Jazzfan1971's Preseason Commentary

[Trader_Joe]

Well, you look at some of the teams in the West.

OKC I think you have to put first (spoiler alert) until you can show otherwise.
Clippers look much improved. I think they easily passed the Spurs.
Memphis really looks to have solidified their bench by my eye.
Houston took a HUGE leap forward adding DH and not losing any assets in the process. I think they've got a little work to do in rounding out the roster, but, I think that'll happen.

I guess folks would most disagree with Memphis. But, I see them topping the Spurs this season. They were only 2 wins back of the Spurs last season, so I don't see it as a major shock to think that they could end up edging out the Spurs.

I don't think OKC has to be first.

They regressed or at best stayed the same, while everyone else (other than Denver) made moves to get better.

They let Martin walk, they didn't use their MLE, RW is coming off surgery and has a game based upon athleticism. Perkins also continues to suck and seemingly is getting worse. Their main additions were D.Fisher, R.Gomes, S.Adams (who is very raw) and their other rookie who they paid the least amount they could (80% of the salary scale vs. the 120% most offer)

Durant sounded sarcastic about their off-season when he said "I love it", and I can't imagine he was pleased last year either when they traded Harden.

They will be right up there and a threat in the playoffs, but I would be surprised if they won 60 games again in the West.

As for the playoffs, it seems a big team could be their Achilles. They lost to Memphis 4-1 and while RW was out, they also lost the season series to Memphis 2-1, with the only loss being when Memphis was missing several players post trade.

[jazzfan1971]

Well, who would you put first in the West then?

[JasonStern]

a 57 win team with no all-stars loses two starters, a hall-of-fame coach known for overachieving during the regular season, and, effectively, a third starter due to injury for the beginning of the season. knowing this, you predict only 7 less wins? agree to disagree on that one, I suppose.

[jazzfan1971]

How many more additional losses than 7 would you predict?

[vincecarter4pres]

Nuggets are a tough team to predict. Even if mainly healthy outside Gallo I still see their range wide open this year, they could go anywhere from 35 to 50 wins. I find it very hard to predict them, but gun to head for a 3 game range? I'd have to say 39 to 42 wins.

[Jazzfan12]

The Spurs won 58 games last year even with their top 4 players (Duncan, Parker, Kawhi, Manu) missing 66 games. They were great even with tons of injuries last year, I don't see a regression coming even if Duncan declines.

[ItsDaBrush]

The Spurs will have tons of injuries this year too just like they've had for the last 5 years. Their top players are fragile, they will miss games

[Jazzfan12]

The Spurs will have tons of injuries this year too just like they've had for the last 5 years. Their top players are fragile, they will miss games

Last year was the third year ever that Duncan missed more than 8 games and the first time he missed more than 8 games in a season in 8 years. Parker isn't really injury-prone either and I'm not sure I'd call Leonard injury-prone either.

[Nondescript]

I'm dying to see the rest of this.

[corona]

a 57 win team with no all-stars loses two starters, a hall-of-fame coach known for overachieving during the regular season, and, effectively, a third starter due to injury for the beginning of the season. knowing this, you predict only 7 less wins? agree to disagree on that one, I suppose.

one of the starters you're referring to was a bench player pre-nuggets, and will be a bench player post-nuggets, only played 22mpg in the regular season and under 17 in the playoffs. they're replacing him with another 7 foot center (mozgov) who's perfectly capable of giving the same kind of production in those limited minutes, albeit not as a supposed starter because karl's no longer coaching to play his 'trust' guys.

wilson chandler was out longer last year than gallinari will be this year.

and it's not like brian shaw's a new coach they grabbed off some mid-level college team hoping he'll make a good transition to the nba. he has the experience, he has the respect of the players, he has the rings, he knows how everything's structured in the nba....its just a matter of being the voice instead of one of the voices. i don't worry a lot that he'll turn out to be a bad coach....i'm not sure if anyone does.

so its really just coming down to the difference between losing iguodala & brewer, and essentially replacing them with three superb shooters (foye, fournier, robinson) and an extra 10/7 PF.

i'd also point out that pre-iguodala when they still had afflalo & harrington they were on a 47 win pace in the lockout season which was played almost entirely without wilson chandler (china) & 1/3 without gallinari. it's not like iggy was some spectacular player that came in and saved the franchise for a year....in fact he statistically had a worse year in every category but assists as compared to his career averages. i understand he's a difference maker defensively, but again....can that not be made up for in the transition from a coach who teaches leak-outs, reckless trapping & switching, and undervalues defensive rebounding to one who's been tutored by championship level coaches & defensive assistants his whole playing & coaching career.

another way to look at it....if the nuggets had traded afflalo & harrington for foye, robinson, hickson & wilson chandler instead of for iguodala....and we predict another 2 years improvement from lawson, faried & mcgee with the addition of an up-and-comer like fournier, would people still be expecting them to crash and burn out of the playoffs?

