RealGM Top 25 Player Poll-#12 2018-19

[Saints14]

Um ok? So you don't like Kyrie as much as most. Fine. That doesn't prove that the poll is flawed, and for some reason guys like you and iggy think it does . What's "very true"? People are VOTING for Kyrie as THEIR _TOP_ person at #12 out of the 10 guys on the poll, and you're trying to tell me they wouldn't have him top 5 or 6???? I posted those numbers for a reason; I thought iggy was trying to claim Kyrie was getting more votes earlier by virtue of supposedly being put on earlier than he should've been. So I checked for myself, and again, he didn't really start getting anything until #9. It's not like he almost got considered the 5th best player in the league per the GB. He MIGHT not even get #12.

Also to the bolded parts, I've said Gobert + Draymond don't have any true advanced statistical advantage over Kyrie outside of RPM, which proves me that's all you're using. I'm well past having to tell you that I'm not taking that bait on it's own, and I'm venturing that most Celtics fans couldn't be bothered on arguing whether Kyrie's a top 15 player on the GB of all places, let alone based solely off ****ing RPM, which is why you're not seeing a lot of them.

You keep talking about only using RPM, while throwing out stats like BPM/WS/VORP/PER as if they make distinct cases for Kyrie as a top 10 player. The above stats are all box-score based and have only slightly variation on each other, while RPM/RAPM are +/- based, so it's an entirely different argument. So it's not it just one stat, but an entire statistical framework that doesn't rate Kyrie as a top 25 player.

Are we allowed to change our vote if the guy we voted for is clearly out of contention?

Poll allows it, I don't see why not. I have.

Ok, I changed to Jokic then. Was really close on him vs Draymond in the first place anyways.

[ITYSL]

BPM and VORP are the exact same stat. It’s like WS and WS/48. And all those stats that rate Kyrie highly have something in common. They’re all purely box score stats. Their only inputs are points, rebounds, FG%, assists, blocks, steals, etc. You can’t gather a good picture of someone’s defense from boxscore stats. It’s just impossible. 90% of what makes a good defender is completely invisible to box score stats.

Things like RPM, RAPM, and raw plus/minus are a different category of stat altogether. These are called impact stats because they measure how the team’s performance is impacted when the player’s on the floor compared to on the bench. Impact stats, pretty much without fail tend to rate Kyrie much lower than boxscore stats since they can “see” how he’s hurting the defense by how much worse that defense performs when he’s in the game. That’s why those stats which might still rate Kyrie highly as an offensive player only, rate him much lower when accounting for his defense as well, something that WS and BPM have no mechanism to judge accurately even if they claim to have a defensive component.

The Celtics regular season win percentage did go down 6% with Kyrie (equivalent to one less win), but given how well they performed in the playoffs I’d say their overall performance after he was injured was probably more impressive than what they did with him earlier in the season. I’ll take 14-8 regular season, beating the Bucks, beating the red-hit Sixers in 5 and taking the Cavs to 7 over going 41–19 in the regular season.

OK. Really, though, my point stands. RPM is an untested and undocumented stat put out by a company, ESPN, that has put out similarly untested, undocumented advanced stats in other sports (NFL QBR). While I am absolutely OK with looking at RPM as one of the advanced stats, it is not the end-all, be-all of stats, and to rely solely on it to dismiss Irving's impact is foolish. Irving is top 10 in multiple advanced stats, but 45th in RPM - a stat that had Covington as top 10 last season and had PGs such as Tyus Jones, Fred VanVleet and Spencer Dinwiddle ahead of Irving. Those type of glaring outliers should give pause to anyone who feels the need to rely solely on that single stat to make an argument for or against a player.

My point also stands regarding win% and NetRtg, the latter of which you didn't address following your initial erroneous statement. You were wrong about those regarding Irving and Jokic.

I was talking about the average of the 2 years with Jokic and Irving, but double-checking it, you’re right, Kyrie is slightly higher. Don’t know how I got that mixed up. Still the point stands though that if a lottery team is only 0.4 points per 48 minutes worse with Jokic on the floor than a conference finals team is with Kyrie on the floor that Jokic’s performance is obviously much more impressive.

As for RPM, forget about it if you want. Here’s how the top contenders rank in RAPM which has nothing to do with ESPN. This is just simply looking at how much they affect their team’s point differential with no confusing box score priors:

Victor Oladipo: +4.017 (10th)
Nikola Jokic: +3.778 (12th)
Draymond Green: +2.428 (40th)
Kyrie Irving: +0.644 (184th)

These results have less priors to smooth things out and are gonna be much noisier as they’re just looking at the year’s on/off data. As you see though, the pattern that Kyrie affects the game much less than his box score data would say holds true. For the record, that’s only regular season data. In the playoffs, Draymond Green ranks 2nd overall while Oladipo ranks 14th.

