Should Lin come off the bench?

[HotRocks34]

Lin doesn't do anything all that worthwhile to the starting lineup. He'd be fine from the bench. Much more room for error in limited minutes and weaker competition.

I totally disagree and reject any concept that Lin may "need" to face weaker competition.

When Lin was putting up big numbers in New York, he did so against starters. Not only did he do so against starters, he did so against specific defenses and defenders designed to stop him:

http://bit.ly/H4cbGr

The NBA’s defending champions treated the Knicks point guard like a force to be reckoned with, putting 6-foot-7 Shawn Marion, one of the league’s elite perimeter defenders, on Lin for most of the game, and frequently trying to double-team Lin off the pick-and-roll.

The Mavericks forced Lin into seven turnovers, but he finished with 28 points and 14 assists, and led the Knicks to a 104-97 win.

“We were trying to put pressure on him in certain areas,” said Marion, who finished with 14 points, seven rebounds, two assists and two steals. “I was able to get out there and get my hands on some passes and create problems, [but] he’s talented. I give him credit. … He works for it.”

Beverley has never faced anything like that attention. And his play is likely to decline should he receive that kind of attention.

Now, the idea that Lin "needs" to face weaker competition is ridiculous. Here are some of the numbers he put up as a starter.

New York
=========

25/05/07
28/02/08
23/04/10
38/04/07
Etc

Houston
========

38/03/07
22/04/08
21/04/08
22/01/05
29/06/08
24/01/08
24/02/06
Etc

Patrick Beverly has never scored more than 16 points in any NBA game.

Again, for people who don't watch Houston's games or are not familiar with Lin or his development, you may want to consider whether or not your want to comment on this subject.

Jeremy Lin is a young and understandably inconsistent player who has a ton of potential. We don't know what he is yet, as we have not seen him play a full, healthy season with significant minutes. We should know more soon.

Fantastic post

Thanks. As TSherkin knows, I have great respect for him and his knowledge of the game and statistics. I am not trying to respond to him personally, but rather to Lin Doubter Nation with TSherkin's posts as the vehicle for that response.

I can say with near-100% certainty that there is no one on RealGM's forums that knows Lin's game better than I do. Unless Jeremy or Daryl Morey is posting on these forums, that is. I have covered every single game Lin has played in for the last 100+ games, and often done one-hour-plus videos about every single game. I know just about everything there is to know about his game and his development, at least as far as I can know being that I am not in his inner circle and I am not an NBA-level coach or scout.

[Manitoba]

No, Manitoba, we don't "have" to use the favorable numbers because they represent a small sample. If he repeats them over the whole season, then that will be interesting but it bears repeating that with his turnover issues and low offensive production, he'll remain a low-effectiveness offensive player even at 55% TS.

In other words, you can't make your case for Lin's mediocrity unless you can dump some of his best stats (from Linsanity) while retainng some of his worst (from his injury recovery time last season). That should be a hint to you that your case is pretty weak.

Your argument for "small sample size" is also pretty weak. Remember, we have Linsanity too. Here are Lin's stats for 2011-12 and the two halves of last season:

All of 2011-12: games=35, FG% = 0.446, TS% = 0.552
First half of 2012-13: games=41, FG% = 0.428, TS% = 0.510
Last half of 2012-13: games=41, FG% = 0.454, TS% = 0.562

As you can see, the middle set of numbers (for the start of 2012-13), is really different from the other two sets. Which suggests that the middle set should be dumped as an outlier, one easily explained by Lin's knee operation. When we discard this set, we end up with a total of 76 games for a healthy and very productive Lin, which is not that small a sample size.

EDIT: revised first paragraph for clarity.

[Ronito]

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1261915&start=105#p36484881

[hayden]

RollingWave, SSS and shame on you for comparing him to Nash's half-season next to Kobe, where his efficacy was limited and driven by shooting ability Lin will never have. Not comparable.

20 games at the end of a season don't mean anything.

What about his 24.3% TOV in the playoffa, if you like small samples and the second half of the season? And his sterling 4 ppg on 32.2% TS? I wouldn't bring it up, but his defenders seem intent kn discussing meaningless samples, so..:

*last quarter of the season* don't mean anything.

[Manitoba]

I have fixed my previous message to make it clearer. You may want to read it again.