[mcmurphy]

another way to look at it....if the nuggets had traded afflalo & harrington for foye, robinson, hickson & wilson chandler instead of for iguodala....and we predict another 2 years improvement from lawson, faried & mcgee with the addition of an up-and-comer like fournier, would people still be expecting them to crash and burn out of the playoffs?

good analysis

[GoldenGoose]

The difference is that it seems that Denver has made a lateral move, or maybe gotten slightly worse whereas many teams in the Western Conference have improved fairly significantly.

[jazzfan1971]

i'm having a devil of a time picking my next team on the list. I think the remaining 8 are all contenders.

OKC
Houston
Mempis
Clippers
Indy
Miami
Chicago
BK

I'm guessing I'll put one of Memphis or Houston on the chopping block next, but, I hesitate because it looks like Memphis might sign Mo Williams and I hate putting Houston down too early because I think they will likely make a trade of some sort in a Asik for PF mold.

But, I'll probably go with Memphis. I like their team I just don't know that they have enough shooting. (although if the bring in Williams and give him run at SG like he did in LAC that is largely addressed. But it appears they want him as a backup PG).

Anyway, 8 legit contenders in my estimation. If you were on the list before now you are a longshot to win a title as I see it.

[EvanZ]

so its really just coming down to the difference between losing iguodala & brewer, and essentially replacing them with three superb shooters (foye, fournier, robinson) and an extra 10/7 PF.

When Iggy and Koufos were not on the court, the Nuggets had about a -1 point differential in 1852 possessions. When those two were on the court, Nuggets were +6 in 3134 possessions.

So good luck with that.

[Left*My*Heart]

Trading away Koufos, just to keep the coach from playing him over McGee?

I could see Nuggets not make the playoffs. Karl made that team special and knew how to get the most of out of them. Blowing it up, wasn't the answer.

[HartfordWhalers]

a 57 win team with no all-stars loses two starters, a hall-of-fame coach known for overachieving during the regular season, and, effectively, a third starter due to injury for the beginning of the season. knowing this, you predict only 7 less wins? agree to disagree on that one, I suppose.

one of the starters you're referring to was a bench player pre-nuggets, and will be a bench player post-nuggets, only played 22mpg in the regular season and under 17 in the playoffs. they're replacing him with another 7 foot center (mozgov) who's perfectly capable of giving the same kind of production in those limited minutes, albeit not as a supposed starter because karl's no longer coaching to play his 'trust' guys.

wilson chandler was out longer last year than gallinari will be this year.

and it's not like brian shaw's a new coach they grabbed off some mid-level college team hoping he'll make a good transition to the nba. he has the experience, he has the respect of the players, he has the rings, he knows how everything's structured in the nba....its just a matter of being the voice instead of one of the voices. i don't worry a lot that he'll turn out to be a bad coach....i'm not sure if anyone does.

so its really just coming down to the difference between losing iguodala & brewer, and essentially replacing them with three superb shooters (foye, fournier, robinson) and an extra 10/7 PF.

i'd also point out that pre-iguodala when they still had afflalo & harrington they were on a 47 win pace in the lockout season which was played almost entirely without wilson chandler (china) & 1/3 without gallinari. it's not like iggy was some spectacular player that came in and saved the franchise for a year....in fact he statistically had a worse year in every category but assists as compared to his career averages. i understand he's a difference maker defensively, but again....can that not be made up for in the transition from a coach who teaches leak-outs, reckless trapping & switching, and undervalues defensive rebounding to one who's been tutored by championship level coaches & defensive assistants his whole playing & coaching career.

another way to look at it....if the nuggets had traded afflalo & harrington for foye, robinson, hickson & wilson chandler instead of for iguodala....and we predict another 2 years improvement from lawson, faried & mcgee with the addition of an up-and-comer like fournier, would people still be expecting them to crash and burn out of the playoffs?

2012 Denver: Off 3rd in league, defense 20th... 47 win pace
2013 Denver: Off 5th, defense 11th ... 57 win pace

2014 Denver changes:

Subtracts the two best defenders on the team by DRAPM -- Iguodala (+3.33) and Koufus (+2.40)

Adds Hickson -- has never had a positive on off on any team he has ever been on for even a portion of a season, shows an opponent per of over 20, and allows .94 ppp on post ups etc. (Did somehow get a slightly positive DRAPM last year which is crazy, +.4 and the year before -0.6.) But put simply, is bad on defense.

Adds Nate Robinson -- really large negative DRAPM last two years (-3.12 worst on Chicago and -2.5)

Adds Foye -- really large negative DRAPM last two years (-2.17 second worst on Utah and -2.40)

Increases role of Fournier -- really large negative DRAPM (-2.26 third worst on team, although within .1 of worst)

You can show the same story with just about every defensive stat out there. It is as if every change Denver did was about either proving stats wrong, or decimating its defense. Looking at the colection of players, no one is bad in general, so it is easy to think they continue to perform similarly. But if you look at how the players match up specifically on offense and defense, Denver looks to have a problem even if the new coach and new system incorporates together smoothly. Dropping the team's defense back to 20th if not worse around 23rd or so in the league would easily drop the win percentage back down to closer to 45 then 55.