OK, thanks. Yet RPM is built off RAPM, and RAPM also has significant outliers. Here are the top 20 in RAPM in order (my bolding):
Robert Covington
Stephen Curry
Eric Gordon
Joel Embiid
Chris Paul
Damian Lillard
Jimmy Butler
Otto Porter Jr.
Victor Oladipo
Jrue Holiday
Fred VanVleet
LaMarcus Aldridge
Royce O'Neale
Tyus Jones
Donovan Mitchell
Karl-Anthony Towns
Kemba Walker
James Harden
Russell Westbrook
OG Anunoby

I'd consider at least seven of the top 20 in RAPM to be outliers - that is, players ranked in the top 20 who I don't think anyone would consider a top 20 player. You could arguably add KAT in there and maybe others, but there are 7 definite outliers out of the top 20. It doesn't pass the smell test for me.

Meanwhile, here is the top 20 for BPM for all players with at least 1,000 minutes played:
James Harden
LeBron James
Stephen Curry
Russell Westbrook
Nikola Jokic
Chris Paul
Damian Lillard
Kyrie Irving
Kyle Lowry
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Kevin Durant
DeMarcus Cousins
Andre Drummond
Karl-Anthony Towns
Anthony Davis
Jimmy Butler
Victor Oladipo
Ben Simmons
Kyle O'Quinn
Rudy Gobert

Only one glaring outlier out of the top 20. So yeah, I prefer BPM as an overall advanced stat, though I think it's wise to look at several, in addition to the eye test, when evaluating players.

[yoyoboy]

Honestly at this point I hope Kyrie wins just so we can get it out of the way and have some good logical and analytical arguments about Draymond vs Oladipo vs Jokic vs Gobert, etc. I still have yet to hear one convincing, non narrative based argument for Kyrie being the 12th best player in the league. And basing the entirety of the case for him off of his BPM, WS, ORTG, PER, etc, as if he’s getting a check mark for each one of those stats and then happens to be held back just a little by RPM (really it’s not just RPM, it’s all the impact data) so you take away a point from him there makes no sense. The impact numbers are just as significant as the box score data, if not more so.

PER, BPM, WS, ORTG...anyone who knows the calculations for these stats realizes they’re basically saying the same thing. They incorporate elements from the box-score and come up with an all-in-one value for how good that player is. Each one of those stats places different weights on the different stats they utilize, but really by referencing each metric you’re not saying different things and making different arguments. It’s almost like saying “Harden is so good because he scores 30.4 points per game, 30.9 points per 36, 42.3 points per 100 possessions, he shoots on 86% FT, he attempts 10 threes per game and hits on nearly 37% of them...etc.” Yes, they all have merit, but the point is you’re not taking a very holistic view at all and the box score is only part of the story. When there’s a clear disconnect between the box score and the impact data, we have to ask why? Why, season after season, does Kyrie consistently underperform in these metrics when similarly ranked guys like Draymond, Oladipo, Gobert, Jokic, and Lillard manage to put up both impressive box score numbers that are somewhere between 75% as good as Kyrie’s to as good as his, but then with impact data that’s twice as good and essentially at the top of the league while Kyrie’s rank pretty close to neutral - slightly above average?

Is it because the formulas hate him? Did the creators decide that they would intentionally devise it in such a way that Kyrie won’t be given proper credit? Or is it potentially possible that some of the things that don’t show up in the box score (defense, setting screens, off ball movement, decision making and initiating the offense outside of direct assists) happen to be weak points for Kyrie? I personally think the impact numbers underrate Kyrie a bit because he’s played with LeBron and under Stevens during his prime when the data is being used, and both are elite enough as a player/coach to keep the team afloat without Kyrie in a manner other teams wouldn’t if they lost a player like Kyrie. However, the box score numbers definitely overrate him and the truth is he’s somewhere in the middle as a player.

And trying to dismiss RAPM and other impact stats because “they show Covington, Otto Porter, and FVV as top 15 players” is absurd and really sheds light on how little some people know about how these stats are supposed to be applied. These aren’t rankings of the top players in the league meant to be taken at face value. They’re role dependent and so guys like Covington and Porter and FVV who play more limited roles (catch and shoot and defend, bench unit playmaker) while amazing in those roles as shown by the lineup data aren’t truly providing superstar impact because they don’t bare as much responsibility. But even when you compare Kyrie to guys in similar roles to him (lead offensive options/playmakers) he falls way, way short in comparison and that’s important.

