 2/3's as often as they did just ten years ago, never mind in the days of Bird, Magic, Michael, and Young Kobe. One almost wonders how long before we reach 1/2. As long as players continue to be rewarded (even if indirectly) for resting instead of playing, we can be sure the trend will continue indefinitely. In any case, we can hopefully agree on one thing: Giannis Antetokounmpo deserves the MVP Award for the 2019-2020 season.

I'll come back next week with a fancier looking chart with more names on it.

I am just not penalizing Giannis because the coach is playing him less minutes. I have questioned Buds sub pattern with him. Giannis should be playing more and for that matter Middleton too. Once these playoffs start I am hoping Bud plays both 38 minutes a game or more.

[scrabbarista]

I know the official votes are already in, but here are my penultimate rankings:

[The reason these are so different than last week's is because I had accidentally prorated some players' scores to 82 games (notably, Antetokounmpo and Tatum) while leaving some others' as raw scores. In fact, I think I may have accidentally done this before the bubble, too. The ranking below includes only raw scores with no prorating.]

1. Antetokounmpo - 20.6
2. Harden - 19.0

3. James - 17.8
4. Leonard - 16.5
5. Gobert - 15.3
6. Lillard - 15.2
7. Jokic - 15.2
8. Paul - 14.5
9. Davis - 14.3
10. Middleton - 13.6
11. Doncic - 13.5
12. Tatum - 13.4

It looks like I overrated Antetokounmpo's season in recent comments I made on realgm. I said it was arguably one of the five best MVP seasons of the last twenty years and deserved to be unanimous. I was looking at a prorated score, while comparing it to raw scores for Harden and James. As it turns out, his season is actually somewhat close to theirs. Still the clear MVP, but not overwhelmingly so. I was also looking at that prorated score and thinking it was a raw, shortened season, then prorating it in my head to compare it to other MVP seasons of the past. In fact, it was already prorated. This fact makes his season look even less impressive.

It's clear from recent seasons that MVP's are playing fewer and fewer minutes than ever before. In addition, offensive efficiency is at an all-time high, leading to extreme box score totals on a nightly basis. Cross-era comparisons are always challenging. I may revise my formula (again) at the end of this season, hopefully to keep from penalizing players of the current era too much for the paltry minutes totals they're playing. It's not uncommon in recent years for an MVP to play 500-600 minutes fewer than the league leader. At the "normal" rate of 36 minutes per game, that amounts to a full 15 games. This kind of thing almost never happened in the 80's, 90's, and 00's, when MVP's usually played about 3,000 minutes. Then, it was a rare exception, now it's the norm. Antetokounmpo is going to have the lowest or second-lowest total minutes ever for an MVP, at around 1,950 minutes, albeit in a season of only about 73 games. I think the trend to low-load MVP's may have started with Stephen Curry, who won the award in 2015 while playing almost 400 minutes fewer than James Harden, and then won unanimously the next season with what was then a very low minutes total for an MVP: 2,700. Just five seasons later, that number looks high! Harden's MVP season in 2018 was by far his lowest minute total as a Rocket, not counting this shortened season: 2,551. Then last season, Antetokounmpo brought things even lower: 2,358. Then the success of Leonard's Raptors in the postseason after his infamous load managing surely accelerated the trend.This season, even prorating to 82 games, Antetokounmpo's total minutes would still be almost the lowest ever for an MVP: 2,153. We've nearly reached the point where the "best" players are taking the court a mere 2/3's as often as they did just ten years ago, never mind in the days of Bird, Magic, Michael, and Young Kobe. One almost wonders how long before we reach 1/2. As long as players continue to be rewarded (even if indirectly) for resting instead of playing, we can be sure the trend will continue indefinitely. In any case, we can hopefully agree on one thing: Giannis Antetokounmpo deserves the MVP Award for the 2019-2020 season.

I'll come back next week with a fancier looking chart with more names on it.