[jazzfan1971]

I don't know what the numbers say, but, I'd think an extra 15 minutes of McGee could help their defense. I'm not a bit worried about the loss of Koufos to be honest. I think he was quite over-rated by just about everyone. I saw a ton of him in Utah and was never that impressed. I don't think he suddenly became a better player in Denver, he just got the minutes.

The loss of Iggy will hurt defense. That's undeniable. But, then again, you get to add someone in his place and see what they give you. You might end up with better spacing while losing defense. You might get more efficient scoring while losing defense. At any rate there will be some offset for the loss. In the case of Koufos I find that loss to be negligible. Possibly even negative. (negative loss is good, right?) With Iggy it'll be greater. And with Karl, I have no idea. But, unless Shaw is a below average coach I dont' think it'll make a whole lot of difference.

I think Denver will be worse, I did drop them 7 games, which I think is a pretty big hit. So, I'm not trying to paint this as all hearts and roses. I just don't see the drop to 45 some of you are suggesting. (or even lower by some)

[NZB2323]

i'm having a devil of a time picking my next team on the list. I think the remaining 8 are all contenders.

OKC
Houston
Mempis
Clippers
Indy
Miami
Chicago
BK

I'm guessing I'll put one of Memphis or Houston on the chopping block next, but, I hesitate because it looks like Memphis might sign Mo Williams and I hate putting Houston down too early because I think they will likely make a trade of some sort in a Asik for PF mold.

But, I'll probably go with Memphis. I like their team I just don't know that they have enough shooting. (although if the bring in Williams and give him run at SG like he did in LAC that is largely addressed. But it appears they want him as a backup PG).

Anyway, 8 legit contenders in my estimation. If you were on the list before now you are a longshot to win a title as I see it.

If it's just regular season, then look at the benches. Indiana is a great playoff team, but their bench will lose them some games in the regular season.

[vincecarter4pres]

i'm having a devil of a time picking my next team on the list. I think the remaining 8 are all contenders.

OKC
Houston
Memphis
Clippers
Indy
Miami
Chicago
BK

I'm guessing I'll put one of Memphis or Houston on the chopping block next, but, I hesitate because it looks like Memphis might sign Mo Williams and I hate putting Houston down too early because I think they will likely make a trade of some sort in a Asik for PF mold.

But, I'll probably go with Memphis. I like their team I just don't know that they have enough shooting. (although if the bring in Williams and give him run at SG like he did in LAC that is largely addressed. But it appears they want him as a backup PG).

Anyway, 8 legit contenders in my estimation. If you were on the list before now you are a longshot to win a title as I see it.

Call me crazy, but I'd have Houston no lower then 4th on an overall league list.

Agree that I'd have Memphis next at 8th though, same as you, I like them but they have some serious glaring weaknesses. TBH, I'd have Memphis lower then this overall if it were my own list. They are part of a very short list on mine on that hard to predict tip like Denver. I can easily see them anywhere from missing the playoffs with nothing but a super late lotto pick to show for it, all the way to the 4 seed in the West. My likely case for them is just about 50 wins though and somewhere around the 6 or 7 seed in the West.

The only thing I really disagree with you about in this post, is I don't see Memphis as a legit contender no matter how their season plays out W's and L's wise, as is. They'd need to make a big time sleeper move for me to bump them up to a contender. They are always a solid team that has a legit shot to make some noise in the post season, but I don't know if they even make it out of the 1st round last year if Griffin is truly healthy.

[HartfordWhalers]

i'm having a devil of a time picking my next team on the list. I think the remaining 8 are all contenders.

OKC
Houston
Memphis
Clippers
Indy
Miami
Chicago
BK

I'm guessing I'll put one of Memphis or Houston on the chopping block next, but, I hesitate because it looks like Memphis might sign Mo Williams and I hate putting Houston down too early because I think they will likely make a trade of some sort in a Asik for PF mold.

But, I'll probably go with Memphis. I like their team I just don't know that they have enough shooting. (although if the bring in Williams and give him run at SG like he did in LAC that is largely addressed. But it appears they want him as a backup PG).

Anyway, 8 legit contenders in my estimation. If you were on the list before now you are a longshot to win a title as I see it.

Call me crazy, but I'd have Houston no lower then 4th on an overall league list.

Agree that I'd have Memphis next at 8th though, same as you, I like them but they have some serious glaring weaknesses. TBH, I'd have Memphis lower then this overall if it were my own list. They are part of a very short list on mine on that hard to predict tip like Denver. I can easily see them anywhere from missing the playoffs with nothing but a super late lotto pick to show for it, all the way to the 4 seed in the West. My likely case for them is just about 50 wins though and somewhere around the 6 or 7 seed in the West.

The only thing I really disagree with you about in this post, is I don't see Memphis as a legit contender no matter how their season plays out W's and L's wise, as is. They'd need to make a big time sleeper move for me to bump them up to a contender. They are always a solid team that has a legit shot to make some noise in the post season, but I don't know if they even make it out of the 1st round last year if Griffin is truly healthy.

Agreed with all of that. Memphis will be a very competitive team, but not a contender.