[bondom34]

I'm hoping those using BPM as an argument aren't also saying Jokic is a poor defender, or Lillard is worse than Kyrie. Because Lillard's BPM is greater than Kyrie's and Jokic a top 20 defender.

[iggymcfrack]

OK. Really, though, my point stands. RPM is an untested and undocumented stat put out by a company, ESPN, that has put out similarly untested, undocumented advanced stats in other sports (NFL QBR). While I am absolutely OK with looking at RPM as one of the advanced stats, it is not the end-all, be-all of stats, and to rely solely on it to dismiss Irving's impact is foolish. Irving is top 10 in multiple advanced stats, but 45th in RPM - a stat that had Covington as top 10 last season and had PGs such as Tyus Jones, Fred VanVleet and Spencer Dinwiddle ahead of Irving. Those type of glaring outliers should give pause to anyone who feels the need to rely solely on that single stat to make an argument for or against a player.

My point also stands regarding win% and NetRtg, the latter of which you didn't address following your initial erroneous statement. You were wrong about those regarding Irving and Jokic.

I was talking about the average of the 2 years with Jokic and Irving, but double-checking it, you’re right, Kyrie is slightly higher. Don’t know how I got that mixed up. Still the point stands though that if a lottery team is only 0.4 points per 48 minutes worse with Jokic on the floor than a conference finals team is with Kyrie on the floor that Jokic’s performance is obviously much more impressive.

As for RPM, forget about it if you want. Here’s how the top contenders rank in RAPM which has nothing to do with ESPN. This is just simply looking at how much they affect their team’s point differential with no confusing box score priors:

Victor Oladipo: +4.017 (10th)
Nikola Jokic: +3.778 (12th)
Draymond Green: +2.428 (40th)
Kyrie Irving: +0.644 (184th)

These results have less priors to smooth things out and are gonna be much noisier as they’re just looking at the year’s on/off data. As you see though, the pattern that Kyrie affects the game much less than his box score data would say holds true. For the record, that’s only regular season data. In the playoffs, Draymond Green ranks 2nd overall while Oladipo ranks 14th.

OK, thanks. Yet RPM is built off RAPM, and RAPM also has significant outliers. Here are the top 20 in RAPM in order (my bolding):
Robert Covington
Stephen Curry
Eric Gordon
Joel Embiid
Chris Paul
Damian Lillard
Jimmy Butler
Otto Porter Jr.
Victor Oladipo
Jrue Holiday
Fred VanVleet
LaMarcus Aldridge
Royce O'Neale
Tyus Jones
Donovan Mitchell
Karl-Anthony Towns
Kemba Walker
James Harden
Russell Westbrook
OG Anunoby

I'd consider at least seven of the top 20 in RAPM to be outliers - that is, players ranked in the top 20 who I don't think anyone would consider a top 20 player. You could arguably add KAT in there and maybe others, but there are 7 definite outliers out of the top 20. It doesn't pass the smell test for me.

Meanwhile, here is the top 20 for BPM for all players with at least 1,000 minutes played:
James Harden
LeBron James
Stephen Curry
Russell Westbrook
Nikola Jokic
Chris Paul
Damian Lillard
Kyrie Irving
Kyle Lowry
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Kevin Durant
DeMarcus Cousins
Andre Drummond
Karl-Anthony Towns
Anthony Davis
Jimmy Butler
Victor Oladipo
Ben Simmons
Kyle O'Quinn
Rudy Gobert

Only one glaring outlier out of the top 20. So yeah, I prefer BPM as an overall advanced stat, though I think it's wise to look at several, in addition to the eye test, when evaluating players.

Yes, I mentioned that it’s a noisy stat. When looking at just one year’s data, you can’t read too much into minute differences. The point is that year after year, Kyrie continually ranks low in all impact stats which suggests that his defense really is a major negative and at the very least you need to adjust for that if you’re going to use stats that don’t know how to account for it.

Again, BPM is not an impact stat at all and plus-minus is not included at all anywhere except the name. The defensive component of it is utter garbage. It ranks Russell Westbrook as one of the best defensive players in the league just because he gets a lot of rebounds and assists. Since it has no way to actually measure defense, it fits well with peoples pre-conceived notions which are largely just offensive rankings anyway.

Players like Robert Covington and Otto Porter ranking highly in impact stats are really a lot less inaccurate results than they would seem. They’re 2 of the 5 top wing defenders in the entire league, and they’re both positive on offense. If the top defenders in the league consistently improve their defense as much as the second tier offensive players impact their offense, then maybe they just are that valuable. I don’t actually think Covington or Porter are Top 10 players in the league, but I do think both are more valuable to a winning team than Kyrie Irving.

