NBA MVP Discussion Thread 2023-24 (Part 4: MVP Thread's Revenge)

[Bob8]

Giannis not playing against Boston now. This really is a 2 man race with Luka being a very long shot away.

He may still end up third if he has some big games down the stretch and the Bucks clinch the #2 seed.

Does it even matter who finishes second or third?

[Special_Puppy]

Giannis not playing against Boston now. This really is a 2 man race with Luka being a very long shot away.

He may still end up third if he has some big games down the stretch and the Bucks clinch the #2 seed.

If the Bucks win 52 games I could see him winning it yeah

[Infinite Llamas]

Giannis not playing against Boston now. This really is a 2 man race with Luka being a very long shot away.

He may still end up third if he has some big games down the stretch and the Bucks clinch the #2 seed.

If the Bucks win 52 games I could see him winning it yeah

I mean, last year the Bucks won 58 games and they added a top-75 player this year. 52 seems like a bit of a letdown for a contender if we are being honest.

Individual wins this year:
Shai 48
Jokic 47
Giannis 41
Luka 37

[Exp0sed]

He may still end up third if he has some big games down the stretch and the Bucks clinch the #2 seed.

If the Bucks win 52 games I could see him winning it yeah

I mean, last year the Bucks won 58 games and they added a top-75 player this year. 52 seems like a bit of a letdown for a contender if we are being honest.

Individual wins this year:
Shai 48
Jokic 47
Giannis 41
Luka 37

Giannis is not winning MVP
he's had a great season and everyone knows how good he is, he will def finish in the top 5 and probably even 3rd but he's not winning it, even if the Bucks win 52 or whatever. that ship has sailed and the GP discrepancy between him and the top two is significant as well

[Wolfgang630]

Giannis wasn’t going to win mvp the day Lillard went there. Media had much higher expectations for their team + he got a perennial all star

[AleksandarN]

Jokic 16 pts 9 reb 10 ast at the half

[HotRocks34]

Denver beats New York
Dallas beats Utah

Jokic's numbers surge after his 30 point triple double.

[Deshaun Taden]

If Jokic won last season it would have been interesting to see if voter fatigue and the historical aspect would keep him from getting it this year. I'd probably wager Tatum gets it if Jokic had won last season to have 3x in a row.

That Embiid MVP last year has all but locked it up for Jokic this season. The Tatum argument is tenuous and nobody really seems to be advancing it, but nobody else really has any argument whatsoever over Joker. Heck next year too might not be such a stretch, it would be kind of funny if Embiid winning one results in 2x more Joker MVPs in the long run.

[Mavrelous]

Yeah, I think it's Jokic's award to lose at this point, easiest schedule in the west remaining, the team is dominant with him on the floor, and sucks with him off it.

[CharityStripe34]

Giannis not playing against Boston now. This really is a 2 man race with Luka being a very long shot away.

He may still end up third if he has some big games down the stretch and the Bucks clinch the #2 seed.

If the Bucks win 52 games I could see him winning it yeah

He's not winning the MVP. They'll try to lock up the #2 seed and possibly give him a couple more load-management games leading into the playoffs. He'll probably finish either 3rd or 4th if I had to guess.

[Special_Puppy]

Updated MVP Odds according to betting markets with Vig Removed
Jokic 75%
SGA 14%
Luka 8%
Giannis 2%
Tatum 2%
Ant 0.7%

[CD_41]

At this point Denver would have to lose a lot of games for SGA to have a shot at MVP. Not likely with their remaining strength of schedule. If the Mavs reach the 4th seed (which is not likely either), Luka should be in the conversation.

That being said, the odds have it right: This thing is 75% decided in the favor of Jokic.

[B-easy]

... If the Mavs reach the 4th seed (which is not likely either), Luka should be in the conversation...

Luka played 60 games to SGA and Jokic's 67. Even if he gets 4th seed it won't matter, he's too far behind. But you never know with the voters, last season Jokic had a much better record than Embiid but they only looked at team W-L. They might make a similar mistake this season.

[Chokic]

Sixers 38-31 record since embiid inijury. About to be a play in team soon and ppl still question embiid is not the mvp?