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1277532&p=37153999#p37153999

[tsherkin]

Yes, the last quarter of a season doesn't prove anything, hayden. Chicago fans watching Curry and Chandler know this. [insert team with young player everyone hopes reaches his potential]'s fans knows this.

Comparing Lin to Nash, branching back out, doesn't make sense because of the yawning chasm in shooting ability.

Yes, it's true that as you shoot more, your TOV%.

Of course it does, because you are using more possessions...

I'm going to stop responding to Manitoba because it's a waste of time.

HotRocks, I get what you're saying. Lin hasn't played a lot and has had some injuries, it's hard to get a bead on who he is. Right now, he's a marginally efficient player who has made improvements in his turnover rate but doesn't produce offense at a level which makes him super valuable.

I recognize that he's trended upward and shown both critical self-awareness and the ability to improve, and that he will be better than he is now. In all likelihood, he will end up a starting level player. What we saw last year wasn't worth it, which was my main point. We will see this year. He's not a brilliant playmaker, so he really needs to work on taking care of the ball as he goes to the rim, particularly out of the PnR. He isn't a good enough scorer to merit the sort of usage which would off-set his turnover issues at this stage, which is my concern. He's an on-ball guy who gives poor to mediocre possession return offensively.

He's going to have to develop as a ball-handler and scorer in order to justify his on-ball style over starter's minutes. We'll see how it goes.

[hayden]

Yes, the last quarter of a season doesn't prove anything, hayden. Chicago fans watching Curry and Chandler know this. [insert team with young player everyone hopes reaches his potential]'s fans knows this.

Comparing Lin to Nash, branching back out, doesn't make sense because of the yawning chasm in shooting ability.

Yes, it's true that as you shoot more, your TOV%.

Of course it does, because you are using more possessions...

I'm going to stop responding to Manitoba because it's a waste of time.

HotRocks, I get what you're saying. Lin hasn't played a lot and has had some injuries, it's hard to get a bead on who he is. Right now, he's a marginally efficient player who has made improvements in his turnover rate but doesn't produce offense at a level which makes him super valuable.

I recognize that he's trended upward and shown both critical self-awareness and the ability to improve, and that he will be better than he is now. In all likelihood, he will end up a starting level player. What we saw last year wasn't worth it, which was my main point. We will see this year. He's not a brilliant playmaker, so he really needs to work on taking care of the ball as he goes to the rim, particularly out of the PnR. He isn't a good enough scorer to merit the sort of usage which would off-set his turnover issues at this stage, which is my concern. He's an on-ball guy who gives poor to mediocre possession return offensively.

He's going to have to develop as a ball-handler and scorer in order to justify his on-ball style over starter's minutes. We'll see how it goes.

So, let me just get this straight, you don't think Lin should be a starting PG in the NBA? Or just that Beverly should start over Lin, or both?

[tsherkin]

So, let me just get this straight, you don't think Lin should be a starting PG in the NBA? Or just that Beverly should start over Lin, or both?

I don't believe he is a worthwhile proposition as a starter right now. Perhaps in time, but I'd prefer to bring him off the bench as first guard and develop him that way, then see how he responds.

[Novocaine]

I'd start Beverley. A strong defender starting the game to set the tone.

I think the Rockets best PG in the long-run is Canaan. If nothing changes, I expect him to be their starter next year.

[LarsV8]

I'd start Beverley. A strong defender starting the game to set the tone.

I think the Rockets best PG in the long-run is Canaan. If nothing changes, I expect him to be their starter next year.

He won't be.

Morey said on a radio interview this morning they don't expect Cannan to be able to contribute until the end of next year.

[hayden]

So, let me just get this straight, you don't think Lin should be a starting PG in the NBA? Or just that Beverly should start over Lin, or both?

I don't believe he is a worthwhile proposition as a starter right now. Perhaps in time, but I'd prefer to bring him off the bench as first guard and develop him that way, then see how he responds.

I definitely agree he has plenty of room to improve and has glaring weaknesses, but I suppose our main point of contention is that I feel he is a good enough playmaker/floor general as is, to start.

I mean, this guy was running with Omer Asik (whose stone hands probably cost Lin .5 TOs and +1 Asts per game... alone) and Patrick Patterson as his main bigs last year... not to mention splitting ball handling duties with James Harden. I feel most PGs will have their game negatively impacted by those circumstances.