I am just not penalizing Giannis because the coach is playing him less minutes. I have questioned Buds sub pattern with him. Giannis should be playing more and for that matter Middleton too. Once these playoffs start I am hoping Bud plays both 38 minutes a game or more.

I feel you on hoping they play a heavy load. Makes sense.

You can do what you want. I take the approach of setting a statistical standard first, then applying it at all times in all cases. [Within reason, of course. For example, I'm not going to ignore all blocks in NBA history simply because they weren't recorded before a certain season.] This approach is for rating past performance; for projecting forward, such an approach (i.e., not treating each case as unique) would be incredibly shortsighted. Awards, however, are by their nature always dependent exclusively on past performance - or should be. I take this approach (a blanket statistical formula) because virtually all of us are 99.999% likely to fall onto some slippery slope of bias, and the ways in which to be biased are - I don't think I'm exaggerating - pretty close to infinite. This is because the number of unverifiable what-ifs we can make up are infinite. (For example, "If Bud played Giannis more, his numbers would be better." Sounds reasonable, but it basically amounts to just making something up. For all we know, if Bud played Giannis more, Giannis would get injured, or play worse, or his teammates would play worse, or an infinite other number of possiblities could happen, all of which are fun to imagine, but impossible to test, because the past is already complete. Thus, I choose none of them, including whatever one is supposedly the most reasonable.) So, to be more specific about my formula, if a good player playing good minutes is good, then a good player playing more good minutes is more good. Pretty simple logic, really. Obviously, the question arises, "How good?" (and, "How many more?"), but the formula answers that, too. I get that most people don't use a formula, though. All I can ask of those people is that they be somewhat aware of and willing to admit the degree to which they're being subjective. That's not to say my approach is totally objective, either. I believe that would be impossible. I just try to get as close as I can, and I do that by using a formula and applying it to everyone, regardless of the specifics of their situation. Specifics = an opportunity to be biased, and 99.999% of us are taking that opportunity every time. So, the reason I use a formula is to eliminate as many of those opportunities as I can.

Anyway, congrats on Antetokounmpo's MVP season. He definitely deserves it. Even if he's just 7 feet tall and just runs and dunks and has no skill.

[DutchManDanFan]

The game is about winning games. If the Bucks win enough games for the top seed, with Giannis only playing 30 mpg, then that's a good thing. You can say 2 things about this:
1. He is so good, he doesnt need to play more minutes to win games.
2. He doesn't need to play more minutes, because all other Bucks are so good.
For Bucks fans it's clear 1 is much more true than 2. When the Bucks had a big lead in the 3rd and Giannis went out, sometimes he needed to get back in to secure the win. When games were close he played more minutes. With the Bucks leading the league with a margin a loss didn't matter much. So good health was always priority no 1.

For this award: the value of Giannis for the Bucks is immeasurable. He leads his team to the best record. What more can he do? He can not do more to become more valuable. So he is the most valuable player of the league in this regular season. No formula is needed for this.

Is he the best player of the league? I don't think so. He is close but he can and must get better to become the best player and win a championship. He is only 25 and eager to get there. He has to learn what to do if he's surrounded by 3 defenders and he can shoot 3's and FT's but he needs to be more confident to make them. I think he's hard to stop after he wins his first title.

In the mean time Khris developed into a true all star. And with Bledsoe, BroLo, Wes Matthews and George Hill, Giannis is surrounded with experienced players who always were above average starters in the league. But the Bucks need other players (Marvin Williams, DDV, Pat C.) to step up as well.
Last year it went wrong in game 3 against Toronto with Mirotic, Khris and Bledsoe combining for 9-43 and 3-19 from 3 in a game that went to double OT. Bucks only made 67% FT's (Giannis 2-7, Khris 2-4 and Brogdon 1-2). With close to normal percentages this game (and the series) would have been won. Khris and Bled were well defended, but for Mirotic you expect better than 1-7 on wide open 3's, with all tall defenders on Giannis.
This year the competition is better but Giannis and the Bucks are better as well. Giannis' FT-shooting still is a concern though.