[CD_41]

... If the Mavs reach the 4th seed (which is not likely either), Luka should be in the conversation...

Luka played 60 games to SGA and Jokic's 67. Even if he gets 4th seed it won't matter, he's too far behind. But you never know with the voters, last season Jokic had a much better record than Embiid but they only looked at team W-L. They might make a similar mistake this season.

It is close, but I think you're right.
Realistically he won't win it even with the 4th seed. But it will lead to long discussion about his MVP-worthyness in this thread, haha.

[Doctor MJ]

If the Mavs win 48 games and Luka go on a tear in the final stretch of the season, I think he will win it regardless of any advance stats against him. Kyrie missed 33% of the season and I'm not even sure who's the 3rd best player of the Mavs. This is the year Luka will win his first MVP.

Read on Twitter

On a side note, MVP thread isn't as intense when Embiid leading the MVP race, the moment he went down with injury and got disqualified, this thread has been calm except when some people are debating how important +/- is.


2nd MVP Thread
12/09/2023 to 01/08/2024(30 days)

3rd MVP Thread
01/08/2024 to 02/05/2024(28 days)

4th MVP Thread
02/05/2024 to 03/20/2024(ongoing for 44 days)

It's funny to me that you think that +/- is the main thing driving discussion given that so much of the focus of conversation has been about the guy you bring up - Luka - has probably been involved in more conversation than at least one of the two main candidates - Jokic & Shai.

Whenever a fringe candidate dominates an MVP thread, I'd say that's the story of the thread.

But you're right, there was more intensity when both Embiid & Luka supporters were involved. I'd say that they generally have the most passionate fanbases right now with the possible exception of the guy whose been the most valuable player of the past few seasons.

[Woodsanity]

Jokic has better stats, record and played way more games than Luka. Luka has zero case over Jokic atm.

Just an interesting stat I realized too:

Nikola Jokić has played the most regular season games out of all players since the start of 2015-16 season, his rookie year

[Exp0sed]

Luka has been phenomenal, even with that 6/27 game

he's doing special things every night, he's not the MVP, even if they do manage to get to 5th or even 4th which is kinda doable now with Ingram out, just because he played less games with less wins and Jokic (and SGA) have been utterly consistent but there's a sense he's gonna do something special in the playoffs. that has nothing to do with the MVP race obviously but I trust Luka's passing, creating and shotmaking coupled with Kyrie's creation and shotmaking alot more than I trust some other team's offenses and defense will amp up with playoff effort

Jokic has been so effective in the playoffs because his passing is just too good and passing is probably the most consistent and reliable skill in basketball. Luka has that in spades, the things he's doing on a basketball court on a nightly basis are phenomenal

I think if he played as many games as SGA and Jokic this would be much more of a conversation but as it stands, yes. he'll finish 3rd and with a chip on his shoulder come April and May, gonna be fun

[Mavrelous]

Sixers 38-31 record since embiid inijury. About to be a play in team soon and ppl still question embiid is not the mvp?

Embiid was the consensus pick for MVP in RGM MVP discussion when he was eligible, but this argument is disingenuous.
1. Maxey went down after Embiid went down, and the team played 9 games w/o both players, in the Maxey-less games PHI went 1-8.
2. Embiid ducks tough games, plain and simple, the ducking criticism didn't come from vacuum, of the games Embiid missed before going down:
Wolves on the road on 2nd night of a back to back.
Pelican on the road
Celtics on the road
Heat on the road
Nuggets on the road

If you miss games that are likely losses, you will have better record as a player than your team.

[Mavrelous]

Jokic has better stats, record and played way more games than Luka. Luka has zero case over Jokic atm.

Just an interesting stat I realized too:

Nikola Jokić has played the most regular season games out of all players since the start of 2015-16 season, his rookie year

With the way Jokic is playing and producing, in order to compete with him for MVP, you need:
1. To be in his vicinity advanced stats wise
2. Have a better record to compensate.
And it would still be arguable.

Embiid last year did that, SGA this year is doing that, Luka doesn't have the record argument.