[3Diamantidis]

Jokic should have been in the top10 already.

[ITYSL]

Honestly at this point I hope Kyrie wins just so we can get it out of the way and have some good logical and analytical arguments about Draymond vs Oladipo vs Jokic vs Gobert, etc. I still have yet to hear one convincing, non narrative based argument for Kyrie being the 12th best player in the league. And basing the entirety of the case for him off of his BPM, WS, ORTG, PER, etc, as if he’s getting a check mark for each one of those stats and then happens to be held back just a little by RPM (really it’s not just RPM, it’s all the impact data) so you take away a point from him there makes no sense. The impact numbers are just as significant as the box score data, if not more so.

PER, BPM, WS, ORTG...anyone who knows the calculations for these stats realizes they’re basically saying the same thing. They incorporate elements from the box-score and come up with an all-in-one value for how good that player is. Each one of those stats places different weights on the different stats they utilize, but really by referencing each metric you’re not saying different things and making different arguments. It’s almost like saying “Harden is so good because he scores 30.4 points per game, 30.9 points per 36, 42.3 points per 100 possessions, he shoots on 86% FT, he attempts 10 threes per game and hits on nearly 37% of them...etc.” Yes, they all have merit, but the point is you’re not taking a very holistic view at all and the box score is only part of the story. When there’s a clear disconnect between the box score and the impact data, we have to ask why? Why, season after season, does Kyrie consistently underperform in these metrics when similarly ranked guys like Draymond, Oladipo, Gobert, Jokic, and Lillard manage to put up both impressive box score numbers that are somewhere between 75% as good as Kyrie’s to as good as his, but then with impact data that’s twice as good and essentially at the top of the league while Kyrie’s rank pretty close to neutral - slightly above average?

Is it because the formulas hate him? Did the creators decide that they would intentionally devise it in such a way that Kyrie won’t be given proper credit? Or is it potentially possible that some of the things that don’t show up in the box score (defense, setting screens, off ball movement, decision making and initiating the offense outside of direct assists) happen to be weak points for Kyrie? I personally think the impact numbers underrate Kyrie a bit because he’s played with LeBron and under Stevens during his prime when the data is being used, and both are elite enough as a player/coach to keep the team afloat without Kyrie in a manner other teams wouldn’t if they lost a player like Kyrie. However, the box score numbers definitely overrate him and the truth is he’s somewhere in the middle as a player.

And trying to dismiss RAPM and other impact stats because “they show Covington, Otto Porter, and FVV as top 15 players” is absurd and really sheds light on how little some people know about how these stats are supposed to be applied. These aren’t rankings of the top players in the league meant to be taken at face value. They’re role dependent and so guys like Covington and Porter and FVV who play more limited roles (catch and shoot and defend, bench unit playmaker) while amazing in those roles as shown by the lineup data aren’t truly providing superstar impact because they don’t bare as much responsibility. But even when you compare Kyrie to guys in similar roles to him (lead offensive options/playmakers) he falls way, way short in comparison and that’s important.

Not sure how on one hand you can cite Kyrie's RPM ranking to argue that he's not the 12th best player, but on the other hand argue that you cant use RPM as a ranking stat when someone points out outliers ranked highly by RPM.

You have one poster comparing RPMs of a score-first PG to a center, different players of different positions with different roles. And you And1 him repeatedly. But when someone points out that Covington is ranked highly by RPM and was #1 in RAPM last season, all of the sudden roles matter and you shouldnt compare him to Irving. All three were starters who played similar MPG, so it's inconsistent to compare two of them by RPM but complain when someone else compares two of them by RPM.

It's actually hilarious that people would be this up in arms about Kyrie being voted the 12th best player, to the point where at least one poster changed his vote from a third person to Jokic to, I dont know, win the "contest" or whatever. All good, though. To each his own.

[Jadoogar]

People really underrating Irving just because they don't like him (i also don't like him). He's amazing and his lack of defense is not as big a concern as Jokic just due to his position. He can be the centre of your offense and has already shown he can get it done on the big stage.

[ITYSL]

I was talking about the average of the 2 years with Jokic and Irving, but double-checking it, you’re right, Kyrie is slightly higher. Don’t know how I got that mixed up. Still the point stands though that if a lottery team is only 0.4 points per 48 minutes worse with Jokic on the floor than a conference finals team is with Kyrie on the floor that Jokic’s performance is obviously much more impressive.