[scrabbarista]

Not here to engage debate at this moment, but how crazy is it that Antetokounmpo was playing point guard like two seasons ago! What a crazy talent. I think he's one of the five most naturally gifted basketball players that I've seen, with Dream, MJ, Shaq, and LeBron. Even though he's 25 or whatever, it feels like he could still become almost anything as a player. Congrats to him and his fans on his second Award.

[AussieBuck]

Not here to engage debate at this moment, but how crazy is it that Antetokounmpo was playing point guard like two seasons ago! What a crazy talent. I think he's one of the five most naturally gifted basketball players that I've seen, with Dream, MJ, Shaq, and LeBron. Even though he's 25 or whatever, it feels like he could still become almost anything as a player. Congrats to him and his fans on his second Award.

He'll be playing PG again if/when Bledsoe does his playoff thing.

[scrabbarista]

Thought it might be a good time to revisit this post of mine from earlier in the season. Here is the update with the season now ended.

Win Shares:
Harden 1st
James 7th

WS/48:
Harden 2nd
James 13th

VORP:
Harden 1st
James 3rd

BPM:
Harden 2nd
James 5th

PER:
Harden 2nd
James 8th

RAPTOR:
Harden 1st
James 4th

RAPTOR WAR:
Harden 1st
James 5th

RPM WINS:
Harden 3rd
James 1st

RPM:
Harden 3rd
James 2nd

PIE:
Harden 6th
James 2nd

On-Off:
Harden +9.1
James +9.9

[scrabbarista]

My final rankings for 2019-2020.

There wasn't much movement in the last week, other than from Lillard, who made a furious charge into the Top Five. Keep in mind that this formula was developed to give me a good Top Five MVP "ballot." That was its sole purpose when I created it, and I hope most [aside from those with strong biases] will agree it's done a pretty good job of that this season. It's not meant to identify the best players in the league, nor is it meant to maintain the accuracy of its rankings as it descends down the list. I've only included the extra names for the sake of anyone's curiosity. I'm pretty sure these are the only players with a 10.0 or higher.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. 20.9 Antetokounmpo, MIL
2. 19.6 Harden, HOU
3. 17.6 James, LAL
4. 16.7 Leonard, LAC
5. 16.5 Lillard, POR

6. 15.4 Gobert, UTA
7. 15.4 Jokic, DEN
8. 14.9 Davis, LAL
9. 14.3 Paul, OKC
10. 13.7 Tatum, BOS

11. 13.6 Doncic, DAL
12. 13.6 Butler, MIA
13. 13.2 Middleton, MIL
14. 12.7 Adebayo, MIA
15. 11.7 Whiteside, POR

16. 11.1 Lopez, MIL
17. 10.9 Lowry, TOR
18. 10.8 Sabonis, IND
19. 10.6 Siakam, TOR
20. 10.4 Booker, PHO

21. 10.4 Bledsoe, MIL
22. 10.0 Embiid, PHI

[zimpy27]

Now Giannis one DPOY it's possible, what does this mean for the battle between Giannis and James for MVP?

[bb22]

When do they announce MVP?

[DB23]

Sometimes I wonder what is offensive and what is defensive foul watching Antetokounmpo playing in NBA. He does so many offensive fouls and goes to the line. The defender has no chance to guard him if he gets pushed with arms and elbows and gets a defensive foul.
Traveling that are not called is also an issue. But this happens a lot in NBA for specific players.
Referees treat him good for sure.

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Nonsense,if giannis had the same officiating
like Lowry he whould shot 20 ft every games

If it’s so egregious, I would have expected better examples. The first one is a harden flop. Certainly don’t think it was an offensive foul.

Like LeBron and shaq, he’s actually fouled a lot more than gets called. Are there some really bad calls occasionally? Sure. Does he travel sometimes? Welcome to the nba.

Hardens whistle is way worse.