I'd like to see him run with Dwight for a good stretch of games first before writing Lin off to the bench.

[Novocaine]

I'd start Beverley. A strong defender starting the game to set the tone.

I think the Rockets best PG in the long-run is Canaan. If nothing changes, I expect him to be their starter next year.

He won't be.

Morey said on a radio interview this morning they don't expect Cannan to be able to contribute until the end of next year.

We'll see. Not only Morey's expectations might be wrong, we don't know how sincere he is about them.

[tsherkin]

I definitely agree he has plenty of room to improve and has glaring weaknesses, but I suppose our main point of contention is that I feel he is a good enough playmaker/floor general as is, to start.

With Lin, at least for me, it's total offensive value. They don't need him in a major on-ball role and with his turnovers and mediocre scoring, he isn't worth it in that role anyway. They'd be better off with someone like Calderon or even Boobie Gibson.

Considering Lin's style of play and greatest efficacies, he just isn't good enough. He isn't a double-digit assits guy, he isn't a great shooter or scorer in general... He's a pretty marginal offensive player so far. He is effectively going into his third NBA season, but we know a good deal about him already, so we'll see.

I'd like to see him run with Dwight for a good stretch of games first before writing Lin off to the bench.

I don't think it'll matter that much; his greatest issues are before the pass and volume assist production isn't really the point.

I think it'd make more sense to stagger him off of Harden as much as possible so he has more freedom on the perimeter, especially with the bench, and see if the scouting report from the last 120 games or so holds. If it does, limit his minutes and possessions, because in his best season to date, he's been league average on O and that isn't worth it.

Lin over the last 22 games of the season, a largely useless sample due to size and timing (meanigless second-half surges abound every season) managed:

15.4 ppg and 5.8 apg on 11.8 FGA/g and in 30.9 mpg. 46.2% FG, 36.6% 3P (3.7 3GA/g), 79.1% FT (3.9/g).

56.7% TS, 0.7% ORB, 33.0% AST, 17.2% TOV and a 110 ORTG, but at an eFG% over 51% that he didn't even manage during Linsanity (and this year was his best 3pt shooting effort overall).


I am leery about projecting that 3P% forward, or that scoring efficiency in general. We'll see, but I like the minuts. 28-32 mpg is a good range, and clever rotations would render it irrelevant whether or not he actually started the game. My issue isn't starting, it's starter's minutes. ~ 30 mpg is pretty good for a player that limited but with the skills he's shown. I'd be constantly seeking his replacement, though.

[Tave]

So, let me just get this straight, you don't think Lin should be a starting PG in the NBA? Or just that Beverly should start over Lin, or both?

I don't believe he is a worthwhile proposition as a starter right now. Perhaps in time, but I'd prefer to bring him off the bench as first guard and develop him that way, then see how he responds.

For every Chris Paul and Derrick Rose, there's more:

Devin Harris
Kemba Walker
Jose Calderon
Brandon Jennings
George Hill
Mario Chalmers
Luke Ridnour
Raymond Felton
Jameer Nelson
Goran Dragic
Kyle Lowry

And so on and so forth. You are overestimating the amount of talent across all 30 teams. Lin is an average starter right now but no moreso than half the other starting PGs in the league. He's a great prospect with a good work ethic who can take over games. Given his upside I don't see benching him absent a viable replacement.

If half the teams in the league can't find a starting point appreciably better than Lin, what makes you think he doesn't deserve it?

[tsherkin]

The fact that teams put out mediocre PGs doesn't make it a good idea. Also keep in mind team structure, and what I said about minutes.

[hayden]

I definitely agree he has plenty of room to improve and has glaring weaknesses, but I suppose our main point of contention is that I feel he is a good enough playmaker/floor general as is, to start.

With Lin, at least for me, it's total offensive value. They don't need him in a major on-ball role and with his turnovers and mediocre scoring, he isn't worth it in that role anyway. They'd be better off with someone like Calderon or even Boobie Gibson.

Considering Lin's style of play and greatest efficacies, he just isn't good enough. He isn't a double-digit assits guy, he isn't a great shooter or scorer in general... He's a pretty marginal offensive player so far. He is effectively going into his third NBA season, but we know a good deal about him already, so we'll see.

I'd like to see him run with Dwight for a good stretch of games first before writing Lin off to the bench.