As for RPM, forget about it if you want. Here’s how the top contenders rank in RAPM which has nothing to do with ESPN. This is just simply looking at how much they affect their team’s point differential with no confusing box score priors:

Victor Oladipo: +4.017 (10th)
Nikola Jokic: +3.778 (12th)
Draymond Green: +2.428 (40th)
Kyrie Irving: +0.644 (184th)

These results have less priors to smooth things out and are gonna be much noisier as they’re just looking at the year’s on/off data. As you see though, the pattern that Kyrie affects the game much less than his box score data would say holds true. For the record, that’s only regular season data. In the playoffs, Draymond Green ranks 2nd overall while Oladipo ranks 14th.

OK, thanks. Yet RPM is built off RAPM, and RAPM also has significant outliers. Here are the top 20 in RAPM in order (my bolding):
Robert Covington
Stephen Curry
Eric Gordon
Joel Embiid
Chris Paul
Damian Lillard
Jimmy Butler
Otto Porter Jr.
Victor Oladipo
Jrue Holiday
Fred VanVleet
LaMarcus Aldridge
Royce O'Neale
Tyus Jones
Donovan Mitchell
Karl-Anthony Towns
Kemba Walker
James Harden
Russell Westbrook
OG Anunoby

I'd consider at least seven of the top 20 in RAPM to be outliers - that is, players ranked in the top 20 who I don't think anyone would consider a top 20 player. You could arguably add KAT in there and maybe others, but there are 7 definite outliers out of the top 20. It doesn't pass the smell test for me.

Meanwhile, here is the top 20 for BPM for all players with at least 1,000 minutes played:
James Harden
LeBron James
Stephen Curry
Russell Westbrook
Nikola Jokic
Chris Paul
Damian Lillard
Kyrie Irving
Kyle Lowry
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Kevin Durant
DeMarcus Cousins
Andre Drummond
Karl-Anthony Towns
Anthony Davis
Jimmy Butler
Victor Oladipo
Ben Simmons
Kyle O'Quinn
Rudy Gobert

Only one glaring outlier out of the top 20. So yeah, I prefer BPM as an overall advanced stat, though I think it's wise to look at several, in addition to the eye test, when evaluating players.

Yes, I mentioned that it’s a noisy stat. When looking at just one year’s data, you can’t read too much into minute differences. The point is that year after year, Kyrie continually ranks low in all impact stats which suggests that his defense really is a major negative and at the very least you need to adjust for that if you’re going to use stats that don’t know how to account for it.

Again, BPM is not an impact stat at all and plus-minus is not included at all anywhere except the name. The defensive component of it is utter garbage. It ranks Russell Westbrook as one of the best defensive players in the league just because he gets a lot of rebounds and assists. Since it has no way to actually measure defense, it fits well with peoples pre-conceived notions which are largely just offensive rankings anyway.

Players like Robert Covington and Otto Porter ranking highly in impact stats are really a lot less inaccurate results than they would seem. They’re 2 of the 5 top wing defenders in the entire league, and they’re both positive on offense. If the top defenders in the league consistently improve their defense as much as the second tier offensive players impact their offense, then maybe they just are that valuable. I don’t actually think Covington or Porter are Top 10 players in the league, but I do think both are more valuable to a winning team than Kyrie Irving.

Yeah I'd say it's a noisy stat. Maybe it's unwise to cite a player's RPM ranking as your primary support for or against a player, as you have done repeatedly in this thread, if it's such a noisy stat that you need to factor out more than one-third of the players in that ranking (7 out of the top 20) in order to make it less noisy.

[iggymcfrack]

OK, thanks. Yet RPM is built off RAPM, and RAPM also has significant outliers. Here are the top 20 in RAPM in order (my bolding):
Robert Covington
Stephen Curry
Eric Gordon
Joel Embiid
Chris Paul
Damian Lillard
Jimmy Butler
Otto Porter Jr.
Victor Oladipo
Jrue Holiday
Fred VanVleet
LaMarcus Aldridge
Royce O'Neale
Tyus Jones
Donovan Mitchell
Karl-Anthony Towns
Kemba Walker
James Harden
Russell Westbrook
OG Anunoby

I'd consider at least seven of the top 20 in RAPM to be outliers - that is, players ranked in the top 20 who I don't think anyone would consider a top 20 player. You could arguably add KAT in there and maybe others, but there are 7 definite outliers out of the top 20. It doesn't pass the smell test for me.

Meanwhile, here is the top 20 for BPM for all players with at least 1,000 minutes played:
James Harden
LeBron James
Stephen Curry
Russell Westbrook
Nikola Jokic
Chris Paul
Damian Lillard
Kyrie Irving
Kyle Lowry
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Kevin Durant
DeMarcus Cousins
Andre Drummond
Karl-Anthony Towns
Anthony Davis
Jimmy Butler
Victor Oladipo
Ben Simmons
Kyle O'Quinn
Rudy Gobert

Only one glaring outlier out of the top 20. So yeah, I prefer BPM as an overall advanced stat, though I think it's wise to look at several, in addition to the eye test, when evaluating players.

Yes, I mentioned that it’s a noisy stat. When looking at just one year’s data, you can’t read too much into minute differences. The point is that year after year, Kyrie continually ranks low in all impact stats which suggests that his defense really is a major negative and at the very least you need to adjust for that if you’re going to use stats that don’t know how to account for it.

Again, BPM is not an impact stat at all and plus-minus is not included at all anywhere except the name. The defensive component of it is utter garbage. It ranks Russell Westbrook as one of the best defensive players in the league just because he gets a lot of rebounds and assists. Since it has no way to actually measure defense, it fits well with peoples pre-conceived notions which are largely just offensive rankings anyway.

Players like Robert Covington and Otto Porter ranking highly in impact stats are really a lot less inaccurate results than they would seem. They’re 2 of the 5 top wing defenders in the entire league, and they’re both positive on offense. If the top defenders in the league consistently improve their defense as much as the second tier offensive players impact their offense, then maybe they just are that valuable. I don’t actually think Covington or Porter are Top 10 players in the league, but I do think both are more valuable to a winning team than Kyrie Irving.

Yeah I'd say it's a noisy stat. Maybe it's unwise to cite a player's RPM ranking as your primary support for or against a player, as you have done repeatedly in this thread, if it's such a noisy stat that you need to factor out more than one-third of the players in that ranking (7 out of the top 20) in order to make it less noisy.

That was RAPM which I only cited once as an additional form of evidence for people who don’t like RPM because it’s made by ESPN and doesn’t publicly disclose their exact formula. Here are the Top 20 by RPM wins last year:

1. Harden
2. Bron
3. Westbrook
4. Anthony Davis
5. Oladipo
6. Covington
7. Jokic
8. Lillard
9. Lowry
10. Towns
11. Jrue
12. Giannis
13. Butler
14. Porter
15. Kemba
16. CP3
17. George
18. Dray
19. Steph
20. Simmons

Seems like a pretty reasonable list. RPM overrates Covington a bit, but the general public underrates him even more. He’s probably a Top 30-40 player in the league. His defense is about as valuable as Kyrie’s offense and his offense is much better than Kyrie’s defense.

[PierceFan4ever]

Yes, I mentioned that it’s a noisy stat. When looking at just one year’s data, you can’t read too much into minute differences. The point is that year after year, Kyrie continually ranks low in all impact stats which suggests that his defense really is a major negative and at the very least you need to adjust for that if you’re going to use stats that don’t know how to account for it.

Again, BPM is not an impact stat at all and plus-minus is not included at all anywhere except the name. The defensive component of it is utter garbage. It ranks Russell Westbrook as one of the best defensive players in the league just because he gets a lot of rebounds and assists. Since it has no way to actually measure defense, it fits well with peoples pre-conceived notions which are largely just offensive rankings anyway.

Players like Robert Covington and Otto Porter ranking highly in impact stats are really a lot less inaccurate results than they would seem. They’re 2 of the 5 top wing defenders in the entire league, and they’re both positive on offense. If the top defenders in the league consistently improve their defense as much as the second tier offensive players impact their offense, then maybe they just are that valuable. I don’t actually think Covington or Porter are Top 10 players in the league, but I do think both are more valuable to a winning team than Kyrie Irving.

Yeah I'd say it's a noisy stat. Maybe it's unwise to cite a player's RPM ranking as your primary support for or against a player, as you have done repeatedly in this thread, if it's such a noisy stat that you need to factor out more than one-third of the players in that ranking (7 out of the top 20) in order to make it less noisy.

That was RAPM which I only cited once as an additional form of evidence for people who don’t like RPM because it’s made by ESPN and doesn’t publicly disclose their exact formula. Here are the Top 20 by RPM wins last year:

1. Harden
2. Bron
3. Westbrook
4. Anthony Davis
5. Oladipo
6. Covington
7. Jokic
8. Lillard
9. Lowry
10. Towns
11. Jrue
12. Giannis
13. Butler
14. Porter
15. Kemba
16. CP3
17. George
18. Dray
19. Steph
20. Simmons

Seems like a pretty reasonable list. RPM overrates Covington a bit, but the general public underrates him even more. He’s probably a Top 30-40 player in the league. His defense is about as valuable as Kyrie’s offense and his offense is much better than Kyrie’s defense.