I don't think it'll matter that much; his greatest issues are before the pass and volume assist production isn't really the point.

I think it'd make more sense to stagger him off of Harden as much as possible so he has more freedom on the perimeter, especially with the bench, and see if the scouting report from the last 120 games or so holds. If it does, limit his minutes and possessions, because in his best season to date, he's been league average on O and that isn't worth it.

Lin over the last 22 games of the season, a largely useless sample due to size and timing (meanigless second-half surges abound every season) managed:

15.4 ppg and 5.8 apg on 11.8 FGA/g and in 30.9 mpg. 46.2% FG, 36.6% 3P (3.7 3GA/g), 79.1% FT (3.9/g).

56.7% TS, 0.7% ORB, 33.0% AST, 17.2% TOV and a 110 ORTG, but at an eFG% over 51% that he didn't even manage during Linsanity (and this year was his best 3pt shooting effort overall).


I am leery about projecting that 3P% forward, or that scoring efficiency in general. We'll see, but I like the minuts. 28-32 mpg is a good range, and clever rotations would render it irrelevant whether or not he actually started the game. My issue isn't starting, it's starter's minutes. ~ 30 mpg is pretty good for a player that limited but with the skills he's shown. I'd be constantly seeking his replacement, though.

I know you like to type a lot and appear objective in your argument, but the fact that you use double digit assists as a measuring stick for Lin makes your bias quite apparent. there was only ONE player last year who avged double digit assists and it was Rondo.

you really should just state you're not that big on Lin and you can't see him succeeding (despite of what he's already been able to do). I mean, I can't even begin to imagine what kind of blame you would put on Lin as a starting PG if the Rocket's played poorly last year. instead, despite being the starting PG for one of the highest scoring, most overachieving teams in the league, you still think he "isn't good enough." I mean, would the Rockets have made the finals or advanced if they had Jose Calderon or Daniel Gibson? lol

[tsherkin]

Don't bait me. I'm talking about volume playmaking, 10+ apg is just a convenient reference point. As far as offensive value, you need production if you are on-ball a lot. Lin isn't especially efficient and with that turnover rate and inefficiency, lacking scoring volume, volume assist production would be required to drive his offense.

He provides very little of what his style of play requires.

If you have something to contribute, go nuts; don't take uninformed, lazy potshots st me simply because I disagree with you.

[tsherkin]

I mean, would the Rockets have made the finals or advanced if they had Jose Calderon or Daniel Gibson? lol

No, of course not, but their O would have been better.

[hayden]

Don't bait me. I'm talking about volume playmaking, 10+ apg is just a convenient reference point. As far as offensive value, you need production if you are on-ball a lot. Lin isn't especially efficient and with that turnover rate and inefficiency, lacking scoring volume, volume assist production would be required to drive his offense.

He provides very little of what his style of play requires.

If you have something to contribute, go nuts; don't take uninformed, lazy potshots st me simply because I disagree with you.

Uninformed, lazy potshots? I pointed out that your "convenient reference point" for Lin was only achieved by one player last year. The only other player close was Paul, and after him the nearest is 8.0 apg. So, unless you think only the 2 best playmakers of this generation can be volume playmakers (whatever that means), how is it fair to measure Lin against that?

[tsherkin]

Mediocre low-volume scoring. High turnover rate unbalanced by high-volume assist output. This isn't a complicated issue. He was a poorly productive player on O.

If he keeps scoring as he did last year, low volume on average efficiency, he needs to counterbalance his ass-y turnover rate by operating at a higher level as a distribtor, or else he isn't a worthwhile player and a specialist would be a better choice. This is why Rondo, despite being a less effective scorer, is a more useful offensive player.

Lin is a PnR PG, but not a highly productive one. His style demands golume output as a scorer or distributor and he delivers neither, with other issues besides.

If your point is not your primary ball-handler (evidently so with Harden), then his value will usually come as a defender (not here) or spot-up shooter (waaaaay better options from specialists out there). Lin is providing offense that isn't worth big-time focus and would be better-suited being relegated to first scorer on the second unit.

You are overfocusing on double-digit assists. I don't give a crap if he specifically reaches 10+ apg, the point is tha his turnover rate isn't balanced by efficient scoring or high-volume assist output, either of which would be required to make him productive on O.