Yeah Steph Curry is around the 20th best player in the league..There’s always some stats that favor one player moreso than the other. And lmao at Covington’s defense being as valuable as Kyrie’s offense. That’s a flat out joke. If that’s the case, then why did Simmons, Embiid, Covington and the rest of the Sixers lose to the undermanned Celtics in a short 5 games series? Covington was trash in that second round on both ends. Tatum had him going to the ground in the playoffs. Dude is overrated if you think of him that highly.

[GeorgeMarcus]

People really underrating Irving just because they don't like him (i also don't like him). He's amazing and his lack of defense is not as big a concern as Jokic just due to his position. He can be the centre of your offense and has already shown he can get it done on the big stage.

I personally rate Jokic higher but I have no problem with someone who disagrees on that. What I do have a problem with is the laughable disparity between Kyrie/Lillard in this poll when there is basically nothing that points to Kyrie being better.

[THE J0KER]

62:61

But a win is a win

I still think that people underrating here projected improvement of Jokic and Embiid next season. At least one of this two young centers will be for sure TOP10 player next season.

[nolang1]

Yeah I'd say it's a noisy stat. Maybe it's unwise to cite a player's RPM ranking as your primary support for or against a player, as you have done repeatedly in this thread, if it's such a noisy stat that you need to factor out more than one-third of the players in that ranking (7 out of the top 20) in order to make it less noisy.

That was RAPM which I only cited once as an additional form of evidence for people who don’t like RPM because it’s made by ESPN and doesn’t publicly disclose their exact formula. Here are the Top 20 by RPM wins last year:

1. Harden
2. Bron
3. Westbrook
4. Anthony Davis
5. Oladipo
6. Covington
7. Jokic
8. Lillard
9. Lowry
10. Towns
11. Jrue
12. Giannis
13. Butler
14. Porter
15. Kemba
16. CP3
17. George
18. Dray
19. Steph
20. Simmons

Seems like a pretty reasonable list. RPM overrates Covington a bit, but the general public underrates him even more. He’s probably a Top 30-40 player in the league. His defense is about as valuable as Kyrie’s offense and his offense is much better than Kyrie’s defense.

Yeah Steph Curry is around the 20th best player in the league..There’s always some stats that favor one player moreso than the other. And lmao at Covington’s defense being as valuable as Kyrie’s offense. That’s a flat out joke. If that’s the case, then why did Simmons, Embiid, Covington and the rest of the Sixers lose to the undermanned Celtics in a short 5 games series? Covington was trash in that second round on both ends. Tatum had him going to the ground in the playoffs. Dude is overrated if you think of him that highly.

RPM wins factors in minutes played, so yes it does make sense for Curry to be 19th in that measure when he played 51 games.

[ProcessDoctor]

That was RAPM which I only cited once as an additional form of evidence for people who don’t like RPM because it’s made by ESPN and doesn’t publicly disclose their exact formula. Here are the Top 20 by RPM wins last year:

1. Harden
2. Bron
3. Westbrook
4. Anthony Davis
5. Oladipo
6. Covington
7. Jokic
8. Lillard
9. Lowry
10. Towns
11. Jrue
12. Giannis
13. Butler
14. Porter
15. Kemba
16. CP3
17. George
18. Dray
19. Steph
20. Simmons

Seems like a pretty reasonable list. RPM overrates Covington a bit, but the general public underrates him even more. He’s probably a Top 30-40 player in the league. His defense is about as valuable as Kyrie’s offense and his offense is much better than Kyrie’s defense.

Yeah Steph Curry is around the 20th best player in the league..There’s always some stats that favor one player moreso than the other. And lmao at Covington’s defense being as valuable as Kyrie’s offense. That’s a flat out joke. If that’s the case, then why did Simmons, Embiid, Covington and the rest of the Sixers lose to the undermanned Celtics in a short 5 games series? Covington was trash in that second round on both ends. Tatum had him going to the ground in the playoffs. Dude is overrated if you think of him that highly.

RPM wins factors in minutes played, so yes it does make sense for Curry to be 19th in that measure when he played 51 games.

Exactly, should just look at RPM or RAPM instead of wins. Those don't change based on # of games played.

[Soulcatcher33]

People really underrating Irving just because they don't like him (i also don't like him). He's amazing and his lack of defense is not as big a concern as Jokic just due to his position. He can be the centre of your offense and has already shown he can get it done on the big stage.

The only problem with this is Jokic isn't even a bad defensive player. Nice try, though.

[Soulcatcher33]

People really underrating Irving just because they don't like him (i also don't like him). He's amazing and his lack of defense is not as big a concern as Jokic just due to his position. He can be the centre of your offense and has already shown he can get it done on the big stage.

I personally rate Jokic higher but I have no problem with someone who disagrees on that. What I do have a problem with is the laughable disparity between Kyrie/Lillard in this poll when there is basically nothing that points to Kyrie being better.

The difference is one guy is a lot more popular than the other. That's it.

[BoogieToThaBrow]

If there were 2 expansion teams, one got Kyrie, one got Draymond, then the rest of the players were chosen out of teams pine riders you'd have to take team Kyrie to win a 7 game series. Draymond benefits too much from the players around him. Teams, as a strategy, leave him wide open and dare him to shoot 3's. Hes not very good on the dribble drive. Hes just not a star in the same way Kyrie is. For me it's Kyrie over Draymond all day.

And that's where I just disagree. And I think it come's from people's tendency to think of offense first, second, and third before they really take into account defense. Others benefit from Draymond far more than Draymond benefits from those around him. It's just very strange to me to think that a guy who's DPOY level and is capable of being the lead distributor on a GOAT level team...

2016: 65.0 passes per game (#1 on team, #4 in the league), 7.4 assists per game (#1 on team, #7 in the league), #1 offense GSW
2017: 62.2 passes per game (#1 on team, #6 in the league), 7.0 assists per game (#1 on team, #9 in the league), #1 offense GSW
2018: 63.8 passes per game (#1 on team, #4 in the league), 7.3 assists per game (#1 on team, #7 in the league), #3 offense GSW

...benefits "too much" from others. Just to bring up again what I posted on the last page, in the past 4 playoffs without BOTH Curry and Durant, in a 522 minute sample size, here are Draymond's individual numbers and the Warriors' performance:

Averages Per 36: 15.2 points / 10.3 rebounds / 7.0 assists / 53% TS
Minutes Played: 522
Warriors ORTG: 110.5
Warriors DRTG: 99.8
Warriors Net Rating: +10.7

Do I have to take out Klay Thompson, too? Is Draymond not allowed to have any good players on his team for his contributions to be recognized? Again, the guy leads the entire league in playoff RAPM (2014-2018) at +7.29. He consistently finishes at the top of the league in RAPM and all impact metrics season after season. Is this a coincidence or is it possible that there's much more to the game than volume scoring, which happens to be the only part of the game that Green isn't excellent at. And in the playoffs since 2015 he's averaged 13.3 ppg on 54% TS, which is league average efficiency and most likely above average in the postseason. So you're talking about a guy who's not even a bad scorer while being elite at everything else and yet he's widely not viewed as a top 15 player.

Kyrie was the second best player on a title winner and yet we don't say that it doesn't count because he "benefits too much" from LeBron and Kevin Love, so why do we say the same about Draymond who's been the second best player on a title winner and at worst the third best player for two other titles?

Statistically the best playoff player in the league, not even in the conversation for Finals MVP. Not once. I'm sorry man, I get that Draymond has great advanced stats, but he's not a star player and certainly not 12th best in the league.

[nolang1]

Yeah Steph Curry is around the 20th best player in the league..There’s always some stats that favor one player moreso than the other. And lmao at Covington’s defense being as valuable as Kyrie’s offense. That’s a flat out joke. If that’s the case, then why did Simmons, Embiid, Covington and the rest of the Sixers lose to the undermanned Celtics in a short 5 games series? Covington was trash in that second round on both ends. Tatum had him going to the ground in the playoffs. Dude is overrated if you think of him that highly.

RPM wins factors in minutes played, so yes it does make sense for Curry to be 19th in that measure when he played 51 games.

Exactly, should just look at RPM or RAPM instead of wins. Those don't change based on # of games played.

I think the context here would be that a common criticism of Jokic is that per minute/possession numbers overrate his standing in the league since his conditioning has been poor and he simply can't play as many minutes as someone like Westbrook. Looking at RPM wins shows that even when you factor in minutes played he still does pretty well.

[Soulcatcher33]

RPM wins factors in minutes played, so yes it does make sense for Curry to be 19th in that measure when he played 51 games.

Exactly, should just look at RPM or RAPM instead of wins. Those don't change based on # of games played.

I think the context here would be that a common criticism of Jokic is that per minute/possession numbers overrate his standing in the league since his conditioning has been poor and he simply can't play as many minutes as someone like Westbrook. Looking at RPM wins shows that even when you factor in minutes played he still does pretty well.

Can't really see how that is even a big criticism anymore. He played 32.5mpg this past season which was good for 49th in the league. Nobody plays big heavy minutes anymore. Lebron led the league at only 36.9mpg.